Cement Industries Prospects

Short Presentation
Presented
Ventura Securities Ltd.
by
on
CEMENT INDUSTRY & STOCKS
WE LIKE

Cement Stocks – A Compelling Investment Story
7.5
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India
China
Korea
Mexico
Australia
USA
UK
Spain
Canada
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
Brazil
Russia
%
2015-2017E Average GDP growth rate
India – Fastest growing economy in the world
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4%
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16%
1990-91
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2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16P
2016-17E
2017-18E
Cement Volume growth Real GDP Long-run Median Growth multiple (RHS)
Growth
multiple:
1.2x
Growth
multiple:
1.1x
Exp.growth
multiple: 1.2x
Cement sector has outpaced GDP growth – long run median growth multiple is 1.2x
We anticipate cement dispatches to increase from 258 mn tones in FY15 to ~320 mn
tones in FY18 at CAGR of 7.6%.

Cement sector demand break-up
Particulars ( in crore units) Urban Rural Total
Current housing shortage 1.9 4 5.9
Required housing units by 2022 2.6-2.9 2.3-2.5 4.9-5.4
Total Need 4.4-4.8 6.3-6.5 10.7-11.3
Housing: Current situation and Future Requirements
NITI AYOG
Directional Framework
2015
Railways:
USD133.5 bn earmarked
for the next 5 years
Roads:
USD 32.4 bn earmarked
during 2012-17
Sagarmala Project:
USD16 bn to be spent on
completion
Inland waterways
2 National Waterways to
be built at a combined
cost of ~ USD 3.7 bn
Housing For All
Making availbale 2 cr
urban houses and 4 cr
rural houses
Infrastructure Investments planned as per the NITI Ayog framework
Industrial and commercial
construction to receive a
boost:
• NITI Ayog
•Make in India
•Smart Cities Mission
•Atal Mission for Rejuvenation
and Urban Transformation

Urban: 1.48 crs
Rural: 2.72 crs
Urban: 1.57 crs
Rural: 0.77 crs
Urban: 1.69 crs
Rural: 2.50 crs
Urban: 1.31 crs
Rural: 0.87 crs
Urban: 0.22 crs
Rural: 0.44 crs
Housing requirements
by 2022; North and East
have the highest
requirements
Investment Commitment
greater than Rs 71k crore
from large corporate;
Could be home to the
biggest IT park
1k kms state highway to
be converted to national
highways; secured Rs 62k
crore commitment from
large corporates
Clearances of
several Coal fields,
offshore terminal by
Hiranandani Grp
Indian railways andAlstom
setting up locomotive factory
project at Rs 35k crore
Make in India
has attracted Rs
7.5L crore
investment
Three New
industrial
townships
planned
NE Potential:
•Rs 5k crore telecom
project
• Trade Potential
between NE andASEAN
countries – Inland
Corridor/Waterways/
Trans Himalayan
Highway
•Rs 92k worth of road
and railway projects
Ultratech, Birla Corp, Adani
Power , Tatas, Barmer
Lignite and other corporate
planning expansions in the
cement, power, mining and
other infra sectors
•GSFC to invest Rs 10k
crore for 4 new projects in
Dahej
• Cargo Airport and Metro
planned
•Vibrant Gujarat/’GIFT’ city
have attracted huge
investment in Infra
Proposed capital Amravati
to attract investments for
infra development
25,000 hectres of land bank
available for infra projects, RIL
alone to invest 46k crore in
defence, IT parks
State-wise
infrastructure
investment
potential;
prospects look
bright

Year Acquirer
Acquired
Company
Location
Capacity (
in mnt)
Investment
(Rs crs)
EV/Tn
($)
Particulars
2013 Barrings Lafarge
Central & East
India
8.4 1456 160 Lafarge divested 14% stake in its assets
2013 Blackstone Sree Jayajothi AP 3.2 550 150-160 Acquires 53% stake from Shriram group
2013 Ambuja ACC Across India 30.5 3500 110 Holcim sold its stake in ACC to Ambuja
2013 Ultratech
JPA's Gujarat
assets
Gujarat 4.8 3800 124
3.6MT clinker, 90 years of limestone reserves, captive
jetty, 57.5 MW of power capacity
2014 Vicat Group
Sagar's stake in
JV
Karnataka 2.75 435 150
Vicat acquires 47% stake in Sagar, plant has access to
300 MT of limestone reserves and operational captive
power capacity 30MW, approvals for expansion also in
place
2014
Sagar
Cements
BMM AP 1 540 90
Captive thermal power plant, limestone reserves of 155
MT
2014
Shree
Cement
JP's North Assets Haryana 1.5 360 36 JP's Panipat Grinding Unit
2014
Dalmia
Cement
JPA's Bokaro JV Jharkhand 2.1 690 90 Plant has 30 year contract for clinker and slag
2014 Ultratech JP's MP assets
MP (Satna
cluster)
4.9 5400 140 5.2 clinker capacity and 180 MW power plant
2015 Birla Corp Lafarge Chattisgarh 5.5 5000 150 As a part of the CCI for Holcim Lafarge merger
2016 Biral Corp Reliance Cements MP and UP 5.5 4800 130 Sufficient limestone resevers, captive power plant
2016 Ultratech
JPA Cement
assets
MP UP AP,
Uttarakhand
22.4 16970 110
Limestone reserves available but MMDRA regulations on
mine transfer fee awaited
M&A activity in the cement sector since 2013
Consolidation to lead to pricing stability

