Brief overview of the steps and data required for quantification of health commodities

1. Overview of
Quantification
of Health Commodities
Kabiru Gulma

2. OUTLINE
 What quantification is
 Overview of steps in quantification
 Data required for quantification

3. What is
Quantification?
Quantification is the process of estimating
the quantities and costs of the products
required for a specific health program (or
service), and determining when the
products should be delivered to ensure an
uninterrupted supply for the program.

4. Why is
Quantification
Necessary?
• Planning procurements for hospital
services, community services, or public
health program intervention
• Budgeting and resource mobilization
• Supply planning
• Preventing or correcting supply imbalances
• Ensuring product quality
• Preparing for program expansion or
introduction of new services or products

5. What are the
Steps Involved
in a
Quantification?
Preparation • Step 1
Forecasting • Step 2
Supply
Planning
• Step 3

6. Step 1
Preparation
1. Assembling a quantification team
2. Describing the program (program
performance, policies, and strategic
plan)
3. Defining the purpose and scope of the
quantification exercise (products,
timing, etc.)
4. Collection of required data for
forecasting and supply planning

7. Step 2
Forecasting
Forecasting is defined as estimating the
quantities of commodities that could be
used by a program for a specific period of
time in the future.

8. Step 2
Forecasting
(contd.)
1. Organize, analyze, and adjust data
2. Build and obtain consensus on
forecasting assumptions
3. Calculate the forecasted consumption
for each product
4. Compare and reconcile results of
different forecasts

9. Step 3
Supply
Planning
Supply planning is simply determining
when the products should be delivered to
ensure uninterrupted supply for the
program.

10. Step 3
Supply
Planning
(contd.)
1. Organize and analyze data
2. Build supply planning assumptions
3. Estimate total commodity requirements
and costs (for a year or multi-year)
4. Develop a supply plan
5. Compare funding available and total
commodity cost

11. What Kinds of
Data do we
Need for
Quantification?
Broadly two kinds of data are required for
quantification. They are-
1. Data for forecasting, and
2. Data for supply planning

12. Data for
Forecasting
*Six categories of data can be used for
forecasting
1. Program background information
E.g. Program evaluation report, policy and
strategic planning documents, technical
reports, work plans, etc.
Challenge: May be outdated and not
reflect current policies, strategies, or
context

13. Data for
Forecasting
(contd.)
2. Demographic Data
Demographic Health Survey (DHS), or
national census data
Data on population growth and trends
Data on population characteristics, e.g.,
geographical distribution, age, gender,
occupation
Challenge: Tends to be outdated (1–4 years
old or more), or data may not reflect the same
time period and, therefore, cannot be easily
aligned

14. Data for
Forecasting
(contd.)
3. Morbidity Data
Epidemiological surveillance data or
research data on incidence and prevalence
of disease or health conditions in a given
population expressed as a ratio or
percentage
Challenge: Data may be outdated (1–2 years),
or if data are specific to a particular
population group, you will need to extrapolate
to estimate incidence or prevalence in the
general population

15. Data for
Forecasting
(contd.)
4. Services Data
HMIS reports, program M & E reports,
facility surveys of service records, daily
registers
Reported number of services provided, e.g.,
past 12 months, number of cases of disease
or health condition treated, number of HIV
tests conducted, number of children
immunized
Challenge: Data may be unavailable, outdated,
incomplete, or unreliable for the past 12
months

16. Data for
Forecasting
(contd.)
5. Commodities Consumption Data
LMIS reports, facility surveys of stock
records, and consumption records
Reported quantities of products dispensed
to patients/clients or quantities of products
used
Challenge: Data may be unavailable, outdated,
incomplete, incidences of stock out, or
unreliable for the past 12 months

17. Data for
Forecasting
(contd.)
6. Program Targets
National policy and strategic planning
documents
National annual program targets or service
coverage rates set as goals for the program
Challenge: Program targets may be politically
motivated for advocacy purposes and not
based on realistic program capacity

18. Data for
Supply
Planning
1. Product (inclusion in EML, and product
characteristics)
2. Stock on hand
3. Quantity on order
4. Available budget
5. Desired stock level to be maintained
6. Storage capacity

19. Quantification
Process

20. What other
thing we need
to know about
quantification?
Quantification is
NOT a one-time
annual exercise; it
MUST be a
continuous process
that requires
ongoing monitoring
and routine
updates.

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