Anna Di Bartolomeo, Sona Kalantaryan, Alessandra Venturini MPC,EUI, Florence

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The demand of Caregivers
Anna Di Bartolomeo, Sona Kalantaryan,
Alessandra Venturini
MPC,EUI, Florence
Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography
Conference Demography
MPC, EUI, Florence 4-5 February 2016

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• Women migration has increased in Europe 49.5% of total
migrant population
• The increase in supply, in the average level of education
• but not increase in the quality of the women jobs
• 34% in low (ISCO9) and 41% in medium skilled jobs (ISCO4-8)
• 30-40% according to the definition in the care sector.
• growth of native care workers 17% 2006-2012
• growth of foreign care workers 84% 2006-2012
• Foreign share 6% 2006 to 17% 2012

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• Care givers occupation complex
• -’live in’ worker living with the employer
• -’live out’ worker not living with the employer
• - multiple jobs holder
• Complex to measure
• EULFS 3digit ISCO code
• Personal care and related workers (514)
• Other personal services workers (513)
• Domestics and reletated helps (913)

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Share of foreign caregivers

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Gender
• In all the countries are mainly female
0
20
40
60
80
100
120

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0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
90.0
Total caregivers (513, 514, 913)
%TCNs

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• The objective of the research is to model and
forecast the demand of caregivers
• Factors affecting the demand:

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• Increasing share of the elderly
•
• Old age dependency ratio (65+/20-64) appropriate for pension studies
• Super Old age dependency ratio (75+/20-74)
• Impact on the welfare cost and on the long term care needs of the elderly

9. 908/02/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu
Fig.1: Old age dependency ratio 1952-2050
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Population65+/20-65
World
27 MS
Source: Philippe Fargues, 2011, Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online

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Population 75+/ population 20-74
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
28 MS
World

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Morbility
% people perceiving severe long-standing limitations in usual activities due to health
problem
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
65+
75+

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The demand for care services will increase
and the demand of care givers in the public, private and
family sectors according to the type of welfare state model
prevailing in the economy will increase .
Demand of care givers will increase not only because the
elderly persons increase
but also becuase the domestic labour supply declines.

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Average weekly hours allocated by women to care
activities for elderly/disabled relatives
(OCDE survey on the use of time)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20

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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of unemployed and inactive on pop aged 15-64 Females

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Long term expenditure in kind and in cash benefits %
on GNPSHA and ESSPROS database
01234012340123401234
2006 2008 2010 2012
2006 2008 2010 2012 2006 2008 2010 2012 2006 2008 2010 2012
Austria Belgium Germany Denmark
Spain France Greece Ireland
Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal
Sweden UK mean
Ltcexpok
year
Graphs by country

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01234
ltcexpok
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
year
Austria Belgium
Germany Denmark
Spain France
Greece Ireland
Italy Luxembourg
Netherlands Portugal
Sweden UK

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• Test Card-Di Nardo
• No competition between native care W. and
foreign care W.
• Complementarity Research Barone Mocetti
(Italy) 2013, Romiti Rossi (UK) 2012, Romiti
Rossi (Italy) 2012, Ferrer (Spain) 2011

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• Equation
• LCGt,c= a L (fuolf)t,c + b Lo75t,c + c Expt,c + d ExpDt,nc+ et,c
• fuolf= female unemployed or out of the labour force
• Lo75= older than 75 years
• Exp= Long term care expenditure on both in kind and in cash
%GNP
• ExpD= intereacted dummy for Nordic countries

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Restricted estimates of the demand of caregivers
Log Caregivers-Restrictive
(1) (2) (3)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -2.334*** -2.420** -2.003*
(0.756) (1.031) (1.050)
Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***
(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**
(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.164** -0.837 -1.569**
(0.480) (0.655) (0.666)
Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545
(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.439 0.330 0.336
Number of id 14 14 14

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Restricted estimates of the demand of caregivers
Log Caregivers-Restrictive
(1) (2) (3)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -2.334*** -2.420** -2.003*
(0.756) (1.031) (1.050)
Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***
(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**
(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.164** -0.837 -1.569**
(0.480) (0.655) (0.666)
Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545
(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.439 0.330 0.336
Number of id 14 14 14

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Restricted estimates of the demand of caregivers
Log Caregivers-Restrictive
(1) (2) (3)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -2.334*** -2.420** -2.003*
(0.756) (1.031) (1.050)
Log Over75 3.248*** 3.412*** 4.264***
(0.636) (0.867) (0.882)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.383*** 1.201** 1.548**
(0.433) (0.591) (0.601)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.164** -0.837 -1.569**
(0.480) (0.655) (0.666)
Constant -2.791 -4.578 -22.545
(14.184) (19.336) (19.685)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.439 0.330 0.336
Number of id 14 14 14

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Extended estimates of the demand of caregivers
(4) (5) (6)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -1.660*** -1.900*** -1.505**
(0.470) (0.558) (0.722)
Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***
(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***
(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.335*** -1.262*** -2.097***
(0.298) (0.354) (0.458)
Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810
(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.528 0.440 0.457
Number of id 14 14 14
Log Caregivers-extended

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Extended estimates of the demand of caregivers
(4) (5) (6)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -1.660*** -1.900*** -1.505**
(0.470) (0.558) (0.722)
Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***
(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***
(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.335*** -1.262*** -2.097***
(0.298) (0.354) (0.458)
Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810
(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.528 0.440 0.457
Number of id 14 14 14
Log Caregivers-extended

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Extended estimates of the demand of caregivers
(4) (5) (6)
VARIABLES FOREIGN TCN EU
Log Unemployed and Inactive -1.660*** -1.900*** -1.505**
(0.470) (0.558) (0.722)
Log Over75 2.452*** 2.375*** 3.340***
(0.395) (0.469) (0.607)
Expenditure (% GDP) 1.362*** 1.294*** 2.049***
(0.269) (0.319) (0.414)
Interaction (Expend * Nordic) -1.335*** -1.262*** -2.097***
(0.298) (0.354) (0.458)
Constant 0.173 4.111 -15.810
(8.813) (10.456) (13.540)
Country Fixes Effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 84 84 84
R-squared 0.528 0.440 0.457
Number of id 14 14 14
Log Caregivers-extended

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• Different specification with mobility
• 65 weighted by morbility
• 75 weighted by morbility
• Nothing change

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Forecasts
34,711 37,329 45,479 56,485 66,465
897
1,116
1,800
2,724
3,561
2,749
3,258
4,840
6,978
8,916
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
Restricted FOR
Extended FOR

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Forecasts are sensitive to the female participation
• if it increases demand increases
• Forecasts are sensitive to morbility
• If morbility improuves less caregivers

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Forecasts (000)
34,711 37,329 45,479 56,485 66,465
897 1.116
1.800
2,724
3,561
2,749
3,258
4,840
6,978
8,916
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
Restricted FOR
Extended FOR

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• Forecasted stock but not the flows
• Circular migration larger inflows
• Reunified family members thus lower
lavour inflows