1. Uni-Asia Group (SGX:CHJ, UAG:SP)
Groundbreaking Seafarer
Non-Rated
Share Price:
Potential Fair Value:
Potential Upside:
S$0.775
S$0.985
27.0%
Statistics
GICS Industry:
Bloomberg Ticker:
52 week range:
Free float:
Avg 3M daily volume(m):
Shares (m):
Market Cap:
Enterprise Value:
P/E:
P/NAV:
Dividend Yield:
Consumer Discretionary
UAG:SP
S$0.69 – S$0.93
46.8%
0.11
78.6m
S$60.9m
S$235.1m
27.3x
0.36x
6.0%
Uni-Asia Group Limited (UAG) operates as an alternative investment
company. The Company offers structured finance, ship charter
arrangement, shipping and maritime asset management, real estate
investment, and other related services. Uni-Asia Group serves customers in
Asia.
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Our valuation of Uni-Asia Group Ltd results in fair value of S$0.985,
presenting a 27.0% upside potential. Our valuation methodology is based on
a combination of a Dividend Discount Model and Sum-of-the-Parts
calculation. The views are underpinned by the following two investment
theses: (1) improving business fundamentals, (2) attractive asset & yield
play.
(1) Improving business fundamentals. While UAG’s shipping segment
continues to struggle amidst industry headwinds and the escalating US-
China trade war, the property and hotel segment has been profitable and is
set to grow. The Group’s existing Hong Kong property projects provide
earnings visibility up till 2021 with at least one project slated for
completion each year. In Japan, UAG is poised to take on more ALERO
projects with its S$5.4m new war chest from the recent private placement.
The Group’s hotel management business is also expected to grow 35% by
2020.
(2) Attractive asset and yield play. UAG is currently trading at a multi-
year low P/B of 0.34x despite improving fundamentals and numerous
impairments already made on its maritime investments (57.4% of total
assets). UAG is currently providing a dividend yield of 6.0% which places
the Group as one of the highest yielding SGX-listed shipping/property-
development counters.
Valuations:
Our Dividend Discount Model assumes a cost of equity of 7.30% derived
using the CAPM model and terminalgrowth rate of 1.97%. Sum-of-the-parts
valuation assumes that the shipping segment, property segment and hotel
segment trades at 0.5xP/B, 0.7x P/B and 19.0x P/E respectively.
Key risks: (1) Cyclicality of core business, (2) High net gearing, (3) FX risks.
Catalysts: (1) Increased trading volume with bonus issue, (2) Progress in
trade talks, (3) Boosted Japanese tourist arrivals
Additional Points. (1) UAG is currently covered by a single brokerage house
which has a BUY recommendation with a post-bonus issue fair value target
of S$1.24, which implies a 0.6x FY19 P/B and 9.5x P/E.
(2) The Apr 2019 private placement included institutional investors such as
Judah Value Activist Fund, Hibiki Path Value Fund and Golden Hill
Investments. The investors’ entry price is S$0.72 per share (adjusted for
bonus issue) which could provide a price floor for the counter.
9th Jun 2019
Valuation as at 09th
Jun 2019
Discounted Dividend Model
Risk Free Rate 2.13%
Equity Risk Premium 6.96%
Beta 0.74
Costof Equity 7.30%
TargetPrice $0.985
Total Return 27.0%
0.65
0.75
0.85
STI (Rebased) UAG
1-Yr Share Performance vs STI (Rebased)
Key Financials
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Revenue (US$m) 103.9 123.3 137.8 156.9 156.9
YoY Growth 20.4% 18.7% 11.7% 13.9% 0.0%
EBITDA Margin 41.0% 37.1% 35.8% 32.1% 33.3%
EBIT Margin 23.9% 19.9% 15.5% 14.0% 15.0%
PAT Margin 15.5% 10.9% 4.5% 4.7% 5.9%
ROA 12.5% 10.5% 4.6% 5.2% 6.3%
ROE 11.8% 10.0% 4.4% 5.0% 6.0%
Summary Page
Key Shareholders
Yamasa Co. Ltd 30.00%
Evergreen InternationalSA 8.95%
Tanamoto Michio 2.23%
Fukumori Masaki 1.97%
Ham Yong Kwan 1.80%
1Prepared by: Bryan Tan Jun Han, Kenny Chia, Yee Jin Koi www.thelittlesnowball.com
2. Shipping,
30.00%
Property &
Hotels,
70.00%
Headquarters
, 0.11%
BusinessDescription
Uni-Asia Group Limited (UAG), together with its subsidiaries, primarily
operates hotels. It operates hotels under the Hotel Vista and Hotel Vista
Premio brands. The company also owns and charters ships, as well as
provides ship commercial management services. In addition, it is involved
in the structuring of ship investment vehicles and investment management
of ships under such vehicles; and management and administration of
investment vehicles, as well as provision of finance arrangement solutions.
