In July 2016, global equity markets, buoyed by strong liquidity, saw the S&P 500 reach a new high while Indian markets also performed well despite mixed corporate earnings. The monsoon brought optimism for economic growth, with expectations of improved performance in the consumer sector in the latter half of the financial year due to government initiatives and foreign investment. The GST bill is anticipated to pass, which could further enhance economic reforms and investor sentiment in the Indian market.

1. ADVICE FOR THE WISE
August 2016

2. CONTENTS
• From The CEO’s Desk
• Did You Know?
• Domestic Equity Outlook
• Domestic Debt Outlook
• Domestic Debt Strategy
• Global Equity Outlook
• Global Economy Update
• Global Debt Outlook
• Sector Outlook
• Real Estate Outlook
• Commodities
• Foreign Exchange
• What’s Trending.
• Disclaimer

3. FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.

4. Inspite of the tepid corporate performance, global liquidity continues to gush and drive stock markets higher. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
pumped in almost Rs.10,000 Crores in the Indian equity markets in July alone with an additional Rs.7,500 Crores in Debt. Bonds have rallied
significantly as investors seek to lock in at higher yields and benefit from capital gains arising from a possible cut in rates. In an environment of
low global growth, investors are still positive on India and its potential for delivering long-term growth. With the US Fed keeping interest rates
constant and the Japanese government announcing a fresh monetary stimulus of $265 billion, foreign flows looking for attractive returns are
likely to keep the Indian equity markets buoyant for now. Investors could use this opportunity to get out of high beta stocks and underperformers
in their portfolio, and switch to companies with strong balance sheets and visibility in growth. Your PMS and mutual fund manager are likely to
do the same.
This time around, the government and the opposition, both seem to be working together to arrive at a consensus as far as the GST Bill is
concerned. The Bill is likely to be tabled in the Rajya Sabha soon and with the government reaching out to all parties, chances of a positive
outcome on this landmark reform are bright. Looks like “acche din” are here, atleast for the stock markets investors.

5. DID YOU KNOW
China is the top Gold Producing
Country In The World followed by
Australia and Russia in third
Qatar ranks number one on the list
of the top 10 richest nations
because of its high GDP (PPP) per
capita of $140,649
.
Mexico country has highest
external debt. External debt of
Mexico equals $235,990,148,633
.

6. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

7. Equity markets strengthened further on back of global liquidity. To add,
good progress on monsoons brightened the prospects for higher overall
growth. With no major negative news flows on global front, domestic
green shoots encouraged Indian markets to trend higher. The monthly
industrial growth at 1.2% was better against 1.3% contraction during
previous month. Although trade gap widened during June, exports grew
at 1.3%; first gain in 18 months. Improving manufacturing pmi and stable
retail inflation were some of the key positives during the month. Normal
monsoons coupled with manageable inflation could lead to lower
domestic rates in coming quarters. The ongoing quarterly results season
continues to give a mixed picture. However, increasing interest for
Indian equities should keep the global funds active. Superior return
ratios and domestic driven earnings visibility should help Indian equities
out-perform global peers over long run.
As on 25th
July 2016
1 Month Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 28,095 6.41% -0.06%
CNX Nifty 8,635 6.68% 1.34%
BSE Mid Cap 12,400 8.74% 11.23%
BSE Small Cap 12,234 6.85% 4.85%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

8. DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
GOVERNMENT POLICY
One keenly awaits the fate of the key GST bill which would be presented shortly in the ongoing monsoon session of parliament.
Clearance of the same would be considered a victory and further positive push to planned economic reforms.

9. -6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
WPI CPI
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at
1.62% for June, 2016 as compared to 0.79% for the month of
May.
• Food articles inflation increased in the month of June by
8.18%. Vegetables increased by 16.91%. Inflation in the fuel
and power segment was 3.4%, while that of manufactured
products it was 1.17% in June.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
• CPI for the month of June remained flat at 5.77% as
compared to 5.76% in May.
• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.38 percent
(7.2 percent in May).
• The food prices rose by 7.79% compared to downwardly
revised 7.47% in the previous month.
Source – Tradingeconomics

