13th Cairo marketing Club (Egyptian Pharma Market ) by Dr.Haytham Marei
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
*#Marketing_Club*
للاشتراك في نادي التسويق بالشرق الاوسط
*If you are a Marketer now*
To Join our whatsapp &Monthly Meeting in Middle East Cities
Send me ur data on Whatsap
00966569654916
*Fill ur data here as speaker or member*
https://lnkd.in/efkTE7T
Join now
*Marketing Club Facebook Page*
https://lnkd.in/gm4c4hD
*Marketing Club Facebook Group*
https://lnkd.in/gX-5au5
*Egyptian Pharmacists Society Facebook Page*
https://lnkd.in/fucnv_5
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
00966568654916
لخدمات التسويق والدعاية والاعلان
*#Legendary_ADLAND*
Complete Marketing Solutions
*www.LegendaryADLAND.com*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
للحصول على اقامة او شركة في اوروبا
*#Legendary_Europe*
Europe Companies & Residency
*www.LegendaryEurope.info*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
*Contact Bahgat*
M.Bahgat@TheLegendary.Info
11. The top 15 companies in the region contribute ~50% of total MENA sales,
with the majority being MNCs…
Rank
Top Corporations in
MENA
Sales MAT Q3 2018, Bn LC$
1 Sanofi 1.3
2 Novartis 1.1
3 Glaxosmithkline 0.9
4 Pfizer 0.8
5 Novo Nordisk 0.6
6 Hikma 0.6
7 AstraZeneca 0.6
8 MSD 0.5
9 Julphar 0.4
10 Tabuk 0.4
11 Spimaco 0.4
12 Roche 0.4
13 Abbott 0.4
14 Bayer 0.4
15 Johnson & Johnson 0.3
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 30
AstraZeneca
Pfizer
Sanofi
MSD
Novartis
Hikma
Glaxosmithkline
Novo Nordisk
JulpharSpimaco
Roche
Johnson & Johnson
Abbott
Bayer
CAGRMATQ32014–2018%
15 20 25
PPG MAT Q3 2014-2018 %
MNC Local/Regional
CAGR= +8%
PPG = +11%
Overall market: Top 15 Corporations in MENA
Bubble size indicates sales value in MAT Q3 2018
16
Tabuk
14
12. However, the growth of Generics and local companies is clearly outpacing
Originals and MNCs
Key Highlights
• Across MENA countries, Gx are gaining sharesfaster
than Ox at 12% vs 5% CAGR respectively
• Gx accounts for 34% share of themarket
Algeria has the highest share of Gx (49%)
Egypt, UAE and Algeria showed the highestgrowth
of Generics
• MNCs still dominate the MENA market however local and
regional MNF sales are growing faster at ~13% CAGR as
compared to MNC sales (5%)
