The document analyzes immigrant retention rates in New Brunswick using provincial nominee program and healthcare registry data. It finds that about 75% of provincial nominees remain in the province after 1 year, with the retention rate dropping to 60% after 3 years and 50% after 5 years. Retention is highest for immigrants from the Philippines and lowest for China and Vietnam. The analysis will be expanded to include additional data sources to provide more detailed insights into retention and internal mobility patterns of immigrants in New Brunswick.

1. Immigrant Retention and
Internal Mobility in New
Brunswick – Findings to date
and planned analysis
Ted McDonald
Pablo Miah
PETL KT Day
September 10th, 2019

2. Introduction
• The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) sees immigrants as key to the
broader strategy of increasing NB’s working-age population.
• GNB has invested significant resources and effort to attract and encourage
retention of immigrants and refugees in NB.
• This study investigates the number of landings and the retention rates of
immigrants in New Brunswick, with an emphasis on immigrants who
arrived through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).

3. Methods
• This report uses information from GNB’s BizNet and Citizen Database
datasets to estimate immigrant retention rates:
• BizNet contains information of all Provincial Nominees (PNP) immigrating to NB e.g.
landing dates, country of citizenship etc.
• Citizen Database holds information on the province’s Medicare registry, with up-to-
date data on whether individuals still reside in NB.
• For PNP immigrants without landing dates (dependents), activation date in Citizen
Database is used as proxy for arrival to NB.
• Date of termination in Citizen Database indicates exit from the province.

4. Methods
• Two datasets have been linked based on the name, gender, and birthdate
of individuals:
• Approximately 75% for all PNP immigrants and 83% of primary
applicants in BizNet could be linked to Citizen Database.
• Linked Provincial Nominees are used to calculate retention rates for
Arrived PNP Nominees.
• Unlinked Provincial Nominees are assumed to have left the province in
the same year, to estimate All Targeted PNP Nominees retention rates.

5. Landings of Provincial Nominees
(2001 – 2017)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

6. Retention Rates of New Brunswick
Provincial Nominees
Panel A: Retention Rates of
Provincial Nominees Arriving in
NB
Panel B: Retention Rates of All
Targeted Provincial Nominees
Year 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
2005 75.9% 62.1% 55.2% 64.7% 52.9% 47.1%
2006 80.7% 66.1% 53.2% 71.4% 58.6% 47.1%
2007 78.3% 65.0% 50.0% 69.1% 57.4% 44.1%
2008 76.9% 60.0% 43.1% 65.8% 51.3% 36.8%
2009 80.0% 62.9% 48.6% 65.9% 51.8% 40.0%
2010 76.3% 61.3% 51.3% 61.0% 49.0% 41.0%
2011 73.1% 57.7% 47.4% 63.3% 50.0% 41.1%
2012 73.5% 58.2% 46.9% 62.1% 49.1% 39.7%
2013 73.6% 58.2% 49.5% 67.7% 53.5% 45.5%
2014 74.2% 54.2% 63.6% 46.4%
2015 72.2% 57.7% 58.3% 46.7%
2016 71.5% 56.4%
2017 73.1% 59.7%
Average 75.3% 60.3% 49.5% 63.8% 51.5% 42.5%

7. One-Year Retention Rate of PNP and
Non-PNP Arrivals & All Immigrants
Year All PNP
(including
dependents)
All Non-PNP All Immigrants
(PNP + Non-
PNP)
2005 78.4% 74.3% 75.9%
2006 81.1% 80.8% 81.0%
2007 80.6% 82.7% 82.1%
2008 85.3% 85.5% 85.4%
2009 82.8% 84.2% 83.7%
2010 78.2% 83.2% 80.9%
2011 75.4% 80.5% 77.8%
2012 78.7% 82.7% 80.4%
2013 83.3% 85.9% 84.3%
2014 76.2% 74.2% 75.2%
2015 77.6% 84.4% 80.4%
2016 72.7% 84.6% 80.3%
2017 77.5% 82.8% 79.7%

8. One-Year Retention Rate of Provincial
Nominees by Immigration Stream
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RetentionRate
Landing Year
Business Skilled

9. One-Year Retention Rates of Provincial
Nominees by Country
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China 58.8% 57.9% 63.6% 78.6% 84.2% 88.0% 83.3% 76.2% 62.2% 73.9%
India 100%* 100%* 50.0%* 100%* 66.7%* 50.0%* 66.7%* 50.0%* 60.0% 63.6%
Iran 100%* 66.7%* 66.7%* 33.3% 68.8% 60.0% 100%* 60.0% 66.7%* 33.3%*
Philippines 100%* 100%* 100%* 50.0%* 100% 70.0% 84.6% 88.2% 88.2% 85.3%
Vietnam 0.0%* 66.7%* 50.0% 66.7% 33.3% 33.3%* 62.5% 61.5% 60.0% 60.0%
*Indicates less than 20 arrivals

10. Result Summary
• The number of Provincial Nominees has risen steadily from less than 200
a year in 2005 to over 950 a year in 2017.
• About 75% of Arrived PNP Nominees are still in New Brunswick after one
year later.
• The 3-year and 5-year retention rates are about 60% and 50%, respectively.
• New Brunswick retains about 64% of its All Targeted Provincial Nominees
• The 3-year and 5-year retention rates for are 52% and 43%, respectively
• Statistical analysis confirms that immigrants from the Philippines are most
likely to remain in NB.

11. Next Steps
• Ongoing: Citizen Database linked to NB Provincial Nominee Program
Immigrants (BizNet)
• First evidence of the retention effects of the Atlantic Immigration Pilot coming soon
• Retention rates by official languages spoken and industry
• Data sharing agreement with Immigration, Refugee, and Citizenship
Canada (IRCC) to obtain linkable provincial landing records that contain
country of birth, visa category and other information.
• Expecting data soon – will be able to separate results by federal immigration
categories

12. Internal Mobility in New Brunswick
• Different datasets can give rise to different conclusions about and drivers
of settlement and mobility decisions of immigrants
• Contrast the strengths and weaknesses of alternative data sources –
Census, LAD tax records and provincial healthcare registry data - that
allow for a study of internal mobility
• Present results on 1-year and 5-year retention statistics across three
datasets using a consistently defined sample
• Evaluate the comparability of evidence on immigrant mobility patterns
based on these alternative data sources.

13. Comparison of data sources
Exclusions Sampling Collection Scope FB
identifier
Location Delay in
access
Access
Census Visitors 25% Every 5
years
National Yes,
IRCC
DA 1+ years RDC
LAD Non
taxfilers,
non
residents
20% Annual National Yes,
IRCC
Pcode of
tax
residence
2+ years RDC
Citizen
Database
Visitors and
temp
residents
100% Continuous Provincial Yes,
IRCC*
Pcode of
residential
address
3
months
Provincial
data
centre

14. 1-Year Mobility
% of
2016 total
Stayers Moved
municipality
in NB
Moved to
NB
Moved to
NB from
outside
Canada
Outmigration (%
of 2015 total)
Census 94.3 3.5 2.2 0.4 1.7
LAD 86.5 5.6 2.3 0.4 4.5
Citizen
Database
92.5 5.0 2.5 0.5 1.8
5-Year Mobility
% of
2016 total
Stayers Moved
municipality
in NB
Moved
to NB
Moved to
NB from
outside
Canada
Outmigration (%
of 2011 total)
Census 84.1 9.6 6.2 1.3 6.3
LAD 72.9 15.1 6.3 1.2 11.7
Citizen
Database
73.7 18.0 8.2 1.3 7.5