SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 33
Download to read offline
Economic Development
in a Changing World
Essays in Honour of Mohan Panicker
Geneva, March 2016
Ϯ
(GLWRU .DOPDQ .DORWD
3URGXFWLRQ PDQDJHU .KDOHG *DDIDU
RYHU SDJH 6RSKLH RPEHWWH
7KLV LV QRW D 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV SXEOLFDWLRQ 7KH YLHZV DUH WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRUV DQG GR
QRW QHFHVVDULO UHIOHFW WKH RSLQLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
ϯ
7$%/( 2) 217(176
3DUW , 'HYHORSPHQW 3ROLFLHV LQ D *OREDOL]LQJ :RUOG  
3ROLF VSDFH GH MXUH DQG GH IDFWR FRQVWUDLQWV  
-|UJ 0DHU
1RW MXVW DQRWKHU EULFN LQ WKH ZDOO PDNLQJ GHPRFUDF DQG HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN IRU VXVWDLQDEOH
GHYHORSPHQW 
3LHUJLXVHSSH )RUWXQDWR
)URP WKLUG ZRUOG WR ILUVW ZRUOG WKH UHOHYDQFH RI H[SHULHQFH VKDULQJ DW WKH 3 FRXUVH IRU
6LQJDSRUH  
0DOHU 9LOHH
,V FDSDFLWEXLOGLQJ IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH ULJKW GLUHFWLRQ  
0DULD $OHMDQGUD *RQ]DOH]3HUH]
3DUW ,, +DUQHVVLQJ %HQHILWV IURP 7UDGH 
7UDGH FRXOG DQG VKRXOG EH DQ HQJLQH RI JURZWK ² ZH MXVW QHHG GLIIHUHQW WUDFNV  
0LD 0LNLF
$IULFD PXVW EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ LWVHOI LQ WKH UDSLGO FKDQJLQJ ZRUOG WUDGH ODQGVFDSH  
6LPRQ 0HYHO
7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LQ WKH ()7$  LQWHJUDWLRQ  
3UHGUDJ %MHOLü
3DUW ,,, (QKDQFLQJ 3URGXFWLYH DSDFLWLHV 
RQVHTXHQFHV RI WKH ULVH RI IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW IRU SROLF PDNLQJ  
.DOPDQ .DORWD
DQ ZH FRQWURO RXU WHFKQRORJLFDO IXWXUH  
0LFKDHO /LP
,7 IRU GHYHORSPHQW WKH QHHG IRU EUHDNLQJ GRZQ VLORV  
7RUEM|UQ )UHGULNVVRQ
3DUW ,9 :KHQ 3HUVRQDO ([SHULHQFH 0HHWV 6FLHQFH  
+DLUFXWV $Q HPSLULFDO VWXG RQ *$77 DQG *$76 
-DQ +RIIPDQQ
/LVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV
ϰ
3$57 ,
'(9(/230(17 32/,,(6 ,1 $ */2%$/,=,1* :25/'
ϱ
3ROLF VSDFH GH MXUH DQG GH IDFWR FRQVWUDLQWV
-|UJ 0DHU
77KH GHEDWH RQ WKH FRQFHSW RI ´SROLF VSDFHµ VWDUWHG DURXQG  ,W DURVH IURP
FRQFHUQV WKDW WKH 8UXJXD 5RXQG $JUHHPHQWV RI PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGH QHJRWLDWLRQV KDG
PDGH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ORVH URRP RI PDQRHXYUH LQ SROLFPDNLQJ DQG IURP KRSHV
WKDW WKH 'RKD 5RXQG DV D 'HYHORSPHQW 5RXQG ZRXOG UHEDODQFH WKLV ORVV +RZHYHU SROLF
VSDFH GHSHQGV QRW RQO RQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO UXOHV 5DWKHU LQ D JOREDOL]HG ZRUOG LW DOVR
GHSHQGV RQ WKH LPSDFW RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO PDUNHW FRQGLWLRQV DQG SROLF GHFLVLRQV WDNHQ LQ
RWKHU FRXQWULHV RQ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV )URP WKLV EURDGHU
SHUVSHFWLYH SROLF VSDFH PD EH GHILQHG DV WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH DYDLODELOLW RI
QDWLRQDO SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV DQG WKHLU HIIHFWLYHQHVV LQ DWWDLQLQJ HFRQRPLF SROLF WDUJHWV
´$YDLODELOLWµ UHIHUV WR D QDWLRQ VWDWH·V VRYHUHLJQW WR HPSOR FHUWDLQ SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV
LW LV DIIHFWHG E FRQWUDFWXDO GH MXUH
DGKHUHQFH WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO UXOHV DQG UHJXODWLRQV
´(IIHFWLYHQHVVµ UHIHUV WR WKH LPSDFW RI GRPHVWLF SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV RQ DFKLHYLQJ QDWLRQDO
WDUJHWV LW LV DIIHFWHG E GH IDFWR
LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ
7KH PDLQ IDFWRUV WKDW UHGXFH WKH DYDLODELOLW RI SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV LQFOXGH PXOWLODWHUDO
WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV ELODWHUDO DQG UHJLRQDO WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW DJUHHPHQWV
FRQGLWLRQDOLW DWWDFKHG WR ORDQ DJUHHPHQWV ZLWK %UHWWRQ :RRGV LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG
FRQGLWLRQDOLW DWWDFKHG WR DYDLODELOLW RI DLG 5HGXFHG HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV
PD UHVXOW IURP SUHPDWXUH ILQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG WKH SURFFOLFDOLW RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO
FDSLWDO IORZV WKH DEVHQFH RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO PRQHWDU DQG ILQDQFLDO GLVFLSOLQHV ZKLFK
OHDYHV H[FKDQJHUDWH DQG FDSLWDOIORZ YRODWLOLW XQFRQVWUDLQHG RU H[SDQVLRQDU
PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV WKDW WULJJHU LPSRUWV UDWKHU WKDQ FUHDWLQJ GRPHVWLF ZDJH DQG
HPSORPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV
$W WKH VDPH WLPH LQWHJUDWLRQ HQODUJHV SROLF VSDFH LQ WHUPV RI GH IDFWR FRQWURO EHFDXVH
PXOWLODWHUDO UXOHV DQG GLVFLSOLQHV HQDEOH D FRRUGLQDWHG UHVSRQVH WR FURVVERUGHU
GLVWXUEDQFHV DQG SUHYHQW SROLFPDNHUV LQ FRXQWULHV WKDW KDYH D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO ODUJH
LPSDFW RQ WKH HYROXWLRQ RI RWKHU HFRQRPLHV IURP DGRSWLQJ GLVFULPLQDWRU RU EHJJDUWK
QHLJKERXU SROLFLHV )RU H[DPSOH FROOHFWLYH WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ VHFXUHV UHFLSURFDO
PDUNHW DFFHVV ZKLOH XQLODWHUDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ PD FDXVH EDODQFHRISDPHQWV DQG
HPSORPHQW SUREOHPV $QG UXOHVEDVHG VRYHUHLJQ GHEW VWDQGVWLOOV DQG RUGHUO ZRUNRXWV
LQFUHDVH WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW DQG WLPHO UHVWUXFWXULQJ RI GHEW ZKHQ UHTXLUHG
:KLOH GH IDFWR LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR LQWHUQDWLRQDO PDUNHWV UHGXFHV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO
PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV LW FDQ LPSURYH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI PDQ VWUXFWXUDO SROLFLHV WKDW
DUH RI FUXFLDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ,QFUHDVLQJ UHWXUQV WR VFDOH RQ DQ
LQGXVWUZLGH EDVLV DQG HQKDQFHG WHFKQRORJLFDO XSJUDGLQJ DUH WKH WZR PDLQ FKDQQHOV
WKDW FRPSDUHG WR SROLFLHV LQ FORVHG HFRQRPLHV PDNH RXWZDUGRULHQWHG SROLFLHV PRUH
HIIHFWLYH LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ FRPSHWLWLYH LQGXVWULHV WKXV LPSURYLQJ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI
QDWLRQDO VHFWRUDO DQG WHFKQRORJ SROLFLHV 7HFKQRORJLFDO XSJUDGLQJ LQ GHYHORSLQJ
FRXQWULHV RIWHQ GHSHQGV RQ WKH DYDLODELOLW RI IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJLHV HPERGLHG LQ
LPSRUWHG FDSLWDO JRRGV SDUWLFXODUO GXULQJ WKH LQLWLDO VWDJHV RI LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ
(FRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ IDFLOLWDWHV DFFHVV WR IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJLHV DQG WKH IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH
HDUQHG IURP H[SRUWLQJ DOOHYLDWHV WKH EDODQFHRISDPHQWV FRQVWUDLQW %RWK WKHVH

