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Whitman College
CFA Research Challenge
February 3, 2017
Hecla Mining Company
San Sebastian mine
Durango, Mexico
Sawyer Shader-Seave
Kyle Fix
Mikaela Slade
Jack Fogarty
http://www.hecla-mining.com/
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Recommendation
BUY
Target Price: $7.62
Upside: 20.19%
2
As of 1/28/17
HL Daily stock price: 6 months
Fair Value: $7.62
Current Price: $6.34
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Undervalued
Cheap Assets
Main Features
 Largest Silver Producer in America
Past Events
 Dividend paid 11/17/16: $0.0025 (0.04%)
Upcoming Events
 4Q Earnings report February 28th
3
NYSE: HL Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Mining Price: $6.34
Market Profile
Closing Price $6.34
52 Week High $7.64
52 Week Low $1.72
Market Capitalization $ 2,506M
Shares Outstanding 395.29M
Float 327.02M
Short % of Float 5.64%
Avg. Daily Volume 108,516
Dividend Yield 0.16%
P/E -
P/B 1.7
P/S 4.1
P/OCF 12.45
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Company Overview
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Silver Market
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Silver Demand by Year and Segment
(millions of OZ)
2013
2014
2015
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Silver Market
19%
25%
6%
50%
2015 Silver Demand by Segment
Jewelry
Coins and Bars
Silverware
Industrial
Fabrication
42%
10%
8%
13%
2%
25%
Industrial Fabrication
Electronics
Brazing
Photography
Solar
Etylene Oxide
Other
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Gold Market
-50
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
Jewelry Technology Investment Bar and
Coin
ETFs, etc. Central
Banks
Total
Demand
Gold Demand by Year and Segment
(tonnes)
Q3 '15
Q3 '16
5-yr avg
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Gold Market
50%
34%
8%
8%
Q3 2016 Gold Demand (tonnes)
Jewelry
Investment
Technology
Central Banks
56%
21%
8%
15%
Q3 2015 Gold Demand (tonnes)
Jewelry
Investment
Technology
Central Banks
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Mining Industry CapEx
 Capital Expenditures (CapEx) down
 Decreasing costs
 Gains in commodity prices will likely
lead to increasing CapEx
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Alternative Financing
 Increase in industrywide streaming
 Hecla does not engage in streaming
transactions
 Greater risk and upside
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Porter’s Five Forces
 Threat of New Entrants- VERY LOW (1/5)
 Threat of Substitutes- HIGH (4/5)
 Bargaining Power of Suppliers- HIGH (4/5)
 Competition- HIGH (4/5)
 Bargaining Power of Buyers- LOW (2/5)
Forward P/E P/Book P/Sales P/Cash Flow
HL 16.2 1.5 3.5 10.5
CDE 13 2.7 2.1 9.9
SLW 15.9 1.6 8.8 13.6
NEM 18.5 1.7 2.3 7.6
KGH-PL 21.5 0.9 1 5.9
ABX 15.7 2.3 2 6.5
Industry
Avg 17.7 1.9 1.4 10.9
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Financial Ratios
As of 1quarter ago
Top Competitors
CDE: Coeur Mining Inc.
SLW: Silver Wheaton Corp.
NEM: Newmont Mining Corp.
KGH-PL: KGHM Polska Miedz SA
ABX: Barrick Gold Corp.
EV/EBITDA NET DEBT/EBITDA
HL 14.73 4.98
CDE 6.56 3.01
SLW 16.19 3.47
NEM 5.59 1.2
KGH-PL 9.87 3.6
ABX 5.96 2.58
Industry Average 10.2 2.07
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
EBITDA Ratios
 EV/EBITDA above industry average
 Above average leverage
 Second highest return among competitors
 Significantly outperformed the industry
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Hecla: Alpha & Beta
Low Beta
 Volatile earnings
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Financials
(millions of $) 5 year
Average
10 Year
Average
EBITDA 137.4 101.5
Net Income 14.4 25.7
Cash Flow
From Operations
71 80.9
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 2015-12
EBITDA
Net income
Net cash provided by
operating activities
Free cash flow
Hecla Profit Metrics: 2006-2015
 Volatile margins
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 2015-12
EBITDA Margin Net Margin
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Financials
EBITDA & Net Margins: 2006-2015
16
 Discounted reserves
 Assets and Liabilities
 Destruction by management
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Valuation
 Proven and Probable reserves
 Based on 2015 production rates
 Discounted annually for their WACC
Reserves
Silver 1,141,519,563.26
Zinc 872,893,736.56
Lead 657,219,636.45
Gold 602,440,706.28
All Reserves 3,274,073,642.55
1,141.52
872.89
657.22
602.44
3,274.07
-
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
Millions
Current Value of Reserves $
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Reserves
thousands of
oz/tonnes
Proven and
Probable
Reserves
Silver 175,429
Gold 2,073
Lead 687,960
Zinc 738,930
 175.43 million oz in reserves
 Based on 2015 production rates
 Discounted 6% annually
 Increasing production rates?
