1. Drought has a significant impact on the health and wellbeing of watershed residents.
Being proactive can limit the social impacts to individuals, families and communities
Drought adaptation is defined as actions society takes to reduce the social, economic
and environmental vulnerability to potentially negative impacts of climate variability,
including drought. Drought adaptation strategies are employed when impacts of drought
are not observed.
•
Anna Palmer, Science and Environmental Studies, ap744415@ohio.edu
Prepared by Anna Palmer –
Graduate student in OU Environmental Studies program.
Undergraduate degree in Environmental Studies. Winner of National
Aquatic Resource Survey Campus Challenge for the E.P.A.. Initiated
campus wide composting program at SUNY Purchase. Interested in
developing and conducting climate adaptation research focused on
freshwater management and environmental/public policy.
Fig 1. “First Nations” Today- 560 tribes in the USA today existing
over a wide range of climate and socioeconomic conditions
Image Source: http://flashmedia.glynn.k12.ga.us/webpages/kadams/photos/24850/map-30-03.jpg
Literature Review- Developed a standardized method that could be useful to tribes.
Integrating Extension and Research from Partner Institutions- Attended the Native
Waters on Arid Lands Conference, recorded perceived problems from tribal leaders and
other stakeholders.
Secondary Data Collection- Primary data source will be Tiller’s Guide to Indian Country.
Identifying Risks and Approaches that Enhance Resiliency- Analyzed policies, water
plans, economic models, and agricultural practices.
Model Development- Will seek to create a standard model for valid cross-tribal analyses.
Vulnerability Assessment-Vulnerability is not an outcome but rather a state or
condition of being Comparisons across highly heterogeneous tribal lands will be
challenging.
This project will help engage tribal government’s and agricultural producers in co-
producing solutions to climate challenges by using vulnerability assessment tools.
This project is the first step of an iterative process that will develop over the next five
years. The primary purpose of this integrated research and outreach project is to
build capacity of identified tribal members, departments and councils, Bureau of
Indian Affairs, Bureau of Reclamation, USDA, and 1994 Tribal Colleges.
Master of Science in Environmental Studies
Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience on Tribal Lands
Anna Palmer, ap744415@ohio.edu
INTRODUCTION
Climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity today. This has led to new
approaches for coping with unprecedented climate conditions. Local governments,
cities, states and nations around the world are now developing climate adaptation
policies1. Vulnerability Assessments are a cutting edge approach in these strategies.
They provide a framework and iterative process that adapts to new information and
changing conditions in the social-ecological system. This can be particularly useful in
understanding and addressing climate resiliency of agriculture on tribal lands.
Resilience -“the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before a system
changes to a radically different state as well as the capacity to self-organize and the
capacity for adaptation to emerging circumstances.”2
Adaptation – “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.” 3
Vulnerability – “a function of character, magnitude and rate of climate change to which
a system is exposed, as well as the system’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity.”4
Assessment – “critical evaluation of information for purposes of guiding decisions on a
complex issue.”5
Exposure – “is the degree to which a system is exposed to a given stressor.” 6
Sensitivity– “is the degree to which a stressor impacts the system.”6
Adaptive capacity – “is the potential for the system to adjust or cope with the impact.”6
Potential Impact– shows the level of impacts assuming no adaptation.”7
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1, Vogel, B., & Henstra, D. (2015). Studying local climate adaptation: A heuristic research framework for
comparative policy analysis. Global Environmental Change, 31, 110-120.
2. Adger, W. N., (2006), 'Vulnerability', Global Environmental Change, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 268-281
3. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change (2001): Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group II Report. IPCC,
Geneva.
4. NRC. (2010). America’s Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press.
5. Garfin, G., A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, eds. (2013). Assessment Southwest United
States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance.
Washington, DC: Island Press.
6. Mumby, P. J., Chollett, I., Bozec, Y., & Wolff, N. H. (2014). Ecological resilience, robustness and vulnerability:
How do these concepts benefit ecosystem management? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 7,
22-27.
7. Füssel, H., & Klein, R. J. T. (2006). Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual
thinking. Climatic Change, (3), 301.
METHODS
This project is intended to increase the climate resiliency of agricultural production
on American Indian lands through improved water management policies. Unit of
analysis is sovereign territorial units West of the Mississippi River, Sustaining
agricultural production on tribal lands will become progressively more challenging
due to decreased water availability and declining ground water supplies.
AIM
CONCLUSION
Fig 2.1 Key components of vulnerability assessment.6
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
A special thanks to my thesis advisor Dr. Derek Kauneckis.
Components of Vulnerability Frameworks
QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED
What are the specific climate impacts on different tribal lands?
How can responses to climate impacts be expanded to avoid negative outcomes, or
even prosper from change?
How do current natural resource governance systems (water rights, land rights, etc.)
influence community resilience?
How to engage tribal governments in co-producing solutions to climate challenges
affecting their communities?
Study Area across a Diversity of Tribal Lands
KEY CONCEPTS
Fig 3. Spider Diagram comparing five areas of vulnerability assessment across
sovereign territorial units. High levels of vulnerability are associated with weak
and inadequate adaptive capacity, insufficient infrastructure, high geographic
risks, low diversity of economic resources and poor socioeconomic conditions.
Assess Current
Vulnerability
Estimate Future
Conditions
Estimate Future
Vulnerabilities
Fig 2.2 Key Steps to a
Vulnerability Assessment
1
2
3
4
5
Tribe 1
Tribe 2
Adaptive
capacity
Socioeconomic
conditions
Diversity of
economy
Built
infrastructure
Measuring Tribal Nation Resilience
Exposure to
extreme
weather events
Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Sector
Sponsoring Agencies Partner Institutions
University of
Nevada Reno
Thesis Committee
Derek Kauneckis, Ph.D
Anirudh V. S. Ruhil, Ph. D
OHIO UNIVERSITY
The Voinovich School of
Leadership and Public Affairs
• Extreme weather events
• Water supply and quality
• Ecological impacts
• Economic
• Food Security
• Health
• Infrastructural
• Cultural
Pinon NutsFlood Events
Drought
Tornado Failed Crops