1. K E Y N O T E
Keynote Capitals Institutional Research - Industry Monitor January 24, 2012
Industries covered
• Banks
• Cement
• Infrastructure
• IT
• Media & Entertainment
Executive Summary
RBI keeps interest rates steady but cuts CRR by 50 bps effective from January 28, 2012
The Reserve Bank of India left interest rates on hold but cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks by
50 basis points (bps), a move that eases tight liquidity in the banking system and underscores a policy
shift from fighting inflation to reviving growth. The RBI has cut the CRR by 50 bps to 5.5%. The
central bank maintained repo and reverse repo rates at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively.
Cement Industry reviving
A slew of positive news highlighted first fortnight of the New Year for the cement industry. The
industry posted double digit volume growth of 14% for December 2011 driven by revival in demand in
the northern and western markets. Cement prices are likely to post 2-3% rise in January 2012 as
industry players plan to pass on all the coal cost rise to the customers. Ultratech Cement posted
better results than estimated while news that Dalmia Bharat acquired 50% stake in Assam based
Calcom fuel some confidence in the sector.
India, Japan discuss bilateral co-operation in road, rail and shipping sectors
Intensifying the historically strong bilateral relations between the two nations, Indian and Japanese
officials held talks on increasing co-operation in Indian infrastructure sector. A high level delegation
led by Japanese Minister for Land Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Takeshi Maeda met
C P Joshi, Minister of Road Transport and Highways and discussed bilateral cooperation in
infrastructure sector with special reference to road construction. A Memorandum of Cooperation
(MOC) prepared by MORTH (India) is in the process of finalizing which is to be sign by Japanese
minister of MLIT.
IT stocks declined after IT bellwether Infosys issued a muted outlook for Q4FY12
BSE IT index closed at 5499.91, down 6.44% during the last fortnight vis-à-vis its previous week. The
gainers on the BSE IT index were Wipro, Mphasis and Financial technology up 2.02%, 12.59% and
14.58%, respectively and Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech were losers on the BSE IT index. IT stocks
declined after IT bellwether Infosys issued a muted outlook for Q4FY12 at the time of reporting
Q3,FY12 results. Infosys cut its earnings and revenue growth guidance in dollar terms for the year
ending March 2012 (FY 2012).
Recent media deals point to consolidation in the industry
India's splintered media landscape has made news in the past two weeks. A flurry of deals or talks of
more similar transactions have stirred up the sector in recent days. Industry executives and experts
believe the consolidation trend will pick up momentum in 2012 in this highly splintered sector that is
being increasingly hobbled by cost pressures and revenue challenges in a slowing economy.
Weightages in major indices
Sectors Sensex Nifty BSE 500 CNX 500
Banks 24.55% 23.51% 24.33% 23.12%
Cement 0.51% 2.80% 2.70% 2.70%
Infrastructure 8.31% 8.56% 7.57% 7.61%
Information & Technology 14.21% 12.61% 9.77% 9.80%
Media & Entertainment 0.79% 0.79%

2. K E Y N O T E
Banking Industry Monitor
Banking Industry and its contribution to Indian equities
Banking and other Finance firms together have the highest weightage in the Sensex and BSE 500
with 24.55% and 24.33% respectively. The major players in BANKEX Index are the private banks
namely ICICI Bank (26.79%), which is the second largest bank in India with HDFC Bank LT (25.23%).
Other banks include SBI (15.23%), Axis Bank (7.46%) and Kotak Bank (5.53%). The sector’s
weightage in CNX Nifty is 23.51% and in CNX 500 is 23.12%.
RBI keeps interest rates steady but cuts CRR by 50 bps effective from January 28
The Reserve Bank of India in its quarterly review meet on January,24 2012 cut the CRR by 50 bps to
ease tight liquidity pressure in the banking system. The central bank maintained repo and reverse
repo rates at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday said the
growth outlook and business climate have weakened but warned of upward risks to inflation in its
Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Third Quarter Review 2011-12.
The cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to hold with the RBI, is a popular
instrument to inject cash into the system. The RBI has cut the CRR by 50 bps to 5.5% from 6% where
it had stood since April 2010. Banks are borrowing more than `1.2 lakh crore from the RBI, which is
double of what the central bank has said it is comfortable with. Sending out a clear signal to corporate
India and the market about a possible reversal of its stance on raising rates, the RBI said, “CRR cut
will infuse `32,000Cr into banks.” The bank hiked rates 13 times since March 2010, the most
aggressive pace of monetary tightening among its global peers, to deal with the persistently high
inflation, including rising prices of food items. The RBI left interest rates unchanged in December.
"The growth-inflation balance of the monetary policy stance has now shifted to growth, while at the
same time ensuring that inflationary pressures remain contained," RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao
said in his policy statement. "The reduction can also be viewed as a reinforcement of the guidance
that future rate actions will be towards lowering them," Subbarao said, adding that it was premature to
cut the policy interest rate based on the current inflation outlook.
BoB to expand its international operations by opening more branches overseas
Bank of Baroda plans to expand its international operations by opening more than a dozen branches
and representative offices overseas in six months. “At present, the bank has 87 branches and offices
spread across 25 countries and this number is expected to touch 100 by June-July”, Chairman and
Managing Director, M D Mallya said. Overseas operations constitute 24-25% of the bank's total
business. "Asset quality of international operations is very strong," he said. “BoB will open branches in
Kuala Lampur, Surinam, Uganda, Tanzania and Botswana and couple more branches in New
Zealand and the UAE, while its representative office in Australia will be converted into a branch”,
Mr.Mallya added. He also said the GoI plans to infuse `775Cr into the bank to raise its holding from
57 to 58% by the end of current fiscal year. The bank has 71 branches in Karnataka and this number
is expected to cross 100 in a year or so, he added.
SBI to expand microfinance portfolio by 50% in Q4FY12
State Bank of India plans to grow its microfinance portfolio by 50% in the fourth quarter, drawing
comfort from the Reserve Bank of India's move to frame guidelines for microfinance institutions. SBI's
move is expected to lift lender sentiment and offer a psychological boost to MFIs. The country's
largest lender aims to increase its sectoral exposure to 1,300-1,400 crore by March this year from 900
crore in December, a senior SBI executive said. While SBI's exposure to the MFI sector constitutes a
tiny portion of its loan book, it's a sizeable amount for micro lenders serving small borrowers.
The Microfinance Institutions Network, the umbrella organisation for the NBFC-MFIs, held a meeting
with leading bankers to explore ways to increase lending to the sector. The meeting was to sensitise
bankers about the latest developments in the sector. Things have changed drastically over the last 12
months.

3. K E Y N O T E
Banks in talks with RBI, for recast of power sector loans
Country's largest lender State Bank of India has said that banks are in talks with the Reserve Bank of
India on possible restructuring of loans to the power sector projects that are facing problems in
implementation. "We are working with the RBI on how this can be done without the banks being
required to make any provisioning," said SBI's Chairman Mr.Pratip Chaudhuri.
He, however, clarified that the SBI, which has over `32,000Cr exposure in the power sector, has not
yet received any "special request" from the power sector for restructuring of loans. "They are saying
that they would be in position to service their debts," said Mr.Chaudhuri after having pre-Budget
consultation with Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. "We are giving loans to all big companies...It's
not right for us to equate all the companies," he added. Mr.Chaudhuri added that the risk in power
sector is micro not macro and in some cases power companies have said that the implementation of
projects have got delayed due to reasons beyond their control.
The finance ministry had asked state-run banks to give company-wise exposure to loans in four stress
sectors-aviation, telecom, commercial, real estate and power utilities which have raised worries that it
could spike the bad loans and could derail their lending plans. The gross non-performing assets, or
NPAs, of commercial banks have risen over 25,000 crore in the first six months of the current fiscal.
State-run banks wrote off nearly `17,300Cr in 2010-11 against `11,000Cr in the year before.
As per the latest figures, as on November 30, state-run banks have request for restructuring of 344
loan accounts with an outstanding of `1.65 lakh crore. Public sector banks had exposure worth over
`2.97 lakh crore to the power sector at the end of second quarter of the current fiscal, with maximum
credit doled out by SBI.
