4. Who are Africa’s “Emerging Partners”?
Africa’s Trade with the Emerging Partners in 2011 (US$ billion and % of Total)
Turkey 1.7% China
($14.5 bn) 19.5%
($171 bn) • Countries outside
OECD DAC in 2000
whose economic
relations with Africa
Korea, Rep.
have risen fast over
2.8%
the decade
India ($25 bn)
3.5%
Brazil 3.2% ($31 bn) • China, India, Korea,
($27.6 bn) Brazil and Turkey
are leading the pack
Other Eps 8.8 %
($ 77.5 bn)
4
5. China’s share has grown rapidly …
Africa's total trade with emerging partners
Distribution in 2008 Distribution in 2011
Oth.EPs
Turkey 23%
Oth.EPs China
31% 35% 4%
China
49%
Korea,
Rep. Brazil
Turkey India 7% 8%
6% Brazil 14% India (*)
Korea, 8% 9%
Rep.
6%
5
6. … in particular through the global crisis
Total trade: Africa's top Emerging Partners + Benchmarks (USA, FRA,
Billion USD GER, ITA)
180
160
140
China
120 United States
France
100
Oth.EPs
80 Italy
Germany
60
India (*)
40 Brazil
Korea, Rep.
20 Turkey
0
1992
1999
2006
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7. Emerging Partners’ share in African trade: poised to
stabilise at around 40%?
Share of Traditional (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs)
in Africa’s total trade • Africa’s total trade
Trade volume with the EPs (right axis) TPs EPs
almost tripled
Billion USD between
90% 350 2000 and 2011
80% 300
70%
60%
250 • The share of trade
50% 200 with non- traditional
40% 150 partners increased
30%
100
from 23% in 2000
20% to 40% in 2011
10% 50
0% 0
• China’s share
2008
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
quadrupled
7
8. Industrialization: Emerging partners confirm their role
as importers of African manufactures
Africa’s exports of manufactured products by type of partner
Billion USD
(1995-2010, in billion USD)
100
80
EU25
60 USA
Oth.Traditional
40 Oth.Emerging
China
20
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
8
9. Traditional Partners remain key: trade
Africa's Total Trade Volume 2000-2011 (in billion USD)
Billion USD
900
800
700 China
600 Oth.Emerging
500 Oth.Traditional
400 USA
300 EU25
200
100
0
2011
2007
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
9
10. Traditional Partners remain key: investment
African FDI inflows 1995-2008
100%
Developed
Share of total
Countries
80%
Africa
60%
Latin America
40% 79 % Asia 72.1 %
20%
Unspecified
0%
1995-1999 2000-2008
10
11. Scope for synergies
Emerging Partners have become a major driver
of Africa’s growth – although Traditional Partners
are still very significant
and will remain so in the years to come
The patterns of engagement of Emerging and Traditional
Partners tend to be complementary,
to the benefit of African countries
There are outstanding risks especially for the weakest
African states
but so far, more fear than harm
11
12. Scope for synergies … (continued)
DAC Official Development Assistance
Concessional Loans from China
to Africa, by sectors (05-09)
Public
by sectors (end of 2009)
Multisectoral, facilities,
8% 3.2%
Agriculture Others,
, 4.3% 6.5%
Productive
sectors, 10%
Industry ,
16.1%
Economic
Social Infrastruc
sectors, 65% ture, 61%
Infrastructure,
17%
Energy
2005-2009 and
resource
devlpt,
8.9% 12
13. Managing a widening policy space
Who among the following partners are typically most effective
at meeting the development objectives of the country?
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Infrastructure Innovation Exports Health Governance
1 Emerging partners 2 Multilaterals 3 None of them
4 Not relevant 5 Traditional partners
13
14. Policy implications
Enshrine engagement strategies
into national development plans
Search for a virtuous circle of
regional integration and coordination
Raise the scale of investment
to attract emerging investors,
including Sovereign Wealth Funds
More transparency
to put an end to unconstructive myths
14
