small arms lethality is a complex equation.
military operations are generally a team event.....more like football or soccer than tennis......
therefore teamwork and safety adds complexity
2. SHOOTER Variables Considerations
Eyesight (far, near, etc.)
• Glasses
• Sight design
Eye dominance Training?
Astigmatism
• Glasses
• Sight design
Right/left-handed Weapon design
Body size Weapon adjustability
Fatigue
Affects memory and information
processing
Countermeasures?
Stress
• Sight/Reticle complexity
• Training fidelity
ARI: Told that the target would
shoot BBs, rate of fire went up
and accuracy went down
Teamwork Muzzle blast/muzzle control
Hearing
• Hearing Protection
• Gun Muzzle Diverter
• Gun Suppressor
Memory
• Training frequency
• Embedded Job Aid(s)
• Target with zeroing
instructions (on/in MRE case)
ARI: shooters had difficulty
adjusting/zeroing sights & tended
to forget. ARI solution was a job
aid on the stock.
Expectations • One shot kill fantasy
Targets that require multiple shots
to kill
3. TARGETS Variables Considerations
Range
• Bullet drop/ballistics
• Sight/reticle design
Range estimation/
measurement
Size Sight/reticle design
Speed (by angle)
• Lead by distance/ speed/
angle
• Sight/reticle design
ARI BIFV 25mm study
suggested 3 lead rules by
angle.
Firing/shooting Stress, distractions
Defilade (by amount?)
• Target size
• Target exposure time
Targets in trenches
Targets behind walls, trees,
vehicles, etc.
Obscured (vegetation, etc.)
• Target detectability
• Sight/reticle design
Weather (rain, snow, fog,
etc.)
Target visibility
Day/night Target visibility
Weapon signature (dust,
flash, sound)
Aiming points
Combat footage shows
confusion over what to shoot
at.
Elevation (uphill, downhill)
• Bullet drop
• Sight/reticle design
Elevation affects range
Number Multiple targets Target prioritization
4. ENVIRONMENT Variables Considerations
Temperature Bullet ballistics
Rain Target visibility
Snow
Clothing/equipment
interfaces
Wind
• Bullet drift
• Lead/lag
• How measure?
• How adjust?
Uphill/downhill
• Range
• Bullet ballistics
• How measure?
• How adjust?
5. WEAPON/CALIBER/BULLET Variables Considerations
Bullet energy on target Lethality (Pk)
Target penetration
• Target armor
• Surrounding materials
(brush, dirt, sandbags, walls,
etc.)
Accuracy
• Rifle
• Ammunition
• Sight/reticle design
Recoil
• Shooter accuracy
• Weapon design
• Shooter injury
Cost Life Cycle
Target tissue effects Bullet design
System weight Fatigue
Contaminants
Rifle design: Combustion
byproducts discharged to face?
• Heavy metal poisoning
• Bone testing
Blast/noise Blast/noise at ear
• Shooter injury
• Situational awareness
• Muzzle diverter
• Suppressor
Accessory Forward grip/Bipod/tripod • Increases stability
Stock-IBA interface
6. SIGHTS Variables Considerations
Reticle
• Time to engage
• Information vs complexity
• Range information/adjust for range
• FFP or SFP
• Cant info
• Adjust for uphill/downhill
• Battery status
• Reticle complexity
• Dot sights (vs iron) increased hit/kill.
• SDM increased kills.
• Ultra long-range computations input
(Coriolis effects)
Night • Target detectability
Thermal • Target detectability
Range
• Range info by target size (passive)
• Measure range (active)
• Auto adjust reticle to range
• In-sight Laser ranging
• In-sight auto-range bullet drop adjust
Obscurants See thru Sights with LIDAR might see thru foliage.
Lead/lag
• Measure target speed
• Provide lead/lag
Wind
• Measure wind speed
• Provide lead/lag
Sights with LIDAR can measure wind.
Boresighting
• Accuracy
• Rough handling affects zero
• Ammo lots affect zero
• Ease of use
• Boresighting target availability
• Laser accessory
Battery
• Auto on/off
• Battery life in hours
• Battery change difficulty
• Backup/secondary?
Adjustability to shooter
• Focus
• Astigmatism
Eye relief • Eye relief ‘box’ depth
Sight signature (from Target)
• Lens hood
• Anti-Reflective Device
7. EQUIPMENT Variables Considerations
Body armor
• Affects weapon needed
adjustability range
• Rifle stability (deltoid
pocket
• Affects eye relief
Adding IBA to qualification
reduced qual rate by 40%
initially.