HDFC Bank has cut back on corporate lending to protect profit margin
HDFC Bank, India's third largest lender by assets, has cut back a little on corporate lending in order to
protect margins, a senior official said. "On wholesale side, while we continue to grow our book at
15%, we have cut back a little on corporate lending," Executive Director, Mr.Paresh Sukthankar said.
"If you look at marginal fixed deposit rates and marginal yield on short-term rates we thought it was
not worthwhile from margin perspective," he added. Earlier on Thursday, HDFC Bank reported a
higher-than-expected 31.2% in quarterly net profit as a drop in loan-loss provisions and higher fee
income made up for weak loan demand.

4. K E Y N O T E
Cement Industry Monitor
Cement Industry and its contribution to Indian equities
Major cement companies traded in BSE 500 and CNX 500 indices are ACC, Ambuja Cements,
Ultratech Cement, Shree Cement and India Cements while the sector's weightage is 2.70% in both
the indices. J P Associates, which has diversified infrastructure business with sizeable presence in
the cement industry, is only player in the BSE Sensex with weight age of 0.51% while in CNX Nifty the
total weight age of ACC, Ambuja Cements and J P Associates is 2.80%.
Cement industry posted double-digit growth for second consecutive month
The Indian cement industry posted double-digit growth for second consecutive month, as demand
revived in the northern and western markets. The sector giants such as UltraTech, ACC, Ambuja,
Shree Cement and JP Associates had robust sales in December.
For the second month in a row, the nearly 300-million tonne industry posted 14% growth (year-on-
year) in despatches. It sold 19.78 mt during December 2011 against 17.35 mt during the same month
in the previous year. Industry posted 19.46% yoy growth in November 2011.
Interestingly, double-digit growth is being witnessed during months when all-India average cement
prices were at an all-time high of `280 for a 50-kg bag (though, these then declined by `15-20 a bag
in the later part of the quarter).
In 2010-11, the industry reported the poorest growth in a decade, of less than five per cent. Currently,
manufacturers’biggest concern is rising coal prices and sustainability of demand. The capacity target
set for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-12) is already met. Companies added close to 120 mt during
this period, with capital outlay of `50,000Cr. However, on growth, the industry missed its 10-plus per
cent annual target. After 2009, excess supply started taking a toll on the companies.
Cement prices likely to rise 2-3% in January
Cement prices are likely to rise by 2-3 percent in January as companies will pass on the cost increase
from the new pricing policy of Coal India, the world's largest coal miner, Crisil said in a report on
Monday. Generally, 4th quarter of the financial year remains the best quarter for the industry.
Ultratech Cement posted better than consensus earnings growth
Firm cement prices and a steady increase in despatches through 2011 have raised hopes on the
outlook for the cement sector. UltraTech Cement posted better than expected sales and profit growth
for Q3FY12.
From the year-ago period, net sales grew 17% to `4,572Cr. It was 23% higher than the September
quarter, a relatively dull period for cement companies on account of monsoon.
Operating margin rose from 16.7% in the year-ago period and a low 8% in the preceding quarter to
about 23%. Operating profit per tonne of cement sold was around ` 930 during the quarter, higher
than ` 710 a year ago and ` 620 in the preceding quarter.
Dalmia Bharat picks up 50% stake in Calcom
Dalmia Cement Bharat Ltd. (DCBL), a subsidiary of Dalmia Bharat Enterprises, has picked up a 50%
stake in Assam-based Calcom Cement India (Calcom) for an investment US$47m. Calcom is in the
process of expanding its consolidated cement manufacturing capacity to 2.1Mt/yr.
DCBL's move is part of its larger aims to expand its cement business to northern and northeastern.
Dalmia has 9.5Mt/yr capacity and holds little over 45% in Orissa Cements, which has a capacity of
around 5.5M/yr. The company is also looking to set up two greenfield plants in Karnataka with a
capacity of 2.5Mt/yr each.

5. K E Y N O T E
Infrastructure Industry Monitor
Infra sector has underperformed over the last one year but now has seen some positive movement
over the last month and expected to be outperformer because of budget coming up. The government
has taken efforts to increase the infra spending. We remain positive on the sector.
