KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010

Capital Markets Research
Dec 7, 2010
Thai Stock Market Dec 03 Change US Market Dec 06 Change
SET Index 1034.06 +2.09 Dow Jones 11,362.19 -19.90
Market Turnover (Bt mn) 39,668.88 -9,753.76 Nasdaq 2,594.92 +3.46
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +1,158.36 -1,852.19 S&P 500 1,223.12 -1.59
Thai Bond Market Dec 03 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 2.93 -8 bp
Total Return Index 202.54 -0.12 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.43 -5 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) 844,853.00 -570,743.00 NYMEX crude ($/b) 89.38 +0.19
Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr
Dec 03 (%) 1.82 1.90 1.99 2.16 2.47 2.76 3.10 3.36 3.60 3.74 3.81 3.92
Change (bp) -2.4 -2.7 -3.2 -0.5 -2.3 -1.5 +1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -1.5 +0.9
Interbank Rates Dec 07 Dec 02 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr
Overnight (%) 2.00 1.700-1.970 Dec 03 2.01375 2.03875 2.08672 2.13688 2.21250 2.26250 2.35563
Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Dec 03 2.00000 2.00000 - - Dec 06 0.27110 0.30900 0.46900
THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Dec 03 1.07971 1.15069 1.18732 1.43272 1.64418 1.80537 Dec 06 0.26500 0.30344 0.45969
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr
Dec 07 Bid/Ask 1.66/1.71 2.14/2.17 2.46/2.51 2.74/2.79 2.95/3.00 3.28/3.33 3.57/3.64
KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import
USD 29.78 29.88 30.13 0.65/4.14
EUR 39.5075 39.6400 40.1538 0.11/3.66
GBP 46.7075 46.8650 47.4388 0.43/3.75
JPY 0.3588 0.3600 0.3666 0.92/6.09
KBank Technical Analysis Dec 07 Dec 06 Support Resistance Trend Strategy
THB (Onshore) 29.99 29.95 30.07 Sideway Sell USD near resistance
JPY 82.36 82.64 82.20 83.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD 1.3325 1.3305 1.3220 1.3340 Sideway Sell EUR near resistance

Macro and Market Outlook
• Global stocks ended little changed on Monday after the big figure – non-farm payrolls –
disappointed last Friday
• U.S. ISM non-manufaturing data and Euroean PMI data showed support for economic recovery
on Friday
• The prospects of more Q.E. from Bernanke’s comments helped boost gold price to a high of
$1,423.75 on Monday

FX Market Wrap-up
• EUR/USD fell from 1.339 on Friday to 1.330 on Monday as investors priced in greater risks
involved in the cooperation between the EU- members with regards to debt problems
• USD/THB continued to trade in range above 30.00 on Friday but the pressure in on the down
side as 1) the expectation of policy rate hike increased, 2) foreigners may be building up
position in Asian stocks again, 3) gold price has hit a new high, which may boost gold exports

Economic News Update
• President Barack Obama said he’ll agree to a two-year extension of all Bush-era tax cuts in
exchange for extending federal unemployment insurance. The plan also would cut the payroll
tax by 2 percentage points for one year

Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate
movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours

