Presentation on analysis

1. Module 2:
Basic analyses

2. Module 2: Learning Objectives
 Identify approaches for setting targets
 Understand common analyses that calculate
program coverage and retention
 Calculate program coverage and retention

3. Terminology
 Indicator
 Target
 Program coverage
 Service availability
 Service utilization
 Program retention

4. Indicator
 Program element that needs tracking
 Measures an aspect of a program’s performance
 Measures changes over a period of time
• # of new family planning users
• # of clients currently on ART
 Expressed as a number or percentage

5. Target Definition
 A specified level of performance for a
measure (indicator), at a predetermined
point in time (i.e., achieve ‘x’ by ‘y’ date)
 Overall target
 Annual targets

6. Why Set Targets?
 Targets help program staff with:
 Planning
– Staffing and service delivery
– Commodities
 Monitoring progress
– Break long-term goals into manageable pieces
– Check progress on indicators

7. Setting Reasonable Targets
 The range of values for a given indicator
can be from 0% to 100%.
• Example: The theoretical range for the Polio
indicator is between 0% of children
immunized (bad) and 100% immunized
(ideal)
• Is it appropriate to set the Polio indicator
target at 100% for a given program?
Why/why not?

8. Setting Reasonable Targets
 Example: In Somalia, the national CPR from
2007 to 2009 was15%. The following year, a
national target was set for 70%.
 Is it appropriate to set the CPR target for
Somalia at 70%? Why/why not?

9. Overall Target Setting Approaches
 There are three approaches to set a target :
 Established long-term goals by contacting that
national program
 Past performance (of your program, increasing by
no more than 10%)
 Local high performer (a stellar program nearby)
 Consider the number of clients your program can
realistically expect to serve during a given period
of time

10. Annual Target Setting
 Determine the increase your program needs
to gain to reach your overall target
 Divide that number by the number of years in
which you would like to achieve the target
 Add the number to your baseline indicator for
each year

11. Considerations for Target Setting
 Ensure you have an agreed-upon and realistic
definition of target population
 Set a realistic target to achieve in the long term
and short term

12. Importance of Defining the Target
Population: Case Example
 Target was 372 children to be immunized
 Actual was 488 children immunized
 To calculate the % target achieved, use
(Actual/Target) * 100
 488/372 = 1.31*100 = 131%
 How could the clinic have surpassed its
target by so much?

13. Implications of Incorrect Target
Setting: Case Example
 You don’t really know to what extent you’re fully
immunizing the children in your setting
 If your program purchases commodities (e.g.,
vaccines) based on the target set, supply could
run out
 If you set your target too low, you may not have
enough vaccines, leading to disease outbreaks

14. Common Analyses
 Program Coverage
 Extent to which a program reaches its intended
target population, institution, or geographic area
 Compare current performance to prior year/quarter
 Compare performance between sites
 Program Retention
 Extent to which the range of services is being
delivered as initially intended so that client drop-
outs are minimal

15. 15
Why do we need to measure
coverage?
 To understand program progress
 To determine if the target is reached
 Clients, commodities, adherence…
 To determine if one target is reached more
effectively than another
• Are there underserved area/regions, subpopulations?

16. Program coverage
 Extent to which a program reaches its intended target
population, institution, or geographic area
 Utilization:
 Is the target population utilizing services, accessing
commodities, being reached with services?
 Availability:
 Are the services available where there is a need?

17. Utilization calculation
Percentage of the target population utilizing
services
# of individuals in target population
using a service
------------------------------------------- X 100
# of individuals in target population

18. Utilization calculation: Example
 No. of persons educated as of 6/12/09 = 300
 Goal for 12/31/09 = 900
300
900
 You have reached 33% of your target group with
education messages
= 0.33 x 100 =
33%

19. Comparison of time periods
 Compare percentage achieved toward target for
different time periods, different sites, etc.
 Rate of increase
 As of January, 70 people educated; by June, 300
people
 300 – 70 = 230 increase in people educated
 230/6 = 38.3 new people educated per month
over the 6 months

20. Sought prenatal care
(600)
All pregnant women
(2,000)
PMTCT
Target
(1,000)
Utilization =
Service users
Target population
Counseled &
Tested for HIV (500)
Utilization of PMTCT Programs
Utilization =
600/1,000 = 0.6
0.6 x 100 = 60%

21. Program coverage
 Extent to which a program reaches its intended target
population, institution, or geographic area
 Utilization:
 Is the target population utilizing services, accessing
commodities, being reached with services?
 Availability:
 Are the services available where there is a need?

22. Availability calculation
 Number of service outlets available per target
population
 # of clinics with PMTCT per # of pregnant women
 Expressed as a ratio

23. PMTCT clinic availability
 There are 8 clinics offering PMTCT & 100,000
pregnant women in region X.
 Ratio of clinics to pregnant women 8:100,000
 Reduce to (1:12,500) pregnant women
 The standard recommendation is 1 clinic with
PMTCT services per 10,000 pregnant women
 Clinic availability is not reaching the target

24. Availability + Utilization = Coverage
 Service availability is 1:12,500
 Service availability target is 1:10,000
 PMTCT service utilization is 25% off the target
 What can we conclude?
 Service availability and utilization are too low; the
program is not meeting the needs of pregnant
women.

25. 25
Program retention
 Measures if the range of services are being delivered
as initially intended
 Determines program retention, i.e., is the project
keeping clients through entire package of services?
• Important in clinical programs where drug adherence is
an issue (TB, HIV/AIDS, immunization) and there are
multiple steps (PMTCT)

26. Utilization
Retention example: Immunization
Enter service
Polio dose 1
Polio dose 2 Polio dose 3
Completion

27. Tested for HIV (500)
Sought prenatal care (600)
All pregnant women
(2,000 women)
PMTCT
Target
(1,000)
40 received
prophylaxis
350 received HIV-
result or no result
100 received HIV+
result
PMTCT Program Retention

28. Tested for HIV
Sought prenatal care
All pregnant women
(2,000 women)
40 received
prophylaxis
350 received HIV-
result
100 received HIV+
result
1,000
500
PMTCT Program Retention

29. Tested for HIV (500)
Sought prenatal care (600)
All pregnant women
(2,000 women)
PMTCT
Target
(1,000)
40 received
prophylaxis
350 received HIV-
result
100 received HIV+
result
PMTCT Program Retention

30. Tested for HIV (500)
Sought prenatal care (600)
All pregnant women
(2,000 women)
PMTCT
Target
(1,000)
40 received
prophylaxis
350 received HIV-
result or no result
100 received HIV+
result
PMTCT Program Retention

31. Tested for HIV (500)
Sought prenatal care (600)
All pregnant women
(2,000 women)
PMTCT
Target
(1,000)
40 received
prophylaxis
350 received HIV-
result or no result
100 received HIV+
result
PMTCT Program Retention

32. Key messages
 Target Setting – A specified level of performance for
a measure (indicator) at a predetermined point in
time. Both overall and annual targets are set
 Coverage – extent to which a program reaches
its intended target population, institution, or
geographic area
 Retention – the extent to which the range of
services are being delivered as initially intended,
with clients retained throughout the full package
of services