What lessons could Europe learn from Iran?

1. Refugee crises one generation later:
What lessons could Europe learn from Iran?
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi,
University of Tehran, National Institute of Population
Research (NIPR), and Australian National University
Rasoul Sadeghi, University of Tehran and NIPR
Migration, Citizenship and Demography:
Conference on Demography
4–5 February 2016
European University Institute, Florence, Italy
University of Tehran

2. Overview
Introduction: Recent irregular
movements
Iran’s experiences on refugee
management
Migration background of Afghans in
Iran
Adaptation patterns
Return strategies and intentions
Lessons learned and policy options

3. Ref: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2015

4. Changes of IDP figures
over the last decade
Ref: UNHCR 2014

5. Major refugee-hosting countries, mid-2014
UNHCR (2015). UNHCR Mid-Year Trends 2014. stats@unhcr.org

6. Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean:
In April, 2015, a ship carrying hundreds of refugees
trying to reach Europe
Source: http://natocouncil.ca/forced-migration-in-the-mediterranean-and-international-law/

7. Migrants after a rescue operation by the Italian navy off
the coast of Sicily. Photograph: Handout/REUTERS, The
Guardian, Wednesday 9 April 2014.

8. Irregular Migration Routs to Europe
2015
8
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/06/19/mediterranean-migration-crisis/why-people-flee-what-eu-should-do

9. 9

10. Lessons learned from the
past?
Trend of refugee migration to
Iran?
Migration background and
adaptation patterns of Afghan
refugees in Iran?
What lessons can Europe learn
from Iran?

11. Afghans in Iran:
Historical Background
o Before 1979: Labor force migration
o 1979-1989: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan;
first massive refugee influx
o 1990-1993: First repatriation program
o 1994-2001: Civil war and advent of the
Taliban; second massive refugee influx
o After 2001: Second repatriation program
o 2004 onward: New phase of labor force
migration

12. The number (million) of Afghan Immigrants in Iran
0.6
0.8
2.0
3.0
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
~1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Source: Various censuses

13. Number and share of other
nationalities in Iran, 2006 and 2011
Nationality 2006 2011
Afghanistan 92.8 93.8
Iraq 3.4 3.3
Pakistan 1.2 1.1
Other 2.6 1.8
Total 100.0 100.0
Number 1,304,016 1,547,679
Ref: Sadeghi and Abbasi-Shavazi, 2015

14. Estimated number of Afghans in Iran
Type Number
Refugees ~ 950,000
Labour migrants ~ 500,000
Undocumented
(Irregular/illegal
migrants, over stayers)
~ 1000,000
Total ~ 2,500,000

15. 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Numbers
2nd generation(Green color) & 1st generation Afghans in Iran, 2006
Males Females
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

16. Comparison of Age structure of Native Population
(shaded) vs Foreign Nationalities in Iran, 2011
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Percentages
Iran 1390 (shaded) & Migrants 1390
Males Females

17. Population Composition of Afghans in
Iran, 2006 Census
Urban
71%
Rural
27 %
Refugee
Camps
2.1 %
Residence area
Hazara
47%
Tajik
30%
Pashtun
13%
Others
10%
Ethnicity
Foreign
born
(Afgha
nistan)
51.2%
Native
-born
(Iran)
48.8%
Birth place

18. Geographical distribution of Afghans in Iran, 2011 Census

19. To what extent Afghans
have been adapted to the
Iranian society?

20. Adaptation:
Measurement & Analytical Approaches
Structural
approach
(Native-immigrant
comparisons)
Intergenerational
approach
(Intergenerational
comparisons)
Attitude-behavioral
approach
(Intra-generational comparisons)
Social
Demographic

21. Iran: Literacy Status of First and Second Generation Afghan
Migrants Compared with Iranians, 2006
Source: Based on the Iranian 2006 census
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

22. Iran: Labour Force Participation of First and Second Generations of
Afghans Compared With Iranians, 2006 Iran Census
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

