Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast on 25th October, 2018 presented by Professor John Barry, Queen's University Belfast.

1. Just energy transitions and ‘full
spectrum innovation’:
decarbonisation, divestment,
democratisation and disruption
John Barry
Professor of Green Political Economy
Centre or the Study of Risk and Inequality
Queen’s University Belfast
@centre_risk
@ProfJohnBarry
j.barry@qub.ac.uk

2. research base
1.‘Catalysing and Characterising Transitions’ – 3 yr Irish EPA
project mapping the RoI low energy transition (2014-2017)
2. Barry, J et al (2015)
3. Healy, N and Barry, J (2017)
4. Barry, J and Mercier, S (2018)

3. the condition our climate and carbon condition is in
Recent IPCC report
Mary Robinson’s new book
Energy transition as flip slide of climate change
And a ‘just transition’ as flip side of climate justice

7. “Ireland’s location at the edge of the Atlantic Ocean ensures
one of the best wind and ocean resources in Europe”.
International Energy Agency
Ireland’s solar climate is as good as Paris, and equivalent to
70% of the solar climate on the Mediterranean coast.
This means that a transition to a 100% renewable energy
system for the island of Ireland is entirely feasible.

8. local context – Republic
In July 2017 the Republic of Ireland passed a law to ban
onshore fracking.
However, just days later, one of Ireland’s most prominent oil
and gas exploration companies, Providence Resources, was
granted a license to drill, in search of an estimated five
billion barrels of oil.
A year later the Irish government committed to divest from
fossil fuel corporations, the first country in the world to do
so. It appears that Ireland’s work on climate change is a
matter of double-speak – with Government taking positive
steps, while allowing privatised carbon-heavy industries to
undermine them.

9. Fuel Poverty in Northern Ireland
“The main reason for this is a
combination of our climate, lower
incomes, higher fuel price and a high
dependence on oil. In Northern Ireland
oil is the most common home heating
fuel.
Around 68 per cent of households use oil
and this rises to over 80 per cent of
households in rural areas.
This over-dependence on one
unregulated fuel means fuel poverty
initiatives in Northern Ireland need to
address a unique set of challenges which
do not exist in other regions of the UK”.

10. local context- Northern Ireland

11. what is a ‘just transition’?
Ensuring transition from high to low carbon economies
do not increase social injustice – i.e. costs of the
transition being borne disproportionally by low income
groups/working class
Climate stabilisation, climate justice and shift away
from coal, oil and gas to renewable, decentralised
energy systems
Ensuring jobs in the green/renewable energy sectors
are decent and well paid

12. what is a ‘just transition’
Origins in the trades’ union/labour movement.
decarbonisation of the energy system requires investment
and innovation in growing the low carbon system (which
includes but goes beyond energy and electricity production,
distribution and consumption, but includes, inter alia, the
food, housing, transportation systems).
But it also requires the planned retirement and
decommissioning of the carbon energy system
But in a way that does not unfairly or unjustly impact on
workers, communities and vulnerable sections of the
population

13. overcoming ‘environment vs. jobs’
framing
“Labor unions..[have often] defended fossil fuel (and
nuclear energy) jobs against environmental arguments and
moves toward a decarbonized energy system.
Here we must recognize that a “jobs versus the
environment/climate” frame has often dominated labor
union energy transition thinking.
These concerns need to be recognized, and here a just
transition framing directs more policy attention to the
creation of new jobs as fossil fuel based ones are phased
out. In this way a just transition focus could helpfully
facilitate greater capacity for communities to plan for low-
carbon energy transitions”
(Healy and Barry, 2017: 454; emphasis added )

14. Avoiding ‘multiple injustices’
(Jakob and Steckel, 2016, p.9)
Global Just Transition - Linking poverty alleviation, pro-
poor and inclusive development of countries in the
global south with climate mitigation and low carbon
energy transition – via the UN Sustainable Development
Goals

15. The preamble of the Paris Agreement on
climate change, adopted in 2015, also
underscores close links between climate
action, sustainable development and a just
transition, with Parties to the Agreement
“taking into account the imperatives of a just
transition of the workforce and the creation of
decent work and quality jobs in accordance
with nationally defined development
priorities.”

16. just transition discourse on the
island of Ireland & Scotland

17. what is a ‘just transition’?
Not enough to focus on environmental/ energy/
resource dimensions of the transition from ‘actually
existing unsustainability’
Economic, social, justice and human rights dimensions
of any transition also needed
So a ‘just transition’ is NOT the ‘greening or
decarbonising of business as usual’
“as we make the transition to clean energy, we must
remember the millions of fossil fuel workers around
the world who spent their lives extracting the fuel
that has fed our economies. They too are victims of
climate change and deserve to be treated with dignity.
Their story as part of the struggle to climate justice”
(Robinson, 2018: 113)

18. decarbonisation
Overcoming carbon ‘lock-in’
decades long timeframe of large-scale energy and associated
infrastructural, economic and cultural changes
significant political and economic actors and pressures that
are prolonging our continuing ‘carbon lock in’ (Barry et al,
2015).
overcoming carbon lock in will require major socio-technical
innovations at different scales and within different social and
economic sectors, activities and practices.