7KH DXWKRU JUDWHIXOO DFNQRZOHGJHV 0RKDQ 3DQLFNHU·V HQFRXUDJHPHQW WR FRQYH WKLV LGHD WR
SROLFPDNHUV WKURXJK 817$'·V 3DUDJUDSK  FRXUVH WKDW KH FRRUGLQDWHG IRU PDQ HDUV
ϲ
PHFKDQLVPV FRPELQH WR UHLQIRUFH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI D FRXQWU·V VHFWRUDO DQG
WHFKQRORJ SROLFLHV WR EXLOG SURGXFWLYH FDSDFLW DQG VSXU SURGXFWLYLW JURZWK
5HJDUGLQJ ILQDQFLDO LQWHJUDWLRQ DFFHVV WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV HQDEOHV
GRPHVWLF ILUPV WR ILQDQFH LQYHVWPHQW DW LQWHUQDWLRQDOO FRPSHWLWLYH FRQGLWLRQV ZKLFK
LQFUHDVHV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO LQYHVWPHQW SROLFLHV
7KLV LOOXVWUDWHV WKDW WKH WHQVLRQ EHWZHHQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF
SROLF VSDFH LV DIIHFWHG E VHYHUDO IRUFHV WKDW SXOO LQ RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQV +RZHYHU WKHUH
LV QR TXDQWLILDEOH VLQJOH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ PXOWLODWHUDO GLVFLSOLQHV DQG QDWLRQDO SROLF
DXWRQRP WKDW VXLWV DOO FRXQWULHV RU DSSOLHV DFURVV DOO VSKHUHV RI HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW 7KH
PDWXULW RI D FRXQWU·V LQVWLWXWLRQDO GHYHORSPHQW WKH VXVWDLQDELOLW RI LWV H[WHUQDO
DFFRXQWV LWV HFRQRPLF VL]H DQG SDWWHUQ RI GRPHVWLF SURGXFWLRQ ZLOO LQIOXHQFH WKH LPSDFW
RI LWV LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ RQ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO SROLFLHV
6LPLODUO DW DQ OHYHO RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW D FRXQWU·V RSWLPDO GHJUHH RI
LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LV OLNHO WR GLIIHU DFURVV GLIIHUHQW VSKHUHV VXFK DV WUDGH
LQYHVWPHQW ILQDQFH ODERXU DQG WHFKQRORJ )RU H[DPSOH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D IXQFWLRQLQJ
GRPHVWLF ILQDQFLDO PDUNHW DQG SULRU LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR LQWHUQDWLRQDO JRRGV PDUNHWV DUH
OLNHO WR EH VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRUV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH LPSDFW RI D FRXQWU·V FDSLWDO PDUNHW
LQWHJUDWLRQ RQ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI LWV PRQHWDU DQG ILQDQFLDO SROLFLHV +HQFH ZKHWKHU
LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV RU UHGXFHV QDWLRQDO SROLF VSDFH LV DQ HPSLULFDO
TXHVWLRQ IRU HDFK FRXQWU DQG IRU HDFK WSH RI LQWHJUDWLRQ
ϳ
1RW MXVW DQRWKHU EULFN LQ WKH ZDOO PDNLQJ GHPRFUDF DQG HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN
IRU VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW
3LHUJLXVHSSH )RUWXQDWR
77KH VXFFHVV RI WKH  6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV 6'*V
WKDW HQWHUHG LQWR IRUFH
LQ -DQXDU  DQG ZLOO VKDSH WKH GHYHORSPHQW GHEDWH RYHU WKH QH[W  HDUV ZLOO
FULWLFDOO UHO RQ WKH FDSDFLW RI GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV WR PRELOL]H WKH IXOO UDQJH RI
SURGXFWLYH UHVRXUFHV QHHGHG WR LJQLWH HFRQRPLF WDNHRII DQG VXVWDLQ ORQJUXQ LQFOXVLYH
DQG UHVLOLHQW JURZWK
7KRVH UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGH KXPDQ DQG SROLWLFDO FDSLWDO 7KHUH VKRXOG FRQVHTXHQWO EH
JURXQGV IRU RSWLPLVP ZKHQ LW FRPHV WR DFKLHYLQJ WKH 6'*V IURP WKH ULVH RYHU UHFHQW
GHFDGHV LQ ERWK HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW DV PHDVXUHG E HDUV RI HGXFDWLRQ DQG
GHPRFUDWLF JRYHUQDQFH 7KH FURVVFRXQWU DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI HDUV RI HGXFDWLRQ
DWWDLQHG E DGXOW SRSXODWLRQ DOPRVW GRXEOHG EHWZHHQ  DQG  LQFUHDVLQJ IURP
 WR DURXQG
DQG VLJQLILFDQW SURJUHVV KDV EHHQ PDGH WRZDUGV PHHWLQJ WKH 
0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDO WDUJHW IRU SULPDU VFKRRO FRPSOHWLRQ 6RPH KDYH
TXHVWLRQHG KRZHYHU WKH UHDO GHYHORSPHQW LPSDFW RI WKHVH DFKLHYHPHQWV DV PDQ
GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV WRGD KDYH UHDFKHG VLPLODU DYHUDJH HDUV RI HGXFDWLRQ WR WKRVH RI
GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV GHFDGHV DJR EXW DUH VWLOO PXFK SRRUHU WKDQ WKRVH HFRQRPLHV ZHUH
EDFN WKHQ $V D PDWWHU RI IDFW FURVVQDWLRQDO GDWD VKRZ OLWWOH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ
LQFUHDVH LQ HDUV RI HGXFDWLRQ RI WKH ODERXU IRUFH DQG WKH UDWH RI JURZWK RI RXWSXW SHU
ZRUNHU 3ULWFKHWW
$W WKH VDPH WLPH VLQFH WKH FROODSVH RI DXWKRULWDULDQ UHJLPHV LQ 6SDLQ DQG 3RUWXJDO LQ WKH
PLGV PRUH WKDQ VL[W FRXQWULHV KDYH DGRSWHG GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV RQWUDU WR
