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International H2 value chains: A German perspective - Kilian Crone, German Energy Agency

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OECD Webinar, 14.06.2022
International H2 Value Chains
A German Perspective
©
Axel
Biewer

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2
Global Alliance Powerfuels, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) 2021, S. 8

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GLOBAL DEMAND 2050
• Acil Allen Report - High
• BP Energy Outlook 2020 – Net Zero
• IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 202...

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International H2 value chains: A German perspective - Kilian Crone, German Energy Agency

  1. 1. OECD Webinar, 14.06.2022 International H2 Value Chains A German Perspective © Axel Biewer
  2. 2. 2 Global Alliance Powerfuels, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) 2021, S. 8
  3. 3. GLOBAL DEMAND 2050 • Acil Allen Report - High • BP Energy Outlook 2020 – Net Zero • IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 - SDS • Shell - Sky Scenario • Powerfuels in a Renewables World • Hydrogen Economy Outlook - Strong Policy • Acil Allen Report - Medium • BP Energy Outlook 2020 – Rapid • Hydrogen Council - 2DS • World Energy Council - Unfinished Symphony • Acil Allen Report - Low • World Energy Council - Modern Jazz • Hydrogen Economy Outlook - Weak Policy < 1,8 °C 1,8 – 2,3 °C > 2,3 °C Quelle: WEC 2021
  4. 4. PTX DEMAND IN GERMANY [TWh] Spannweite der Szenarien (Elektrifizierung/Gase): Ariadne 2021 (PtX) & BMWi 2021 (H2) Klimaneutralität 2045: Agora 2021, Ariadne 2021, BDI 2021, dena 2021 Klimaneutralität 2050: BMWi 2021 64 69 80 100 110 223 384 422 542 657 700 690 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Agora 2021 dena 2021 Ariadne 2021 BDI 2021 BMWi 2020 (NWS) Agora 2021 dena 2021 Agora 2021 BDI 2021 dena 2021 Ariadne 2021 BMWi 2021 2030 2040 2045 2050 PtX H2
  5. 5. Produktionskapazität grüner H2 Exportvolumina grüner H2 Australien 2025: 0,0265-0,3448 MtH2/a 2040: 0,6213-3,1804 MtH2/a Chile 2025: 0,21 MtH2/a 2040: 2,1 MtH2/a Kanada 2050: 25-35 MtH2/a GKR 2050: 50-100 MtH2/a Türkei 2050: 1,5-1,9 MtH2/a Russland 2040: 0,7-7 MtH2/a USA 2050: 41 MtH2/a GKR 2050: 20-50 MtH2/a Marokko 2030: 2-3 MtNH3/a Ukraine 2030: 0,63 MtH2/a Produktionskapazität grünes NH3 Globale PtX-Potenziale IEE 2021 3780 Mt H2 LUT 2020 1290 Mt H2 Jülich 2020- 2022 4950 Mt H2 in Westafrika (nur H2) Weniger belastbare Daten BILATERAL COOPERATION
  6. 6. The window of opportunity: EU 2030 target requires fast, strong shift from project announcement to implementation Global Alliance Powerfuels 8 Capacity per project status Capacity required by EU target 80% of 2023 projects have no final investment decision Estimated 2023 production capacities are only 0.4% of what is needed by 2030 If EU target is to be met, installed electrolysis capacity needs growth of 70% per year ≈ equivalent to the growth of solar PV in its best times Assuming 30% of evaluated projects to be implemented Electrolyzer Capacity [GW], EU-27 Source: PIK
  7. 7. GLOBAL FUNDING IS GAINING MOMENTUM >10 5 1 Number of funding programmes per country 0 bil. € 2 bil. € 4 bil. € 6 bil. € 8 bil. € 10 bil. € 12 bil. € 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Number of programmes Volume Types of funding and covered expenses Number of programmes and total approx. volume per lifecycle stage 87% 5% 8% 90% 10% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Supported activities Types of funding OPEX CAPEX Loan Grant (market-dependent) Grant (fixed) Report online: https://www.powerfuels.org/news/news/report- public-funding-for-powerfuels-projects/
  8. 8. How to move ahead? De-Risking Powerfuels Projects • Project costs are mainly financing costs, and capital is not very scarce in principle. Many projects are mature, but pre FID/construction  they are either unviable or too risky • Governments can… • Support de-risking on supply (guarantees, permitting) • De-risking offtake (CfDs) • Create clear framework for „green“ property (sustainability standards) • Fast-track infrastructure deployment/expansion for „new“ molecules: ports & downstream • Industry Alliances: Exchanging best practices, benchmarking/data collection & supporting Infrastructure
  9. 9. Kilian Crone Team Leader International H2 Economy T: +49 (0)30 66 777 - 732 kilian.crone@dena.de 12

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