60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
in mn tonnes
Capacity Demand Utilization levels (RHS)
Limited additions + Demand revival = Higher utilization levels

Regional Dynamics
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
in mn tonnes
Capacity Demand Utilization (RHS)
North: Surplus capacity of ~20 mnt, limited additions to ensure improvement in utilizations
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
in mn tonnes
South: Demand likely to revive after a subdued period of 5 years, utilizations to cross 60%
0%
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40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
in mn tonnes
East: Spree of capacity additions has bought down utilizations, demand remains robust
0%
10%
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30%
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50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
in mn tonnes
West: Demand growth has outpaced capacity growth; utilization levels the highest

Pricing Trends
200
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450
May-11
Jul-11
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Nov-11
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Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
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Mar-16
May-16
Rs per bag
Avg West Prices Avg North Prices Avg South prices Avg East Prices

Sanghi Industries – About the company
• As of FY16, it has a grinding capacity of 4.1 mn tones and a clinker capacity of 3.3 mn
tones.
• It also has a 63 MW captive thermal power plant, a water de-salination facility, and
captive port in Kutch which can handle 1 MMTPA of cargo.
• Dealership strength is ~1500.
Sanghi Industries - Snapshot
Source: Sanghi, Ventura Research

Sanghi Industries – Investment Rationale
Strategic location provides inherent advantage
• West India has witnessed a robust cement demand growth of 7.7% CAGR during FY11-
FY15; demand growth of CAGR of 7.3% during FY16-18 expected.
• Capacity additions limited at 1.1% CAGR during the same period, cement prices to
remain firm.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
in mn tonnes
FY11-FY15:
Capacity CAGR: 5.7%
Demand CAGR: 7.7%
Average utilization level: 76%
FY16-FY18 Estimated:
Capacity CAGR: 1.1%
Demand CAGR: 7.3%
Average utilization level: 88.1%
West: Demand growth has outpaced capacity growth; utilization levels the highest in the industry
Source: Ventura Research
Make in India has attracted
Rs 7.5L crore investment
•GSFC to invest Rs 10k crore
for 4 new projects in Dahej
• Cargo Airport and Metro
planned
•Vibrant Gujarat/’GIFT’ city
have attracted huge investment
in Infra
• Govt. has invited tenders worth Rs 100
crore for up gradation of beach
infrastructure
• Govt has announced infra projects worth
Rs 10k crore to be executed in the next 2-
3 years
Infra projects worth Rs 73k crore to be launched
in 2016
Key Projects:
Rs 13k crore Mumbai Coastal Road to connect
south and North Mumbai
• First Phase of Navi Mumbai airport
•Three Metro corridors of 68.5 kms
Strong growth to continue: Major infra activity lined up in the West

Sanghi Industries - Investment Rationale
Capacity expansion to fuel top-line growth
• Sanghi revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 11.5% to Rs 1434 crore in FY19E
• While capacity has grown at a moderate pace of 8% CAGR during FY10-16, the
management has drawn up plans to double the existing capacity by FY22.
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in Rs crs
Cash Flow from Op Activity Capex
Cash flow generation healthy to meet capex requirements

Sanghi’s 5 year average EBITDA margin stood at 18.7%, nearly 350 bps higher than the industry
average during the same period.
Operational efficiencies provide the extra edge

Captive thermal based power plant = fuel savings
• Sanghi has a 63 MW captive thermal power plant, with peak power requirement of 42 MW,
this translates to surplus power of 20 MW which can cater to future power requirements.
•Power cost per ton has averaged at Rs 1100-Rs 1200 per ton (similar to the industry average)
before dropping to ~Rs 900 per ton in FY16
Adequate limestone reserves ensure scalability
•Sanghi’s limestone mine has estimated reserves of close to 1000 MM valid upto 2046.
•Reserves are capable of servicing requirements of a 10 mtpa plant for 60-65 years.