SUHFHGLQJ SHULRGV RI VSUHDGLQJ RI GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV WKLV VR FDOOHG ´WKLUG ZDYHµ
WRXFKHG DOO RI WKH PDMRU UHJLRQV RI WKH ZRUOG DQG JDLQHG LQFUHDVLQJ SXEOLF VXSSRUW
'HPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV KDYH EHHQ SUHVHQWHG DV WKH SDQDFHD IRU SRYHUW FRUUXSWLRQ DQG
EDG JRYHUQDQFH DQG KDYH UHFHLYHG DQ RYHUZKHOPLQJ DSSURYDO WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG $V
ZLWK HGXFDWLRQ KRZHYHU WKLV IDLWK LQ GHPRFUDF GRHV QRW VHHP HQWLUHO ZHOO SODFHG
HPSLULFDO OLWHUDWXUH LV GLYLGHG RQ WKH WRSLF DQG WKH FXUUHQW GHEDWH VKRZV QR VLJQ RI
FRQVHQVXV RQ WKH PHULWV RI GHPRFUDF DQG LWV HIIHFWV RQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK VHH IRU
H[DPSOH $FHPRJOX HW DO  DQG *ODHVHU HW DO
7KLV SX]]OLQJ HYLGHQFH LQGLFDWHV WKDW GHPRFUDF RU HGXFDWLRQ DORQH DUH LQVXIILFLHQW WR
VXVWDLQ GHYHORSPHQW DQG VXJJHVWV WKH QHHG IRU ORRNLQJ DW KRZ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ
WKHVH WZR ZLGHO UHFRJQL]HG GHYHORSPHQW SLOODUV DIIHFWV WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKH 6WDWH DQG
XOWLPDWHO WKH SURFHVV RI GHYHORSPHQW 7KH OLWHUDWXUH LQ SROLWLFDO VFLHQFH KDV ORQJ DUJXHG
WKDW E SURPRWLQJ VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG UHGXFLQJ XQFHUWDLQW DERXW WKH EHKDYLRXU RI
RWKHUV HGXFDWLRQ VWUHQJWKHQV VRFLDO WUXVW ZKLFK LQ WXUQ LV QHFHVVDU IRU SROLWLFDO
LQVWLWXWLRQV EDVHG RQ WKH SULQFLSOH RI UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ WR RSHUDWH IUXLWIXOO %XW HGXFDWLRQ
FDQ DOVR DWWHQXDWH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQDO SUREOHPV WKDW WKUHDWHQ WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI PRGHUQ
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH GHPRFUDFLHV E HTXLSSLQJ FLWL]HQV ZLWK WKH FRJQLWLYH VNLOOV WKH QHHG WR
VHOHFW DEOH OHDGHUV XQGHUVWDQG WKH LVVXHV XSRQ ZKLFK WKH YRWH DQG UHFRJQL]H
FRUUXSWHG SXEOLF RIILFLDOV
$OWKRXJK WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ HGXFDWLRQ DQG SROLWLFDO UHIRUPV LV E QRZ ZHOO
UHFRJQL]HG VFKRODUV KDYH KDG D KDUG WLPH HVWDEOLVKLQJ LW HPSLULFDOO 8VLQJ FURVV
FRXQWU DQG SDQHO GDWD UHJUHVVLRQV D UHFHQW SDSHU VKRZV WKDW WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ
GHPRFUDF DQG WKH TXDOLW RI JRYHUQPHQW LV SRVLWLYH DQG VWDWLVWLFDOO VLJQLILFDQW RQO LQ
FRXQWULHV ZLWK KLJK OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQ )RUWXQDWR DQG 3DQL]]D
$V D PDWWHU RI IDFW
ϴ
WKH VXFFHVVIXO WUDQVLWLRQV WR GHPRFUDFLHV WKDW WRRN SODFH LQ (DVW $VLD VLQFH WKH HDUO
V KDYH DOO EHHQ SUHFHGHG E PDVVLYH LPSURYHPHQWV LQ HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQWV
7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH RI FULWLFDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV WKDW DUH FXUUHQWO
SXUVXLQJ ERWK SROLWLFDO DQG HGXFDWLRQDO UHIRUPV 'LVFXVVLQJ UHFHQW $IULFDQ HFRQRPLF DQG
LQVWLWXWLRQDO DGYDQFHPHQWV (GZDUG 0LJXHO
KDV DVNHG ZK LQ VRPH $IULFDQ
FRXQWULHV VXFK DV *KDQD GHPRFUDF WRRN URRW RQO LQ WKH V ZKHUHDV HDUOLHU
GHPRFUDWLF H[SHULPHQWV LQ WKH V FROODSVHG ZLWKLQ DQ HOHFWLRQ FFOH RU WZR +H
VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH UDSLG H[SDQVLRQ RI VFKRROLQJ WKDW WRRN SODFH GXULQJ WKH V DQG
V LQ WKH FRQWLQHQW KHOSHG OD WKH IRXQGDWLRQV IRU WKH GHPRFUDWLF SROLWLFDO UHIRUPV WKDW
IROORZHG $QG WKH VDPH VHTXHQFLQJ FKDUDFWHUL]HG WKH VXFFHVVIXO GHPRFUDWLF WUDQVLWLRQV
LQ (DVW $VLD ZKHUH OHVVWKDQGHPRFUDWLF UHJLPHV VXFK DV 3DUN KXQJ +HH·V 5HSXEOLF RI
.RUHD KHDYLO LQYHVWHG LQ HGXFDWLRQ DQG XQGHUWRRN WKH ILUVW VWHSV WR GHPRFUDF RQO
DIWHU HFRQRPLF WDNHRII
(GXFDWLRQ FXWV DFURVV DOO WKH HVVHQWLDO HOHPHQWV RI WKH SRVW GHYHORSPHQW DJHQGD
DQG LV DW WKH FURVVURDGV EHWZHHQ WKH 0'*V ZKLFK H[SLUHG RQ  -DQXDU  DQG WKH
6'*V ZKLFK ZLOO EH SXUVXHG WLOO  *RLQJ EHRQG OLWHUDF DQG QXPHUDF DQG
SURYLGLQJ WKH NQRZOHGJH DQG VNLOOV QHHGHG WR FRQWULEXWH WKRURXJKO WR WKH HFRQRPLF
DQG FLYLF OLIH WR WKH SRSXODFH DW ODUJH ZRXOG KDYH WKH DGGLWLRQDO EHQHILW RI VWUHQJWKHQLQJ
GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG SDYLQJ WKH ZD IRU IXUWKHU UHIRUPV LQ PDQ GHYHORSLQJ
HFRQRPLHV
5HIHUHQFHV
$FHPRJOX ' -RKQVRQ 6 5RELQVRQ - DQG DUHG 3
´,QFRPH DQG 'HPRFUDFµ $PHULFDQ
(FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ
²
)RUWXQDWR 3 DQG 3DQL]]D 8
´'HPRFUDF (GXFDWLRQ DQG WKH 4XDOLW RI *RYHUQPHQWµ
-RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK
²
*ODHVHU ( / /D 3RUWD / /RSH] GH 6LODQHV ) DQG 6KOHLIHU $
´'R ,QVWLWXWLRQV DXVH
*URZWKµ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK
²
0LJXHO (
´$IULFD 8QOHDVKHG ([SODLQLQJ WKH 6HFUHW RI D %HODWHG %RRPµ )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV
²
3ULWFKHWW /
7KH 5HELUWK RI (GXFDWLRQ 6FKRROLQJ $LQ
W /HDUQLQJ %URRNLQJ ,QVWLWXWLRQV 3UHVV
:DVKLQJWRQ '
ϵ
)URP WKLUG ZRUOG WR ILUVW ZRUOG WKH UHOHYDQFH RI H[SHULHQFH VKDULQJ DW WKH
3 FRXUVH IRU 6LQJDSRUH
0DOHU 9LOHH
**DLQLQJ LQGHSHQGHQFH RQ  $XJXVW  ZDV QRW RQ 6LQJDSRUH·V DJHQGD EXW WKH
FRXQWU ZDV IRUFHG WR VHSDUDWH IURP WKH 0DOD 3HQLQVXOD GXH WR SROLWLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV
DPRQJ WKH OHDGHUV %HLQJ D UHVRXUFHOHVV FLW VWDWH ODFNLQJ DQ IRUP RI UHOHYDQW ZRUN
VNLOOV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH PDQ H[SHFWHG 6LQJDSRUH WR IDLO IURP WKH YHU EHJLQQLQJ
+RZHYHU WKH VWRU WXUQHG RXW WR EH YHU GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH YDULRXV SUHGLFWLRQV RI
HFRQRPLF IDLOXUH
6RXQG HFRQRPLF SROLF PDNLQJ ZDV DW WKH WRS RI WKH DJHQGD DV HDUO DV LQ WKH V DQG
V 2ULJLQDOO DQ LPSRUW GHSHQGHQW QDWLRQ 6LQJDSRUH HPEDUNHG RQ H[SRUW
GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DQG WKLV OHG WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK MRE FUHDWLRQ DQG LPSURYHG
VWDQGDUGV RI OLYLQJ 5HOLDQFH RQ IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW ZDV QRW HYLGHQW IRU DOO WR IROORZ
EXW ZDV FRQWH[WXDOLVHG VXFFHVVIXOO WR WKH LQGXVWU DQG LQYHVWRU QHHGV $V LQYHVWPHQW
EHFDPH D PDMRU WRSLF OLQNHG WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKH 3 SURJUDPPH SURYLGHG DQ
RSSRUWXQLW IRU WKH 6LQJDSRUH H[SHUWV WR VKDUH WKHLU FRXQWU·V XQLTXH H[SHULHQFH DV RQH
RI WKH WRS LQYHVWRU GHVWLQDWLRQ LQ WKH UHJLRQ :LWK D SUHVHQFH RI RYHU  PXOWLQDWLRQDO
HQWHUSULVHV 01(V
LQ 6LQJDSRUH LW LV DOVR LPSHUDWLYH IRU WKH LQYHVWPHQW SURPRWLRQ
RIILFHUV WR DGMXVW SHUPDQHQWO WKH SROLF IUDPHZRUN DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH GQDPLFV RI JOREDO
PDUNHW FRQGLWLRQV 7KLV LV ZKDW LW WDNHV IRU D UHVRXUFHOHVV FRXQWU WR DFKLHYH LQYHVWPHQW
WDUJHWV
KDOOHQJHV DUH PDQ IRU D VPDOO QDWLRQ OLNH 6LQJDSRUH 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV D FRUH DUHD RI
HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHV WR EHWWHU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO
GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU (YHQ DV D WLQ UHG GRW 6LQJDSRUH KDV PDQDJHG WR PDLQWDLQ LWV VWDWXV DV
WKH VHFRQG ODUJHVW FRQWDLQHU WUDQVKLSPHQW VHUYLFH SURYLGHU LQ WKH ZRUOG 2YHU  SHU
FHQW RI DOO LPSRUWV DUH UHH[SRUWHG DQG WKLV FUHDWHV D YLEUDQW EXVLQHVV HQYLURQPHQW IRU
WKH VHUYLFHV VHFWRU ZKLFK DV RI WRGD LQFOXGHV RYHU  ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV WUDGH
VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV DQG KLJKO VRSKLVWLFDWHG ULVN PDQDJHPHQW H[SHUWV ,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG
WKDW ZLWK JRRG JRYHUQDQFH DQG D UXOHVEDVHG VVWHP 6LQJDSRUH·V WRWDO PHUFKDQGLVH
WUDGH KDV FRQVWDQWO H[FHHGHG 6  ELOOLRQ VLQFH  ,Q DGGLWLRQ SURJUDPPHV
LQWURGXFHG WR VXSSRUW JOREDO WUDGHUV KDYH FUHDWHG D FULWLFDO PDVV RI ORJLVWLFV DQG VXSSO
FKDLQ PDQDJHPHQW FRPSDQLHV 2IIVKRUH WUDGH ZDV UHFRUGHG DW 86  ELOOLRQ EHWZHHQ
 DQG  1HHGOHVV WR VD LPSURYHPHQW RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LV D WRS SULRULW IRU
6LQJDSRUH 7KH ILQDQFLQJ DVSHFW RI PHJDSURMHFWV LV FDUHIXOO VFUXWLQL]HG WR HQVXUH WKDW
WKH EHVW UHVXOWV DUH DFKLHYHG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO DXGLWRUV DUH DSSRLQWHG WR SURYLGH FRQWLQXRXV
VXJJHVWLRQV IRU XSGDWHV DQG UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV RQ EXGJHWLQJ
(QWUHSUHQHXUVKLS DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VPDOO DQG PHGLXP HQWHUSULVHV 60(V
KDYH
JDLQHG LPSRUWDQFH RYHU WKH HDUV +RZHYHU WKLV ZDV QRW DQ HDV DUHD IRU WKH
JRYHUQPHQW DV LW FRXOG EH DOZDV DUJXHG WKDW LQ WKH VKRUWHU UXQ 01(V SURYLGH JUHDWHU
YDOXH WR WKH HFRQRP WKDQ 60(V 3HUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUHV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG WR PRQLWRU WKH
JURZWK DQG FRQWULEXWLRQ RI 60(V WR WKH HFRQRP :KHWKHU WR IXQG RU QRW WKH JURZWK RI
60(V ZDV D GLOHPPD GLVFXVVHG LQ 6LQJDSRUH LQ WKH SDVW 6RPH RI WKH EHVW FRPSDQLHV

