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Artificial Intelligence: Existential
Threat or Our Best Hope for the
Future?
Jim Hendler, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute...
Talks I’m not giving today
What is the appropriate role for
machine intelligence?
A question that faces us today
Increasingly capable machines are co...
Late 20th Century AI criticism
BBC: Stephen Hawking warns
artificial intelligence could end
mankind (Dec 2, 2014)
“He told the BBC: The development of fu...
Guardian, 2/9/15
The robot apocalypse
has already started!!
AI is improving all the time
J. Schaeffer, 2014
AI is improving all the time
AlphaGo (Google) beats Lee Sedol (4th
ranked human) 4-1 March 2016.
AIs disallowed
Doctoral thesis
Not even close
Strong amateur
AI winner
And it’s not just games anymore
• Gaining new
prominence because
of advances
– Improving robotic
capabilities
• Increasing...
I’m sorry
Dave.
Science Fiction - 1968
Today
Today: We gain benefit from AI
But, the machines still need us…
But, the machines still need us…
credit: IBM Watson
What about tomorrow?
Will machines still need us?
Watson: Developers’ view
Watson (Blue-J) AI View
• From a research perspective Watson is
interesting in a number of ways
– because of the underlyin...
AI reasoners and Control flow
Traditional AI systems (rule or logic)
generally work forward from knowledge or
backward fro...
Simon (‘69) … to Minsky (’88) – ???
• AI as monolithic reasoner/
statistical learner/ …
vs
• AI as collection of small
pro...
Simon (‘69) … to Minsky (‘88) … to
Watson (‘12)
• AI as monolithic reasoner/
statistical learner/ …
vs
• AI as collection ...
IBM points out
The volume of medical
knowledge doubles every five
years
81% of physicians can’t even
space 5hrs/month to k...
Being a doctor is more than just what
is in the textbooks
Does textbook knowledge overcome experience, intuition and train...
Recent break-throughs in machine-learning
“phase transition” in capabilities of neural networks w/machine power
Deep-learning Image Recognition
Recognition vs. knowledge
Recognition vs. knowledge
"If I was telling it to a kid, I'd probably say
something like 'the cat has fur and four legs an...
Adding knowledge?
Which could you sit in?
What is most likely to bite what?
Which one is most likely to become a computer ...
Adding knowledge?
Which could you sit in?
What is most likely to bite what?
Which one is most likely to become a computer ...
Ethics and Responsibilities
• As AI gets more capable and the
interactions increase
– Who is responsible for use of the
te...
Ethics and Responsibilities
• As AI gets more capable and the
interactions increase
– is it ethical for us to not use mach...
BBC: Stephen Hawking warns
artificial intelligence could end
mankind (Dec 2, 2014)
“He told the BBC: The development of fu...
Done right, it may be our best hope
• eg. Our knowledge of cancer genomics grows
as cancer continues to spread
• eg. Our n...
These problems require the best minds of the next generation!
These problems require the best minds of the next generation!
Which will likely be both humans and machines.
Hendler and Mulvehill, 2016
Artificial Intelligence: Existential Threat or Our Best Hope for the Future?
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Artificial Intelligence: Existential Threat or Our Best Hope for the Future?

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Talk at Illinois Institute of Technology - discusses trends in AI, challenges, and promising directions.

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Artificial Intelligence: Existential Threat or Our Best Hope for the Future?