10. IIP
• Industrial output in India rose by 1,2 percent year-on-year in May of
2016, against upwardly revised -1.3% in April 2016.
• Manufacturing rose 0.7%, as against -3.2% in May. Meanwhile, the
mining sector output increased by 1.3% in May 2016
GDP
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth
quarter of the current financial year grew at 7.9% versus a
downwardly revised 7.2% for the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing sector continued to show a robust growth of 9.3%,
whereas agricultural growth rebounded and grew at 2.3%. Mining
sector witnessed a growth coming at 2.2% Y-o-Y.
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
GDP
Source – Tradingeconomics
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
IIP

11. DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK
 The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.25% which is 21 bps
lower than the last months close of 7.43%
 The daily turnover for the notes on the Reserve Bank of India’s
dealing platform reached an unprecedented 1.43 trillion rupees
($21.4 billion) on 28th July. At 921 billion rupees, the daily
average value of securities traded for the month of July was
also an all-time high, and more than double the amount for the
first six months of 2016, as benchmark 10-year bonds capped
their best month since May 2013.
As on 25th
July
2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year Change
Debt Markets
10-Yr G-Sec-
Yield
7.25 (21bps) (58bps)
Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)
Source – Reuters
0
100
200
300
400
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Corporate Bond Spreads
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80 G-Sec
10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield

12. DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY
SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can
look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s
YTMs have fallen to sub-9%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-11%) providing
interesting investment opportunities.
CORPORATE BOND
FUNDS
The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the
credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be
attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favourable.
The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of
yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating
will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt
and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after
studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want
to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond
funds.
LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global
commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their
investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.

13. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

14. As on 25th
July 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
MSCI World 1703 6.55% -2.38%
Hang Seng 21993 8.73% -12.48%
S&P 500 2168 8.39% 4.27%
Nikkei 16620 8.56% -19.10%
GLOBAL INDICES
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei

15. GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
On the global front; US Fed in line with expectations once again kept the interest rates unchanged. It is believed that near term risks to economic
outlook have diminished. Thus probability of rate hike in September remains alive.

16. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
UNITED STATES  U.S. economic growth unexpectedly remained tepid in the second quarter as inventories fell for the first
time in nearly five years and business investment weakened further, offsetting robust consumer spending.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate after rising by a downwardly revised 0.8
percent pace in the first quarter.
 U.S. home resales hit their highest level in nearly 9-1/2 years in June as low interest rates lured first-time
buyers into the market and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week,
underscoring the economy's strength.
JAPAN
 The Bank of Japan's review of its monetary stimulus programme promised for September has revived
expectations it could adopt some form of "helicopter money", printing money for government spending to
spur inflation..
 The Bank of Japan expanded stimulus by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to
pressure from the government and financial markets for bolder action, but disappointing investors who had
set their hearts on more audacious measures.
Source – Reuters

17. GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
EUROPE  Shockwaves from Britain's vote to leave the European Union are reverberating through the economy with
surveys showing a sharp dive in consumer confidence and a slowdown in the construction sector. An
index of consumer confidence plunged nearly five points to 106.6 in July - matching a fall seen in October
2014 - to touch its lowest level in a monthly survey in three years.
 Greece approved a further relaxation of its capital restrictions as it makes headway on bailout-mandated
reforms and confidence in its banking system returns. Athens imposed capital controls last summer when
it was embroiled in acrimonious bailout talks with its international lenders and almost toppled out of the
euro zone. It has gradually eased the controls since then.
EMERGING
ECONOMIES
 Indian factory activity grew at its fastest pace in four months in July as export orders jumped, but prices
remained muted, giving room to the central bank to ease policy further if needed. The Nikkei/Markit
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.8 in July from June's 51.7, marking its seventh
month above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.
 Activity in China's manufacturing sector eased unexpectedly in July as orders cooled and flooding
disrupted business, according to official survey, adding to fears the economy will slow in coming months
unless the government steps up a huge spending spree.
Source – Reuters

18. GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK
 Brazil is looking to return to the global bond market with a 30 year
bond offering, according to a preliminary filing with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission.
 China is pushing for a landmark offering of bonds denominated in
Special Drawing Rights, the International Monetary Fund's synthetic
reserve currency, ahead of the renminbi's official entry into the SDR
basket in October.
 Iran is exploring a return to international debt markets for the first
time since 2002, as the Islamic Republic seeks to finance an
economic recovery a year after a historic nuclear deal that offered it
a route out of isolation..
Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield
1 Month
Change
AAA
Germany -0.10% 3 bps
Hong Kong 0.94% (6 bps)
Sweden 0.11% (19 bps)
Switzerland -0.56% 1 bps
AA+ USA 1.49% 7 bps
AA-
China 2.80% (9 bps)
Japan -0.14% 12 bps
Source – Reuters

19. SECTOR OUTLOOK

20. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Automobiles
Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base
effect and normal monsoons.
Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.
FMCG
We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,
as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in
raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.
E&C
Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.
Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.
BFSI
Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on
higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.

21. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
IT/ITES
Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume
growth in the EU regions
Power Utilities
Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in
near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.
Cement
Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back
in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.
Healthcare
Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth
continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.

22. SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Energy
Crude prices at 6 month high, though prices have corrected by 15% in past one month and substantially lower on annual
basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue.
Telecom
Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal
returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications.
Metals
Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months
with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.

23. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

24. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted
restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry
of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to
receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have
remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I
markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in
demand with sluggish market sentiments.
With improvements in infrastructure across cities like
Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being
offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for
choice. The Demand drivers have increased
nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier
availability of credit.
RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II

25. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong
demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai
has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital
values have also been on rise in major markets except in
NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption
volumes have been surpassing new completions
consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the
vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.
Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease
rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at
their current levels in the commercial asset class.
COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II

26. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls
continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,
premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing
activity. International brands were seen increasing their
footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in
demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai
remained stagnant.
The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street
retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
rentals have remained stagnant in this space.
RETAIL Tier I Tier II

27. REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities
and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in
purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower
ticket size and better marketing by developers
/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for
warehousing with the growth of E commerce.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
due to low investment base in such areas.
LAND Tier I Tier II

28. COMMODITIES
GOLD
Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global
uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300.
Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could
strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400.
• As on 25th July, 2016 : 30,688 per 10gm
• 1 month change : -1.79%
• 1 year change : 22.99%
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
Gold

29. COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices, after gaining smartly over past two quarters,
finally corrected. Global pressure and slowdown led to around
15% correction. Crude prices are likely to remain under
pressure over medium term.
• As on 25th July, 2016 : $43.76 per bbl
• 1 month change : -2.90%
• 1 year change : -19.40%
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
Crude

30. Currency
As on 25th
July 2015
1 Month Change 1 Year Change
USD/INR 67.24 -0.97% -4.82%
GBP/INR 88.35 -2.82% 12.55%
Euro/INR 73.80 -1.44% -4.32%
Yen/INR 63.37 -4.98% -18.18%
USD/Euro 0.91 0.41% 0.11%
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
• China’s foreign exchange reserves rose unexpectedly in
June, but the gains come amid renewed fears of capital
outflows after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
The foreign exchange reserves stood at US$3.21 trillion at
the end of June, up US$13.4 billion from the end of May.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday said it
has penalized 13 banks in response to a foreign exchange
scam that took place in October. This action is based on
deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to
pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or
agreement entered into by the bank and its customers.
• The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.407
billion to $363.351 billion in the week to July 15 on account
of increase in foreign currency assets.
-0.97%
-2.82%
-1.44%
-4.98%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN

31. WHAT’S TRENDING
GST BILL
What is it?
GST is a comprehensive tax levy on manufacture, sale and consumption of goods and services at a national level. GST is a part of proposed tax reforms
in India having an extensive base that instigate the applicability of an efficient and harmonized consumption tax system. GST has been commonly
accepted by world and more than 140 countries have acknowledged the same. Generally the GST ranges between 15%- 20% in most of the countries.
Benefits of GST
• Speeds up economic union of India
• Better compliance and revenue buoyancy Replacing the cascading effect [tax on tax] created by existing indirect taxes Tax incidence for consumers
may fall Lower transaction cost for final consumers
• By merging all levies on goods and services into one, GST acquires a very simple and transparent character
• Uniformity in tax regime with only one or two tax rates across the supply chain as against multiple tax structure as of present
• Increased tax collections due to wide coverage of goods and services
• Improvement in cost competitiveness of goods and services in the international market
Disadvantages of GST
• Critics say that GST would impact negatively on the real estate market. It would add up to 8 percent to the cost of new homes and reduce demand
by about 12 percent.
Source – www.ey.com, www.wikipedia.com, www.taxguru.com

32. DISCLAIMER
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