The document discusses 10 challenges for a converging world based on lessons learned from the last decade of technological change. It begins with trivial questions to engage executives and then outlines 10 questions on topics like regulated consumer businesses, digital rights management, infrastructure standards, spectrum allocation, content monetization, and the nature of convergence. The document argues that predicting technology's future is difficult but certain trends around mobility, bandwidth demand, customer service, new content models, and global markets will shape the next decade.

1. Where Do We Go From Here? Ten Challenges for a Converging World John Parkinson Chairman and Managing Director ParkWood Advisors LLC

6. What have we learned from the last decade of technological boom and bust?

8. They’re over – for a LONG time to come……..

9. … ..With persistent volatility becoming normal High Low Years Rate of Change Traditional Mindset (Lower, stable Baseline) New Mindset (Higher, accelerating baseline) 5 Year Planning Process New CEO “ The Major Reorganization” Divest Non-Core Businesses Merger Semi-Annual Reorganization New Technology Platform Industry Deregulation Another New CEO Acquisition “A” Acquisition “B” Rebuilding the Supply Chain New CEO eBusiness Competition for Alliances

11. What’s coming? “ It always amazes me how consistently we over estimate what we can do in two years and underestimate what we can do in ten”

12. Predicting the future is hard….. A model of an easy to use 2004 “home computer” as envisaged by the RAND Corporation in 1954

13. Technologies shaping the decade Source: Institute for the Future INFORMATION BIOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS Emergent Computing New Architectures Wireless Technology Web Services Presence Flow Tracking Real-Time Energy Pricing Location Technology Collaboration Tagging Semantic Searching New Grammars Human Augmentation Distributed Energy Production Wave Power Wind Turbines Photovoltaic ZEST Energy Storage Premium Power Eco- Efficiency Fuel Cells Micro Fuel Cells Imaging Micro- Turbines Sterling Engine Biofuels Carbon Sequestering Implants New I/O Clean Nuclear Molecular Medicine Metabolics Proteomics Genomics Bioinformatics Systems Biology Vectors & Viruses Nutraceuticals Genetic Therapies Diagnostic Devices Biosensors Stem Cell Technology Microfluidics Smart Textiles Biometrics High- Performance Materials Nano- Science Molecular Manufacturing MEMS Robotics Photonics Organic/ Inorganic Interfaces

14. The hype cycle

15. Adjusting is a continuing challenge Performance Efficiency Inside the Business Efficiency Along the Value Chain We are here Uncertainty Planning Trajectory Reality Expectation Gap Early adopters shorten the expectation gap by switching curves ahead of the market… We must avoid being trapped between ‘S’ curves as families of enabling technologies evolve 95 00 05 10 15

16. With lots of surprises…. 10 Billion minutes 300 Billion minutes Sources: Atlantic ACM Research and Telegeography Inc. 2005 IP Telephony traffic growth, 2000-2006

18. ….which are not equally distributed globally…. Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm With less than 10% penetration Asia already represents over 1/3 of Global Internet usage. North America with nearly 70% participation is less than 25% of global use NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated on November 21, 2005. (2) CLICK on each world region for detailed regional information. (3) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (4) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen// NetRatings , by the International Telecommunications Union , by local NICs, and by other reliable sources. (5) For definitions, disclaimer, and navigation help, see the Site Surfing Guide . (6) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to www.internetworldstats.com . ©Copyright 2005, Miniwatts International, Ltd. All rights reserved. 169.5 % 100.0 % 15.2 % 972,828,001 100.0 % 6,420,102,722 WORLD TOTAL 132.2 % 1.8 % 52.9 % 17,690,762 0.5 % 33,443,448 Oceania / Australia 303.8 % 7.5 % 13.3 % 72,953,597 8.5 % 546,723,509 Latin America/Caribbean 107.3 % 23.0 % 68.2 % 224,103,811 5.1 % 328,387,059 North America 392.1 % 1.7 % 8.6 % 16,163,500 2.9 % 187,258,006 Middle East 171.6 % 29.3 % 35.5 % 285,408,118 12.5 % 804,574,696 Europe 191.0 % 34.2 % 9.2 % 332,590,713 56.4 % 3,622,994,130 Asia 429.8 % 2.5 % 2.7 % 23,917,500 14.0 % 896,721,874 Africa Usage Growth 2000-2005 Usage % of World % Population ( Penetration ) Internet Usage, Latest Data Population % of World Population ( 2005 Est.) World Regions WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS

19. … .or entirely desirable: Half of all Internet Traffic is P2P File Sharing. This graph shows the North America Traffic Index for the past 24 hours

21. Ten questions “ It may not be possible to predict the future, but it is certainly possible to invent it”……. Alan Kay

33. Questions & comments