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Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Rainer Münz's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

  1. 1. Page 1 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Rainer Münz Paris, February 25, 2015 Global Migration
  2. 2. Page 2 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Yesterday’s and today’s migration
  3. 3. 1990 2000 2010 2013 The number of international migrants increases United Nations, Population Division/DESA Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
  4. 4. Where do they come from? Where do they go to? International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, millions Source: United Nations, Population Division
  5. 5. Magnet societies: EU, Asia, US 2013 1990 International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
  6. 6. Page 6 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Top 10 emigration countries Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010 Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011 11.4 11.1 8.3 6.6 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.3 11.9 0 4 8 12 Mexico India Russian Federation China Ukraine Bangladesh Pakistan United Kingdom Philippines Turkey
  7. 7. Page 7 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Top 10 immigration countries Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010 42.8 12.3 10.8 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 5.5 5.4 0 15 30 45 United States Russian Federation Germany Saudi Arabia Canada United Kingdom Spain France Australia India Source: World Bank, UNPD 2011
  8. 8. Today most migrants come from middle- and low-income countriesNet migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per 1000)
  9. 9. Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration recedes Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10) Data Source: UN; Erste Research
  10. 10. Page 10 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Millions of migrants are neither documented and nor counted in our statitstical data bases
  11. 11. Page 11 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG The example of Europe
  12. 12. Page 12 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Source: Eurostat, UN DESA Net migration in Europe 2001- 2009 Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants . -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% below -5% -5% to -2% above +5%
  13. 13. Page 13 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013 Net migration in Europe 2010- 2012 Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants . -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% below -5% -5% to -2% above +5% Direction changed recently
  14. 14. Page 14 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG There are millions of people in need of protection living in Europe’s neighborhood. Many more than the EU member states will ever be able and willing to accommodate
  15. 15. Page 15 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Can we project today’s migration pattern into the future?
  16. 16. 1990 2000 2010 2013 The number of international migrants is projected to increase further 203 0 Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population United Nations, Population Division/DESA
  17. 17. 1990 2000 2010 2013 United Nations, Population Division/DESA 205 0 The number of international migrants is projected to increase further Absolute numbers and share of migrants in total population
  18. 18. Net migratory flows to more developed countries 1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn All more developed countries USA xx xx Source: Joel E. Cohen UNPD estimate WPP2010 projection Gravity model Linear model
  19. 19. Even for Europe we do not have good data European countries with largest net out and in-migration 2005-2009, by source Rank Country EUROSTAT USCB UNPD WiC 1 Romania -904,615 -32,058 -46,342 -100,000 2 Lithuania -145,981 -12,801 -166,978 -36,000 3 Belarus -145,678 32,671 52,266 -51,000 4 Poland -85,558 -88,979 -60,268 55,000 5 Latvia -84,549 -25,675 -89,138 -10,000 6 Bulgaria -53,329 -135,993 -80,423 -50,000 7 Armenia -31,776 -92,399 -139,099 -75,000 8 Albania -28,818 -145,067 -170,893 -48,000 9 Estonia -17,556 -21,187 -13,612 0 10 Republic of Moldova -14,854 -196,149 -183,069 -172,000 10 Czech Republic 232,025 255,036 297,005 240,000 9 Sweden 249,653 250,997 263,075 265,000 8 Belgium 288,023 63,487 342,395 200,000 7 Switzerland 301,164 224,792 338,020 182,000 6 Turkey 361,867 224,053 -79,266 -49,000 5 France 490,483 415,630 593,334 500,000 4 Russian Federation 1,055,101 1,479,888 2,471,475 1,135,000 3 Italy 1,364,695 1,747,460 1,993,177 1,999,000 2 United Kingdom 1,369,091 961,339 928,982 1,021,000 1 Spain 2,645,920 2,496,953 2,416,659 2,250,000 Source: T. Buettner
  20. 20. Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Poland Source: T. Buettner
  21. 21. Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Niger Source: T. Buettner
  22. 22. Migration flows: Uncertain past, uncertain future – Philippines Source: T. Buettner
  23. 23. Why does it matter? Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010 Per cent Polynesia -45 Micronesia -21 Caribbean -14 Central America -10 Central Asia -8 Northern Africa -6 Western Africa -4 Melanesia -4 South-Central Asia -3 Southern Asia -3 Eastern Africa -2 Middle Africa -2 South-Eastern Asia -2 South America -2 Eastern Asia -1 Southern Africa 1 Eastern Europe 2 Western Asia 3 Southern Europe 8 Western Europe 10 Northern Europe 16 Northern America 20 Australia/New Zealand 36 Source: Francois Pelletier
  24. 24. Page 24 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG Thank you for your attention! rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com

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