7KH DXWKRU RI WKLV HVVD LV JUDWHIXO WR 0U 0RKDQ 3DQLFNHU IRU GUDZLQJ KHU DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH
LPSRUWDQFH RI IRFXVLQJ WKH SROLF IUDPHZRUN DQG WR WKH FKDOOHQJHV RI 60( GHYHORSPHQW DQG
LQQRYDWLRQ
ϭϬ
VXFK DV UHDWLYH 7HFKQRORJLHV ODXQFKHG WKHLU LQLWLDO OLVWLQJ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV UDWKHU
WKDQ LQ 6LQJDSRUH 7KLV OHG WR WKH JRYHUQPHQW LQLWLDWLQJ D FRPPLWWHH WR GHYHORS D PDVWHU
SODQ EDVHG RQ 817$'·V 60( DVVLVWDQFH IUDPHZRUN 2YHU WKH HDUV LW ZDV PRGLILHG
IURP WKH LQLWLDO PDVWHU SODQ WR D PRUH FRPSDQFHQWULF DVVLVWDQFH 1RZ ZH GR QRW IROORZ
D PDVWHUSODQ :H KDYH FUHDWHG D XQLTXH VVWHP ZKLFK LV SXUHO EDVHG RQ 60( QHHGV
6XFFHVV FDQ EH PHDVXUHG E WKH IDFW WKDW WKHUH DUH DERXW  60(V FRQWULEXWLQJ WR
 SHU FHQW RI WKH HPSORPHQW
7R PDLQWDLQ D YLEUDQW EXVLQHVV FRPPXQLW QDWLRQDO OHDGHUV QHHG WR LQWURGXFH FRQVWDQW
FKDQJH LQ SROLFLHV DQG IUDPHZRUNV ,Q WKLV DUHD 6LQJDSRUH KDV GUDZQ OHVVRQV IURP RWKHU
HFRQRPLHV DQG WKH UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG E 817$' $ QHZ FKDOOHQJLQJ DUHD LV
LQQRYDWLRQ ZKHUH 6LQJDSRUH LV FXUUHQWO H[SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK D QXPEHU RI SURFHVVHV DQG
SURMHFW IXQGLQJ 7KHUH KDYH EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO SURGXFW GHYHORSPHQWV DQG VRPH IDLOXUHV
WRR 7KH FRPPHUFLDOL]DWLRQ RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ VWLOO FRQWLQXHV WR EH D FKDOOHQJH LQ 6LQJDSRUH
+HQFH D QHZ IUDPHZRUN ZDV LQWURGXFHG LQ -DQXDU  ZLWK D IXQGLQJ RI 6  ELOOLRQ
IRU WKH QH[W  HDUV 817$'·V 3 SODWIRUP KDV JLYHQ 6LQJDSRUH WKH RSSRUWXQLW WR
VKDUH DQG OHDUQ IURP GLVWLQJXLVKHG H[SHUWV DQG GHOHJDWHV
ϭϭ
,V FDSDFLWEXLOGLQJ IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH ULJKW GLUHFWLRQ
0DULD $OHMDQGUD *RQ]DOH]3HUH]
$$IWHU VWHDG HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG SROLWLFDO KHDOWK VLQFH WKH HDUO V GXULQJ 
HYHU PDMRU HFRQRP LQ /DWLQ $PHULFD DQG WKH DULEEHDQ VORZHG GRZQ RU VOXPSHG ,W
ZDV REVHUYHG WKDW /DWLQ $PHULFDQ FXUUHQFLHV ZHUH GHHSO KXUW E IDOOLQJ FRPPRGLW
SULFHV XUUHQFLHV RI FRXQWULHV VXFK DV WKH %ROLYDULDQ 5HSXEOLF RI 9HQH]XHOD RORPELD
DQG %UD]LO UHDFKHG WKHLU ORZHVW SRLQWV LQ  VLQFH  7KLV KDV GUDPDWLFDOO LQFUHDVHG
SURGXFWLRQ FRVWV GXH KLJK FRVW RI LPSRUWV
QHJDWLYHO DIIHFWLQJ ERWK H[SRUW DQG LPSRUW
EDVHG HFRQRPLF PRGHOV DQG FRQVHTXHQWO DIIHFWLQJ WKH DOUHDG QRW VR FOHDU FRPSHWLWLYH
DGYDQWDJH RI WKH UHJLRQ %  PRVW HPHUJLQJ DQG GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV ZKLFK LQ
WKH SUHYLRXV HDUV KDG H[SHULHQFHG UREXVW JURZWK LQ PRVW RI WKHLU HFRQRPLF LQGLFDWRUV
KDYH VWDUWHG WR UHDOL]H WKDW WKH UHFHQW SRVLWLYH EHKDYLRXU RI WKHLU HFRQRPLHV ZRXOG QRW EH
VXVWDLQHG IRUHYHU DQG VRPHWLPHV IRU UHDVRQV RXWVLGH WKH FRQWURO RI WKH SROLF PDNHU 7R
DGDSW WR WKLV VLWXDWLRQ DQG WR PDLQWDLQ SURJUHVV WKHUH LV D QHHG IRU LQFUHDVLQJ FDSDFLW
EXLOGLQJ LQ ERWK SHRSOH DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR DGDSW UHVSRQVHV WR DQ HYHU LQFUHDVLQJ
FRPSOH[ DQG GQDPLF JOREDO VFHQDULR
RXSOHG ZLWK WKDW UHDOLW DQG SHUKDSV DV D UHVXOW RI LW
GXULQJ  VHYHUDO FRXQWULHV LQ
WKH HQWLUH ZRUOG DUH IDFLQJ SROLWLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FKDOOHQJHV 7KH WU WR LGHQWLI DQG
IROORZ D VXVWDLQDEOH DQG LQFOXVLYH GHYHORSPHQW SDWK 7KLV GRHV QRW RQO LPSO WKH
DOLJQPHQW RI WKH GHVLJQ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ PRQLWRULQJ DQG PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH QDWLRQDO
HFRQRPLF SROLWLFDO VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQWDO WUDGH WHFKQRORJ ILQDQFH DQG LQYHVWPHQW
SROLFLHV WR WKH VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW DJHQGD RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV IRU ² EXW
DOVR UHTXLUHV WKH VWUHQJWKHQLQJ RI LQVWLWXWLRQDO FDSDFLWLHV WR LGHQWLI DQG VROYH HFRQRPLF
DQG VRFLDO SUREOHPV
0HFKDQLVPV HQKDQFLQJ HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO GHYHORSPHQW OHG E PXOWLODWHUDO
RUJDQL]DWLRQV VXFK DV WKH IODJVKLS FRXUVH FUHDWHG XQGHU WKH PDQGDWH RI 3DUDJUDSK 
3
RI WKH %DQJNRN 3ODQ RI $FWLRQ DGRSWHG E 817$'·V PHPEHUV LQ  DUH
LQVWUXPHQWDO IRU WKH EXLOGLQJ RI FDSDFLWLHV IRU NH SHRSOH DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV LQ WKH
GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG 2YHU WKH HDUV WKH 3 KDV SURYHQ WR IDFLOLWDWH OHDUQLQJ IRU
SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ WHUPV RI SROLF DQDOVLV SROLF PDNLQJ SROLFLHV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI NH DFWRUV DQG PHDQV RI LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH 3 RIIHUV
SDUWLFLSDQWV WKH RSSRUWXQLW IRU LQWHUDFWLQJ ZLWK SHHUV IURP FRXQWULHV ZLWK VLPLODU
LQVWLWXWLRQDO IHDWXUHV XQGHUVWDQGLQJ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG FRQGLWLRQV LQFUHDVLQJ WHFKQLFDO
FRPSHWHQFHV IRU HIIHFWLYH VROXWLRQV LGHQWLILQJ WUDQVIHUDEOH NQRZKRZ DQG WRROV IRU
DGGUHVVLQJ FKDOOHQJHV $GGLWLRQDOO WKH 3 GRHV SURYLGH D VXLWDEOH VSDFH IRU
GHYHORSLQJ SHUVRQDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV LQ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV $V LW ZDV SUHVHQWHG E RQH RI
WKH FRXQWU UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV LQ WKH 817$'·V 3 UHJLRQDO FRXUVH LQ  IRU /DWLQ
$PHULFD DQG WKH DULEEHDQ KHOG LQ 0HGHOOtQ RORPELD