1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

KBank Daily Update Dec 7, 2010

Nevertheless, data on general economic activities
Macro and Market Outlook remained rather well-anchored. The ISM non-
Global stocks ended little changed on Monday manufacturing index, also released last Friday, rose from
after the big figure – non-farm payrolls – were 54.3 to 55.0 in November, slightly more positive than what
was expected in the market.
released on Friday. The next focus would be whether
the U.S. government would extend both the unemployment Meanwhile, purchasing manager index (service sector)
benefits and Bush-era tax cuts. At the same time, Europe’s from the eurozone were also positive but the long-term
debt problem is an ongoing issue that also deserve debt problem remained a key factor for the volatile euro
constant monitoring. trade recently and going forward.
'000 US Non-farm payrolls %
600 11
400 10 US Treasuries and Thai rates
200 9
Treasuries dropped, following the biggest gain in
0 8
almost three weeks, after U.S. President Barack Obama
-200 7
said he’ll agree to a two-year extension of all Bush-era
-400 6
tax cuts.
-600 5
-800 4 Longer-maturity debt led the decline as Obama’s plan
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 would also see the payroll tax cut by 2 percentage points,
Non-farm payrolls Unemployment rate helping support the recovery and reduce demand for the
safety of debt. Treasuries also fell before reports this week
The November U.S. non-farm payrolls disappointed, that economists said will show fewer Americans filed claims
increasing by a mere 39,000 jobs compared to the previous for unemployment benefits and consumer confidence rose.
month’s expectation of 172k and the market’s expectation The yield on the benchmark 10-year note climbed three
of a 150k increase. At the same time, unemployment rate basis points to 2.95 percent as of 11:09 a.m. in Tokyo,
rose from 9.6% to 9.8%, increasing the concerns that the according to BGCantor Market Data. (Source: Bloomberg)
QE2.0 may not be sufficient.
% %
Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave
3.6 0.9
comments on a TV program “60 minutes” that he did not 3.4 0.8
think the U.S. economy would undergo a double-dip 3.2 0.7
recession and the housing market is not likely to get any 3.0
0.6
worse. However, there are risks that the Fed would 2.8
0.5
eventually have to extend its QE2.0 budget from the initially 2.6
announced $600bn if impacts on the economy are 2.4 0.4

assessed to be insufficient. He also added that the U.S. 2.2 0.3

may need about 5 years’ time to reduce its unemployment 2.0 0.2
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10
rate to more normal levels near 5-6%.
10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis) 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis)
$/ounce $/barrel

1500 95
1400 90
85
Thai interest rate: IRS yields fell slightly this morning after
1300
80
the market re-priced rates upwards following the policy rate
1200 hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, large banks had
75
1100
70
announced interest rate increases for both the lending
1000 65
rates and the deposit rates last Friday. Given that the
900 60
inflation rate had decelerated from 3.0% in October to 2.8%
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
in both November and December, these moves helped to
reduce the gap between the nominal interest rates and the
Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS)
real interest rates, which is one of the outcomes the central
bank was looking for.
His comments may have been what the market already
knew. However, the prospects of more Q.E. did boost gold At the moment, we maintain our outlook for the repo rate
price to a high of $1,423.75 on Monday. for the year 2011 as follows: 2.50% by end H1/2011 and
steady at 2.50% at end-year 2011.
50 indicates expansion
65 % IRS yield curve change bp
60 4.5 5
55 4.0
3.5 0
50
3.0
45 -5
2.5
40 2.0
-10
1.5
35
1.0 -15
30 0.5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 0.0 -20
0.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 yrs
ISM Non-Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing
Spread (left axis) 07/12/2010 03/12/2010

2


FX Wrap Currency Movement
Mon 06-Dec-10 Fri 03-Dec-10 % Change
1.54
1.50 USD/THB - 30.02 -
1.46 USD/JPY 82.66 82.61 +0.06
1.42
1.38 EUR/USD 1.330 1.339 -0.68
1.34 GBP/USD 1.5710 1.5767 -0.36
1.30
USD/CHF 0.9817 0.9746 +0.73
1.26
1.22 USD/SGD 1.3040 1.3030 +0.08
1.18 USD/TWD 30.14 30.30 -0.53
Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10
USD/KRW 1,137.2 1,139.0 -0.16
EUR/USD
USD/PHP 43.76 43.75 +0.02
USD/IDR 9,010 9,000 +0.11
EUR/USD fell from 1.339 on Friday to 1.330 on Monday
as investors priced in greater risks involved in the USD/MYR 3.143 3.146 -0.10
cooperation between the EU- members with regards to USD/CNY 6.648 6.663 -0.22
debt problems. Today, the 27-member EU will cast votes Source: Reuters
and make official the financial aid package for Ireland. .FX Consensus Forecast
However, Irish parliament must pass its 2011 budget plan
Spot Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011
prior to receiving such aids.
USD/THB 30.01 29.00 28.30 28.00
38.00 79 USD/JPY 82.44 82.00 86.00 90.00
80
37.50
81
EUR/USD 1.33 1.37 1.36 1.32
37.00 82 GBP/USD 1.57 1.61 1.61 1.60
83
36.50
84 USD/CNY 6.65 6.60 6.45 6.28
36.00 85
86 USD/SGD 1.31 1.30 1.28 1.26
35.50
87
USD/IDR 9,008 8,900 8,850 8,700
35.00 88
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 USD/MYR 3.14 3.07 3.00 2.98
JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 43.77 43.00 42.30 41.50
USD/KRW 1,136 1,100 1,083 1,045
USD/JPY was little changed at 82.66, pending on
USD/TWD 30.14 30.50 29.95 29.45
changes in the market’s expectations of Japanese’s
exports’ performance going forward and the difference in AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.98
yields of the U.S. and Japanese government bonds. NZD/USD 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.77
Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB

Currency Pair Targets
31.40
31.20 Spot Dec 2010
31.00
30.80
USD/THB 30.01 29.00
30.60 EUR/THB 39.93 38.30
30.40
30.20 JPY/THB 36.38 33.90
30.00
GBP/THB 47.14 45.20
29.80
29.60 CNY/THB 4.51 4.40
1-Sep 11-Sep 21-Sep 1-Oct 11-Oct 21-Oct 31-Oct 10-Nov 20-Nov 30-Nov
AUD/THB 29.66 26.70
USD/THB
CHF/THB 30.58 29.00
Source: KBank, Bloomberg
USD/THB continued to trade in range above 30.00 on
Friday but the pressure in on the down side as 1) the KBank NEER Index
expectation of policy rate hike increased, 2) foreigners may Current 102.43
be building up position in Asian stocks again, 3) gold price
YTD + 10.00%
has hit a new high, which may boost gold exports.
vs 52 weeks ago + 11.67%
vs 1mth ago + 1.33%
vs 1 week ago + 0.55%
vs 1 day ago + 0.01%
vs long term average + 15.31%
Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation

3


Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of Treasury bills and BoT Bonds Dec 03
Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid-
Tenor Amt. Accepted
LB113A 2.18 2.14 2.09 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.92 1.88 1.58 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage
(yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%)
ratio
LB116A 2.76 2.61 2.45 2.29 2.14 1.98 1.82 1.67 1.26
TB11105C 28 1,000 1.884/1.890 1.886000 5.79
LB11NA 3.58 3.25 2.92 2.59 2.26 1.93 1.60 1.27 0.69
TB11309B 91 1,000 1.9280/1.9338 1.930900 5.22
LB123A 4.10 3.67 3.23 2.80 2.37 1.94 1.51 1.07 0.39
TB11608A 182 1,000 1.99/2.05 2.041000 4.29
LB12NA 5.18 4.51 3.83 3.16 2.48 1.81 1.13 0.46 -0.47
LB133A 5.86 5.06 4.26 3.46 2.65 1.85 1.05 0.25 -0.80 CB10D21A 0.04 80,000 1.897/1.930 1.921020 1.25
LB137A 6.30 5.39 4.49 3.58 2.68 1.78 0.87 -0.03 -1.19 Source: ThaiBMA