Further, the company offers shipping related brokerage services for
chartering, as well as purchases and sells ships; and commercial and
technical management services for ships. The company has operations in
Japan, rest of Asia, and internationally. UAG was founded in 1997 and is
based in Singapore.
Geographic andBusiness Segments
UAG’s business can be segregated into 3 main segments: Shipping, Property
& Hotels, as well as Headquarters. Its Shipping segment contributed to 30%
of total revenues in 2018 and aims to provide a full suite of solutions for
clients. These include chartering of ships, ship management, as well as ship
financing and administration. Its Property & Hotels segment contributed to
70% of 2018 revenues. This segment is involved in property investment and
hotel management. UAG’s businesses can also be divided geographically.
Its Global geographic segment mainly services shipping clients who do not
have a fixed geographic location. The Japan segment earns revenues
through shipping services as well as through UAG’s hotel management
business. Lastly, the Asia Ex Japan segment comprises of revenues from
ship financing as well as UAG’s property investment business in Hong Kong
and China.
ShippingStrategy
UAG offers a one-stop integrated ship-related service solutions for clients,
including ship owners, ship investors and ship operators. This allows UAG to
be resilient regardless of the market conditions. UAG’s shipping business is
diversified into 3 sub-segments.
(1) Uni-Asia Shipping – This sub-segment owns and charters out handysize
bulk carriers providing recurrent income and operating cash flows to the
Group. It presently owns/ co-owns 8 vessels with DWT ranging from 28,709
tons to 37,700 tons.
(2) Maritime Asset Management (MAM) – This sub-segment plans and
develops investment structures, either as standalone special purpose
vehicles or shipping funds, and manages such structures as the asset
manager. MAM also provides structured finance solutions to clients. MAM’s
investment portfolio can include bulk carriers, containerships and tankers.
It earns revenues through investment returns as well as from administration
& management fees. MAM presently owns/co-owns 14 vessels (bulk and
containerships) in its portfolio.
(3) Maritime Services – This sub-segment provides ship-related services
including commercial / technical management of ships and brokerage
servicesfor chartering as well as sale and purchase of ships.
Property & Hotels
UAG’s propertyand hotels business is broken down into 3 sub-segments.
(1) Property Investment ex Japan – This sub-segment is involved in
property investment in China, Hong Kong and other countries in Asia. To
date, UAG has invested in 6 commercial properties in Hong Kong and 14
commercial propertiesin China
(2) Property Investment in Japan – This sub-segment is underpinned by
the ALERO series of small residential property projects in Tokyo. The
residential projects are developed and subsequently leased out or sold for
profit. UAG has completed 30 projects thus far, with 6 more to be
completed in FY2019.
(3) Vista Hotel Management – This sub-segment operates business hotels in
Japan. UAG currently manages 16 hotels, with 5 more scheduled for
opening in 2019 & 2020.
Corporate Governance
UAG’s Board of Directors have 7 members and 3 committees: Audit (AC),
Nominating (NC) and Remuneration (RC). There are 3 independent
members and 1 female member.
In terms of shareholder structure, there are 78.6 million outstanding shares
of only one share class. Shareholders have voting rights and Directors are
re-elected annually.
