The US "Clean Power Plan" is insufficient for a 2°C pathway. We need: - Holistic and stringent Federal policies to attain targets; - Threefold approach where renewable electricity plays a key role; - Policies need to promote new energy investments; - Immediate action to minimize the costs; At the UN Climate Summit in Paris, policy-makers, businesses and financiers together can make the change happen.

1. MEETING THE TARGETS TO KEEP WARMING
BELOW 2°C, A NEW US PATHWAY
Luca Soppelsa
http://nl.linkedin.com/in/lucasoppelsa
29.11.2015

2. Content
 Introduction
 US Climate pledges
 US current GHG emissions
 Opportunities to curb GHGs
 US strategy towards the 2°C pathway
 New stringent & comprehensive policies
 Investments to meet the 2030 targets
 Renewable electricity generation
 Conclusions and way forward
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Luca Soppelsa

3. Introduction
A major increase in the level of climate actions is needed to limit
global warming below 2°C.
Concrete steps must be taken by both:
 Annex I countries and
 Non-Annex I countries.
Without further mitigation global temperature might rise by 3.7
to 4.8°C over the 21st century (5th IPCC AR)
By acting now the costs to stay below 2°C are modest
(0.04-0.14% reduction of consumption)
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Luca Soppelsa

4. US climate policies & pledge pathway
June 2, 2014: New “Clean Power Plan”  30% reduction GHGs
from electricity sector by 2030 (compared to 2005)
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Meeting the targets to keep warming below
2°C, a new US pathway
Luca Soppelsa
Source: Climate Action Tracker
17% reduction of
GHG compared
to 2005 39% reduction of
GHG compared
to 2005

5. US GHG emissions by economic sector in 2012
 US is 2nd largest GHG emitter
 Electricity generation produces
biggest share of GHGs (32%)
 Fossil fuels still playing a major
economic role in all sectors:
 > 70% electricity generation;
 > 90% transportation fuel is petroleum based;
 > 50% Industry emissions;
 Heating and cooking for commercial and residential use
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Source: US EPA

6. Opportunities to curb GHGs
Economic Sector Opportunity Implementation
Electricity generation Increase efficiency of power plants, fuel
switching and increase efficiency at the end-
use (decrease demand)
Convert coal-powered turbine into
gas-powered turbine
Electricity generation Renewable energy Increase share of electricity
generated from wind, solar, hydro
Transportation Fuel switching and increase fuel efficiency Use of bio-fuels and electric
vehicles
Transportation Decrease travel demand Building public transportation to
decrease the miles people have to
drive
Industry Energy efficiency, fuel switching and recycling
of industrial products
More efficient industrial
technologies & replace of coal
Commercial/Residential Decrease energy use through energy efficiency Green buildings with better
insulation & efficient lighting
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7. US strategy towards the 2°C pathway
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A full decarbonisation path requires a radical shift in the
production, delivery and use of energy. The demand is for a
rapid and holistic transition.
A three-fold approach:
 A decarbonisation of electricity generation;
 A widespread electrification of the end-uses;
 Enhancements in the end-use energy efficiency.
Transformation in the electricity generation mix
 renewables play a dominant role
Investments in R&D  accelerate the change

8. New stringent & comprehensive policies
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 Emission trading systems;
 Binding targets to reduce emissions and increase energy efficiency;
 Limitations in the construction and use of coal-fired plants;
 Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies;
 Legislation to raise the share of renewable energy sources;
 International cooperation;
 Reduction of political and regulatory uncertainties to mobilize the
private sector participation
Consistent, long-term and credible policies must be
implemented to promote the investments

9. Investments to meet the 2030 targets
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 Yearly US$ 294 billion in energy supply
 Yearly US$ 61 billion in renewable electricity (0.30% US GDP)
 Yearly US$ 88 billion in energy efficiency
Taking into account of US regional heterogeneity

10. Investments to meet the 2030 targets
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 Yearly US$ 294 billion in energy supply
 Yearly US$ 61 billion in renewable electricity (0.30% US GDP)
 Yearly US$ 88 billion in energy efficiency
Taking into account of US regional heterogeneity

11. Renewable electricity generation: technical
capacity potential & future installed capacity
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Technical capacity potential
Renewable electricity generation
> 5,000 GW
3,001 GW to 5,000 GW
2,001 GW to 3,000 GW
1,000 GW to 2,000 GW
< 1,000 GW
Solar
Wind
Bioenergy
Hydro
GeothermalSource: own elaboration on NREL data

12. Renewable electricity generation: technical
capacity potential & future installed capacity
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Renewable
energy
source
Technical capacity
potential
Renewable
electricity
generation (GW)
%
Installed
capacity in
2012 (GW)
%
Share of
installed
capacity over
total potential
Billion US$
Investments
forecast
2014-2030
Avg. Capex
(US$ billion)
per GW
2014 - 2030
forecast new
installed
capacity (GW)
Total
capacity
installed in
2030 (GW)
Share of installed
capacity over
total potential in
2030
Wind 15,178 GW 8.7% 59.57 36.4% 0.4% 397 2.45 162.37 221.94 1.5%
Solar 154,856 GW 88.9% 8.18 5.0% 0.0% 221 1.77 124.86 133.03 0.1%
Bioenergy 62 GW 0.0% 14.02 8.6% 22.6% 148 6.16 24.03 38.04 61.4%
Hydro 98 GW 0.1% 78.26 47.9% 79.9% 54 2.95 18.31 96.56 98.5%
Geothermal 4,000 GW 2.3% 3.50 2.1% 0.1% 217 4.61 47.07 50.58 1.3%
Total 174,195 GW 100.0% 163.52 100.0% 0.1% 1,037 376.63 540.15 0.3%

13. Conclusions & way forward
 The US "Clean Power Plan" is insufficient for a 2°C pathway;
 Holistic and stringent Federal policies to attain targets;
 3-fold approach where renewable electricity plays a key role;
 Policies need to promote new energy investments;
 Immediate action to minimize the costs;
 UN Climate Summit in Paris: policymakers, businesses and
financiers together can make the change happen.
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Luca Soppelsa

14. Thank you for your attention
Luca Soppelsa
http://nl.linkedin.com/in/lucasoppelsa
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