LB13OA 6.88 5.86 4.84 3.82 2.80 1.78 0.76 -0.26 -1.53 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
LB143A 7.19 6.10 5.01 3.93 2.84 1.75 0.66 -0.42 -1.76 Tenor Amt.
Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark
LB145A 7.78 6.57 5.36 4.15 2.94 1.73 0.52 -0.69 -2.15 (yrs) (Bt mn)
LB145B 7.67 6.49 5.31 4.13 2.95 1.76 0.58 -0.60 -2.03 LB236A 12.84 8,000 08-Dec-10 16-Jun-23 -
LB14DA 8.60 7.20 5.81 4.41 3.01 1.61 0.22 -1.18 -2.82 LB15DA 5.32 14,000 15-Dec-10 11-Dec-15 -
LB155A 9.45 7.86 6.28 4.69 3.11 1.53 -0.06 -1.64 -3.47 LB416A 30.65 3,000 15-Dec-10 14-Jun-41 -
LB157A 9.13 7.63 6.13 4.63 3.13 1.63 0.13 -1.37 -3.12 Source: ThaiBMA
LB15DA 10.32 8.53 6.73 4.94 3.15 1.36 -0.43 -2.22 -4.26
Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
LB167A 10.73 8.85 6.97 5.10 3.22 1.35 -0.53 -2.40 -4.53
Tenor Amt.
LB16NA 11.50 9.45 7.40 5.35 3.31 1.26 -0.79 -2.84 -5.13 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark
(yrs) (Bt mn)
LB171A 11.39 9.38 7.37 5.36 3.36 1.35 -0.66 -2.66 -4.92
CB11N03A 1.00 30,000 14-Dec-10 03-Nov-11 -
LB175A 11.92 9.78 7.65 5.51 3.38 1.24 -0.89 -3.03 -5.41
Source: ThaiBMA
LB183A 13.22 10.78 8.33 5.89 3.44 1.00 -1.44 -3.88 -6.57
LB183B 12.93 10.56 8.18 5.81 3.44 1.07 -1.29 -3.66 -6.28
LB191A 13.68 11.13 8.59 6.04 3.49 0.95 -1.60 -4.14 -6.94
LB196A 14.88 12.03 9.19 6.35 3.50 0.66 -2.18 -5.02 -8.11
LB198A 14.42 11.70 8.98 6.25 3.54 0.82 -1.90 -4.62 -7.58
LB19DA 14.97 12.12 9.28 6.43 3.59 0.74 -2.10 -4.95 -8.04
LB213A 16.11 13.00 9.89 6.78 3.67 0.56 -2.55 -5.66 -9.02
LB214A 15.98 12.91 9.83 6.76 3.69 0.61 -2.46 -5.53 -8.84
LB22NA 18.08 14.51 10.93 7.36 3.78 0.21 -3.36 -6.92 -10.74
LB233A 18.15 14.57 10.98 7.40 3.82 0.24 -3.34 -6.91 -10.73
LB236A 19.59 15.65 11.71 7.76 3.83 -0.11 -4.05 -7.98 -12.16
LB244A 19.72 15.75 11.78 7.82 3.85 -0.11 -4.07 -8.03 -12.24
LB24DA 19.98 15.95 11.92 7.89 3.86 -0.17 -4.19 -8.21 -12.48
LB267A 20.49 16.35 12.21 8.07 3.94 -0.19 -4.32 -8.45 -12.83
LB283A 22.17 17.62 13.06 8.51 3.96 -0.58 -5.13 -9.67 -14.45
LB296A 23.48 18.60 13.73 8.85 3.98 -0.89 -5.75 -10.61 -15.72
LB383A 28.35 22.28 16.21 10.15 4.09 -1.96 -8.01 -14.05 -20.34
LB396A 29.71 23.30 16.90 10.51 4.12 -2.26 -8.64 -15.01 -21.62
Average 12.93 10.52 8.10 5.69 3.28 0.87 -1.54 -3.95 -6.60
Source: KBank, Bloomberg

KBank Rich – Cheap Model
30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

-10.00

-20.00
3 mth avg
Now
-30.00
LB296A
LB113A

LB116A
LB11NA

LB123A

LB133A
LB137A

LB145B

LB14DA
LB155A

LB15DA

LB167A
LB16NA

LB175A

LB183B
LB191A

LB196A

LB198A
LB19DA

LB213A

LB24DA
LB267A

LB283A

LB396A

Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields

4


Economic News Update
Obama Agrees to Extend Tax Cuts for All
for Two Years: President Barack Obama said he’ll
agree to a two-year extension of all Bush-era tax cuts in
exchange for extending federal unemployment insurance.
The plan also would cut the payroll tax by 2 percentage
points for one year.
Obama said he would accept a lower rate for the estate tax
than Democrats wanted in order to break a stalemate over
extending the Bush administration’s tax cuts before
Congress adjourns. The current tax rates, enacted in 2001
and 2003, are set to expire Dec. 31.
Without the compromise, middle-income families would
become “collateral damage for political warfare here in
Washington,” Obama said in televised remarks. He said he
still believes that the nation can’t afford to permanently
extend the top tax rates.
“This compromise is an essential step on the road to
recovery,” Obama said. He criticized Republicans for
insisting on permanent tax cuts for the wealthiest
Americans “regardless of the cost of impact on the deficit.”
Obama spoke in Washington after a White House meeting
with Democratic congressional leaders. They and the
Republican leadership still have to sell the plan to their
caucuses. Obama called it a “framework” for a deal.
Representative Dave Camp of Michigan, who will become
chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means
Committee when Republicans take control of the chamber
in January, welcomed Obama’s announcement.
Lawmakers opposed to extending the tax cuts for the
nation’s top earners criticized the deal.
In addition to keeping the current tax rates for all taxpayers,
the plan outlined by Obama would extend aid for the long-
term unemployed for another 13 months. The payroll tax --
which funds Social Security and Medicare -- would be cut
by 2 percentage points during 2011 to help spur hiring.
The payroll tax cut would apply to all wage-earners, an
administration official told reporters on a conference call.
That would give those who making salaries of more than
$106,800 a maximum of $2,136 in tax savings. The
proposal would cost the government $120 billion, another
administration official said.
The unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 9.8
percent in November as payroll growth slowed to 39,000
from 172,000, according to the Labor Department.
(Source: Bloomberg)