Shoulder (deltoid) pocket • Shooter-gun stability IBA design
Weight • Fatigue
Heat
• Fatigue
• Burns (suppressors can
get burning hot)
Gloves • Trigger finger room
Helmet
• Affects shooter-sight
angle to higher targets
See Mobility-Portability
Course at APG
8. TRAINING Variables Considerations
Range fidelity
• Offensive/defensive ranges
• Unit size
• Weapon mix
• Threat/OPFOR
• Moving targets
• “Shooting” targets
• Hard-to-Kill targets
• Obscured targets
• Defiladed targets
USMC Rogers’ study found KD
‘expert’ shooters could not hit any
moving targets
Defensive positions IAW FM
Range procedures
• Combat commands
• Range cards
• Aiming stakes
Why train throwing a grenade but
not the proper command?
Target fidelity
• Range to targets re weapon
type
• Movement
• Signatures (heat, IR, muzzle
flash, etc.)
• Defiladed/obscured
• Multiple targets by priority
• Uphill/downhill
• “Shooting” targets
Pre-operations checks • Bore sighting/zeroing
Post-operation checks
• Clearing
• Cleaning
• Safety
• Reliability
9. INDIRECT FIRE
WEAPONS
Variables Considerations
Burst size on target • Lethality (Pk)
Target penetration
• Target armor
• Surrounding materials (brush, dirt,
sandbags, walls, etc.)
Accuracy
• Range
• Ammunition
• Sight design
• Steerable
Recoil/blast
• Shooter accuracy
• Weapon design
• Shooter injury
Cost • Life Cycle
Target effects
• Round design
• Round options (HE, WP, AP, etc.)
System weight
• Fatigue
• Mobility
Blast/noise • Blast/noise at ear
• Shooter injury
• Situational awareness
Control
• Laser guided
• Steerable
• Increases accuracy
• Conserves ammunition
Rate of Fire
• Target range
• Target speed
• xxx
• Generally attackers seek a 3-to-1
numerical superiority.
Volume of fire • Massed targets
• Slammer (multiple 70mm rockets
pods on trailer) vs mortars
• Metal Storm
10. TOE LETHALITY SUPPORT Variables Considerations
TOE/MTOE
• “Lethality NCO” at Company &
BN level
• Expert direct fire trainer
• Gunsmith
• “Indirect fire” NCO (previous
experience as mortar platoon
NCO). Acts as Forward
Observer.
• Training doesn’t stop after
deployment
• Combat rehearsals are an
important tool
• Workload will define the
TOE/MTOE
https://www.globalsecurity.org/milit
ary/library/report/call/call_2qfy95_c
tcchap4.htm
Equipment
• Vices
• Tools
• Portable targets
• Boresighting tools
• MILES Plus
Portable Ranges
• Configurable to terrain,
mission, OPFOR
Targets
• Range to targets re weapon
type
• Movement
• Signatures (heat, IR, muzzle
flash, etc.)
• Defiladed/obscured
• Multiple targets by priority
• Uphill/downhill
• “Shooting” targets
11. CLOSE AIR DRONE
SUPPORT (ORGANIC)
Variables Considerations
Scout
• Fly camera drones on right &
left flanks
• Recon forward
• Follow enemy forces to
caches/bases/HQ
• Provide target coordinates for
precise mortar/artillery fires
• Drone signatures
Laser
• Laze targets for smart rounds
• Defiladed/obscured targets
• Obscurant effects on laser
• Multi-spectral sensor arrays
Spray
• Chemical weapons
• Dyes/markers
Explosives
• Drone as smart bomb
• Dropping bombs
Direct fire
• Minimum recoil guns
• Rockets
12. CLOSE COMBAT
GROUND DRONE
SUPPORT (ORGANIC)
VARIABLE CONSIDERATIONS
Wingman (vehicle or
robot)
• Drone is paired with manned
vehicle or Soldier
• Drone signatures
• Hacking risk
• Vehicle/shooter-to-drone commo
link
• Maintenance costs
• Manpower/MOS impacts
Supply • Supply volume
• Most war costs are in energy & re-
supply
• A Division is basically a small city
needing all the material that a real
city needs (fuel, water, ammo,
food, parts, medical, housing, etc.)
Direct Fire
• Autonomous weapons
• Paired weapons.
• Attackers seek to overwhelm
defenses.
• Defenders need counter-measures
to increase Target servicing
Casualty recovery • Recovers & protects casualties • Casualties can be under direct fire
EOD
• Remote viewing
• Defuse
• Detonate
• Already fielded
AI OPFOR
• Simulates area operations with AI
Red Team/OPFOR
• Refines tactics & strategies
• Queuing/workload
• Model post-operation recovery
• SIMET Plus in TOC
• British study found re-supply,
distribution, etc. consumed
manpower & time. Led to pre-
packaged unit sets.
13. OPINIONS-CONCLUSIONS
• Objective is to stimulate thinking.
• “Lethality” is more than bullet size.
• Smart sights and high-fidelity training may be
strongest variables to increase Pd/Ph/Pk.
• Defiladed/obscured targets need solutions.
• Defenders by definition need accurate fire volume
at greater ranges to defeat numerically superior
attackers (see Gorman Soviet tank attack analysis).
See also Slammer tests and Metal Storm.