Shipping Segment
2018 Revenue by Operating Segments
2018 Revenue by Geographic Segments
Property & Hotels Segment
Source: Japfa Annual Report 2018
Source: Bloomberg
Global,
35.0%
Asia Ex
Japan, 10.0%
Japan, 55.0%
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
Company Background
Shipping,
30.00%
Property &
Hotels,
70.00%
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
Shipping
Uni-Asia
Shipping
Maritime
Asset
Management
Maritime
Services
Property
& Hotels
Property
Investment
ex Japan
Property
Investment
in Japan
Vista Hotel
Management
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
2
9th Jun 2019
3. Industry Overview
Dry Bulk UAG’s shipping business has a large focus on dry bulk carriers. As
such, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) would be the appropriate barometer for the
outlook of this segment. The index plunged at the start of 2019 to a low of
610, compounded by seasonal and non-seasonal factors including Vale dam
disaster in Brazil in January 2019 and Cyclone Veronica in Australia. This is
in addition to uncertainty in global trade due to US-China trade tensions.
However, dry cargo rates have been on the rise and UAG is cautiously
optimistic that dry bulk market will pick up seasonally from the current
lows.
Hong Kong Commercial Property The group has invested in 6 office
properties in Hong Kong thus far. According to the Hong Kong Private Office
Price Index compiled by the Hong Kong government, office property prices
have fallen since the start of 2019. This can be attributed to weakened
sentiment in Hong Kong due to mounting trade tensions between the US
and China. The total investment volume in the Hong Kong commercial
property market has also fallen in 2018. Moving forward, with the US
halting interest rate hikes, Hong Kong’s interest rates are expected to
remain depressed. This would be positive for the investment climate and
should help to alleviate negative sentimentsin the property market.
Japan Residential Property Residential property prices have been on the
rise for the past 5 years in Japan. This could be aided by the prolonged
low-interest rate environment, making it cheaper to fund a property
purchase: According to CEIC, variable rates for home mortgage loans being
offered averaged about 0.41% in Japan. Moving forward, UAG believes that
the Japanese residentialproperty market would remain robust.
Japan Hotels According to Savills, the number of overseas tourists to Japan
reached 31.2 million, an increase of 8.7% YoY. Tourist spending in Japan
also grew for the seventh consecutive year, rising 2% to 4.5 trillion yen.
These healthy growth rates were observed even in a year marred with
natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and typhoons. The Japan
hospitality industry can also look forward to events such as the 2019 Rugby
World Cup as well as the 2020 Olympics to boost tourist arrivals and
occupancy rates in hotels. With demand set to remain strong, a cause for
concern for hoteliersmight be the rising supply of hotels in Japan.
Competitive Positioning
Uni-Asia prides itself as an integrated Service Provider for maritime
investment. They are able to set themselves apart from competitors by
offering clients and investors a full suite of maritime services from
investments, charters and asset management. When it comes to property
investment, the group also has a proven track record of a prudent
investment strategy. Its ALERO line of small residential property projects
have a typicalIRR of >20% with an investment duration of 1-2 years.
With diversification into various classes of alternative investments, the
group is able to enhance shareholder value by providing recurring revenues
from their shipping businesses while delivering high returns in their property
investments. Their vast geographical footprint also allows the group to
weather any concentration risk.
HK Office Investments (Deal Size>HKD$30m)
Baltic Dry Index
HK Private Office Price Index (All Grades)
Japan Residential Property Price Index
Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning
Source: Investing.com
Source: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR Govt
610
1066
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2-Jan-15 2-Jan-16 2-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 2-Jan-19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Source: Colliers International
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
108.00
110.00
112.00
114.00
2015-01-01
2015-04-01
2015-07-01
2015-10-01
2016-01-01
2016-04-01
2016-07-01
2016-10-01
2017-01-01
2017-04-01
2017-07-01
2017-10-01
2018-01-01
2018-04-01
2018-07-01
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Japan Hotel Guest Room Supply By Region, 2018 - 2020
Source: Savills
3
9th Jun 2019
4. Improving Business Fundamentals
UAG’s share price performance has been lackluster for a long time due to
various factors that plagued the shipping industry (e.g. tonnage oversupply)
which has led to significant losses and asset impairments. In spite of this,
UAG’s property and hotel segment has been profitable and is set to grow
further. As such, we think that the market will positively re-rate UAG
should it be able to show continued growth and profitability at the Group
level.