Egypt, Algeria and UAE have the highest growthof
local/regional companies
Generics penetration in MENA pharma market, Bn LC$,MAT Q3 ’14-’18
**Others include nutritional supplements, diagnostics, and somevaccines.
22% 24% 14% 22% 19% 22% 27% 18% 28%
44% 48%
37%
34%
59%
34%
49%
38%
37%
34% 27%
49%
22% 24%
44% 44% 43% 35%
18.9 7.8 2.5 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3
CAGR ’14-’18 MENA* KSA Algeria Egypt UAE Morocco Lebanon Tunisia Jordan
12% 8% 11% 25% 13% 4% 6% 9% 4%
5% 3% 4% 17% 9% 3% 3% -1% 7%
8% 6% 4% 23% 12% 4% 6% 6% 3%
Gx
Ox
Others
61% 66%
51% 44%
78%
60% 71% 65% 58%
39% 34%
49% 56%
22%
40%
29% 35% 42%
MNC vs Local/regional split in MENA pharma market, Bn LC$. MAT Q3 ’14-’18
18.9 7.8 2.5 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3
CAGR ’14-’18 MENA* KSA Algeria Egypt UAE Morocco Lebanon Tunisia Jordan
Local/
Regional
13% 10% 16% 24% 15% 5% 6% 11% 5%
MNC 5% 3% 1% 19% 9% 2% 4% 1% 5%
21
Growth>=Market Growth=Market Growth<Market
13. Despite the challenges posed by flotation of Egyptian pound the reforms
taken by govt. is providing positive results
Egyptian Pound vs. USD Exchange rates
Key Highlights
• The float of EGP followed a one-off devaluation of
approximately 12% in mid-March 2016, and again in
November 2016, where the exchange ratio against USD
changed from 8.5 EGP to ~18 EGP
• Due to this the rate of inflation rose as high as35%
• The impact of the devaluation was compounded by a
reduction in energy subsidies, together with a looser
monetary policy, which were required for the country totap
a $12 billion loan from the IMF
• The government has taken measures to put the economy
on a sustainable path of growth, following years of decline
in the wake of political chaos
• Inflationary pressures expected to ease and follow the
downward trend established since August 2017. This is
due, in part, to the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) effortsto
curb inflation with a 7% hike in interest rates since
November 2016
• CBE is targeting a decline in inflation to around 13% forQ4
2018 and to single-digit inflation from 2019onwards
10
14. Key Highlights
• The growth rate of the older population groups (40-59 and 60+)
are the highest among the population and will continue to bethe
highest
• This has led to an increase in incidence of chronic diseasesand
ailments associated with elderly, and this trend will continue
• On the other hand, the population group of 20-39, which
represents the major income earning segment has grownonly
1%, and is expected to have an even slower growth by 2022
• This indicates a shrinking labour force which in turn couldput
burden on public health carecosts
Egypt has a young population with ~74% under the age of 40 years however
its fast aging population presents an increase in healthcare needs
Population distribution by age
Key demographics Egypt MENA
Population growth, 2013-2017 2.1% 1.8%
Population aged >65 years in 2017 5.2% 4.9%
Urban population 38.8% 64.5%
42%
32%
42%
33%
2013
97.6
18%
8%
18%
102.9
2020
8% 8%
2015
32%
18%
2017
42% 42%
31%
19%
9%
8%
2018
31%
19%
8%
41%
106.4
20%
30%
89.8
2022
42%
93.8
99.4
2.1%
1.7%
Age Group % of population Growth 2013-17 Growth 2018-22
0-19 42% 2% 1%
20-39 32% 1% 0.7%
40-59 18% 3% 3%
60+ 8% 3% 3%
11
15. 13
While private sector has the maximum number of hospitals, MOH and other
govt. inst. account for ~72% of hospital beds in Egypt
Key Highlights
• In 2014 there were 122,477 hospital beds in the country as a whole; this number includes 24,647 beds in the private sector, 41,129 in MOHP run facilities, and
24,828 beds in other facilities administered by theMOHP
• The overall average number of beds per one hospital was 105 beds in government sector, 93 beds per one hospital in public or parastatal sector and only 17
beds in private sector
• Alongside private and public bodies, charity hospitals have emerged as a key component of the countries healthcare system, especially in specialist areas
such as oncology
• The uneven distribution of medical personnel – between urban and rural areas, between primary, secondary or tertiary care, and among the different
specialties – exacerbates sharp disparities in the quantity and quality of Egypt’s healthcareprovision
391
268
MOHP Other Governmental Private Sector
Sector
No. of Hospitals in different Sectors (2014)
1,403
45%
27%
27%
No. of beds in different Sectors (2014)
MOHP
Other gov. sector
Private
Health worker distribution in all sectors (2015)
29%
54%
12%
5%
Physicians
Nurses
Pharmacists
Dentists
17. HEALTHCARE IN EGYPT – AN OVERVIEW
Egypt’s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets are among the most attractive in the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) region. After a succession of economic and regulatory reform, there has been an uptick in interest
and investment from multinational drug makers and healthcare providers.
Most populous Arab nation
with a population expected
to reach over 151 million
by 2050 (97.99 million in
2018)
3rd in Africa and 14th in
the world; 1.2% of the
world’s population
Poverty: 27.8%
(25.5 million);
Illiteracy rate: 15.8%
(14.5 million)
Urban population
remains below 50%
(43.2% in 2016),
growing at a rate of
2.2% per year
Egypt’s population
will shift from Baby
Boomers to
Generation X, Y & Z
The World Bank expects
government spending on
healthcare to reach at least 3% of
GDP compared to the global
average of 6%.
