Alt - Cement Sector Call - Sept 28'16

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Sector Update - Cement
AsiaPac | Pakistan | Equities
Construction & Materials
Equity Research Analyst
Ali Shah Jumani
a.jumani@alt-research.com
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
This report has been prepared by Alternate Research and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances it is to be used
or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This information has been compiled from sources we believe to be
reliable, but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report
constitute our present judgment only and are subject to change without notice. This report is intended for persons having professional
experience in matters relating to investments.
Pakistan Cement Sector
Industry dispatches FY16 & Industry Sales Mix
The Pakistan cement sector has been amongst the most significant contributors
to market buoyancy during FY15 – 16 considering the political and economic
stability, the country has embarked to in the recent times. Although, afflicted to
many trials since the dropping demand of the cumulative effect of the global
financial crisis of 2008, anti-dumping duty imposed by South Africa and hindered
exports as cheap Iranian cement ruled over the show, until the sector finally
took off after FY14.
Incorporating the following interrelated demand triggers i.e. 1) CPEC, 2) PSDP
utilization, 3) Mega housing development projects, and 4) Expansions, we derive
that the sector has potential but if all the announced expansions materialize this
might ignite price war cutting the margins in future.
Local demand – Growth prospects
Security measures taken by the GOP and overall economic stability could be
triumphal for all industries, whereas the local demand surging due to high Public
Sector Development Program (PSDP) allocation, Mega development projects
and implementation of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has made the
sector a good catch for any investor. As per FY16 the overall dispatches
expanded by +9.81%YoY in comparison to last year, while the local dispatches
grew by 17%YoY. Regional wise local dispatches in North increased by
15.39%YoY while South witnessed exceptional growth of 24.9%YoY.
Export demand subdued
The imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Africa, international capacity
expansion and availability of cheap Iranian cement are major culprit for
shrinking exports. Total export dispatches clocked at 5.87MT depicting a decline
of 18.38%YoY. North contribution to this decline was restricted to -13.77%YoY
owning to higher demand from India (+43%YoY). However, with a number of key
export markets (Nigeria, Tanzania, Mozambique, Iraq, Ethiopia and DR Congo)
for South players where local industry are expanding their capacity in
conjunction with anti-dumping duties imposed by SA resulted in decline of
25.92%YoY.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
10
20
30
40
50
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Export % of Total (RHS) Local % of Total (RHS) Industry Dispatches (LHS)
Local Dispatches (LHS) Export Dispatches (LHS)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
South contribution in total sales
North contribution in total sales
South and North Contribution to
Total Sales
Source: APCMA, Alt-R Team
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12 FY13FY14FY15FY16
Afghanistan India Others Clinker
Export Sales Mix
Stock Current Price TP-June’17 Upside%
ACPL PKR 259/sh PKR 316/sh 22%
MLCF PKR 96.5/sh PKR 115/sh 19%
DGKC PKR 188/sh PKR 233/sh 24%
KOHC PKR 257/sh PKR 330/sh 28%
LUCK PKR 670/sh PKR 777/sh 16%
Source: Alt-R Team
MT

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Sector Update - Cement
Supply/Demand Outlook
Historically, cement demand has strong positive correlation with PSDP
investment, property presales, as well as infrastructure development. Of
these determining factors, infrastructure development on back of CPEC and
higher PSDP allocation is positive in the near term, as we expect robust
economic growth. However, as far as housing sector is concerned we expect
slight slowdown in the construction activities for limited time owning to tax
policies introduced by government in Budget FY17. Since the arrival of
Nawaz government construction spending have been on the rise with CAGR
of 11.89% for the period FY12-FY16. Government continuing the trend has
allotted federal PSDP amounting to PKR 800bn in FY17. We expect this trend
to continue in future as well as Nawaz government have always focused on
developing infrastructure in order to boost the economy. Large housing
backlog + growing middle-class = robust long term demand; but there are
headwinds in the near-term. The property sector will remain bullish over the
long term supported by the large housing deficit, a young population, and
urbanization.
we expect total cement dispatches, mainly domestic dispatches, to increase
robustly in near future. Considering both historical growth and future
scenario we expect total cement dispatches to grow at CAGR of 6.6% from
FY17 till FY21 against CAGR of 4.6% from FY12 till FY16. Currently cement
industry is operating at capacity utilization of 85%, we expect this utilization
rate to increase to 88% in FY17 with increasing demand but will start
dwindling once expansion from different players starts to materialize and
reach 70% in FY19 and move upwards from there. Exports have been
shrinking over the last few years and outlook over the next 2‐3 years is not
particularly bright. We expect exports to shrink further in future resulting in
industry sales mix of 90:10 with 90% being domestic market.
Construction spending as % of
GDP
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
(Bn)
Construction (LHS)
Construction as a % of GDP (RHS)
*GDP of Pakistan (at current basic prices)
Source: PBS, Alt-R Team
Industry Production Capacity, Dispatches and Utilization
MT
MT
Dispatches Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F
Local Dispatches Export Dispatches
Total Dispatches
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F
Production Capacity (LHS) Total Dispatches (LHS)
Capacity Utilization (RHS)