23. Total Fertility Rate Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

24. Fertility (TFRs): Afghan Women in Afghanistan and Iran as Compared
with Iranian Women, 1992-2006
7.0
6.9 6.9 6.8
6.7
Afghanistan
3.6
2.7
2.2
2.0
1.8
Iranians
6.7
5.3
5.0
4.1
3.6
Afghans in Iran
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

25. Average children ever born (CEB) of Iranians and
Afghan women, 15-49 yrs old, 2006
4.08 4.13
4.01
3.27 3.15
3.46
2.61
2.42
2.85
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Total Urban Rural
CEB
1st generation 2nd generation Iranian women
* Adjusted for Age Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

26. Mean of CEB among Iranian and Afghan women
by Education Levels, 2006
3.65
2.72
2.38
2.02
1.55
3.73
3.01
2.63
2.11
1.57
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Illiterate Elementary Secondary High school &
Diploma
Higher
education
CEB
Iranian women
Afghan women
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

27. Educational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and 2nd generations
by gender, 2011
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

28. Occupational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and
2nd generations by gender, 2011
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

29. Structural adaptation of Afghan youth in Iran
Afghan migrants in Iran had a
better socio-economic situation as
compared with their counterparts in
Afghanistan
Unbalanced integration (education,
health vs. occupation and housing)
Intergenerational adaptation: the
2nd generation had a better situation
and were more integrated into the
Iran society

30. Attitude-behavioral Adaptation:
Using Berry’s two-dimensional framework
Acceptance and attachment to the host societyMaintainandattachmentto
originsociety&migrant
community
High Low
High Integration Separation
Low Assimilation Marginalization
Source: Berry 1992, 2006.

31. DATA
The 2010 Afghans Adaptation Survey
Conducted in Tehran and Mashhad
Target population: Afghan Youth aged 15-29.
Sample size: 620
The sampling scheme: based on the socio-
demographic composition and the geography of
settlement of Afghan immigrants.
Structured questionnaire for data collection

32. Identity
Identity and sense of belonging
Iranian
20.7 %
Afghan
41.5 %
Dual
26.5 %
Marginal
11.3 %
Identity
If you can choose your nationality/
citizenship which one would you choose?
Nationality
&
Citizenship
Iranian
35.0 %
Afghan
32.7 %
Neither
12.9 %
Both
19.4 %

33. The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation
among Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010
14.8
%
33.7
%
39.4
%
12.1
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

34. The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation among
1st & 2nd generation Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010
(2nd N= 520 & 1st N=100)
17.1 %
35.8 %
33.3 %
13.8 %
3.0 %
23.0 %
71.0 %
3.0 %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
2nd generation 1st generation

35. 13.6
53.3
25.5
7.6
15.9
34.6
36.9
12.5
14.2
31.2
37.6
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
A S I M
Illiterate/ primary Secondary/ high school University education
Adaptation Patterns of Afghan Youth by Educational levels

36. Adaptation Patterns
and
Return Aspirations/ Intentions

37. Return Intentions of Afghan Youth, 2010
Intentions (%) Staying
in Iran
Return to
Afghanistan
Planning to
go other
countries
Undecided
/ dilemma
Current intention about staying
in Iran or returning to
Afghanistan
60.8 6.6 8.4 24.1
Plan on staying in Iran or
returning to Afghanistan in
near future (next 2 years) 31.6 10.6 14.4* 43.4
Intention to migrate from Iran
to other countries (except
Afghanistan)
Yes No Uncertain
20.2 77.1 2.7
*Including; Australia (n=21), Canada (n=13), USA (n=8), Germany (n=6), England (n=5),
Sweden (n=5), Other European countries (n=22), Not certain (n=9).

