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Relative Valuation
RT
Relative valuation model
• Relative valuation model
– Asset valued based on market pricing of similar
assets
• Most widely adopted valuation model in
practice
– Easy to use, but also easy to misuse!
– Most investment thumb rules based on multiples
– Less time and resource intensive
– Reflects current market sentiments
Contd...
• Relative valuation technique
– Find comparable assets that are priced by market
• Comparable in terms of risk, growth and cash flow potential
• Common proxies ~ firm size, life cycle, sector / industry
– Scale market prices to a common variable to generate
standardized prices that are comparable
• Equity values for equity multiples
• Firm values for value multiples
– Adjust for differences across assets
• Accounting differences; differences in fundamentals
Standardized Values and Multiples
• Earnings multiples
– Price-earnings (current P/E, trailing P/E, forward
P/E)
• Book value or replacement value multiples
– Price-to-book ratio, Tobin’s Q
• Revenue multiples
– Price-to-Sales ratio
• Sector specific multiples
– Price-to-hits ratio, Price-to-subscriptions ratio
Issues in Multiples Based Valuation
• Consistency in using multiples for valuation
– If numerator is equity value, denominator should
also be equity value
• Numerator ~ Share price or market value of equity
• Denominator ~ EPS, net income, book value of equity
– If numerator is firm value, denominator should
also be firm value
• Numerator ~ Enterprise value or firm value
• Denominator ~ EBIT, EBITDA, book value of capital
Contd...
• Differences in accounting standards
– May affect earnings and book value numbers
differently even for similar firms
• Differences in depreciation, expense or revenue recognition
• Effect of outliers
– Positively skewed distributions ~ mean > median
• Biases in multiples estimation
– Negative P/E ratios not meaningful, hence ignored
– Upward bias in average P/E ratio due to elimination
Scaling Variables for Equity Multiples
• Equity earnings variables
– Net Income, Earnings Per Share
• Equity cash flow measures
– Dividends, Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Equity book value measures
– Book value of equity
• Revenue measures
– Sales
Common Equity Multiples
• Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
– P/E = Market value of equity / Net income
– P/E = Share price / Earnings per share
– Current P/E, trailing P/E, forward P/E
– Skewed distribution of P/E ratios
• Negative P/E ratios not meaningful, hence ignored
• PEG Ratio
– PEG Ratio = P/E ratio / Expected earnings growth rate
– Helps portfolio manager to identify undervalued
stocks
Contd...
• Price-to-Book Ratio
– P/B ratio = Market value of equity / BV of equity
– Affected by accounting conventions
• Price-to-Sales Ratio
– Price-to-Sales ratio = Market value of equity /
revenues
– Widely used, although inconsistent
– Revenues almost always positive, easily available
• Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio
• Price/FCFE = Market value of equity / FCFE
Example 1
• XYZ company’s current net income is $25m.
Comparable firms in the same industry are
trading at an average current P/E ratio of 15x.
The company currently has 2,50,000 shares
outstanding. Calculate value of equity.
Answer
• Value of equity
P/E = Price / EPS
P/E = Equity value / Net Income
=> 15 = Equity value / 25000000
=> Equity value = 15 x 25000000 = 375000000
=> Equity value per share = 375000000 /250000
= $1500/share
Example 2
• XYZ company’s current net income is $25m.
Comparable firms in the same industry are
trading at an average trailing P/E ratio of 12x.
The company currently has 2,50,000 shares
outstanding. Calculate value of equity.
Answer
• Value of equity
P/E = Price / EPS
P/E = Equity value / Net Income
=> 12 = Equity value / 25000000
=> Equity value = 12 x 25000000 = 300000000
=> Equity value per share = 300000000/250000
= $1200/share
Example 3
• XYZ company’s management has forecasted
the net income of the firm as $10m in the next
financial year. Comparable firms in the same
industry are trading at an average P/E ratio of
25x. The company currently has 2,50,000
shares outstanding. Calculate valuation of
equity.
