1. Measuring and Managing Research Outcomes
National Research Policy Forum
Rome, 14th November 2012
Dr Michiel Kolman, Sr. VP Global Academic Relations, Elsevier
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2. Research is pivotal to economic growth and
addressing societal challenges
“ Science is not a luxury which is the preserve of developed countries...
Technology and innovation are key to achieving long-term economic and
social development
Science and innovation are recognised the world over as crucial to economic
competitiveness.”
The Royal Society: Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011
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3. The world of research is large and growing
Global R&D spending: $1.2 trillion in 2010
Spending on R&D – OECD countries*
Indexed values; 100 = Spend in 1981
350
300
Annual growth: +4% (real)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
* $PPP, 2000 constant currencies
Source: OECD, Battelle
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4. R&D spending as % of GDP has been relatively stable in
developed markets, and is increasing in developing ones
GERD as % of GDP – Developed Markets
3.0
2.5
2.0
Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD)
as % of GDP - Total 1.5
1.0
3.0
0.5
2.5 0.0
2.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1.5 GERD as % of GDP – Developing Markets
1.0 3.0
0.5 2.5
2.0
0.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: OECD 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Developed markets include US, Japan, and EU27
Developing markets include China and S. Korea
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5. Governments trying to protect R&D funding
€ 25,000.00
GERD of Italy 1996 - 2010
CAGR: 2.3%
€ 20,000.00
€ 15,000.00
€ 10,000.00
€ 5,000.00
€ 0.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2011
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6. Growth in R&D spending drives number of
researchers and research activity
Number of researchers – OECD countries Number of research articles published
Indexed values; 100 = Number of researchers in 1981 Indexed values; 100 = Number of articles in 1981
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
Annual growth: +4% Annual growth: +4%
Annual growth: +3-4%
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Global number of researchers: Number of research articles:
7 million in 2010 >1.5 million in 2010
Source: OECD; ISI; Scopus 6

7. Growth in research inputs drives growth in
research outputs
1,000,000
United States
China
100,000 United Kingdom Germany
Japan
Canada France
Number of articles published 2008
Italy
Spain
Australia India
Brazil Korea
Netherlands
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Poland Turkey Sweden
Belgium
Iran Denmark Israel
Greece Austria
10,000 Czech Republic
Hong Kong
Finland
Norway Mexico
New Zealand Portugal Singapore
Argentina South Africa
Ireland
Thailand Hungary
Egypt Romania Ukraine
Chile Malaysia
Slovakia Pakistan
Slovenia
Serbia Bulgaria Croatia
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia Colombia
Algeria
Lithuania Morocco
Estonia Belarus
1,000 Indonesia
Kuwait
Philippines
Cyprus Uruguay Iceland
Peru
Armenia Sri Lanka
Ethiopia
100
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Gross Expenditure on R&D, $m 2008 PPP
Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus 7

8. Four trends continue to increase the value of
research information
1. Inter-
disciplinarity
4. Data Science is becoming 2. Collabor
intensity more global -ation
and more complex & Mobility
3. Emerging
Markets
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9. Trend #1: Research is increasingly interdisciplinary
Italy Research Strengths (2011)
Interdisciplinarity increases
demand to
• Use information broadly across
disciplines
– Eliminate duplication
– Build on existing findings, data,
models
• Identify new cross-disciplinary
areas
• Nurture and leverage institutions’
inter-disciplinary strengths
Source: SciVal Spotlight, Italy map 9

10. Trend #2: Research is increasingly internationally
collaborative
Percentage of internationally co-authored articles
increased from 26% in 1996 to 36% in 2008
“Collaboration enhances the
quality of research, improves its
efficiency and effectiveness, and
is increasingly necessary as the
scale of budgets and research
challenges grow”
- The Royal Society, 2011
International collaboration
drives
• Demand to find collaborators to
leverage knowledge and
equipment, and co-ordinate efforts
• Need to map collaboration
networks
Source: Scopus; The Royal Society – Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011
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11. Trend #3: Emerging markets are rapidly growing
their research activity
Number of articles per year (‘000)
3,000
CAGR
‘00-’10 Drivers
2,500
China 20%
• Emerging economies’
2,000 India 11% consumption of research
Brazil 13%
S. Korea 12%
information and
dissemination of results
1,500
Italy 6%
US 4% • Developed economies’
1,000 need to use those results
UK 4%
Japan 2%
and collaborate
Germany 4%
500
France 4%
0 ROW 3%
1996 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: Scopus; projections based on trend information
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12. Trend #4: Research is increasingly data intensive
Very high importance, very high satisfaction
• Drives demand to host,
Ease of access (Easy or Fairly Easy)
store, curate and link to
data sets
– Subject-specific
– Across disciplines
High importance, low satisfaction
Importance of access
Source: Publisher Research Council – Global Access vs. Importance Study (3,823 researcher respondents)
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13. STM information companies have a unique vantage point on research
Each year
•3 million articles submitted
•300,000 peer reviewers
•1.5 million articles published
•30 million readers
•2 billion digital article downloads
•30 million article citations
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14. Contribution #1: Continue to register, review, disseminate,
and preserve research outputs

15. Contribution #2: Nurture and leverage cross-disciplinary areas
of research
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16. Contribution #3: Facilitate collaboration
citation impact
Field-weighted
Less than world average
> world but < UK average
Greater than UK average
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17. Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation
Migratory researcher = permanent or returnee (2 or more years abroad) Relative Productivity = articles per year relative to all UK researchers
Transitory researcher = less then 2 years abroad Relative Seniority = years of publication activity relative to all UK researchers

18. Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation
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Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus

19. Global migration patterns
Study country: UK Study country: USA Study country: CHN
To-country % migration To-country % migration To-country % migration
USA 28.7 UK 10.6 USA 50.4
AUS 6.9 CAN 9.7 JPN 8.3
GER 6.1 CHN 9.6 CAN 6.0
CAN 5.4 GER 8.6 UK 5.5
FRA 4.8 South Korea 5.0 SGP 5.2
ITA 3.3 JPN 4.6 GER 4.2
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20. Contribution #5: Facilitate access to experimental data
Publishers are working to facilitate access to experimental data sets
 Link data sets to journal articles, e.g. Pangaea, CCDC
 Support and drive guidelines with key partners, e.g. Wellcome Trust, NSF, Bill
and Melinda Gates Foundation
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Source: 3823 researcher respondents, PRC global access vs. Importance study http://www.publishingresearch.net/

21. Contribution #6: Broaden range of research metrics and tools
http://www.projectsnowball.info/ 21

22. Summary
Quality of life
Quality research
Quality information
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