20. Carbon subsidies Researchers at the IMF
estimated that global
subsidies for fossil
energy in 2014,
including the social,
health and
environmental costs
associated, are costing
the world’s
governments
approximately $5.3
trillion per year, or
6.5% of global GDP.

21. Local carbon lock in
In 2014, peat generation accounted for
only 8.8% of Ireland’s electricity
requirements, but 21.8% of carbon
emissions from power generation and
Irish energy consumers pay an annual
subsidy of roughly €115m to continue
this ‘carbon lock in’.

22. energy as a ‘socio-technical system’
Recognition of energy as a socio technical system, embedded
in a complex multi dimensional multi actor and multi-level
arena (from global to local government to households), with
dynamic properties.
“the key choices involved in energy transitions are not so much
between different fuels but between different forms of social,
economic, and political arrangements built in combination with
new energy technologies. In other words, the challenge is not
simply what fuel to use but how to organize a new energy
system around that fuel”.
(Miller, Iles and Jones, 2013: 139: emphasis added)

23. Decarbonisation and the next
industrial revolution

24. Energy system transition –
innovation & abandonment
Governance of the
abandonment of carbon
energy system: fading out,
termination, deconstruction
Governance of promotion of low
carbon energy systems: a matter
of progress & innovation
How to
compensate
individuals,
families,
businesses &
communities who
will ‘lose out’ in
the transition
Recognition of
importance of
‘win-win’ solutions
but these require
mitigating policies
and strategies i.e.
role of the state

25. “If it’s wrong to wreck
the planet, then it’s
wrong to profit from
that wreckage.”
- Bill McKibben, 350.org
Fossil fuel corporations
have 3 times more oil,
coal, and gas in known
reserves than what
climate scientists have
determined is safe to
burn. We have to keep
up to 2/3 of fossil fuels
underground.
divestment

26. divestment
Institutions and investors worth $3.4 trillion now committed to
fossil fuel divestment.
Growth of over 80x, from $50 billion in Sept 2014
EY survey: two-thirds of investors concerned about stranded asset
risk
36% of investors divested over last 12 months
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England:
The carbon budget renders ‘the vast majority of reserves
“stranded” – oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable’
The abrupt transition to a low-carbon future is ‘a financial stability
risk’

27. “Managing emissions won’t do; the power
of the fossil fuel complex is upstream
where the rules of the game are written,
capital is amassed, technological
experiments are conducted, and wealth
is accumulated.
The end of the fossil fuel era starts with
sources of power - energetic, economic
and institutional on the one hand, and
place based, ecological, and spiritual on
the other.
For that, there is no better policy
direction than to deliberately and
gracefully leave fossil fuels in the
ground”
Princen, T., Manno, J. and Martin, P.,
2015, p. 360. (emphasis added)

29. “Linking fossil fuel subsidy reform and emission pricing to
investments in public goods would thus greatly reduce
concerns that environmental quality is paid for by the
poorest segments of the population. This approach would
also be well aligned with the SDG agenda, which aims at
promoting human well-being without undermining the
integrity of the natural environment”.
Jakob and Jan Christoph Steckel (2010), p.18
Redirect public subsides from carbon to renewables, public
transportation and other public goods for example

30. democratic disruption and social
mobilisation
While largely a macro-level/high level and policy set of
proposals, the Just Transition idea does also lead to
recommendations for democratic citizenship and civil society
action
“Political action by civil society will be required to accelerate
the phased ending of the fossil fuel era. More than that, it
must end it in such a manner that the transition to a low- or
post-carbon energy future minimizes injustices of that
transition and maximizes its democratic character.
It can and should do this through reframing fossil fuels as
having now reached the point where their continued use is
destructive, biophysically and ecologically unsustainable,
perpetuates injustices, secrecy, lack of transparency and
accountability—and propagates major geopolitical tensions”.
(Healy and Barry, 2017: 456)

31. “Civil society and grassroots action we believe are and will
continue to be central,
This would also include non-violent civil disobedience against
carbon power stations and against unconventional or ‘sub-
prime’ fossil fuel extraction such as fracking.
It would also include campaigns against the ‘science fiction’-like
techno-optimism of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), or
geoengineering proposals for solar radiation management”
(Barry et al, 2015: 16; emphasis added)