More Related Content

What's hot

1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
autobombo
 
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
lavanter simamora
 
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
autobombo
 
Uno Ovarios, Ogro
Uno Ovarios, OgroUno Ovarios, Ogro
Uno Ovarios, Ogro
autobombo
 
Mi 16 Cumpleaños
Mi 16 CumpleañosMi 16 Cumpleaños
Mi 16 Cumpleaños
autobombo
 

What's hot (18)

28 35 tratado psicologia revolucionaria www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 35 tratado psicologia revolucionaria www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org28 35 tratado psicologia revolucionaria www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 35 tratado psicologia revolucionaria www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
 
1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
1r Congreso De Patagénesis, Actas
 
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
In tech competence-based_curriculum_development_in_higher_education_a_globali...
 
28 19 la muerte mistica hdean www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 19 la muerte mistica hdean www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org28 19 la muerte mistica hdean www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 19 la muerte mistica hdean www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
 
28 04 comenzando a despertar www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 04 comenzando a despertar  www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org28 04 comenzando a despertar  www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 04 comenzando a despertar www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
 
FORMULA LIST FOR PHYSICS
FORMULA LIST FOR PHYSICSFORMULA LIST FOR PHYSICS
FORMULA LIST FOR PHYSICS
 
Situaciones problemas
Situaciones problemasSituaciones problemas
Situaciones problemas
 
Mappe
MappeMappe
Mappe
 
Pdf Llengua Valenciana
Pdf Llengua ValencianaPdf Llengua Valenciana
Pdf Llengua Valenciana
 
Cuadernos completo
 Cuadernos completo Cuadernos completo
Cuadernos completo
 
28 32 primeros pasos www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 32 primeros pasos www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org28 32 primeros pasos www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 32 primeros pasos www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
 
Sb8.2Sparkbright.
Sb8.2Sparkbright.Sb8.2Sparkbright.
Sb8.2Sparkbright.
 
