AMCF Paris Keynote Sept 2006


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  • [Slide 9] Every S Curve has one or two major themes associated with it. The last S curve started in the late 80s with the advent of a whole new way of working introduced first by the PC and then Networks. It drove a business model shift towards increasing flexibility, as well as a focus onto the real value processes that drive an enterprise. Business Process Re engineering, or BPR, took most of the 90s to come about, because technology to build a truly flexible process structure didn’t exist. Most of the results achieved have been based around improvements in internal productivity through task automation, self-service and sharing data. Today, business is much more complex, yet still able to perform to higher levels of efficiency through the continuing specialization of capabilities from these productivity themes. The new S curve is going to be about achieving similar efficiencies outside the enterprise. The focus will be on improving relationships with the overall market place around the familiar tasks of, selling, buying and managing, all of which are enterprise-centric, as well as new ways of working with others that are market centric; the emerging collaboration and federation models. The new S curve has to some extent started in many businesses, usually with supply chain acting as the first external process. Many of the difficulties that have been encountered in this, or in the building of B2B hubs are due to using the current, or old S curve, technology to solve the new needs. Part of the challenge in jumping from one S curve to the next results from hanging on to plans made during the fast adoption phase of a curve once the specialization and volume periods occur. Businesses are inevitably disappointed that targets aren’t reached – not realizing that they must jump to a new family of technologies to do so. Smart companies re-plan often and jump early so that this expectation gap is minimized.
  • AMCF Paris Keynote Sept 2006

    1. 1. Surfing when the world looks flat Looking at the Shape of Consulting in 2010 John Parkinson Chairman, ParkWood Advisors, LLC November 30, 2005
    2. 2. About John Parkinson <ul><li>30+ years in technology </li></ul><ul><li>20+ years in consulting </li></ul><ul><li>Published author (four books) and columnist (CIO Insight) </li></ul><ul><li>World’s top 25 most influential consultants (2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Retired head of Innovation and Strategy at Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001) </li></ul><ul><li>Retired CTO of Capgemini (July 2005) </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide [email_address] +1 847 235 1791
    3. 3. Copyright notice and disclaimer <ul><li> ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005. All rights reserved. </li></ul><ul><li>Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson, at the address given above. </li></ul><ul><li>This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services. </li></ul><ul><li>If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    4. 4. Today’s agenda <ul><li>Three common concerns and two thoughts from the past </li></ul><ul><li>Some root cause analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Where the market is today and why advisors still matter </li></ul><ul><li>Five issues for profitable growth </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>A manifesto for an agile advisor </li></ul><ul><li>Three ideas for the next five years </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    5. 5. Three common concerns <ul><li>Growth ahead of the market </li></ul><ul><li>Defending and improving margins </li></ul><ul><li>Managing risk </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide How did this happen?
    6. 6. Two thoughts from the past <ul><li>“ Everybody has accepted by now that change is unavoidable. But that still implies that change is like death and taxes it should be postponed as long as possible and no change would be vastly preferable . But in a period of upheaval, such as the one we are living in, change is the norm”. </li></ul><ul><li>“ So much of what we call management consists in making it difficult for people to work”. </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    7. 7. Root cause analysis <ul><li>Too many of our ideas are not strongly correlated to business value </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic advice is often undifferentiated </li></ul><ul><li>Operational advice is becoming a commodity </li></ul><ul><li>We are slow to react to emerging needs </li></ul><ul><li>We are too rooted in the history of Economics 1.0 </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide PROBLEM
    8. 8. Where the market is today © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide Productivity Efficiency Inside the Business Efficiency Along the Value Chain We are here Uncertainty Planning Trajectory Reality Expectation Gap Early adopters shorten the expectation gap by switching curves ahead of the market… We must avoid being trapped between ‘S’ curves as families of enabling ideas and practices evolve Based on work by Geoffrey Moore and Clayton Christiansen Disruptive Innovation 85 95 00 02 05 08
    9. 9. Why advisors remain important © ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide You don't get much advantage from the same ideas and practices everyone else has Where most of the advisor budget gets spent – because that’s where the processes and technology that really runs your business resides Where attention should be focused if you want maximum potential advantage Proprietary Advantage Diminishing advantage Weak advantage
    10. 10. Five issues for profitable growth <ul><li>How can we correlate our advice with improved business performance and what (if any) is an appropriate “share of risk and reward”? </li></ul><ul><li>If “competency leverage” is to replace “capacity leverage” for most firms, what is the “right size” for a consulting firm? </li></ul><ul><li>If public markets are increasingly short term casinos what’s the appropriate ownership and capital structure for a consulting firm? </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    11. 11. Five issues for profitable growth <ul><li>If “reputation” matters, how do we design attractive careers for the majority of our (mostly unknown to the market) staff? </li></ul><ul><li>And </li></ul><ul><li>How will we deal with the continuing commoditization of competency and experience by the major business software vendors? </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    12. 12. The world in 2010 <ul><li>It way be our money, but it’s not going to be our culture, laws, expectations or control </li></ul><ul><li>Google rules: Information is everywhere but is it true and does it matter? </li></ul><ul><li>There are some critical “ends” in sight, but we still aren’t paying enough attention </li></ul><ul><li>Economics 2.0 is breaking out all over </li></ul><ul><li>“ Disaster” recovery is an increasingly common services requirement </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    13. 13. A manifesto for an agile advisor? <ul><li>We are uncovering better ways of delivering practical advice by active participation in improving our clients performance and helping others develop and execute ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>Through this work we have come to value: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Individuals and interactions over processes and tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Working processes over comprehensive documentation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer collaboration over contract negotiation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Responding to change over following a plan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide
    14. 14. Three ideas for the next five years <ul><li>Solve the continuous change management problem </li></ul><ul><li>Learn to work with Economics 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Build a rational strategy for sustainability </li></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide “ I don’t know what it is but you need a new one”
    15. 15. Conclusion: Find the magic <ul><li>“ Where there is mystery there is margin” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>John Jordan </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from magic” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adapted from Arthur C Clarke </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2005 All Rights Reserved Slide