Government to build 3200 MT port capacity by 2020
The central government has embarked upon expanding capacity of Indian ports to 3200MT by
attracting investments to the tune of `287000Cr. GK Vasan, Union Minister of Shipping opined that
the government aims to enhance the current capacity of ports, which is little over 1,000 MT with 13
centre-owned major and about 200 non-major ports, on par with best global ports.
Power Ministry supports raising import duties on power equipment
The Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde has requested the finance ministry to impose customs duties
on the import of transmission and distribution equipment into the country. Sushilkumar Shinde said
that it was not possible to do earlier as most of the foreign companies had set shops in India on the
assurance that they would be protected. The scenario had changed and India had enough capacity to
meet domestic demand. Hence, the protection is expected to be provided in the 12th Plan.
Ramky Infra’s SPV signs concession agreement with NHAI
The company has signed the concession agreement with National Highways Authority of India (NHAI)
for undertaking a project awarded by NHAI. The concession period for the project is 25 years
including the construction period of 910 days. The estimated cost of the project as per the client is
`1033Cr.
Punj Lloyd Group bags LOA from Delhi Police for `1300Cr social infra project
Punj Lloyd Group arm has bagged a Letter of Award (LOA) from Delhi Police for the development of
Police Residential Complex at Dheerpur, Delhi on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer
(DBFOT) basis. With an estimated cost of around `1300Cr, the project primarily entails development
operation and maintenance of the residential zone of over 5000 units i.e., around 40 lakh sq ft along
with utility facilities such as sewerage and water treatment. Development and commercial operations
of the non-residential infrastructure such as school, healthcare, convenience shopping, as per the
norms laid down in the Delhi Master Plan 2021 was also included in the project.
Reliance Infrastructure to merge five wholly owned subsidiaries with itself
Reliance Infrastructure has received an approval for the proposed scheme of arrangement whereby it
will merge five wholly owned subsidiaries with itself. The five subsidiaries are Reliance Energy,
Reliance Energy Generation, Reliance Goa and Samalkot Power, Reliance Infraventures and
Reliance Property Developers. It has also received an approval whereby it will demerge the container
business undertaking of Reliance Infrastructure Engineers with the company. The board at its meeting
held on January 17, 2012 has approved for the same. As per the scheme, share are not proposed to
be issued as the transferor companies and the demerged companies are wholly owned subsidiaries
of the company.
GMR Infra’s step down subsidiary commissions 25 MW solar power plant in Gujarat
GMR Gujarat Solar Power has commissioned 25 MW grid interactive solar power project at Patan
district in Gujarat. With commissioning of this plant it marks GMR Group's foray into the renewable
energy space. This project was awarded on Oct 2010 under the Gujarat Solar Policy. This plant
adopts the crystalline PV technology and is situated in the solar park set up by the Government of
Gujarat, at Charanka village in Patan District. The project was successfully commissioned on Dec 31,
2011 and holds the distinction of being the first amongst several projects coming up in solar park to
be synchronized with the grid.
GVKPIL’s step down subsidiary inks concession agreement with NHAI
GVK Shivpuri Dewas Expressway has signed a concession agreement on January 12, 2012 with
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI). The agreement is for four laning of Shivpuri Dewas
section of National Highway No 3 (from Km 236.000 to Km 566.450) for a length of 332.46 kilometers
in the state of Madhya Pradesh to be executed as BOT (Toll) project on DBFOT Pattern under
National Highways Development Programme (NHDP) phase IV. The concession period for the project
is for 30 years including construction period of 30 months.

6. K E Y N O T E
IT Industry Monitor
IT Industry and its contribution to Indian equities
IT sector has weightage of 9.77% and 9.80% in BSE 500 and CNX 500 with major stocks are Infosys,
TCS and Wipro. The sector is also represented through BSE IT and CNX IT indices. IT sector
companies also constitute major portion of Sensex and Nifty with weightages of 14.21% and 12.61%.