Shipping Segment
UAG’s strategy for its shipping portfolio is to dispose of older bulk carriers
and replace them with new Handysize and Handymax ships. The Group may
also sell older bulk carriers if they cost too much to support. While the
Baltic Dry Index has risen above the 1,000 level from a low of 610 earlier
this year, the escalating US-China trade war is likely to delay the recovery
of the industry as well as charter hire rates. Hence, we are not optimistic
about this segment.
Property and Hotel Segment
Hong Kong Property Projects Provide Earnings Visibility Up Till 2021
In Hong Kong, its second property project, a US$10.4m investment in a
commercial office building, reaped US$10.4m in capital return as well as
an additional US$10.4m in dividend, with further proceeds expected
around 3Q19 as the final two floors of the property was sold after 1Q19.
UAG has since reinvested these proceeds in three other projects. With at
least one project slated for completion each year over the next three
years, earnings visibility is boosted. While such investment returns may be
viewed as non-recurring in nature, management hopes to realize the gain
and cash flow from such investments annually.
War Chest Ready To Expand ALERO
In Japan, UAG’s ALERO projects has been consistently generating more
than 20% IRR. Such projects, which requires US$3m-5m each, take less than
2 years from start of investment to completion of sale. On average, the
Group can complete 7 to 8 projects a year. Given the robust Tokyo
residential market, UAG is looking to complete more ALERO projects and is
also exploring various property asset management opportunities in Japan to
expand a new income source. The recent S$5.4m private placement
completed in Apr 2019 places UAG in a good position to take on more
projects.
Hotel Management Business To Grow 33% By 2020
As for Vista, the Group’s expanding hotel management business in Japan
adds another stream of recurring income. UAG will be managing 3,401
rooms by 2020 (1Q19: 2,515 rooms) which translates to a 35% increase from
the current base. In addition, this segment stands to be a beneficiary of
Japan’s 10-day imperial succession Golden Week holiday, the 2019 Rugby
World Cup and Tokyo 2020 Olympics which should drive hotel occupancy
and rates higher.
Hong Kong Property Projects
Source: 1Q19 Results Presentation
Investment Thesis #1
4
Hotels To Be Added In The Portfolio In 2019 and 2020
Name of Hotel Location Number of Rooms Scheduled Opening
Hotel Vista Fukuo Nakasu-Kawabata Fukuoka 204 2019
Hotel Vista Osaka Namba Osaka 121 2020
Hotel Vista Premio Osaka Hommachi Osaka 272 2020
Hotel Vista Tokyo Tsukiji Tokyo 149 2020
Hotel Vista Matsuyama (tentative name) Matasuyama 140 2020
886
CurrentPortfolio as at 1Q19 2,515
Expected2020 Portfolio 3,401 (+35%)
2nd Project: Commercial Office Building
Investment US$10.4m, 13.4% effective ownership
Start 2014
Completion 2018
Proceeds US$10.4m capital& US$10.4m
dividend received in 2018
3rd Project: Commercial Office Building
Investment US$6.4m, 11.9% effective ownership
Start 2016
Completion Mid-2019
4th Project: Commercial Office Building
Investment US$2.6m, 2.5% effective ownership
Start 2018
Completion 2020
5th Project: Commercial Office Building
Investment US$5.3m, 7.5% effective ownership
Start 2018
Completion 2021
6th Project: Commercial Office Building
Investment US$6.2m, 3.825% effective ownership
Start 2018
Completion 2021
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
UAG Shipping Average Charter Hire Rate Per Day
11,217
9,751
10,622
9,776
10,025
9,144
9,742
9,496
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19
US$/day
9th Jun 2019
5. 2-year P/B Graph
Attractive Asset & Yield Play
Trading AtMulti-year Low P/B Valuations
UAG is currently trading at multi-year low P/B of 0.36x despite improving
fundamentals and numerous impairments already made on its maritime
investments. To put things in perspective, the trough trailing P/B of the
maritime & offshore sector acrossa 10 year historicalperiod is 0.6x.