Market Strategists:
Nalin Chutchotitham
Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
Tel: 02-470-3235

5


Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised

12/03/2010 08:00 CH China Non-manufacturing PMI NOV -- 53.2 60.5 --
12/03/2010 09:30 CH China HSBC Services PMI NOV -- 53.1 56.4 --
12/03/2010 12:00 IN India November Markit Services PMI (Table) Apr-23
12/03/2010 13:00 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate Dec-03 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% --
12/03/2010 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Nov-26 -- $15.3B $15.3B --
12/03/2010 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Nov-26 -- $168.2B $170.1B --

12/03/2010 15:20 TA Foreign Exchange Reserves-US$B NOV -- 379.26 383.84 --
12/03/2010 15:24 ID Foreign Reserves NOV -- $92.76B $91.80B --
12/03/2010 15:24 ID Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) NOV -- 800.08T 785.19T --
12/03/2010 15:45 IT PMI Services NOV 51.4 54.5 51 --
12/03/2010 15:50 FR PMI Services NOV F 55.7 55 55.7 --
12/03/2010 15:55 GE PMI Services NOV F 58.6 59.2 58.6 --
12/03/2010 16:00 EC PMI Composite NOV F 55.4 55.5 55.4 --
12/03/2010 16:00 EC PMI Services NOV F 55.2 55.4 55.2 --
12/03/2010 16:30 UK PMI Services NOV 53.2 53 53.2 --
12/03/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) OCT 0.20% 0.50% -0.20% -0.10%
12/03/2010 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) OCT 1.00% 1.80% 1.10% 1.50%
12/03/2010 17:01 MA Exports YoY% OCT -1.40% 1.30% 6.90% 6.90%
12/03/2010 17:01 MA Imports YoY% OCT 5.30% 12.50% 14.60% 14.60%
12/03/2010 17:01 MA Trade Balance OCT 8.00B 6.85B 7.01B --
12/03/2010 17:10 ID Consumer Confidence Index NOV -- 108.1 112 --
12/03/2010 19:00 CA Unemployment Rate NOV 7.90% 7.60% 7.90% --
12/03/2010 20:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls NOV 150K 39K 151K 172K
12/03/2010 20:30 US Change in Private Payrolls NOV 160K 50K 159K 160K
12/03/2010 20:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls NOV 5K -13K -7K -11K
12/03/2010 20:30 US Unemployment Rate NOV 9.60% 9.80% 9.60% --
12/03/2010 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp NOV 0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%
12/03/2010 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp NOV 1.70% 1.60% 1.70% --
12/03/2010 20:30 US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees NOV 34.3 34.3 34.3 --
12/03/2010 22:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite NOV 54.8 55 54.3 --
12/03/2010 22:00 US Factory Orders OCT -1.20% -0.90% 2.10% 3.00%
12/06/2010 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation MoM% NOV -- 0.40% 0.30% --
12/06/2010 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation YoY% NOV -- 3.90% 3.80% --
12/06/2010 07:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) NOV -- 2.90% 0.60% 0.70%
12/06/2010 15:00 TA CPI YoY% NOV 0.90% 1.53% 0.56% --
12/06/2010 15:00 TA WPI YoY% NOV 2.85% 2.43% 3.84% 3.70%
12/06/2010 15:57 UK New Car Registrations (YoY) NOV -- -11.50% -22.20% --
12/06/2010 16:00 MA Foreign Reserves Nov-30 -- $105.80B $105.82B --
12/06/2010 16:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence DEC 11 9.7 14 --
12/06/2010 20:30 CA Building Permits MoM OCT -4.00% -6.50% 15.30% 14.90%
12/06/2010 22:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index NOV 56.4 57.5 56.7 --
Source: Bloomberg

6

KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010

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