Egypt Country Review
18. Egypt Country Review
HEALTHCARE IN EGYPT - AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
The implementation of reforms along with the gradual restoration of confidence and stability
are starting to yield positive results.
In FY 2018, real GDP grew at 5.3%, compared to 4.2% in FY 2017, This pickup in GDP was mainly
driven by public and private investments as well as private consumption.
20. Egypt's generic drug market will experience robust growth in
the long term, driven by the government's focus on cost
containment, the impending patent cliff and greater
awareness of generic medicines as a substitute for
expensive patented medicines.
Egypt Country Review
HEALTHCARE IN EGYPT - Generic Drug Market
21. Egypt Health Care Expenditure
Total population (2016) 95,000
Gross national income per capita (PPP international $, 2013) 10
Life expectancy at birth m/f (years, 2016) 68/73
Probability of dying under five (per 1 000 live births, 0)
not available
Probability of dying between 15 and 60 years m/f (per 1 000
population, 2016)
205/121
Total expenditure on health per capita (Intl $, 2014) 594
Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (2014) 5.6
23. • Despite a positive outlook, the country’s restrictive drug pricing regime and the pound's flotation will pose
challenges over the coming years.
• Egypt's healthcare market will remain among the largest in the MENA region. The growth in the Egyptian market will
be driven by the country's growing demand for prescription medicines , a rapid increase in the country's population
and g rowing health awareness .
• Increase awareness about non-communicable disease will boost business in this area especially in Diabetes market
inside Egypt.
• High inflation rates push more local companies for more growth and at same time the economic stability will help
investor to inject more money in coming years
• Many companies change business model for more prescription drugs rather than acute drugs
perspective and prospective on Egyptian
pharmaceutical market
Egypt Country Review
31. Egypt pharma market is expected to grow at double digits as a result of rise
in health awareness causing a shift to innovative medicines & price growth
Pharma Market Dynamics
Growth drivers
Price growth will be a significant driver of market growth in short
term
Volume growth will be the main driver of growth from 2020
onwards
The introduction of the new universal health insurancescheme
would include more populatedareas
Rising rates of obesity, sedentary lifestyles, increasing rates of
smoking have upped the incidence of non communicable
diseases and chronic diseases
Rise in health awareness would increase demand for new and
more innovative medicines, causing a shift towards use of more
expensive products and driving price growth
Growth constraints
Slower growth rate of Egypt’s population and falling birth rates
pose to be a major constraint on the pharmaceutical market
growth
High, though declining, inflation will affect the growth in
consumer spending and delay investment decisions
Increased input costs, affecting the rate of expansion inthe
manufacturing sector2019F2014 2015
115.0
20182016 2017 2020F 2022F2021F
30.3
35.8
44.1
53.6
67.5
77.1
88.1
100.7
22.1%
14.3%
Egypt Pharma market Outlook (Value)
EGP Bn, 2014-2022F
32. Systemic Antibacterial is the largest TA while New generation type II Anti
diabetes (+45%) is among fastest growing TAs in the market
0
10
5
15
20
25
30
35
242216 17 19 20 41 4218 4321 29 3025 3123 3532 33 34
Insulins & Analogs
Antihypertensives
Traditional Type II Antidiabetes
Anti-Epileptics
Anti-Ulcerants
26 27 28
PPG (2017-2018)