Since 2010, UAG’s shipping portfolio has been negatively affected by the
industry headwinds, and the Group has made impairments on its ship
portfolio every year which has led to valuation losses. Moving forward, any
further downward valuation loss would be limited given that the Group’s
shipping portfolio is already fairly low. More specifically, UAG’s
containership investments had been completely written off and there
would not be any further fair valuation losses fromthese investments.
While maritime investments represent a large part (57.4%) of UAG’s total
assets of US$334.2m, this allocation is expected to decline overtime given
the Group’s increased focus in the property investment and hotel
segments. Continued success in those segments should enable UAG to re-
rate higher.
Dividend Policy
In Apr 2019, the board adopted a dividend policy of paying dividends of not
less than 35% and 40% profit for FY19 and FY20 respectively. Management
noted that profit refers to profit from the Group’s ordinary course of
business including fair value and realized gain/loss for investments. It will
also start paying dividends on a semi-annual basis from 2Q19 onwards. The
increased frequency in dividend payout serves as a plus point for income-
seeking investors.
Dividend Yield One Of The Highest Amongst SGX-listed Property
Developers andShippingPeers
At S$0.775 per share, UAG is currently providing a dividend yield of 6.0%,
assuming the Group maintains the same levels of dividends paid out for
FY18. We think this is highly likely given that the Group’s 3rd HK property
project is slated to be completed in mid-2019.
This places UAG as one of the highest yielding comparable property
developer and/or shipping company listed on the SGX.
Investment Thesis #2
5
0.30x
0.34x
0.38x
0.42x
0.46x
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2016 & 2018
Total Assets Allocation (%)
Dividend Per Share (S$ cents)
4.2 4.2
2.0
4.2
4.7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Dividend Yields of UAG and Comparable SGX-listed Property Developers and Shipping Companies
6.0% 5.9%
5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6%
3.9%
3.4%
Uni-Asia Chip Eng
Seng
Hock Lian
Seng
Keong Hong Far East
Orchard
KSH Lian Beng Samudera
Shipping
Wee Hur Ho Bee Land
2015 2016 2017 2018
Maritime 71.5 69.4 59.8 57.4
Property 12.6 13.9 22.3 21.0
Cash 11.6 12.2 12.0 14.0
Others 4.3 4.5 5.9 7.6
1.2
1.3
1.9
0.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Median Average Peak Trough
Trail. P/B of Maritime & Offshore Services Sector
Source: SGX, Bloomberg
9th Jun 2019
6. Our take on Uni-Asia Group Ltd
Our valuation of Uni-Asia Group Ltd results in a fair value of S$0.985,
representing a 27.0% upside from the closing price of S$0.775 per share
on June 7th, 2019. Our target price was derived using a Dividend Discount
Model with a target price of S$0.985 as our primary valuation method. We
have also used an SOTP valuation as a sense check for our primary
valuation. Nevertheless, we obtained a similar fair value of S$0.942
representingan upside of 21.5%.
Our base case expects a slowdown in the recovery of the shipping industry,
with an estimated flat revenue growth from the shipping segment yearly.
However, margins are set to worsen in the short term due to the current
US-China trade war predicament which will delay the recovery of charter
hire rates. Hence, this segment is expected to continue to contribute losses
to the group for the projected period.
The property segment is expected to be the main growth driver for UAG’s
profitability. We foresee strong growth in UAG’s property segment coming
from its property investment (ex-Japan), with UAG reinvesting their
proceeds from previous projects to take on more projects. The recent
S$5.4m private placement completed in Apr 2019 also would provide
additional capital for UAG to further grow their profitable property
segment. We also factored in the consistency of UAG’s property segment
revenue generation in spite of the common view that such revenue streams
are non-recurring in nature.
