Dilling nccsc april 5 2013


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  • We have a long list of research questions – these are the four that I will focus on today. In a nut shell what we really want to know is this: Federal agencies have been tasked with adaptation soAre they planning for adaptation?If not, why? Is it a logistical problem? Not enough money, personnel, too many more pressing priorities…etc. OR is it something else, perhaps an information problem? Clearly scientists produce a vast amount of information about adaptation across a variety of sectors, but is it usable? Is it at the right scale? Is it understandable? Is it available?
  • Specifically we are focusing on CO, UT and WY - they have large areas of Federal public lands, and the Western Water Assessment based in Boulder has given us funding for our survey and their work focuses on Colorado Utah and Wyoming . The study could be expanded to include other states in the future.
  • To address these questions we have designed a 39 question online surveyThose who actively make land management decisions or who provide information to those making decisionsPlan to do interviews in the futureconstructed partially from previous surveys with some new material. pre-tested for clarity.  administered starting March 9? 2011.  human subjects approval. names obtained from public online databases. voluntary etc.
  • 2010 survey of American climate change beliefs showed 57% believed climate change is real, so our population is a bit skewed toward believing in climate change but this is probably related to the high level of education of most of our respondents
  • Results are preliminary – Asked them first about management challenges without mentioning climate change to see if these answers differed form those w ask later that specifically address adaptation. We had them select which physical / biological challenges and ones we called “other “ challenges that were more social in nature their office faces and then had them rank the top three overall challenges.
  • X axis # responsesMain themes Information Demand!! 3 of top 5 factors preventing planning for adaptation are information related (good news for scientists!) especially since #1 is a scale question (perhaps the easiest to remedy?) lack of info at relevant scales and uncertainty in available info, lack of useful info (useful info could be scale related as well.)budget too lack of specific agency direction are not areas t hat scientists have any control over, but the information needs can be addressed
  • Dilling nccsc april 5 2013

    1. 1. Lisa DillingResearch RoundupUniversity of Colorado BoulderAdaptation Forum atNorth Central Climate Science CenterApril 5, 2013
    2. 2. What factors shapethe adaptive capacityof organizations?How do decisionprocesses incorporateclimate-related riskand opportunity?How caninformation bemore usable indecision making?Overarching Motivation:How can we improve societal outcomes with respect toclimate-related risks?SPARC/NSF:- RSD Carbon science- Science policies for usablescience- Public lands adaptationNat’l climate assessment SHneeds/WWACBRFC stakeholder vulnerabilityand needs assessment/WWAUSDA:Public lands and C decisionsupport toolsCharacterizing the carbonstewardshiplandscape/NOAADrivers ofAdaptation/NOAA/WWASPARC/NSF:- State governance ofwater as adaptivecapacity?- Public lands managementand adaptation (withWWA)Interactions of Droughtand Climate Adaptation –urban watermanagement/NOAA
    3. 3. slide 3Mission: To identify and characterize regional vulnerabilities to climatevariability and change and to develop information, products, and processes toassist decision makers throughout the Intermountain West.What is the Western Water Assessment?• Established in 1999 at University of Colorado-Boulder; one of 11 NOAA-funded RISAs• Serves stakeholders in Colorado, Wyoming, andUtah• Gained particular credibility during focusing eventof 2002 drought• 20+ researchers with expertise in hydrology,climate modeling, social science, policy, and lawCurrent projects include: Snowmelt and RunoffProcesses, Coupled Climate Change-HydrologyModeling, Beetles, CBRFC Flow Forecasts, TribalClimate Preparedness, adaptation andcities, ranchers, farmers, TNC
    4. 4. slide 4Federal land manager climate changeadaptation surveyArchie KM, Dilling L, Milford JB, Pampel FC (2012) Climate Change andWestern Public Lands: a Survey of U.S. Federal Land Managers on theStatus of Adaptation Efforts. Ecology and Society 17:art20.doi:10.5751/ES-05187-170420.4
    5. 5. slide 5Research Questions• There is a national federal mandate to consider climate infederal lands planning, but what does this translate to inpractice in local offices “on the ground”?• What challenges do Western public lands managerscurrently face regarding climate change adaptation?• What tools / resources do they currently use to obtaininformation about climate change? And where do they getthese resources?• Does demand for information vary among agencies?5
    6. 6. slide 66
    7. 7. slide 7Online Survey in 2011 4 agencies: BLM, NPS, USFS, USFWS in threestates, CO WY and UT Decision Makers – managers, planners etc.Methods7
    8. 8. slide 8• 3,100 : 676 responses: 22%• 58% male, 94% white, 95% bachelor’s degree• 47% graduate / professional• 58% Biological sciences• 47 % work in a field office• 62% spend more than half their time each week dealing withland management issues• 73% say climate change is real and already happening now• 85% are moderately or well informed about climate changeDemographics8
    9. 9. slide 9Management ChallengesTop 5 Funding Species and Habitat Management Stakeholder Conflicts Personnel Constraints Conflicting MandatesAcross Agencies Species and Habitat Management Lack of Funding All say Severe9
    10. 10. slide 10Reported adaptation planningArchie et al. 2012
    11. 11. slide 11Adaptation Planning by Federal AgencyArchie et al. 2012* Only significant correlation with planning status was agency
    12. 12. slide 12Planning Constraints12Archie et al. 2012
    13. 13. slide 13Barriers to Planning by Federal AgencyBLM USFSNPS FWS13
    14. 14. slide 14Usefulness of types of climate information14Archie et al. 2012
    15. 15. slide 15Hurdles to implementation of adaptation15Archie et al. 2012
    16. 16. slide 16Conclusions Little current planning for adaptation Lack of information is a barrier to planning across publicland agencies,– but it is not necessarily more important than other barriers i.e.lack of funding The scale of useful information is consistent acrossagencies,– but the need for additional information that these scales variesacross agencies. Lack of public education is seen as a barrier toimplementation Significance of differences across agencies?