This document analyzes Africa's shifting economic partnerships, noting that emerging partners like China, India, Turkey, Brazil and South Korea have become major drivers of Africa's growth, surpassing traditional partners in some trade. While traditional partners still play a significant role, emerging partners now account for 39% of Africa's total trade, up from 23% in 2000. China in particular has tripled its share of Africa's trade. However, the report also finds that emerging and traditional partners take complementary approaches that often benefit African countries, and that fears of harm have exceeded the actual impacts so far. It calls into question perceptions that emerging partners undermine governance, contribute to debt or deindustrialization.

1. Brussels, 30 September 2011

2. Africa and its Emerging Partners
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3. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization
The four-speed world in the 1990s
3

4. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization
The four-speed world in the 2000s
4

5. Who are Africa’s “Emerging Partners”?
Turkey 7% China 38%
($16 bn) ($93 bn) • Countries outside
OECD DAC in 2000
whose economic
relations with Africa
Korea, Rep. 7% have risen fast over
($17 bn) the decade
India 14%
($34 bn) • China (incl. HK),
Brazil 7% India, Korea, Brazil
($17 bn) and Turkey are
Other EPs 27 % leading the pack
Africa Trade Volume, 2009 % of total (US$ billion)
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6. The rise of Emerging Partners
Share of Traditional (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs)
in Africa’s total trade
• Africa’s total trade
100%
doubled between
90% 2000 and 2009
80%
70%
• Share of trade with
60% non-traditional
50% partners increased
40% from 23% in 2000
30% to 39% in 2009
20%
10% • China’s share
0% tripled
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TPs EPs
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7. … and it’s much more than all about China
Africa's total trade with emerging partners (2009)
Other Emerging
Partners 26.7%
China
38.5%
Turkey
6.5% India
14.1%
Brazil
7.1% Korea
7.2%
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8. Diversifying trade partners
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
EU27
China
United States
Trade with Africa (billion USD,
Intra-African 2009)
India Ratio of trade volume in 2009
Japan over 2000
Korea, Rep. *
Brazil
Turkey *
Canada
Thailand
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Taiwan, China
United Arab Emirates
Singapore
Malaysia
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Ratio
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9. Traditional Partners remain key…
Billion USD Africa's Total Trade Volume
900
750
Traditional Partners Emerging Partners
600
450
300
150
0
2008
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
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10. Traditional Partners remain key… (continued)
African FDI inflows 1995-2008
100%
Share of total
Developed
Countries
80%
Africa
60%
Latin America
40% 79 Asia 72.1
20%
Unspecified
0%
1995-1999 2000-2008
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11. Scope for synergies
Concessional Loans from China
DAC Official Development Assistance by sectors (end of 2009)
to Africa, by sectors (05-09)
Multisectoral, Public
8% facilities, Others,
3.2% 6.5%
Productive Agriculture
sectors, 10% , 4.3%
Industry ,
16.1% Economic
Infrastruc
ture, 61%
Social
Infrastructure, sectors, 65%
17% Energy
and
resource
devlpt,
2005-2009 8.9%
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12. Industrialization: more opportunities than threats?
Africa’s exports of manufactured products
100
Billion USD
EU25
80
USA
60
Other Traditional
40 Partners
Other Emerging
20 Partners
China
0
2006
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
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13. Managing a widening policy space
Who among the following partners are typically most effective
at meeting the development objectives of the country?
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Infrastructure Innovation Exports Health Governance
1 Emerging partners 2 Multilaterals 3 None of them
4 Not relevant 5 Traditional partners
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14. 4 received notions this report calls into question
Emerging partners are perceived
1.to be bringing down governance standards;
2.to be helping the re-indebtment;
3.to be contributing to the de-industrialization;
4.and to specialization into resource extraction
of African countries
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15. Main findings
Emerging Partners have become a major driver
of Africa’s growth – although Traditional Partners
are still very significant
and will remain so in the years to come
The patterns of engagement of Emerging and Traditional
Partners tend to be complementary,
to the benefit of African countries
There are outstanding risks especially for the weakest
African states
but so far, more fear than harm
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16. Policy implications
Enshrine engagement strategies
into national development plans
Search for a virtuous circle of
regional integration and coordination
Raise the scale of investment
to attract emerging investors,
including Sovereign Wealth Funds
More transparency
to put an end to unconstructive myths
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17. www.africaneconomicoutlook.org
Free online
access
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18. Thank you
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19. Third party endorsement
‘"Africa and its Emerging Partners" is one of the most balanced, detailed,
evidence-based pieces of group research I have seen on this topic and I
highly recommend it.‘ Deborah Brautigam,
Professor, American University, Washington DC,
and Author of 'The Dragon's Gift: The real story of China in Africa'
‘I am most impressed by its scope, structure and intensity. There has
been abundant discourse around certain elements of Africa’s new
partnerships; this report brings these strands together expertly and with a
clear eye for analytical rigour.’
Simon Freemantle, Senior Analyst , Standard Bank
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