We forecast the hotel management segment of UAG to record revenue
growth of 12.3% and 23.2% in 2019 and 2020 respectively due to the 2019
Rugby World Cup and Tokyo 2020 Olympics which should drive hotel
occupancy and rates higher. Hence, we factored in an occupancy rate of
85% in 2019 and 2020 compared to an average of 81% over the past three
years.
Estimating the Costof Equity
We applied a discount rate of 7.30% to discount the projected firm's
dividends. The computation of cost of equity is based on the Capital Asset
Pricing Model using the following inputs: a) risk-free rate equals 10-year
Singapore Government bond rate of 2.13% b) Singapore's mature market
equity risk premium of 5.96% c) peer comparables’ raw beta re-levered
using UAG’s current capital structure resulting in a UAG-Beta of 0.74 d) a
country riskpremiumof 1%.
Assumptions on Terminal Growth
In the computation of the terminal growth rate, we used a positive
terminal growth rate of 1.97% which was the plowback ratio of 84.5%
multiplied by the average ROE of 2.3%.
DDM analysis presents an undervaluedvalued share price
DDM analysis reveals an undervalued share price. To assess the spread of
our DDM valuation, we evaluated the sensitivity of our result using a
sensitivity table that varied COE and the terminal growth rate. The most
conservative scenario indicates a downside of -4.5%. The most optimistic
scenario results in an upside of 97.4%. These results reinforce our positive
view of the mispricing of UAG by the market.
DDM Assumptions
Financial Statement Forecast
Valuation
Source: Team Estimates
Source: Team Estimates
Dividend Discount Model
Source: Team Estimates
Sensitivity Analysis
3rd Jun 2019
6
Source: Team Estimates
7. SOTPvaluation offers further support
We value UAG on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis based on valuation of
its business segments of: 1) Shipping; 2) Property and 3) Hotel
Management. Our resultant fair value after incorporating a 20% holding
company discount is S$0.942 which implies an upside of 21.5%.
Overview of SOTPmethodology
UAG Shipping: We value the Shipping segment at 0.5x P/B, based on a 25%
discount to industry blended forward 12M P/B average of 0.7x, to
determine the market value of this segment.
Property: We value the Property segment at 0.7x P/B based on industry
blended forward 12M P/B average to attain the implied equity value of this
segment.
Hotel Management: We value the Hotel management segment at 19x P/E,
a steep 50% discount to industry blended forward 12M P/E average of
38.0x. We believe this segment is trading at a discounted multiple due to
inferior margins compared to itslarger hotelmanagement peers.
Blue-grey sky scenarios
We performed a scenario analysis on the primary variables of the model in
order to derive the bull and bear scenario cases.
Our bull case takes into account a slight recovery of the shipping segment
with an average YoY revenue growth of 2% and improved margins due to
possible recovery of the charter hire rates. We also project a higher
occupancy rate post-FY20 for the hotel segment at 83%, resulting in a
stronger topline growth for the hotel segment. Our bull case results in a
fair value target of S$1.20 per share, representing an upside of 54.8%.
Our bear case projects a further delay in the possible recovery of the
shipping segment with charter income expected to decline 4% YoY
following low charter hire rates. d margins due to possible recovery of the
charter hire rates. We also project weaker growth for the property
segment in Japan and ex-Japan. Our bear case results in a fair value target
of S$0.62 per share, representingan downside of 20%.
Football Field Analysis
To conclude our valuation, we conducted a football field analysis providing
a sense-check to our various valuation methods. Our analysis revealed that
our DDM-based fair value of S$0.98 intersects the ranges of the team’s
SOTP valuation and exceeds the 52 week range.
Football Field Analysis
Valuation
S$0.985S$0.775
Sum-of-the-parts Valuation
Source: Team Estimates
Source: Team Estimates
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Scenario Analysis
Source: Team Estimates
$1.20
$0.98
$0.62
7
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
SOTP
Dividend Discount Model
52 W High / Low
Adj Low Adj Avg/Median Adj High Target Price Current Price
9th Jun 2019
8. Uni-Asia Trading Volume (million shares)
Baltic Dry Index
UAG Net Debt (USD$ millions) and Gearing Ratio
Key Investment Risks and Catalysts
Investment Risks
(1) Cyclicality of Core Businesses
Both the shipping and property business segments are cyclical in nature and
are subject to the fluctuationsin the global economy.
