AEO 2011: Africa and its emerging partners

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AEO 2011: Africa and its emerging partners

  1. 1. Brussels, 30 September 2011
  2. 2. Africa and its Emerging Partners 2
  3. 3. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization The four-speed world in the 1990s 3
  4. 4. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization The four-speed world in the 2000s 4
  5. 5. Who are Africa’s “Emerging Partners”? Turkey 7% China 38% ($16 bn) ($93 bn) • Countries outside OECD DAC in 2000 whose economic relations with Africa Korea, Rep. 7% have risen fast over ($17 bn) the decade India 14% ($34 bn) • China (incl. HK), Brazil 7% India, Korea, Brazil ($17 bn) and Turkey are Other EPs 27 % leading the pack Africa Trade Volume, 2009 % of total (US$ billion) 5
  6. 6. The rise of Emerging Partners Share of Traditional (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs) in Africa’s total trade • Africa’s total trade100% doubled between 90% 2000 and 2009 80% 70% • Share of trade with 60% non-traditional 50% partners increased 40% from 23% in 2000 30% to 39% in 2009 20% 10% • China’s share 0% tripled 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TPs EPs 6
  7. 7. … and it’s much more than all about China Africas total trade with emerging partners (2009) Other Emerging Partners 26.7% China 38.5% Turkey 6.5% India 14.1% Brazil 7.1% Korea 7.2% 7
  8. 8. Diversifying trade partners 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 EU27 China United States Trade with Africa (billion USD, Intra-African 2009) India Ratio of trade volume in 2009 Japan over 2000 Korea, Rep. * Brazil Turkey * Canada Thailand Russian Federation Switzerland Taiwan, ChinaUnited Arab Emirates Singapore Malaysia 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Ratio 8
  9. 9. Traditional Partners remain key…Billion USD Africas Total Trade Volume900750 Traditional Partners Emerging Partners600450300150 0 2008 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 9
  10. 10. Traditional Partners remain key… (continued) African FDI inflows 1995-2008100% Share of total Developed Countries80% Africa60% Latin America40% 79 Asia 72.120% Unspecified 0% 1995-1999 2000-2008 10
  11. 11. Scope for synergies Concessional Loans from China DAC Official Development Assistance by sectors (end of 2009) to Africa, by sectors (05-09) Multisectoral, Public 8% facilities, Others, 3.2% 6.5% Productive Agriculture sectors, 10% , 4.3% Industry , 16.1% Economic Infrastruc ture, 61% Social Infrastructure, sectors, 65% 17% Energy and resource devlpt,2005-2009 8.9% 11
  12. 12. Industrialization: more opportunities than threats? Africa’s exports of manufactured products100 Billion USD EU25 80 USA 60 Other Traditional 40 Partners Other Emerging 20 Partners China 0 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 12
  13. 13. Managing a widening policy space Who among the following partners are typically most effective at meeting the development objectives of the country?100%80%60%40%20% 0% Infrastructure Innovation Exports Health Governance 1 Emerging partners 2 Multilaterals 3 None of them 4 Not relevant 5 Traditional partners 13
  14. 14. 4 received notions this report calls into question Emerging partners are perceived 1.to be bringing down governance standards; 2.to be helping the re-indebtment; 3.to be contributing to the de-industrialization; 4.and to specialization into resource extraction of African countries 14
  15. 15. Main findings Emerging Partners have become a major driver of Africa’s growth – although Traditional Partners are still very significant and will remain so in the years to come The patterns of engagement of Emerging and Traditional Partners tend to be complementary, to the benefit of African countries There are outstanding risks especially for the weakest African states but so far, more fear than harm 15
  16. 16. Policy implications Enshrine engagement strategies into national development plans Search for a virtuous circle of regional integration and coordination Raise the scale of investment to attract emerging investors, including Sovereign Wealth Funds More transparency to put an end to unconstructive myths 16
  17. 17. www.africaneconomicoutlook.org Free online access 17
  18. 18. Thank you 18
  19. 19. Third party endorsement ‘"Africa and its Emerging Partners" is one of the most balanced, detailed, evidence-based pieces of group research I have seen on this topic and I highly recommend it.‘ Deborah Brautigam, Professor, American University, Washington DC, and Author of The Dragons Gift: The real story of China in Africa ‘I am most impressed by its scope, structure and intensity. There has been abundant discourse around certain elements of Africa’s new partnerships; this report brings these strands together expertly and with a clear eye for analytical rigour.’ Simon Freemantle, Senior Analyst , Standard Bank 19

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