What’s UP with the Massachusetts Economy? by Barry Bluestone

1. What’s UP with the Massachusetts Economy? MAPC Fall Council Meeting Crowne Plaza Hotel Natick, Massachusetts October 26, 2010 Barry Bluestone

2. The Economic Picture The U.S. Context

3. A Fragile U.S.Economic Recovery… Monthly payroll employment change, excl. Census Jobs Consistent monthly job growth of over 150K will be necessary to reduce unemployment

4. … As Federal Fiscal Stimulus Fades Source: Moody’s Analytics Stimulus Contribution to real GDP growth, % Tax rebate checks Recovery Act Cash for Clunkers Housing tax credit

5. Profits Surge and Jobs Should Follow… Sources: BLS, BEA Profit growth, lagged 3 quarters (R) Job growth, % change year-over year (L)

6. Worries over Federal Debt Sources: Treasury, Moody’s Analytics The average federal debt-to-GDP ratio since WWII is 40% Federal debt-to-GDP ratio

7. The Economic Picture Massachusetts Rebound

9. Massachusetts

10. The Massachusetts economy is growing faster than that of the U.S.

15. However, metro areas outside of Boston are still in recession,

16. The Greater Boston Housing Market

23. The Foreclosure Crisis

30. The Demographic Picture

32. New Hampshire +20.4% Vermont +17.0% Maine +13.2% Rhode Island +11.3% Massachusetts + 9.1% Connecticut + 8.0% U.S. +14.8%

33. U.S.: 99% Mass: 135%

35. Net Increase in Households: 222,700 Under 55: -77,700 55+: +300,371