Shipping – The charter of vessels is largely dependent on the demand for
the shipped goods. As such, any volatility in demand for dry bulk goods
would have implications on charter demand and rates. In the 2nd half of
2018, the Sino-US trade war escalated, resulting in US and China imposing
tariffs on over $300 billion worth of goods. The US has also threatened to
impose tariffs on another $325 billion worth of goods. Such tariffs would
impede trade on the long-haul US- China shipping route, which would
severely reduce vessel demand. This would negatively impact revenues and
profitability of UAG’s Shipping business.
Property – The real estate market in Hong Kong is being adversely
impacted by global economic uncertainty caused by the US-China trade
tensions. According to CBRE, Hong Kong’s investment activity is negatively
affected by economic deleveraging. A Colliers survey has also noted that
investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to big-ticket deals in the
commercial property space. As such, UAG would need to err on the side of
caution with regards to their Hong Kong Property Investments as they might
face difficulty in obtaining a high return on investment in current market
conditions.
(2) High Gearing
UAG’s net gearing (defined as net debt divided by total equity by the
company) has hovered at over 100% the past few years. In FY2018, gearing
dipped below 100% due to parring down of long-term debt. A high gearing
ratio would present high interest rate risks. UAG’s borrowings at variable
rates are currently denominated in USD and JPY. Hence, UAG would be
negatively affected should interest ratesrise in the US and Japan.
(3) Foreign Exchange Risks
UAG operates on a global scale and hence exposes itself to foreign
exchange risks. UAG’s main functional currency for invoices is the USD. It
also maintains JPY denominated debt and has operational expenses in JPY
and HKD. While UAG would benefit from the USD strengthening against the
JPY, it would incur foreign exchange losses with a weakening USD.
Investment Catalysts
(1) Bonus Issue To Boost TradingLiquidity
Over the years, the trading volume of UAG shares has been on the decline,
with 8 million shares exchanging hands in 2018. The directors have
recognized this issue and have sought to counter it. On 15 May 2019, UAG
proposed a bonus issue on their 52.4million shares. The issue structure
would be on the basis of 1 Bonus Share for every 2 existing ordinary shares
in the capital of the company held by shareholders of the company. This
would bring the total number of shares outstanding to 78.6million. The
bonus issue should bring about higher liquidity in the trading of UAG shares
and help reduce any market inefficiencies. This would also serve to narrow
the gap between current prices and UAG’s fair value. The bonus shares are
expected to be listed on the Singapore Exchange by 11 June 2019.
(2) Progressionin US Trade Talks
As much as the current trade tensions create uncertainty in the global
economic outlook, any progression in trade talks would clear the fog on the
road ahead. For instance, as the hope of a trade deal became more
apparent in the 1st quarter of 2019, the Baltic Dry Index began a healthy
recovery from its trough. As such, any progression in the US trade deals
involving China and Japan respectively would bode well for the business
climate in the region. This might provide more clarity and confidence in
UAG’s shipping and property investment businesses.
(3) Boost in Tourist Arrivals in Japan
Japan’s hospitality sector would be boosted by 2 major sporting events: the
2019 Rugby World Cup and the 2020 Olympics. Over 2 million ticket
applications for the Rugby World Cup were processed during the first
application period, with 40% attributable to foreign demand. This robust
demand is expected to roll over to the 2020 Olympics ticket sales. Savills
also expects Tokyo to have a shortage of hotel rooms for the 2020
Olympics. This would keep the Japanese hospitality industry buoyant,
which should translate into higher revenuesfor Vista HotelManagement.