  1. 1. Artificial Intelligence: Existential Threat or Our Best Hope for the Future? Jim Hendler, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Tetherless World Chair of Computer, Web and Cognitive Sciences Director, Rensselaer Institute for Data Exploration and Applications http://www.cs.rpi.edu/~hendler hendler@cs.rpi.edu @jahendler
  2. 2. Talks I’m not giving today
  3. 3. What is the appropriate role for machine intelligence? A question that faces us today Increasingly capable machines are continuing to improve their skills on tasks, both cognitive and physical, that previously have been the sole province of humans. What is the future promise vs. risk, and what should we do about that?
  4. 4. Late 20th Century AI criticism
  5. 5. BBC: Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind (Dec 2, 2014) “He told the BBC: The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” "It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said. "Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded. A discussion/response to Stephen Hawking
  6. 6. Guardian, 2/9/15 The robot apocalypse has already started!!
  7. 7. AI is improving all the time J. Schaeffer, 2014
  8. 8. AI is improving all the time AlphaGo (Google) beats Lee Sedol (4th ranked human) 4-1 March 2016.
  9. 9. AIs disallowed Doctoral thesis Not even close Strong amateur AI winner
  10. 10. And it’s not just games anymore • Gaining new prominence because of advances – Improving robotic capabilities • Increasingly able to integrate in human society (eg. self- driving vehicles)
  11. 11. I’m sorry Dave. Science Fiction - 1968 Today
  12. 12. Today: We gain benefit from AI
  13. 13. But, the machines still need us…
  14. 14. But, the machines still need us…
  15. 15. credit: IBM Watson What about tomorrow?
  16. 16. Will machines still need us?
  17. 17. Watson: Developers’ view
  18. 18. Watson (Blue-J) AI View • From a research perspective Watson is interesting in a number of ways – because of the underlying “cognitive pipeline” – as a different approach to memory-based reasoning – as a model of (some aspects) of human cognition – as the validation of a fundamental AI paradigm
  19. 19. AI reasoners and Control flow Traditional AI systems (rule or logic) generally work forward from knowledge or backward from a goal looking “looping” through possible answers and backtracking when they cannot find one
  20. 20. Simon (‘69) … to Minsky (’88) – ??? • AI as monolithic reasoner/ statistical learner/ … vs • AI as collection of small processes lightly linked and moderated through learned contexts
  21. 21. Simon (‘69) … to Minsky (‘88) … to Watson (‘12) • AI as monolithic reasoner/ statistical learner/ … vs • AI as collection of small processes lightly linked and moderated through learned contexts Re-emerging paradigm in cognitive computing thanks to Watson…
  22. 22. IBM points out The volume of medical knowledge doubles every five years 81% of physicians can’t even space 5hrs/month to keep up By 2020 doctors will face 200x the amount of medical data and facts that a human could process and proposes that Watson will help.
  23. 23. Being a doctor is more than just what is in the textbooks Does textbook knowledge overcome experience, intuition and training?
  24. 24. Recent break-throughs in machine-learning “phase transition” in capabilities of neural networks w/machine power
  25. 25. Deep-learning Image Recognition
  26. 26. Recognition vs. knowledge
  27. 27. Recognition vs. knowledge "If I was telling it to a kid, I'd probably say something like 'the cat has fur and four legs and goes meow, the duck is a bird and it swims and goes quack’. "
  28. 28. Adding knowledge? Which could you sit in? What is most likely to bite what? Which one is most likely to become a computer scientist someday? If you could only save one in an emergency, which would you choose? …
  29. 29. Adding knowledge? Which could you sit in? What is most likely to bite what? Which one is most likely to become a computer scientist someday? If you could only save one in an emergency, which would you choose? …
  30. 30. Ethics and Responsibilities • As AI gets more capable and the interactions increase – Who is responsible for use of the technology • eg. is it the drone or the drone designer who fires the missile – What are the ethical dimensions of machines taking human jobs • we are heading to a displacement/disruption similar to the industrial revolution • We made it through that, but with a lot of painful societal change
  31. 31. Ethics and Responsibilities • As AI gets more capable and the interactions increase – is it ethical for us to not use machines where we cannot deploy people?
  32. 32. BBC: Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind (Dec 2, 2014) “He told the BBC: The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” "It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said. "Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded. Done wrong, we do look at a scary possibility
  33. 33. Done right, it may be our best hope • eg. Our knowledge of cancer genomics grows as cancer continues to spread • eg. Our neighborhoods degrade as wealth disparity grows • eg. Our climate warms as we argue about the causes without changing behaviors
  34. 34. These problems require the best minds of the next generation!
  35. 35. These problems require the best minds of the next generation! Which will likely be both humans and machines.
  36. 36. Hendler and Mulvehill, 2016

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