Geneva Declaration Review Conference 2011 Geneva, Switzerland, 1 November 2011 Crime Trends in Europe: The role of firearm...
Introduction <ul><li>Is there a general crime drop in Western Europe? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Police statistics and victisat...
Sources <ul><li>Police statistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics </li>...
Methodology <ul><li>Police statistics: complete series 1990-2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Conviction statistics: complete series ...
Measures <ul><li>Prevalence of victimisation (percentage of the total number of households participating in the survey tha...
Available data <ul><li>The 5 measures are available for 6 countries: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>England & Wales, Finland, Franc...
Results
Homicide (completed and attempted) 8 countries compared to 14-15 countries
Completed homicide in 15 and 9 countries
Assault (9, 9, 14, 8 and 14 countries)
Robbery (9, 9, 15, 10 and 12 countries)
Explanations
Explanations <ul><li>Artefact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in reporting rates of offences? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fact <...
Increase in reporting rates of offences?
Reporting rates of robbery and assault/threats in 9 countries
Incrase of non-lethal violence?
SUVA statistics  ( Schweizerische Unfallversicherungsanstalt)   <ul><li>Switzerland’s most important carrier of compulsory...
Assault according to SUVA and Swiss police statistics
Overview <ul><li>Western European similarities in crime trends </li></ul><ul><li>No general crime drop </li></ul><ul><li>I...
 
Homicides and homicides with firearms
Homicide context
A multifactor explanation of crime trends
Thank you for your attention [email_address] [email_address]  /  [email_address]
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Marcelo Aebi - University of Lausanne

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Marcelo Aebi - University of Lausanne

  1. 1. Geneva Declaration Review Conference 2011 Geneva, Switzerland, 1 November 2011 Crime Trends in Europe: The role of firearms, femicides, and routine activities Marcelo F. Aebi & Antonia Linde
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Is there a general crime drop in Western Europe? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Police statistics and victisation surveys: No (Aebi & Linde 2010) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conviction statistics: No (Aebi & Linde, forthcoming in 2012) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>If some violent offences are increasing, does it reflect a real increase (fact) or a bias in crime measures (artefact)? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Sources <ul><li>Police statistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eurostat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>United Nations Surveys on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (UNCTS) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conviction statistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Victimisation surveys </li></ul><ul><ul><li>International Crime Victim Survey (ICVS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National surveys </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Methodology <ul><li>Police statistics: complete series 1990-2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Conviction statistics: complete series 1990-2006 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interpolation: up to three consecutive years of missing data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extrapolation: first or last year of the series (if necessary) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ICVS: Countries that participated in at least 4 of the five waves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interpolation of the missing year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extrapolation if the missing year is the first of the series (Sweden) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Geometric mean as a measure of central tendency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduces the weight of outliers </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Measures <ul><li>Prevalence of victimisation (percentage of the total number of households participating in the survey that have been victimised) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Victimisation surveys </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Incidence of victimisation (incidents per 100 population) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Victimisation surveys </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Police recorded offences per 100,000 population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Police statistics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Offenders known to the police offences per 100,000 population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Police statistics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Persons convicted offences per 100,000 population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conviction statistics </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Available data <ul><li>The 5 measures are available for 6 countries: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>England & Wales, Finland, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ICVS available for 9 countries: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Belgium, England & Wales, Finland, France, Northern Ireland, Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Police statistics on offences/offenders available for up to 15 countries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Austria, Denmark, England & Wales, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Irland, Northern Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Court statistics available for up to 15 countries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Belgium and Portugal have series for some offences, but Denmark and Ireland do not provide data </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Results
  8. 8. Homicide (completed and attempted) 8 countries compared to 14-15 countries
  9. 9. Completed homicide in 15 and 9 countries
  10. 10. Assault (9, 9, 14, 8 and 14 countries)
  11. 11. Robbery (9, 9, 15, 10 and 12 countries)
  12. 12. Explanations
  13. 13. Explanations <ul><li>Artefact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in reporting rates of offences? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase of non lethal-violence? </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Increase in reporting rates of offences?
  15. 15. Reporting rates of robbery and assault/threats in 9 countries
  16. 16. Incrase of non-lethal violence?
  17. 17. SUVA statistics ( Schweizerische Unfallversicherungsanstalt) <ul><li>Switzerland’s most important carrier of compulsory accident insurance as stipulated by law (founded in 1918). </li></ul><ul><li>Over fifty percent of the Swiss working population is insured with Suva against the consequences of occupational and non-occupational accidents as well as occupational diseases. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Assault according to SUVA and Swiss police statistics
  19. 19. Overview <ul><li>Western European similarities in crime trends </li></ul><ul><li>No general crime drop </li></ul><ul><li>Increase of some types of non-lethal violence (assault) </li></ul><ul><li>Which is the relationship between assault and homicide? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Role of femicide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Role of firearms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Influence of routine activities </li></ul></ul>
  20. 21. Homicides and homicides with firearms
  21. 22. Homicide context
  22. 23. A multifactor explanation of crime trends
  23. 24. Thank you for your attention [email_address] [email_address] / [email_address]

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