38. Adaptation and interest in staying in Iran
2.2
7.2
16.0 18.716.3
12.0
27.9
29.3
22.8
46.4
37.7
40.058.7
34.4
18.4
12.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 91.573 Sig= 0.001

39. Adaptation and interest in returning to
Afghanistan
53.3
12.0 7.4
28.0
27.2
25.4
13.9
28.0
12.0
37.3
26.2
30.7
7.5
25.3
52.5
13.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 172.316 Sig= 0.001

40. Adaptation and interest in migration to
other countries
34.8
22.0
27.1
5.3
8.7
8.1
14.3
2.7
16.3
15.3
16.0
10.7
40.2
54.6
42.6
81.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 46.948 Sig= 0.001

41. Adaptation and preferred country to
grow up children…
62.0
21.5 21.3 17.3
3.3
9.6
33.6
5.3
27.1
19.6
16.0
62.7
7.6
49.3
29.1
14.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Iran Afghanistan Other countries I don't know
Chi-square= 209.636 Sig= 0.001

42. Conclusion: adaptation and mobility
Second-generation Afghans in Iran have
experienced a variety of adaptation
patterns and orientations.
Fertility and family behavior of Afghans
have changed towards the host society.
Attitudes and behavior of the second
generation Afghans is more closer to their
Iranian counterpart than the first
generation.
The SG Afghans experienced educational -
but not occupational - upward mobility.

43. Summary: Adaptation and return
A clear majority of second-generation Afghan in
Iran did not intend to return to Afghanistan in the
short and medium term.
Assimilated SG Afghans are interested in staying in
Iran
Those in the separated category were more likely
to be willing or intending to return to Afghanistan
as compared with those in other categories.
Integrated immigrants have simultaneous
attachments to the host society and the homeland.
This ambiguity and uncertainty is reflected in the
undecided responses toward return aspirations and
intentions.
Marginalized SG Afghans were more willing to
migrate to other countries.

44. Repatriation has slowed down
More than 5 million Afghans have been repatriated from
Pakistan and Iran but the repatriation process has been
slow since 2010.
Boarder control policies may NOT be so effective as long
as there is a gap in socio-economic situation between
the home and host societies.
Reintegration of returnees in Afghanistan has
implications for future irregular migration
Those who are repatriated but not reintegrated will
communicate and send a message back to their families
and friends to stay at host country.
Women are less intended to return to Afghanistan.
SOLUTION? Rebuilding Afghanistan may motivate
potential migrants to stay in-, and encourage migrants
to return to their homeland.

45. Policies on potential refugees and
irregular migrants
Negotiations for peace process in the Middle East has to be
coordinated successfully in order to stop the trend of
forced/irregular migration to Europe and neighbouring
countries
Restructuring the countries experiencing conflict (Syria,
Afghanistan, Yemen…) would prevent further irregular
migration
Repatriation: Although repatriation of migrants would take
time and is a slow process, policies should encourage the
educated second-generation Afghans who can build
Afghanistan to return to their homeland. This cannot be
done without the coordination of the Afghanistan
government.
Afghans are an adaptable group of migrants, and thus,
integration is the best strategy for those who remain in EU.

46. Selected References
Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. Hugo, G., Sadeghi, R. and Mahmoudian, H.,
2015, Immigrant-native fertility differentials: The Afghans in Iran,
Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, Vol. 24(3) 273–297. DOI:
10.1177/0117196815594718
Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. and Sadeghi, R. 2014, Socio-cultural
Adaptation of Second-generation Afghans in Iran, International
Migration Online version is available at doi: 10.1111/imig.12148
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Sadeghi, R., Mahmoudian, H., and
Jamshidiha, G., 2012 Marriage and Family Formation of the
Second-generation Afghans in Iran: Insight from a qualitative
survey, International Migration Review, 46 (4):828–860. DOI:
10.1111/imre.12002
Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Glazebrook, D., Jamshidiha, G.,
Mahmoudian, H., & R. Sadeghi, 2008, Second Generation
Afghans in Iran: Integration, Identity and Return, Afghanistan
and Research Evaluation Research (AREU), Kabul.
Hugo, G., Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., and Sadeghi, R. 2012,
Refugee Movement and Development: Afghan Refugees in
Iran, Migration and Development, 1 (2): 261–279.

47. Thank you
Jalal.Abbasi@anu.edu.au