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Sector Update- Cement
The Cement/GDP multiplier Theory
Cement demand has historically grown in tandem with economic growth
owing to high correlation with gross domestic product (GDP) growth -
directly as well as indirectly. Directly, because infrastructure investment and
construction activity, accounting for +40% of cement demand, are the key
components of GDP. Indirectly, because housing (both rural and urban),
again a key determinant accounting for ~60% of cement demand, depends
on agricultural productivity and income levels, which in turn are the key
components of GDP.
Cement demand in Pakistan historically during expansionary phase has
increased at 2.6x the GDP growth rate. The Cement demand/GDP growth
ratio has remained highly volatile throughout, expanding to 5.6x of GDP
during the upcycle and contracting to -2.3x of GDP during the downcycle.
This growth multiplier has been hovering near 0.78x over FY12-FY15 but
with high allocation in PSDP and boom in construction activities, the
multiplier reached 2.1x in FY16.
Cement/GDP multiplier to recover from lows
Source: APCMA, PBS, Alt-R Team
Given the new government's significant focus on large infrastructure
development, Pak-China corridor, Orange Line Metro Train, "Apna Ghar
Housing Scheme", Smart cities projects, etc in addition to GDP growth to
further expand in future, we expect the Cement/GDP multiplier to bounce
back sharply to its last expansionary phase average of 2.6x over FY17-21. If
cement sector reaches multiple of GDP 2.6x, the cement demand is
expected to clock at 57 million tons by FY21. Historically we have witnessed
similar demand pull in 2003 owning to 60% higher Public Sector
Development Projects (PSDP) allocation, 4.7% GDP growth, and increasing
number of real estate development projects for commercial and residential
use.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17F
FY18F
FY19F
FY20F
FY21F
GDP Growth Cement growth Multiplier (RHS)

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Significant new capacity in the next four years
*Green Field Projects
**Undecided Projects
Note: DGKC and LUCK has undertaken both Green Field and Brown Field
Source: APCMA, Company Notice, Alt-R Team
Owning to positive future outlook of demand, many players in the industry
announced their plans for expansion. We believe the new supply will be
twice that of cement demand growth, utilization will drop below 70% by
2019. Between 2001 and 2021F, we note 4 distinct stages in the demand
and supply dynamics of Pakistan cement industry. From 2001 to 2005,
supply was more or less constant while demand grew at CAGR of 13% with
increasing GDP growth, lifting utilization gradually from 64% to 91%.
Between 2006 and 2010, a period of aggressive expansions, the unexpected
property boom drove cement demand to the roof (17% CAGR). During that
period, incremental supply (27.43m tons) was more than of incremental
demand (17.87m tons), pushing domestic utilization rate to under 80%. A
price war was witnessed, during which retail cement prices fell 23%, which
ended up with no conqueror. Then came the period of stagnation from 2011
to 2014 as cement dispatches registered CAGR of just 3% owning to worst
ever floods in northern region in 2010 resulting lower investment by
government in PSDP consequential sluggish GDP growth. What added fuel to
fire was power shortage and increased tariffs imposed by government on
manufacturing sector.
We are now entering the fourth phase, where incremental supply will be
significantly more than incremental demand. We forecast new supply in the
next four years to reach 21.8m tons compared to only 11.4m tons forecast
incremental demand. The biggest incremental supply will come in 2019,
which would push utilization to 70% for the first time since 2003. By 2020,
we estimate utilization would start increasing given no new player enter the
market or any further announcement by remaining industry players.
Moreover, we believe the history might repeat itself and a possibility of
price war can be foreseen in FY19 especially if China acquires a cement
company or establish a new cement production facility in Pakistan. Once the
expanded plants come on stream a margin erosion could take place as large
players try to gain market share.
Incremental Supply Outpaces New
Demand
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F
Incremental Demand
Incremental Effective Supply*
Utilization Rate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17F
FY18F
FY19F
FY20F
FY21F
Production Capacity (LHS) Total Despatches (LHS)
Capacity Utilization (RHS)
Capacityalmost flat for 5
years, Demand growing in
line with GDP
Aggressive expansions and
high demand on back of high
PSDP and GDP growth
Floods, power shortage,
& low PSDP spending
Aggressive expansions and high
demand on back of high PSDP,
CPEC and booming housing sector
Cement Supply, Demand and Utilization rate
*Production Capacity accounts for Expansion of LUCK, DGKC, POWER, ACPL, MLCF, CHCC, KOHC, FECTO, GWLC and PIOC
Source: Industry sources, Alt-R Team
Existing
Capacity
Existing
Additional
Capacity
Total
Capacity
After
Expansion
Year of
Completion
ACPL 1.80 3.9% 1.20 3.00 4.4% FY17
CHCC 1.10 2.4% 1.30 2.40 3.6% FY17
DGKC* 4.22 9.3% 4.90 9.12 13.5% FY18
FECTC* 0.82 1.8% 0.95 1.77 2.6% FY18
GWLC 2.11 4.6% 2.40 4.51 6.7% FY18
KOHC** 2.68 5.9% 2.30 4.98 7.4% FY19
LUCK* 7.39 16.2% 3.55 10.94 16.2% FY18
MLCF 3.37 7.4% 2.10 5.47 8.1% FY19
PIOC* 2.03 4.5% 2.10 4.13 6.1% FY19
POWER* 0.95 2.1% 0.95 1.90 2.8% FY19
Others 19.16 42% 19.16
Total 45.62 100% 21.75 67.37
Source: APCMA, BR, Alt-R Team
17%
83%
FY16
19%
81%
FY19F
South North
Pre & Post Expansion Capacity
Share
Historical and Planned Capacities
MT
MT