Rupee depreciation helped IT companies to maintain their margins
Infosys
Particulars Revenues Q-o-Q Y-o-Y PAT Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Margin
`Cr 9298.0 14.8% 30.8% 2372.0 24.4% 33.3% 25.5%
$ Mn 1806.0 3.4% 14.0% 458.0 11.4% 16.0% 25.4%
In INR terms, Revenues grew 14.8% Q-o-Q and 30.8% Y-o-Y to `9298Cr which was ahead of the
Management’s guidance, Primary on account of the significant depreciation of INR.
In USD terms, Revenues grew 3.4% Q-o-Q and 13.9% Y-o-Y to $1806Mn which was in line with the
Management’s guidance.
The company has added one of the largest number of clients this quarter, 49 new clients have been
added. Six of them are in Fortune 500.
Geography-wise Europe has shown good performance which grew by 14%, Whereas US and Rest of
the world was flattish as compared to Q-o-Q. Whereas in terms of vertical, Manufacturing, Retails and
Transportation & Logistics grew by 4.5%, 0.8% and 21.7% Q-o-Q, respectively.
During the Q3FY12 the company and its subsidiaries saw over 6389 employees leaving. While the
company and its subsidiaries hired 9655 employees, the net addition stood at 3266 for the reported
quarter. The company has current employee strength of 145088 as on Q2FY12
HCL Tech
Particulars Revenues Q-o-Q Y-o-Y PAT Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Margin
`Cr 5245.2 12.8% 35.0% 572.7 15.3% 43.3% 10.9%
$ Mn 1022.0 2.0% 18.3% 111.6 4.2% 25.6% 10.9%
The company reported volume growth of 4.9% Q-o-Q, but better than peers (INFO: 3.1%, TCS:
3.2%). EBITDA margin expanded to 18.5% and was better than the consensus driven by currency
depreciation. Moreover, onsite volume growth was 5.7% Q-o-Q, with 36 net new client additions
According to the management, in CY12, ~US$48bn (249 deals) are up for renewal. With 30% churn in
vendors, ~US$15bn (with 20-30% discount ~US$10bn of TCV) worth of contracts is up for grabs
(50% of that is from Europe).
The management indicated no cuts in the IT budget from the clients. Moreover, the deal signing is
likely to be weak in the quarter because of the seasonality. But the deal pipeline is likely to swell
towards the end of CY12

7. K E Y N O T E
TCS
Particulars Revenues Q-o-Q Y-o-Y PAT Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Margin
`Cr 13204.0 13.5% 36.6% 2803.0 21.8% 18.2% 21.2%
$ Mn 2586.0 2.4% 20.6% 568.0 4.2% 25.6% 22.0%
The company reported revenue growth of 13.5% in rupee term as compared to Q-o-Q in Q3,FY12
and Volume growth of 3.2% (v/s 3.1% for Infosys) was the lowest since Q4,FY11.
The realizations improved 198bp Q-o-Q after three consecutive quarters of declines due to a change
in portfolio mix, with higher growth in GDCs being a significant contributor.
TCS won 9 large deals during the quarter and added 40 new clients during the quarter (v/s 49
additions at Infosys)
Utilization excluding trainees declined 1pp Q-o-Q to 82% (v/s 83.1% in 2Q). Utilization including
trainees slid further (2.4pp Q-o-Q) to 74% (v/s 76.4% in 2Q).
Gross employee additions during the quarter were 18,907 while net additions stood at 11,981, taking
the total employee count to 226,751.
Attrition rate was 12.8% (v/s 14.4% in 2QFY12).
Management commentary has been toned down v/s previous quarters, with the company indicating
that it is seeing a delay in decision making for 50% of its discretionary projects; commentary on
pricing continues to be flat with no upward or downward bias.
Wipro
Particulars Revenue Q-o-Q Y-o-Y PAT Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Margin
`Cr 9880.8 9.7% 26.3% 1456.0 12.0% 10.4% 14.7%
$ Mn 1864 1.5% 6.8% 275.0 3.8% -6.5% 14.8%
Reported Revenues at `9880.8Cr sequential growth of 9.7%.
Strong improvement in Revenue productivity – Offshore realizations up by 3.6% and Onsite
realizations up by 4.3% on constant currency.