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 y7 y8 y9 y10 y11 y12 y13 y14 y15 y16
Silver Reserves
Annual production oz (based on 2015 production) Discounted value (based on 6% WACC)
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Silver Reserves & Production
Assets (millions of $)
Total cash 159
Receivables 71
Equity and other investments 4
Other long-term assets 5
Total 239
Liabilities (millions of $)
Short-tem debt 2
Long-term debt 500
Total 502
239
502
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Auxiliary
Assets
Debt
 We included Hecla’s most liquid
assets in their Auxiliary Assets
 We also included Hecla’s $502
in short and long-term debt
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Assets & Liabilities
 On average Hecla reinvests $164.7 million
per year
 Hecla averages a 0.86% return or $1.37
million annually
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Destruction of value
 Their annual cost of capital is $9.88 million
leading to a $8.46 million loss per year
 The terminal value of this loss $141.84
million
$164.70
$1.37
-$8.46
-$20.00
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
Destruction of Value
(millions of $)
Average annual reinvestment
of cash
profit from avg annual
investmnet
Average annual return (after
capital costs)
 DCF
 Comparable Company
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Other Valuations
 Lack of Hedging
 Future regulations
 CERCLA 108b
 Management turnover
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Risks
Recommendation
Company
Overview
Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary
Investment Summary
Current Price: $6.34
Target Price: $7.62
Upside: 20.2%
BUYImproving
Efficiency
Cheap
Assets
Possible
Decreasing
Regulations
Questions?

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Whitman CFA Challenge Presentation

  • 1. Whitman College CFA Research Challenge February 3, 2017 Hecla Mining Company San Sebastian mine Durango, Mexico Sawyer Shader-Seave Kyle Fix Mikaela Slade Jack Fogarty http://www.hecla-mining.com/
  • 2. $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 Recommendation BUY Target Price: $7.62 Upside: 20.19% 2 As of 1/28/17 HL Daily stock price: 6 months Fair Value: $7.62 Current Price: $6.34 Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Undervalued Cheap Assets
  • 3. Main Features  Largest Silver Producer in America Past Events  Dividend paid 11/17/16: $0.0025 (0.04%) Upcoming Events  4Q Earnings report February 28th 3 NYSE: HL Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Mining Price: $6.34 Market Profile Closing Price $6.34 52 Week High $7.64 52 Week Low $1.72 Market Capitalization $ 2,506M Shares Outstanding 395.29M Float 327.02M Short % of Float 5.64% Avg. Daily Volume 108,516 Dividend Yield 0.16% P/E - P/B 1.7 P/S 4.1 P/OCF 12.45 Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Company Overview
  • 4. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Silver Market 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Silver Demand by Year and Segment (millions of OZ) 2013 2014 2015
  • 5. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Silver Market 19% 25% 6% 50% 2015 Silver Demand by Segment Jewelry Coins and Bars Silverware Industrial Fabrication 42% 10% 8% 13% 2% 25% Industrial Fabrication Electronics Brazing Photography Solar Etylene Oxide Other
  • 6. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Gold Market -50 150 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 Jewelry Technology Investment Bar and Coin ETFs, etc. Central Banks Total Demand Gold Demand by Year and Segment (tonnes) Q3 '15 Q3 '16 5-yr avg
  • 7. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Gold Market 50% 34% 8% 8% Q3 2016 Gold Demand (tonnes) Jewelry Investment Technology Central Banks 56% 21% 8% 15% Q3 2015 Gold Demand (tonnes) Jewelry Investment Technology Central Banks
  • 8. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Mining Industry CapEx  Capital Expenditures (CapEx) down  Decreasing costs  Gains in commodity prices will likely lead to increasing CapEx
  • 9. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Alternative Financing  Increase in industrywide streaming  Hecla does not engage in streaming transactions  Greater risk and upside
  • 10. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Porter’s Five Forces  Threat of New Entrants- VERY LOW (1/5)  Threat of Substitutes- HIGH (4/5)  Bargaining Power of Suppliers- HIGH (4/5)  Competition- HIGH (4/5)  Bargaining Power of Buyers- LOW (2/5)
  • 11. Forward P/E P/Book P/Sales P/Cash Flow HL 16.2 1.5 3.5 10.5 CDE 13 2.7 2.1 9.9 SLW 15.9 1.6 8.8 13.6 NEM 18.5 1.7 2.3 7.6 KGH-PL 21.5 0.9 1 5.9 ABX 15.7 2.3 2 6.5 Industry Avg 17.7 1.9 1.4 10.9 Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Financial Ratios As of 1quarter ago Top Competitors CDE: Coeur Mining Inc. SLW: Silver Wheaton Corp. NEM: Newmont Mining Corp. KGH-PL: KGHM Polska Miedz SA ABX: Barrick Gold Corp.