…However, freight costs high due to high lead distance
•Sanghi’s freight cost is Rs ~1200/ton, higher than the industry average of Rs 800 per ton
Captive Port in Bhuj:
• Handles importof coal
• Dispatchesto Maharashtra
and exportmarkets
End Markets
Private berth in Dharamtar
Port:
• For dispatchesto Mumbai
PlannedPortin Surat
Captive Port in Navlakhi
Sanghi’s port and cargo handling facilities
Mode of transport Cost of transport ( per tonne per km)
Road Rs 1.5
Railway Re 1
Sea 50-70 paise
Sea-route the cheapest logistical option for cement companies
Plant facilities in close proximity to each other

Triggers for EBITDA margin expansion
i) Higher proportion of PPC cement:
The management aims to improve the OPC:PPC sales ratio which is currently at 75:25, to
40:60 in the coming two years.
iii) Subdued coal prices
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued in the near term, resulting in savings in fuel costs
for players in the cement industry in the near term.
iii) Sanghi will be able to save on freight costs post the commissioning of the captive port in
Surat
iv) Sanghi has plans to set-up a Waste heat recovery plant in the next 1-2 years: Waste
Heat recovery plants can yield 30-35% savings in power costs.
Accordingly, we anticipate the company to clock a EBITDA growth of 11% CAGR during
FY16-19 to Rs 328 crores by FY19, and EBITDA margin to expand to ~23% by FY19E,
from ~18% in FY16

Sanghi Industries Industries – Financial Outlook
We expect Sanghi’s revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 11.5% to Rs 1434 crore in
FY19E on the back of an improved demand scenario and capacity expansion.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in mn tonnes
Capacity Capacity Utilization (RHS)
150
650
1150
1650
2150
2650
3150
3650
4150
4650
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5 FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in mn tonnes in Rs/tonne
Volume Net Realisation per tonne (RHS)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in Rs crs
Revenues Revenue Growth (RHS)
FY12-16:
Revenue CAGR: 1.5%
FY16-19:
Revenue CAGR: 11.5%

Sanghi Industries Industries – Financial Outlook
EBITDA is expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 20% to Rs 328 crore by FY19 on the back
of higher PPC sales and subdued coal costs. Accordingly EBITDA margin is expected to
expand from ~18% in FY16 to ~23% by FY19.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in Rs crs
EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)
FY12-16:
EBITDA CAGR: 0.2%
FY16-19:
EBITDA CAGR: 11%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
in Rs crs
Adj PAT PAT margin (RHS)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16*
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
D/E Interest Coverage (RHS)

Sanghi Industries – Valuation
We initiate coverage on Sanghi as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹107, representing a
potential upside of 56% over a period of 18 months. We have arrived at our target price by
assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9x to FY19E EBITDA estimate of Rs 328 crores.
500
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3500
Apr-14
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Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
EV 7X 8X 9X 10X 11X
Sanghi’s EV/EBITDA multiple trend

Sagar Cements– About the company
• Sagar Cements is a south based cement manufacturer with a cement capacity of 3 mtpa
and a clinker capacity of ~ 2.3 mtpa
• In FY15, it acquired BMM Cements for Rs 540 crores which has a cement capacity of 1
mtpa and a clinker capacity of 0.7 mtpa. In June 2016, Sagar received an approval to
acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali Cements for Rs 60 crores. It further plans to
increase the capacity of this unit to 0.3 mtpa. Post both these acquisitions, Sagar Cement’s
consolidated capacity will increase ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa in FY16.
Sagar Cements - Snapshot
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
Sagar Cements (Standalone)
FY16 Revenues: Rs 622 crores
Cement:3.0 mtpa
Clinker: 2.3 mtpa
Capacity
Utilization:55%
Capacity Geography Mix Channel Mix Freight Mix
AP & T: 42%
Karnataka:10.5%
TN: 16.8%
Maharashtra: 19%
Orrisa: 9%
Trade: 75%
Non-Trade: 25%
Road: 100%

Sagar Cements– Investment Rationale
• Well poised to capture demand revival in the South
South India has witnessed a five year lull in cement demand. However, with the political resolution
of Telangana, limited planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated pick-up in
construction and irrigation projects, cement demand in the south is expected to revive going
forward.
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
70.8%
53.7% 51.0% 54.0%
38.8% 41.7%
7.0%
13.9%
14.0% 11.0%
15.1% 10.5%
5.3%
11.8% 13.3% 10.0%
16.1% 16.8%
9.3% 11.8% 13.5% 16.0%
20.0% 19.0%
4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 6.0% 7.1% 8.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa Others
Diversifying geographic base, but South continues to dominate
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
in m n tonnes
Capacity Dem and Utilization (RHS)
South Industry: Demand likely to revive after a subdued period of 5 years, utilizations to cross 60%
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa
in mn tonnes
FY11 FY16
Only market to
de-grow
Re-alignment of markets augurs well for future prospectsMajor infra activity lined up in key markets