Posizionamento nei motori di ricerca - Tutto quello che gli altri non ti dicono
Posizionamento nei motori di ricerca - Tutto quello che gli altri non ti diconoPosizionamento nei motori di ricerca - Tutto quello che gli altri non ti dicono
Posizionamento nei motori di ricerca - Tutto quello che gli altri non ti dicono
 
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
1ª Antología. Segunda Parte
 
Uno Ovarios, Ogro
Uno Ovarios, OgroUno Ovarios, Ogro
Uno Ovarios, Ogro
 
estadistica
estadisticaestadistica
estadistica
 
28 14 zodiaco www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 14  zodiaco www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org28 14  zodiaco www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
28 14 zodiaco www.gftaognosticaespiritual.org
 
Mi 16 Cumpleaños
Mi 16 CumpleañosMi 16 Cumpleaños
Mi 16 Cumpleaños
 

Similar to Economic development in a changing world

SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
Stefan Du Toit
 
eNewsletter sample
eNewsletter sampleeNewsletter sample
eNewsletter sample
Elisa Smith
 
Teaching of social science
Teaching  of social scienceTeaching  of social science
Teaching of social science
AncySherin1
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
taishang3939
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
ruan49549560
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
fujskekdmmd
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
ruan49549560
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
pugangjia7703
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
fujskekdmmd
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
pugangjia7703
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
taishang3939
 
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
CIDAADS
 
Sql server firewall settings
Sql server firewall settingsSql server firewall settings
Sql server firewall settings
gabo2525
 

Similar to Economic development in a changing world (20)

Toxic Tech - The Dangerous Chemicals in Electronic Products
Toxic Tech - The Dangerous Chemicals in Electronic ProductsToxic Tech - The Dangerous Chemicals in Electronic Products
Toxic Tech - The Dangerous Chemicals in Electronic Products
 
Rover c ii new edition tomb and grave detector - copy
Rover c ii new edition   tomb and grave detector - copyRover c ii new edition   tomb and grave detector - copy
Rover c ii new edition tomb and grave detector - copy
 
Rover c ii new edition tomb and grave detector
Rover c ii new edition   tomb and grave detectorRover c ii new edition   tomb and grave detector
Rover c ii new edition tomb and grave detector
 
Asset basedsf
Asset basedsfAsset basedsf
Asset basedsf
 
Vf s9 manual
Vf s9 manualVf s9 manual
Vf s9 manual
 
Wealth and Happiness, Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
Wealth and Happiness, Empirical Evidence from IndonesiaWealth and Happiness, Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
Wealth and Happiness, Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
 
SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
SAJBM 45(4) - Desember 2014
 
eNewsletter sample
eNewsletter sampleeNewsletter sample
eNewsletter sample
 
Teaching of social science
Teaching  of social scienceTeaching  of social science
Teaching of social science
 
Lessons from ligatt from national cyber security nationalcybersecurity com
Lessons from ligatt   from national cyber security nationalcybersecurity comLessons from ligatt   from national cyber security nationalcybersecurity com
Lessons from ligatt from national cyber security nationalcybersecurity com
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual.pdf
 
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN260 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdfNew Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
New Holland VN240 Grape Harvester Service Repair Manual Instant Download.pdf
 
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
Electricidaads - A importância dos Museus como Lugares de Aprendizagem - Joaq...
 
Sql server firewall settings
Sql server firewall settingsSql server firewall settings
Sql server firewall settings
 

More from Ira Kristina Lumban Tobing

More from Ira Kristina Lumban Tobing (20)

Introduction to the Psychology of International Cooperation Seventeen motivat...
Introduction to the Psychology of International Cooperation Seventeen motivat...Introduction to the Psychology of International Cooperation Seventeen motivat...
Introduction to the Psychology of International Cooperation Seventeen motivat...
 
State of commodity dependance 2019
State of commodity dependance 2019State of commodity dependance 2019
State of commodity dependance 2019
 
UNCTAD ¬ cocoa study industry structures and competition
UNCTAD ¬ cocoa study industry structures and competitionUNCTAD ¬ cocoa study industry structures and competition
UNCTAD ¬ cocoa study industry structures and competition
 
Cocoa ¬ a guide to trade practices of ITC. #NeedToSaveThis
Cocoa ¬   a guide to trade practices of ITC. #NeedToSaveThisCocoa ¬   a guide to trade practices of ITC. #NeedToSaveThis
Cocoa ¬ a guide to trade practices of ITC. #NeedToSaveThis
 
CHOCOLATE GREENWASHING
CHOCOLATE GREENWASHINGCHOCOLATE GREENWASHING
CHOCOLATE GREENWASHING
 
Study on the costs, advantages and disadvantages of cocoa certification commi...
Study on the costs, advantages and disadvantages of cocoa certification commi...Study on the costs, advantages and disadvantages of cocoa certification commi...
Study on the costs, advantages and disadvantages of cocoa certification commi...
 
A Guide to traceAbility A Practical Approach to Advance Sustainability in Glo...
A Guide to traceAbility A Practical Approach to Advance Sustainability in Glo...A Guide to traceAbility A Practical Approach to Advance Sustainability in Glo...
A Guide to traceAbility A Practical Approach to Advance Sustainability in Glo...
 
IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF STRATEGIES IN ENTERING THE INDIAN MA...
IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF STRATEGIES IN ENTERING THE INDIAN MA...IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF STRATEGIES IN ENTERING THE INDIAN MA...
IDENTIFICATION OF KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF STRATEGIES IN ENTERING THE INDIAN MA...
 
Analysis of Cocoa Beans Processing And Quality in Post Harvest in South East ...
Analysis of Cocoa Beans Processing And Quality in Post Harvest in South East ...Analysis of Cocoa Beans Processing And Quality in Post Harvest in South East ...
Analysis of Cocoa Beans Processing And Quality in Post Harvest in South East ...
 
STRATEGI PEMBANGUNAN DAYA SAING INDUSTRI DALAM NEGERI MENGHADAPI ACFTA
STRATEGI PEMBANGUNAN DAYA SAING INDUSTRI DALAM NEGERI MENGHADAPI ACFTASTRATEGI PEMBANGUNAN DAYA SAING INDUSTRI DALAM NEGERI MENGHADAPI ACFTA
STRATEGI PEMBANGUNAN DAYA SAING INDUSTRI DALAM NEGERI MENGHADAPI ACFTA
 
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ LG Electronic Global Strategy in Em...
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~  LG Electronic Global Strategy in Em...Marketing Management Course Assignment ~  LG Electronic Global Strategy in Em...
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ LG Electronic Global Strategy in Em...
 