  • 12. EV/EBITDA NET DEBT/EBITDA HL 14.73 4.98 CDE 6.56 3.01 SLW 16.19 3.47 NEM 5.59 1.2 KGH-PL 9.87 3.6 ABX 5.96 2.58 Industry Average 10.2 2.07 Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary EBITDA Ratios  EV/EBITDA above industry average  Above average leverage
  • 13.  Second highest return among competitors  Significantly outperformed the industry Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Hecla: Alpha & Beta Low Beta
  • 14.  Volatile earnings Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Financials (millions of $) 5 year Average 10 Year Average EBITDA 137.4 101.5 Net Income 14.4 25.7 Cash Flow From Operations 71 80.9 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 2015-12 EBITDA Net income Net cash provided by operating activities Free cash flow Hecla Profit Metrics: 2006-2015
  • 15.  Volatile margins -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 2015-12 EBITDA Margin Net Margin Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Financials EBITDA & Net Margins: 2006-2015
  • 16. 16  Discounted reserves  Assets and Liabilities  Destruction by management Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Valuation
  • 17.  Proven and Probable reserves  Based on 2015 production rates  Discounted annually for their WACC Reserves Silver 1,141,519,563.26 Zinc 872,893,736.56 Lead 657,219,636.45 Gold 602,440,706.28 All Reserves 3,274,073,642.55 1,141.52 872.89 657.22 602.44 3,274.07 - 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 3,500.00 Millions Current Value of Reserves $ Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Reserves thousands of oz/tonnes Proven and Probable Reserves Silver 175,429 Gold 2,073 Lead 687,960 Zinc 738,930
  • 18.  175.43 million oz in reserves  Based on 2015 production rates  Discounted 6% annually  Increasing production rates? 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 y7 y8 y9 y10 y11 y12 y13 y14 y15 y16 Silver Reserves Annual production oz (based on 2015 production) Discounted value (based on 6% WACC) Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Silver Reserves & Production
  • 19. Assets (millions of $) Total cash 159 Receivables 71 Equity and other investments 4 Other long-term assets 5 Total 239 Liabilities (millions of $) Short-tem debt 2 Long-term debt 500 Total 502 239 502 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Auxiliary Assets Debt  We included Hecla’s most liquid assets in their Auxiliary Assets  We also included Hecla’s $502 in short and long-term debt Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Assets & Liabilities
  • 20.  On average Hecla reinvests $164.7 million per year  Hecla averages a 0.86% return or $1.37 million annually Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Destruction of value  Their annual cost of capital is $9.88 million leading to a $8.46 million loss per year  The terminal value of this loss $141.84 million $164.70 $1.37 -$8.46 -$20.00 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 Destruction of Value (millions of $) Average annual reinvestment of cash profit from avg annual investmnet Average annual return (after capital costs)
  • 21.  DCF  Comparable Company Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Other Valuations
  • 22.  Lack of Hedging  Future regulations  CERCLA 108b  Management turnover Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Risks
  • 23. Recommendation Company Overview Industry Competition Financials Valuation Risks Summary Investment Summary Current Price: $6.34 Target Price: $7.62 Upside: 20.2% BUYImproving Efficiency Cheap Assets Possible Decreasing Regulations