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The document discusses trends in Japanese outbound tourism from 1985-2009. Some key points: - Japanese outbound tourism grew 323% from 1986-2000 but has fallen 13% from 2001-2010. - Australia's market share of Japanese tourists peaked at 5.6% in 1993 but had fallen to 2.1% by 2009, lower than 1985 levels. - From 2006-2009 the overall Japanese outbound market fell 12% while Australia's market halved. - China and Korea have increased their share of the Japanese outbound market from 26% in 2000 to 41% in 2009, taking customers from other destinations like Australia.
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- 1. Roger March rogerstgmarch@gmail.com Roger March@2010
- 2. Between 2001-‐2010, Between 1986 and 2000, Japanese outbound has Japanese outbound grew fallen 13%. 323%. In 2009, 332,000 In 1997, 814,000 Japanese visited Japanese visited. Australia. Australia’s market share In 2009, our market peaked in 1993 at 5.6%. share was 2.1%, lower than our share in 1985. From 2006-‐2009, the Australia’s Japanese Japanese outbound market has halved, from market has fallen 12%. 651,000 to 332,000. In 2000, China & Korea In 2009, China & Korea accounted for 26% of accounted for 41% of outbound travel. outbound travel. Roger March@2010
- 3. Millions 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1985-‐2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Japanese Outbound Travel: 2006 2007 2008 2009 Roger March@2010
- 4. The Rise of Japanese Tourism to Australia… 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Roger March@2010
- 5. In 1994, the Australian Tourist Commission, released, following the announcement Sydney would host the 2000 Olympics, that Japan would generate 1.45 million visitors in that year and 1.82M by 2004. Roger March@2010
- 6. The Decline of Australia’s Japanese market… 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Roger March@2010
- 7. Queensland reflects Australia Roger March@2010
- 8. Australia’s Market Share, 1985-‐2009 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Roger March@2010
- 10. Change in Market Share, Selected Regions & Countries 25% China 20% Resort destinations 15% US Mainland 10% Hawaii Australia 5% 0% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Hawaii U.S. Main China Resort Australia Roger March@2010
- 11. Market Share by Main DesWnaWon: 1998-‐2009 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 40 35 30 25 Percent 20 15 10 5 0 Europe NE Asia SE Asia Nth America Oceania Hawaii Guam/Saipan Others DesAnaAon Source: Market Insight 2010, JTB FoundaWon Roger March@2010
- 12. Changes in Market Share of Major DesWnaWons: 1999-‐2009 Change in Market Share between 1999-‐2009 (as % difference) Australia, -‐51.0% Singapore, -‐40.0% Losers Hawaii, -‐35.0% Guam, -‐10.0% US Mainland, -‐6.0% Thailand, 0.0% HK, 26.0% Taiwan, 30.0% Winners Sth Korea, 63.0% China , 90.0% -‐60.0% -‐40.0% -‐20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Source: JNTO staWsWcs Roger March@2010
- 13. • Japanese tourism has been stagnant for 10 years • Australia’s share of the Japanese market has been declining for 17 years • Something unparalleled has happened to Australian demand in recent years • The phenomenon of An-‐kin-‐tan is profound • The rise of China is drawing people away from other desWnaWons. Roger March@2010
- 14. Internal Factors External Unknown factors factors Japanese market decline Roger March@2010
- 15. External factors: non-‐controllables • Foreign exchange • Economic cycles & downturns • Japanese consumpWon & leisure pacerns • Japanese demographic changes • Intensifying compeWWon • Investment in tourism • Airline events – ANA & Northwest withdraw, Ansec collapses, Jet★ to Japan Roger March@2010
- 16. Internal factors: controllables • Image of Australia in Japan: Big Nature & cuddly animals • AdverAsing campaigns • Coherence of markeAng efforts in Japan between TA, STOs and individual operators • RelaAonship management with Japanese travel • Tourism Australia’s conflicAng prioriAes • Servicing the Japanese tourist in Australia (& Hawaii) • Weak tourism management in key desAnaAons Roger March@2010
- 17. Reasons for Decline in Japanese Market: Survey of Tourism Operators CompeWtor desWnaWons, An-‐Kin-‐tan Airline capacity Strength of AUD Campaigns ineffecWve or inconsistent Lack of new offerings by Australia Decline in Japan economy Australia no longer flavour of the month Costs in Australia Roger March@2010
- 18. Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 1992-‐2009 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Hawaii Australia Roger March@2010
- 19. Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 1992-‐2001 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Hawaii Australia Linear (Hawaii) Linear (Australia) Roger March@2010