Net addition of 5,004 people, second successive quarter of 5000 plus net adds
Voluntary quarter annualized attrition dropped to 14.2%, lowest in eight quarters, a drop of 9% in two
quarters
39 new clients added during the quarter
US and Europe grew by 3.8% and -3.1% Q-o-Q. In terms of verticals, BFSI and Healthcare reported
growth of 3.0% and 4.3% Q-o-Q. In terms of services, ADM and BAS reported growth of 3.9% and
3.2% Q-o-Q.
The company has guided for IT Services revenue growth of 1-3% Q-o-Q in USD terms to range
$1,520-1,550mn.

8. K E Y N O T E
Media Industry Monitor
Major listed Media & Entertainment companies included in BSE 500 and CNX 500 indices are Zee
Entertainment Enterprises, Dish TV India, Sun TV Network, Jagran Prakashan and UTV Software
Communications, while the sector's weight age is 0.79% in both the indices.
Recent media deals point to consolidation in the industry
India's splintered media landscape has made news in the past two weeks. A flurry of deals or talks of
more similar transactions have stirred up the sector in recent days.
Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries’ foray into Raghav Bahl-promoted Network18 Media &
Investments and TV18 Broadcast through an Independent Media Trust, Reliance Industries’ purchase
of 1.14% stake in DEN Networks, Oswal Green Tech buying a 14.17% shareholding in New Delhi
Television (NDTV) through two block stock market deals and Anil's firm Reliance Capital increased its
shareholding in UTV News, which runs Bloomberg TV, by buying out UTV founder Ronnie
Screwvala's 66% stake are some major deal taken place in the recent 2-3 week in media landscape
has reinforced the point of consolidation in the industry.
Industry executives and experts believe the consolidation trend will pick up momentum in 2012 in this
highly splintered sector that is being increasingly hobbled by cost pressures and revenue challenges
in a slowing economy.
Reliance Media to move businesses to its subsidiaries
Reliance MediaWorks, a film and entertainment company of ADAG, has approved separating its
exhibition and film and media services businesses into subsidiaries. The proposed restructuring of the
company is a precursor to inviting investments from strategic and private equity investors who have
expressed an interest in specific businesses. The proposed subsidiarisation will better position the
company to pursue strategic growth opportunities in its specific businesses and enable the company
to enhance its business, revenues and profitability and also expand products and service offerings.
Reliance MediaWorks has plans to launch `500Cr rights issue by March 2012. It is also in talks to
raise `400-500Cr from global private equity firms and other investors to cut its debt of `1,500Cr.
Viacom18 to launch English comedy channel
Viacom18 Media, a joint venture between Viacom and Network18, will launch a comedy channel in
English named 'Comedy Central' in the country next week. Comedy Central will be the sixth channel
in Viacom18's stable and Viacom18 Media is looking at launching it on January 23, across seven
cities to start with.
Eros International Media counting on 3D wave to boost profit
Eros International Media is expecting that its earnings to grow at 30% both this fiscal year and next
year as Indian film-goers is now inclined for more 3D and other digitally enhanced offerings. Eros
International is counting on a large line-up of big-budget productions and improving ticket sales after a
dearth of movie releases in India hurt sales and earnings in the second quarter of the current year.
Eros International, which recently produced the Shah Rukh Khan sci-fi film "Ra.One" in 3D, has three
more 3D movies in the pipeline and at least five big-budget films set for release in coming months.
Reliance Strategic Investments buys 1.14% stake in DEN networks
Reliance Strategic Investments, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, has bought a 1.14% stake in
DEN Networks, one of the two listed cable distribution companies in India. This may be the beginning
of strategic investments in cable distribution companies as cable distribution companies will need
huge funds to invest in digitization, as mandated by the government.
Star Network acquires over 500 movies rights from Colors
Star Network has acquired more than 500 movies rights from Colors in a deal believed to be worth
`350-400Cr. The movies were a part of the acquisition that the general entertainment channel,
Colors, owned by the Viacom 18 Group, had made for the movie channel it was supposed to launch
last year, but eventually deferred it.

9. K E Y N O T E
KEYNOTE CAPITALS LTD.
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