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Manufacturing Costs & Margins
Source: Company Accounts, Index Mundi, Alt-R
Manufacturing costs to remain subdued due to soft Coal & FO prices
As the whole cement industry relies upon Fuel & Power which owns around
68% of the total manufacturing cost, any fluctuations amongst the prices of
Coal, FO and Gas shakes the sector profoundly. It has been noticed during
the current period that the key players inclusive of (KOHC, MLCF, CHCC and
LUCK) took a shift utilizing FO based Captives to reap the profits through
subdued furnace oil prices while the ones deprived of FO or Coal based
captive power plants or having heavy reliance over national grid such as
PIOC and ACPL were also benefitted through a cut in national grid/unit cost
during the current period.
Cement sector margins have recovered strongly post the last price war,
improving to 44% in FY16 from 21% in FY10, pricing discipline having lasted
for the last 5 years coupled with subdued coal prices (‐51% over since FY11).
Considering local cement prices are already at an all‐time high of
PkR540/bag and positing that the coal price slump has largely played out
(even as China and EU see lower coal demand), industry margins are likely to
stabilize close to current levels where we believe the existing pricing
discipline should persist. Recently a rise in coal prices were witnessed hitting
average price of USD 63/ton in July from low of USD 49/ton in January. The
main reason for the price rise was China’s decision to limit its coal mines to
producing just 276 days a year – instead of the previous 330 days.
Nonetheless, we do not expect the high coal prices to be sustained for
longer period as coal prices above USD 70/ton could trigger production
resumption spree among small coal mines who stopped production due to
sluggish prices.
We believe oil prices will spike for short time owning to expected decision of
OPEC and non-OPEC member production freeze but the price will come
down and average between USD 50 - USD 60 for the next 3 years.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Avg. S.A Coal Prices per Ton Average GPM
Gross Margins and Coal Price USD
(LHS)(RHS)

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
Relative Valuation
Stock Performance
Stock performance of Alt-R cement universe (LUCK, DGKC, ACPL,
KOHC, MLCF and CHCC) since start of CY16 has yield 27.05% on
weighted average basis against 20.8% yield of benchmark 100
index showcasing tremendous performance of cement sector. The
high performance of these stocks was attributed to higher cement
dispatches (+9.82%YoY) in FY16 and positive outlook of local
dispatches on back of materialization of CPEC, higher PSDP
allocation and booming housing sector. Besides tremendous uplift
in dispatches, inclusion of Pakistan in MSCI helped cement sector,
especially stocks part of MSCI Emerging Market index, to climbed
new highs. However, due to aggressive expansion plans by almost
all major players in cement sector along with interest of China to
invest in Pakistan’s cement sector caused a fume of over capacity
build-up, a possibility of price war in future and breakage of
cement cartel dejecting some of the gains earned from previously
mentioned factors.
In our cement universe ACPL comes out to be the leader so far in
CY16 posting incredible return of 48.7% in just 9 months. Following
ACPL, CHCC yields 37.7% supported by strong fundamental on
being the first player to come online with expansion.
K-100 LUCK DGKC MLCF ACPL KOHC CHCC W. Avg
Price (Jan 1) 33,229 517.8 154.7 78.3 174.4 243.1 92.9
Current Price 40,135 667.4 188.1 96.0 259.4 258 127.9
CYTD 20.8% 28.9% 21.6% 22.6% 48.7% 6.1% 37.7% 27.05%
0
50
100
150
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
KSE-100 LUCK DGKC MLCF
ACPL KOHC CHCC
*Current prices are closing of 22nd September 2016.
Source: PSX, Alt-R Team
Cement Universe Relative to KSE-100