Answer
• Value of equity
P/E = Price / EPS
P/E = Equity value / Net Income
=> 25 = Equity value / 10
=> Equity value = 25 x 10000000 = 250000000
=> Equity value per share = 250000000/250000
= $1000/share
Common Value Multiples
• EV/EBITDA
– EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value / EBITDA
• EV/EBIT
– EV/EBIT = Enterprise Value / EBIT
• EV/Book Value of Capital
– Enterprise Value / Book Value of Capital
• EV/Sales
– Enterprise Value / Sales
• EV = (Market Value of Equity + Market Value
of Debt) – Non-Operating Cash + Market value
of minority interests
• Approximation:-
• EV = (Market Value of Equity + Market Value
of Debt) – Non-Operating Cash
• Thank you

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Relative valuation - Class.pptx

  • 2. Relative valuation model • Relative valuation model – Asset valued based on market pricing of similar assets • Most widely adopted valuation model in practice – Easy to use, but also easy to misuse! – Most investment thumb rules based on multiples – Less time and resource intensive – Reflects current market sentiments
  • 3. Contd... • Relative valuation technique – Find comparable assets that are priced by market • Comparable in terms of risk, growth and cash flow potential • Common proxies ~ firm size, life cycle, sector / industry – Scale market prices to a common variable to generate standardized prices that are comparable • Equity values for equity multiples • Firm values for value multiples – Adjust for differences across assets • Accounting differences; differences in fundamentals
  • 4. Standardized Values and Multiples • Earnings multiples – Price-earnings (current P/E, trailing P/E, forward P/E) • Book value or replacement value multiples – Price-to-book ratio, Tobin’s Q • Revenue multiples – Price-to-Sales ratio • Sector specific multiples – Price-to-hits ratio, Price-to-subscriptions ratio
  • 5. Issues in Multiples Based Valuation • Consistency in using multiples for valuation – If numerator is equity value, denominator should also be equity value • Numerator ~ Share price or market value of equity • Denominator ~ EPS, net income, book value of equity – If numerator is firm value, denominator should also be firm value • Numerator ~ Enterprise value or firm value • Denominator ~ EBIT, EBITDA, book value of capital
  • 6. Contd... • Differences in accounting standards – May affect earnings and book value numbers differently even for similar firms • Differences in depreciation, expense or revenue recognition • Effect of outliers – Positively skewed distributions ~ mean > median • Biases in multiples estimation – Negative P/E ratios not meaningful, hence ignored – Upward bias in average P/E ratio due to elimination
  • 7. Scaling Variables for Equity Multiples • Equity earnings variables – Net Income, Earnings Per Share • Equity cash flow measures – Dividends, Free Cash Flow to Equity • Equity book value measures – Book value of equity • Revenue measures – Sales
  • 8. Common Equity Multiples • Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E) – P/E = Market value of equity / Net income – P/E = Share price / Earnings per share – Current P/E, trailing P/E, forward P/E – Skewed distribution of P/E ratios • Negative P/E ratios not meaningful, hence ignored • PEG Ratio – PEG Ratio = P/E ratio / Expected earnings growth rate – Helps portfolio manager to identify undervalued stocks
  • 9. Contd... • Price-to-Book Ratio – P/B ratio = Market value of equity / BV of equity – Affected by accounting conventions • Price-to-Sales Ratio – Price-to-Sales ratio = Market value of equity / revenues – Widely used, although inconsistent – Revenues almost always positive, easily available • Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio • Price/FCFE = Market value of equity / FCFE
  • 10. Example 1 • XYZ company’s current net income is $25m. Comparable firms in the same industry are trading at an average current P/E ratio of 15x. The company currently has 2,50,000 shares outstanding. Calculate value of equity.
  • 11. Answer • Value of equity P/E = Price / EPS P/E = Equity value / Net Income => 15 = Equity value / 25000000 => Equity value = 15 x 25000000 = 375000000 => Equity value per share = 375000000 /250000 = $1500/share
  • 12. Example 2 • XYZ company’s current net income is $25m. Comparable firms in the same industry are trading at an average trailing P/E ratio of 12x. The company currently has 2,50,000 shares outstanding. Calculate value of equity.
  • 13. Answer • Value of equity P/E = Price / EPS P/E = Equity value / Net Income => 12 = Equity value / 25000000 => Equity value = 12 x 25000000 = 300000000 => Equity value per share = 300000000/250000 = $1200/share
  • 14. Example 3 • XYZ company’s management has forecasted the net income of the firm as $10m in the next financial year. Comparable firms in the same industry are trading at an average P/E ratio of 25x. The company currently has 2,50,000 shares outstanding. Calculate valuation of equity.
  • 15. Answer • Value of equity P/E = Price / EPS P/E = Equity value / Net Income => 25 = Equity value / 10 => Equity value = 25 x 10000000 = 250000000 => Equity value per share = 250000000/250000 = $1000/share
  • 16. Common Value Multiples • EV/EBITDA – EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value / EBITDA • EV/EBIT – EV/EBIT = Enterprise Value / EBIT • EV/Book Value of Capital – Enterprise Value / Book Value of Capital • EV/Sales – Enterprise Value / Sales
  • 17. • EV = (Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt) – Non-Operating Cash + Market value of minority interests • Approximation:- • EV = (Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt) – Non-Operating Cash