Systemic Antibacterials
CAGR(2014-2018)
Allergy Oncologics - Targeted
Opthalmologicals & Otologicals
Anti-Inflammatory & Anti-Rheumatic Products
Lipid Regulators
Erectile Dysfunction ProductsVitamin B Group
Cough & Cold Preparations
Asthma & COPD
Size of the bubble represents sales in EGP Mn, MAT Q4 2018
PPG: 26%
CAGR: 22%
Acute
Chronic
Acute & Chronic
Egypt pharma market: Top 15 TAanalysis
Note: Top 15 TAs exclude Non-Therapeutics
22
34. With local players dominating the market, generics occupy highest share
and have been growing fast compared to original products
PPG %
’17-’18
CAGR %
’14-’18
23% 18%
31% 25%
22% 23%
26% 22%
39%
21% 39%
20%
67.5
36%
21%
34%
22%
33%
45%
30.3 35.8
44.1
53.6
23%
Key Highlights
• Generics products are growing significantly above market growth as a result of
current economic status and country pushing towards localization
• Generics products growth is driven by Anti-bacterials, Anti-ulcerants, Allergy
TAs which grew at 21%, 27% and 28% CAGR in value salesrespectively
• On the other hand, Originals from Systemic Antibacterials lost 3% volume
sales YoY over the last 5 years
Growth>=Market Growth=Market Growth<Market
21%
52%
27%
83.8
28% 27%
21%
51%
22%
51%
20%
52%
28%
18%
55%
27%
69.8 72.2 78.2 71.7
Egypt market split by Product type
EGP Bn, 2014-2018
Egypt market split by Product type
SU Bn, 2014-2018
PPG %
’17-’18
CAGR %
’14-’18
10% 2%
22% 6%
13% 5%
Total Market 17% 5%
40% 40% 43% 43%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Original
Generics
Others*
Original
Generics
Others*
Total Market
Market price trends
EGP/SU , 2014-2018
0.8
0.9 0.9
1.3
1.5
0.3 0.4
0.54
0.6 0.7
20182015 Label2016 2017
Originals
Others*
Generics
23
35. In Generic market, Systematic antivirals (excl. Anti HIV) and Anti Epileptics
are the fastest growing therapeutic areas
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
56
Anti-Ulcerants
Lipid Regulators
Allergy
Opthalmologicals & Otologicals Functional GI Disorder Drugs
Anti-Inflammatory & Anti-Rheumatic Products
Oncologics - Cytotoxics
Asthma & COPD
CAGR(2014-2018)
Dermatological Anti-Infectives Anti-Epileptics
Systemic Antibacterials
Antihypertensives
Erectile Dysfunction Products
Systemic Antivirals Excl. Anti-HIV
Cough & Cold Preparations
Size of the bubble represents sales in EGP Mn, MAT Q4 2018
PPG: 31%
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
PPG (2017-2018)
CAGR: 25%
Acute
Chronic
Acute & Chronic
Egypt Generic pharma market: Top 15 TAanalysis
36. Note: Top 15 TAs exclude Non-Therapeutics
Across top therapy areas, penetration of Gx products vary; highest
Gx (>70%) share observed in 4 out of top 15 TAs
45%
71%
46%
60%
75%
64% 66% 70%
98% 97%
80%
51%
61% 55% 60%
73%
33%
43%
39% 31% 27%
40%
39%
44% 40%
22%
11%
5% 6% 1% 9%
2%
27%
3.8
1% 2%
19%
0%
25%
1.4
1%
29%
1%
3.0
3%
8.6 1.3
0% 1%
67.5
3%
24%
Total Market Antibacterials NSAIDs Antihypertensives Anti- Allergy Cough Anti- Oncologics Vitamin Opthalmo Insulins & Traditional Asthma Lipid Reg ED Products
Ulcerants & Cold Epileptics - Targeted B Group Analogs T2D & COPD
2.6 2.2 1.21.93.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.31.9
Total 22% 19% 22% 22% 24% 26% 25% 33% 30% 26% 22% 22% 16% 25% 25% 27%
Others 23% 26% 23% 7% 34% 34% 29% 27% 33% 26% - 23% 6% 9% - 25%
Original 18% 14% 21% 20% 16% 21% 7% 19% 29% - 16% 19% 16% 23% 22% 28%
Generics 25% 21% 22% 25% 27% 28% 22% 42% 48% 31% 185% 23% 16% 27% 27% 26%
CAGR 2014-2018
Therapy area like Antibacterials, Anti-ulcerants,
Allergy, Anti-epileptics Lipid regulators &
Erectile dysfunction have high generic
penetration
*Others include nutritional supplements, diagnostics, and some vaccines
Top 15 TAs in Egypt
EGP Bn, 2018