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
LUCK: Currently stock is trading at PKR 670/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 16.56x. The stock has generated return of 28.9% since
the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x which presents that Lucky Cement is trading at
premium of 19.7%. We believe that as LUCK is the market leader such high P/E is justified however we anticipate that
it will remain between the band of 14x-16x in near future. Furthermore, with expansions underway in South and
North, investment into power sector and joint venture investment in cement plant in DR Congo the future looks bright
for LUCK.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
KSE-100 LUCK
DGKC: Currently stock is trading at PKR 188.25/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 9.38x. The stock has generated return of 21.6%
since the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x which presents that D.G Khan Cement is
trading at discount of 32.2%. We believe, based on relative valuation, there is high upside potential in DGKC scrip.
Furthermore, with Captive Coal Power Project about to complete, DGKC has undertaken to establish Greenfield project
in South along with Brownfield project in North which will help DGKC to increase its margins and market share further
in future hence supporting our valuation.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Average Price P/Ex 4 P/Ex 6
P/Ex 8 P/Ex 10 P/Ex 12
-
50
100
150
200
250
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
KSE-100 DGKC
Relative Valuation

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
MLCF: Currently stock is trading at PKR 96.5/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 10.37x. The stock has generated return of 22.6% since
the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x which presents that Maple Leaf Cement is
trading at discount of 25.1%. We believe, based on relative valuation, there is high upside potential in MLCF scrip.
Moreover, following the footstep of LUCK, MLCF has also diversified its business by investing into Maple Leaf Power
Limited (MLPL) for setting 40MW imported coal-fired power plant at its plant site. MLCF has also announced to
undertake expansion of its current plant taking total capacity to 5.47MT by FY19.
ACPL: Currently stock is trading at PKR 259.39/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 10.28x. The stock has generated return of 48.7%
since the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x which presents that Attock Cement is
trading at discount of 25.7%. Our DCF valuation showed a TP of PKR 322/sh for June’17 showing upside potential of
24.14%. Further, valuation based on P/E analysis show that there is high upside potential in ACPL scrip as it is at
discount of 25.7% from average universe P/E hence supporting the DCF valuation. Moreover, the expansion of ACPL
plant is on fast-track and expected to come online by end of CY17 which will make ACPL to increase its market share
further until other players in South comes online.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
KSE-100 MLCF
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
KSE-100 ACPL
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
P/Ex 12
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
P/Ex 12
Relative Valuation

PHONE : +92 21 3432 6917-19
KOHC: Currently stock is trading at PKR 257/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 9.04x. The KOHC performance has been substandard
as it has generated return of just 6.01% since the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x
which presents that Kohat Cement is trading at discount of 34.6%. We believe, based on relative valuation, there is
high upside potential in KOHC scrip. Moreover, the installation of new WHR and decision of expanding its production
facility will help KOHC to witness good margins in future to come.
CHCC: Currently stock is trading at PKR 127.52/sh and at P/E(ttm) of 16.07x. The stock has generated return of 37.7%
since the start of CY16. The P/E(ttm) of Alt-R cement universe trades at 13.83x which presents that Cherat Cement is
trading at premium of 16.2%. We believe the premium is justified as CHCC is the first player to come online with
expansion in North making CHCC a potential candidate to absorb major chunk of increasing demand until other players
enters the race with their new capacities. The CHCC has moved from 12x-14x band to 14x-16x recently and we believe
that it will hover near P/E 16x in near future.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
P/Ex 12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
KSE-100 KOHC
-
50
100
150
200
250
P/Ex 14 P/Ex 16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
KSE-100 CHCC
Relative Valuation

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Alt - Cement Sector Call - Sept 28'16

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