32. disruption
A just energy transition also requires ‘disruptive innovations’
such as speeding up the process of decarbonisation by
divesting from carbon energy.
Here the recent historic decision by the Irish state to divest
from fossil fuels is an encouraging development, alongside
other divestment initiatives.
The Irish decision also underscores the centrality of the state
in any just energy transition, using regulation to drive socio-
technical innovations, which should be extended to the state
enabling and supporting the democratisation of low carbon
energy production, such as community-owned renewable
energy

33. ‘full spectrum innovation’
Similar to imperative to move beyond a ‘fuel focus’ in
energy transitions, we also need to move beyond a narrow
technological-cum-commercial view of innovation
A just energy transition requires social innovations not
simply in low carbon lifestyles but also
experiments in low energy living and communities,
where high quality lives, jobs and communities are based
on using less not more (carbon or low carbon) energy
… focusing on the untapped potential of energy
conservation, efficiency and reduction.
..and ‘unlock’ innovation from being narrowly viewed in
technological terms and/or commercial/business terms

34. Trade union perspective
“Expressions of energy democracy presently remain very much
on the margins of the global economy and they are a long way
from disrupting the established energy order. But this could
change—especially if unions become seriously engaged.” (TUED,
2015: 1)
But not just energy transition but also energy
efficiency/conservation …
“It is therefore important to challenge any scenario that sees
expanding energy use as inevitable. A comprehensive trade union
approach to energy transition should be as concerned about
conserving energy as it should be about generating it”. (ibid.,: 2)
And perhaps energy reduction/energy descent?

35. democratic ownership of low carbon
energy as a public good
“Unlike other countries (Germany, Canada, Denmark, the UK),
however, there has been almost no local investment,
ownership or involvement of local communities in […] wind
farm developments..” (IMPACT, 2017:16)
Just Transition is the “opportunity to give citizens a greater
stake in low-carbon development through much greater
levels of local authority and community ownership of future
solar PV, wind farm, biomass and waste-to-energy
developments” (IMPACT, 2017: 6).
“SIPTU campaigns to prevent the privatisation of Dublin Bus,
Irish Rail and Irish Water. Public goods in public ownership are
central to the concept of a just, low-carbon transition as
publicly [sic] are pivotal to low emissions as well as energy and
resource security” (SIPTU, 2017: 14; emphasis added).

36. State, energy and democracy
Mobilising the ‘patient capital’ of the state for rapid and
urgent decarbonisation?
But requires democratic moblisation, citizen
advocacy/support and broad coalition of diverse interests
“The basic principle behind a public goods approach to energy
transition is simple: the future of human civilization is at stake,
and everyone will therefore benefit from a planned, orderly,
and transparent energy transition that devolves as much power
as possible to workers, communities, and municipalities.
However, governments will have an important role. A massive
deployment of renewable energy will require high levels of
planning and coordination in order to ensure that the right mix
of renewables is developed”. (TUED, 2015: 45)

37. “The transition from fossil-fuel-dominated energy systems
to more renewable-based energy opens an opportunity for
shifting technologies as well shifting social and political
dynamics through democratic re-alignment of these
sociotechnical systems.
Energy democracy provides a set of goals and policy
instruments for resisting the dominant energy regime
while reclaiming and democratically restructuring energy
systems, sectors and institutions”.
(Burke and Stephens, 2017: 45)

38. Beyond carbon and beyond
orthodox GDP measured economic
growth?
A just energy transition may require not simply moving
beyond carbon and the creation of a green/low carbon/
regenerative economy but also beyond orthodox economic
growth, perhaps the most disruptive innovation of all
needed to transition beyond our currently sub-optimal and
ecocidal energy and development trajectory.
At the very least it opens up the opportunity or necessity for
rethinking our economic model and ideas of development
and progress in the context of climate breakdown, low
carbon energy transitions in the 21st century and avoiding
the worse impacts of climate breakdown

39. References
1.‘Catalysing and Characterising Transitions’ – 3 yr Irish EPA
project mapping the RoI low energy transition (2014-2017)
https://www.qub.ac.uk/research-
centres/TheInstituteofSpatialandEnvironmentalPlanning/Impact/CurrentResearchProjects/CCTr
ansitions/
2. Barry, J et al (2015)
https://www.academia.edu/23407456/Low_Carbon_Transitions_and_Post-
Fossil_Fuel_Energy_Transformations_as_Political_Struggles_Analysing_and_Overcoming_C
arbon_Lock_In
3. Healy, N and Barry, J (2017)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517303683
4. Barry, J and Mercier, S (2018)
https://medium.com/@johnbarry_90904/barry-
mercier-89d92079701f

40. Role of ‘crisis’ in motivating, facilitating energy
transitions and possible ‘carbon unlocking’
“We never know
when the winds of
change will blow,
but when they do
we must always
have our sails at
the ready”
E.F. Schumacher
“the possibility exists that policy makers
may have to wait for a focusing event,
such as a recognized climate crisis,
before implementing new policy
frameworks” (Unruh, 2002: 323; emphasis
added)