- 20. Market shares of Australia and Hawaii: 2002-‐2009 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Hawaii Australia Roger March@2010
- 21. Some explanaAons? Roger March@2010
- 22. Roger March@2010
- 23. Registered DesAnaAon Specialists by DesAnaAon (2010) 900 800 773 Japanese travel agents 700 600 500 446 446 are well trained in the 400 304 297 300 257 Australian 220 215 204 200 178 market… 100 0 Source: JATA, 'Tsuji ga kataru ryokogyo' (2010) Roger March@2010
- 24. …and it ain’t exchange rates 900,000 110 Despite strengthening yen, numbers fall 100 800,000 90 700,000 80 Yen/A$ 600,000 Despite strengthening yen, numbers fall 70 500,000 60 Japanese Visitors 400,000 Exchange rate 50 300,000 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Roger March@2010
- 25. Roger March@2010
- 26. Young Japanese are deserAng overseas travel. Figure 4: Market share of outbound travel by age: 1990-‐2009 Market share of 45 outbound travel 40 by age: 35 1990-‐2009 30 25 The 60+ plus market 20 is now equal largest. 15 10 5 0 1990 1993 1998 2003 2009 60+ 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 20 to 29 under 20 Roger March@2010
- 27. The overseas wedding market is stagnant. Watabe Wedding, Net Sales: 2005-‐2009 30000 25000 Net sales, millions of yen 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year DomesWc Overseas Roger March@2010
- 28. Hisakazu Matsuda, president of Japan Consumer MarkeWng Research InsWtute calls Japanese in their 20s the “consumpWon-‐haters”. He esWmates that by the Wme this generaWon hits their 60s, their habits of frugality will have cost the ‘Japan Goes From Dynamic to Disheartened’ Japanese economy $420 NYTimes October 17, 2010 billion in lost consumpWon. Weddings in Osaka, Japan, now tend to be small, low-‐ budget affairs, not the lavish celebraWons once favored by couples. Roger March@2010
- 29. No wonder Japan is our worst performing repeater market. “What was the reason you chose Australia?” The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. 2000 2009 1. To cuddle a koala 50% 1. To cuddle a koala 43% 2. Never been before 34% 2. Never been before 33% 3. Safety aspect 27% 4. To experience nature 26% 3. To experience nature 40% 5. For the beaches 21% 4. For the beaches 33% 5. To see a parWcular place 30% 6. Safety aspect 19% THE IMAGE OF AUSTRALIA IS ENTRENCHED IN THE MINDS OF JAPANESE Source: JTAQ/JGCT Survey Roger March@2010
- 30. Seasonality paferns have shiged 2009 1998 Comparison of Monthly Percentages of Japanese Comparison of Monthly Percentages of Japanese Outbound And Australian Inbound (1998) Outbound And Australian Inbound (2009) 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jpn Outbound Aust Inbound Aust Inbound Jpn Outbound Roger March@2010
- 31. Roger March@2010
- 32. Early industry summits, late government iniAaAves Roger March@2010
- 33. Shiging trends & issues Roger March@2010
- 34. Roger March@2010
- 35. Governments don’t work. Markets do. Roger March@2010
- 36. Being a preferred desAnaAon means nothing. Roger March@2010
- 37. 3-‐Year Forecasts V Actual Inbound Numbers: 1997-‐2010 Date of published forecast For Year… Forecast Actual Difference Oct-‐92 1995 887,000 783,000 104,000 Apr-‐95 1997 856,000 814,000 42,000 Jun-‐96 1998 998,000 751,000 247,000 Jun-‐97 1999 1,026,000 707,000 319,000 Nov-‐98 2000 780,000 721,000 59,000 Nov-‐98 2001 849,000 674,000 175,000 Aug-‐99 2002 886,000 715,000 171,000 Feb-‐00 2003 957,000 628,000 329,000 Feb-‐01 2004 777,000 710,000 67,000 May-‐03 2006 758,000 651,000 107,000 May-‐04 2007 805,000 573,000 232,000 Apr-‐05 2008 713,000 457,000 256,000 Apr-‐06 2009 592,000 355,000 237,000 Aug-‐08 2010 399,000 373,000* 26,000 *Forecast based on 5% increase to June 2010 Roger March@2010
- 38. Are you Ared, like Hawaii? Roger March@2010
- 39. “Fall in love with your customer, not your product.” • Gold Coast Tourism execuWve says he believes the ‘Famous for Fun’ campaign brings to life everything the Gold Coast is all about. • "We're an exhilaraWng, fun holiday desWnaWon for families mainly, and this theme is something Las Vegas would kill for. • "It's so powerful. When I saw all the imagery that goes with it, to be quite honest, I got quite emoWonal because we're lucky enough to live in this place 52 weeks a year. It's got everything and most other locaWons have got one of what we have many of." Las Vergas reposiWoned itself away from gambling to family desWnaWon. SMH Oct 9 Roger March@2010
- 40. Any good news?! • Japanese outbound market is up 8.3% through September • Japanese visitors to Australia are up 17% through August (+6.5% to Hawaii) • School excursion market remains strong (#1) Roger March@2010
- 41. Thank you. Roger March CQUniversity r.march@cqu.edu.au Roger March@2010
- 42. The real reason Japanese have stopped coming… hcp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FiODCsLh4 Roger March@2010