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Investment Biases
Endowment Effect
• Become emotionally attached to the winner
stocks that previously gave huge returns
• Reluctant to sell them even if analysis shows
they will drop in intrinsic value
• Chance of occurrence among professional
investors – 25%
Regret Aversion
• Afraid of buying too much of a stock even if it
is a good investment
• Reason – So that they can pat themselves on
the back if they’re right while also avoid big
regrets if they’re wrong
• Chance of occurrence among portfolio
managers – 16.67%
Loss aversion
• Hold on to losers for too long
• Reason - pain of accepting that you’ve made a
mistake
• Hope that the stock will rebound
• Most common among individual investors
than professional managers
Representativeness
• Belief that good company must also be a good
stock, or a mediocre company a bad stock
• Undermining the concept of overpriced and
underpriced
How to Avoid it?
• Peer reviews by more objective team
members
• Quantitative models more often to make final
decisions
Are Quant models free of bias?
• No, there is bias called Anchoring
• Every quant gets anchored to a few factors,
such as the value or momentum effect
• But even these models are based on some
peoples finding backed by some explanations
• What if these people were wrong in
identifying the reasons for the prices?
Source - Bloomberg
• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-
07/how-money-managers-fight-their-
emotions-and-sometimes-lose.html
@KritiCapital
www.facebook.com/KritiCapital
www.kriticapital.com.np
www.linkedin.com/company/kriti-
capital-&-investments-ltd

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Investment biases

  • 2. Endowment Effect • Become emotionally attached to the winner stocks that previously gave huge returns • Reluctant to sell them even if analysis shows they will drop in intrinsic value • Chance of occurrence among professional investors – 25%
  • 3. Regret Aversion • Afraid of buying too much of a stock even if it is a good investment • Reason – So that they can pat themselves on the back if they’re right while also avoid big regrets if they’re wrong • Chance of occurrence among portfolio managers – 16.67%
  • 4. Loss aversion • Hold on to losers for too long • Reason - pain of accepting that you’ve made a mistake • Hope that the stock will rebound • Most common among individual investors than professional managers
  • 5. Representativeness • Belief that good company must also be a good stock, or a mediocre company a bad stock • Undermining the concept of overpriced and underpriced
  • 6. How to Avoid it? • Peer reviews by more objective team members • Quantitative models more often to make final decisions
  • 7. Are Quant models free of bias? • No, there is bias called Anchoring • Every quant gets anchored to a few factors, such as the value or momentum effect • But even these models are based on some peoples finding backed by some explanations • What if these people were wrong in identifying the reasons for the prices?
  • 8. Source - Bloomberg • http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04- 07/how-money-managers-fight-their- emotions-and-sometimes-lose.html

Editor's Notes

  1. “They say at manufacturing plants you need two individuals to run them -- a person and a dog. The person to work the computer, and a dog to bite the person if he doesn’t listen to the computer.” - Gregg S. Fisher, chief investment officer of Gerstein Fisher, a New York money manager