• Acquisition of BMM results in multiple synergies
In August 2015, Sagar completed its acquisition of BMM Cements for Rs 570 crores, funded
primarily from the profits booked through the JV.
About BMM:
Capacity: 1 mn ton
Location: Karnataka- Andhra Pradesh
Border
Capacity Utilization: 45% in FY16
Power: 25 MW Captive Power Plant
Limestone: 20 years mining lease granted
in 2016
in Rs crs FY14 FY15
Volumes ( in mn tonnes) 0.348 0.158
Realisations (Rs/Tonne) 4110.0 4321.0
Revenues 149.5 115.5
EBITDA -9.7 6.0
PAT -65.7 -23.4
Fixed Asset 396.2 439.9
Reduction in freight cost:
Sagar Cements,
Mattampally
Pre-acquisition distribution model – High lead
distance as far off markets services
Sagar Cements,
Mattampally
BMM, Gudipadu
Post BMM acquisition– Same markets can now
be serviced through a shorter lead distance
Reduced tax liability

• Acquisition of BMM results in multiple synergies
In August 2015, Sagar completed its acquisition of BMM Cements for Rs 570 crores, funded
primarily from the profits booked through the JV.
ii) Reduction in power cost:
• Unlike Sagar, BMM has a
25 MW captive coal based
power plant. With captive
requirements of only 10
MW, BMM has a PPA to sell
15 MW to AP Genco @ Rs
5.4/unit.
• Sagar is evaluating the
options of continuing its
contract with AP Genco
versus increasing captive
consumption.
Sagar’s power cost per tone reduced from Rs 1220 per tone in
FY15 to Rs 1120 per tone in FY16 owing to:
i) Captive consumption in BMM’s plant, and
ii) Fall in coal prices.
0
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140
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
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Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
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Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
in $/Ton
Australian Coal Price
Reduction coal prices
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
in KWH
Electrcity consumption per unit of production
Declining electricity consumption per unit
0
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1600
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
in Rs per
tonne
Power Cost per tonne
Power cost per tone also declining

Limestone reserves adequate to support any expansions
Sagar’s limestone mine is within 4 kms of its plant. The mine has reserves of more than 1000
mt, which can serve Sagar’s requirements for 100+ years. BMM, too, has received a 20 year
mining lease in 2016, with reserves of 155 mt.
Well-thought out expansion strategy
With a hands-on management approach to the situation on the ground, they have adopted a
strategy to double their capacity every 12 years, timing it with the next up-cycle in the cement
industry.
0
50
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300
FY90
FY91
FY92
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
in mn tonnes
~6% CAGR
~10% CAGR
~6% CAGR
~10% CAGR
~6% CAGR
Cement cycles since 1990

Sagar Cements– Financial Outlook
Revenues expected to grow at a CAGR of 16%
We expect Sagar’s revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to Rs 1178 crore in FY19E on
the back of a ~12% CAGR in volumes. We expect sales volume to touch 2.8 mn tones and net
realization to clock at Rs 4250 per ton by FY19.
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60.0%
70.0%
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5.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in mtpa
Capacity Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
0
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4500
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in Rs per tonnein mtpa
Volumes Net Realisation per tonne
Utilizations to gradually improve Volumes and realizations to pick up
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Rs crs
Revenues % Growth (RHS)
Revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16%

Sagar Cements– Financial Outlook
EBITDA and PAT to grow at a steady pace
EBITDA is expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 23% to Rs 230 crore by FY19 on the back of
savings in freight and power costs as the synergies from BMM’s acquisition starts to kick in.
Accordingly EBITDA margin is expected to expand from ~16.5% in FY16 to ~19.5% by FY19.
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5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
50
100
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250
in Rs crs
EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)
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2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
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10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-50
0
50
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350
in Rs crs
PAT PAT margin (RHS)
EBITDA margin set to expand PAT to grow at a robust pace
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in Rs crs
D/E Interest Coverage (RHS)
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
RoE RoCE
Debt levels comfortable Return ratios to improve

Sagar Cements– Valuation
We initiate coverage on Sagar Cements as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹941, representing
a potential upside of 38% over a period of 18 months. We have arrived at our target price
by assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x to FY19E EBITDA estimate of Rs 230 crores.
Sagar’s EV/EBITDA multiple trend
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
EV 7X 8.5X 10X 11.5X 13X

Ventura Securities Limited
Corporate Office: 8th Floor, ‘B’ Wing, I Think Techno Campus, Pokhran Road no. 02, Off Eastern Express Highway , Thane (West) 400 607. This report is
neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no
responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities
mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above
information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.

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