Japan Major Sporting Events
Source: CAPIQ
Source: Shareinvestor
Source: Investing.com
1747
610
1066
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2-Jan-15 2-Jan-16 2-Jan-17 2-Jan-18 2-Jan-19
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2016 2017 2018
Net Debt Gearing Ratio
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sep – Nov 2019 Rugby World Cup
Jul – Aug 2020 2020 Olympics
8
9th Jun 2019
11. 11
Management TeamAppendix 3
Designation Name Information
Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer
Michio Tanamoto ▪ Appointed as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Uni-Asia
Holdings Limited in April 2014 and concurrently Chairman of Management
Committee and Reviewing Committee.
▪ One of the founders who established the Company in 1997 and has been a
Director since then. He has over 36 yearsof experience in financial
sector based in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Senior Managing
Director
Zac K. Hoshino ▪ Appointed as Senior Managing Director of the Company on 1 March 2019
and currently is CEO of Uni Asia Shipping Limited, Wealth Ocean Ship
Management Shanghai and Uni Ships and Management Limited.
▪ He has extensive experience with chartering, operating, and contracting
in Japanese shipping company for more than 20 years including Singapore
and Hong Kong representative between 2002and 2007.
Group Chief Financial
Officer
Lim Kai Ching ▪ Joined Uni-Asia in June 2011 and was appointed as Chief FinancialOfficer
of the group in August 2011 and subsequently as Group Chief Financial
Officer on 5 January 2015.
▪ Mr Lim has over 20 years of experience in areas including finance,
accounting, riskmanagement, investment, audit and investor relations.
President of Vista
Hotel Management
Katsuro Ouchi ▪ Appointed as President of Vista HotelManagement in October 2009 and is
currently responsible for hoteloperation business in Japan.
▪ Mr. Ouchi has over 40 yearsof experience in the financialsector.
Managing Director and
Head of Maritime
Asset Management
Matthew Yuen Wai
Keung
▪ Joined Uni-Asia in October 1997. He is currently ManagingDirector and
the Head of Maritime Asset Management Department.
▪ Prior to this, Mr Yuen worked in severalinternationalbanks, specializing
in corporate banking and syndications.
Executive Vice
President and
Co-Head of Maritime
Asset Management
Department
Makoto Tokozume ▪ Joined in January 2008 and was appointed as Co-Head of Maritime Asset
Management effective on 1 April 2019.
▪ He has over 30 years workingexperience in financialindustryin Japan,
Singapore and Hong Kong.
Managing Director of
Vista Hotel
Management
Masayuki Sato ▪ Joined the Group in 2007 and was appointed a Managing Director of Vista
Hotel Management in October 2018.
▪ He has vast experiences in aircraft/ship finance, businessdevelopment,
business planning and investor relations.
Director (Business
Development) and
Uni-Asia Capital
(Japan)
Takeshi Iritono ▪ Joined the Group in 2003 and was appointed a Director of Uni-Asia
Capital(Japan), Ltd in December 2011.
▪ He is responsible for real estate assetmanagement and development of
residentialproperties, hotelproperties and commercialproperties
Appendix
Source: Uni-Asia Annual Report 2018
12. 12
Timeline of Recent Key EventsAppendix 4
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
1
2
4
5
3
No. Date Event
1 27 Apr 2017 1Q17 profits bounced back to US$2.1m
2 15 Nov 2017 Reports weak 3Q17 profits of $0.2m
3 02 Mar 2018 Achieved a strong recovery with net profit of US$8.9m for FY17
4 15 May 2018 Extends strong performance and reports 50% increase in net profit to US$3.3m in 1Q18
5 10 Aug 2018 Reports 15% increase in net profit to US$6.3 million in 1H18
6 08 Nov 2018 Reports 9% increase in 9M18 net profit to US$6.2m
7 1 Mar 2019 Reports 19% increase in total income to US$123.3m in FY18 but lower profits in FY18 due to
write-off of containership investments
8 04 Apr 2019 Raises S$5.4m through placement of new share to investors at S$1.08 per share
9 15 May 2019 Reports 10% increase in 1Q19 net profit to US$3.7m
10 31 May 2019 Ex Date 1-for-2 Bonus Issue
Appendix
6 7
8
9
1
0