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Brand In the Hand ADIDAS
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~  Brand In the Hand  ADIDASMarketing Management Course Assignment ~  Brand In the Hand  ADIDAS
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Brand In the Hand ADIDAS
 
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Dove Evolution of a Brand
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~  Dove Evolution of a BrandMarketing Management Course Assignment ~  Dove Evolution of a Brand
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Dove Evolution of a Brand
 
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Moods of Norway
Marketing Management Course Assignment  ~  Moods of NorwayMarketing Management Course Assignment  ~  Moods of Norway
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~ Moods of Norway
 
Marketing management course assignment ~Marcks and Spencer plan a
Marketing management course assignment   ~Marcks and Spencer plan aMarketing management course assignment   ~Marcks and Spencer plan a
Marketing management course assignment ~Marcks and Spencer plan a
 
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~STARBUCKS
Marketing Management Course Assignment   ~STARBUCKSMarketing Management Course Assignment   ~STARBUCKS
Marketing Management Course Assignment ~STARBUCKS
 
Marketing Management Course Paper Assignment ~LV in India
Marketing Management Course Paper Assignment ~LV in IndiaMarketing Management Course Paper Assignment ~LV in India
Marketing Management Course Paper Assignment ~LV in India
 
Information technology environment ~ ira kristina l. tobing
Information technology environment ~ ira kristina l. tobingInformation technology environment ~ ira kristina l. tobing
Information technology environment ~ ira kristina l. tobing
 
Governmental environment ~ ir kristina l. tobing
Governmental environment ~ ir kristina l. tobingGovernmental environment ~ ir kristina l. tobing
Governmental environment ~ ir kristina l. tobing
 
Fiscal policy ~ ira kristina l. tobing
Fiscal policy ~ ira kristina l. tobingFiscal policy ~ ira kristina l. tobing
Fiscal policy ~ ira kristina l. tobing
 

Recently uploaded

Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui 087776558899
Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui  087776558899Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui  087776558899
Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui 087776558899
Cara Menggugurkan Kandungan 087776558899
 
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
Klinik kandungan
 
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentationTriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
Adnet Communications
 
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get CytotecAbortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
Abortion pills in Riyadh +966572737505 get cytotec
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdfPension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
 
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
 
asli amil baba bengali black magic kala jadu expert in uk usa canada france c...
asli amil baba bengali black magic kala jadu expert in uk usa canada france c...asli amil baba bengali black magic kala jadu expert in uk usa canada france c...
asli amil baba bengali black magic kala jadu expert in uk usa canada france c...
 
Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui 087776558899
Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui  087776558899Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui  087776558899
Obat Penggugur Kandungan Aman Bagi Ibu Menyusui 087776558899
 
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech BelgiumWebinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
 
Abhay Bhutada: Driving Digital Transformation in NBFC Sector
Abhay Bhutada: Driving Digital Transformation in NBFC SectorAbhay Bhutada: Driving Digital Transformation in NBFC Sector
Abhay Bhutada: Driving Digital Transformation in NBFC Sector
 
fundamentals of corporate finance 11th canadian edition test bank.docx
fundamentals of corporate finance 11th canadian edition test bank.docxfundamentals of corporate finance 11th canadian edition test bank.docx
fundamentals of corporate finance 11th canadian edition test bank.docx
 
No 1 Top Love marriage specialist baba ji amil baba kala ilam powerful vashik...
No 1 Top Love marriage specialist baba ji amil baba kala ilam powerful vashik...No 1 Top Love marriage specialist baba ji amil baba kala ilam powerful vashik...
No 1 Top Love marriage specialist baba ji amil baba kala ilam powerful vashik...
 
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
Jual obat aborsi Jogja ( 085657271886 ) Cytote pil telat bulan penggugur kand...
 
Current scenario of Energy Retail utilities market in UK
Current scenario of Energy Retail utilities market in UKCurrent scenario of Energy Retail utilities market in UK
Current scenario of Energy Retail utilities market in UK
 
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
 
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentationTriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
TriStar Gold- 05-13-2024 corporate presentation
 
Lion One Corporate Presentation May 2024
Lion One Corporate Presentation May 2024Lion One Corporate Presentation May 2024
Lion One Corporate Presentation May 2024
 
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
Certified Kala Jadu, Black magic specialist in Rawalpindi and Bangali Amil ba...
 
Kala jadu specialist in USA (Kala ilam expert in france) Black magic expert i...
Kala jadu specialist in USA (Kala ilam expert in france) Black magic expert i...Kala jadu specialist in USA (Kala ilam expert in france) Black magic expert i...
Kala jadu specialist in USA (Kala ilam expert in france) Black magic expert i...
 
uk-no 1 kala ilam expert specialist in uk and qatar kala ilam expert speciali...
uk-no 1 kala ilam expert specialist in uk and qatar kala ilam expert speciali...uk-no 1 kala ilam expert specialist in uk and qatar kala ilam expert speciali...
uk-no 1 kala ilam expert specialist in uk and qatar kala ilam expert speciali...
 
Black magic specialist in Saudi Arabia (Kala jadu expert in UK) Bangali Amil ...
Black magic specialist in Saudi Arabia (Kala jadu expert in UK) Bangali Amil ...Black magic specialist in Saudi Arabia (Kala jadu expert in UK) Bangali Amil ...
Black magic specialist in Saudi Arabia (Kala jadu expert in UK) Bangali Amil ...
 
Premium Call Girls bhadrachalam 🧿 6378878445 🧿 High Class Call Girl Service A...
Premium Call Girls bhadrachalam 🧿 6378878445 🧿 High Class Call Girl Service A...Premium Call Girls bhadrachalam 🧿 6378878445 🧿 High Class Call Girl Service A...
Premium Call Girls bhadrachalam 🧿 6378878445 🧿 High Class Call Girl Service A...
 
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get CytotecAbortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
Abortion pills in Dammam Saudi Arabia | +966572737505 |Get Cytotec
 
najoomi asli amil baba kala jadu expert rawalpindi bangladesh uk usa
najoomi asli amil baba kala jadu expert rawalpindi bangladesh uk usanajoomi asli amil baba kala jadu expert rawalpindi bangladesh uk usa
najoomi asli amil baba kala jadu expert rawalpindi bangladesh uk usa
 

Economic development in a changing world

  • 1. Economic Development in a Changing World Essays in Honour of Mohan Panicker Geneva, March 2016
  • 2. Ϯ (GLWRU .DOPDQ .DORWD 3URGXFWLRQ PDQDJHU .KDOHG *DDIDU RYHU SDJH 6RSKLH RPEHWWH 7KLV LV QRW D 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV SXEOLFDWLRQ 7KH YLHZV DUH WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRUV DQG GR QRW QHFHVVDULO UHIOHFW WKH RSLQLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
  • 3. ϯ 7$%/( 2) 217(176 3DUW , 'HYHORSPHQW 3ROLFLHV LQ D *OREDOL]LQJ :RUOG 3ROLF VSDFH GH MXUH DQG GH IDFWR FRQVWUDLQWV -|UJ 0DHU 1RW MXVW DQRWKHU EULFN LQ WKH ZDOO PDNLQJ GHPRFUDF DQG HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN IRU VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW 3LHUJLXVHSSH )RUWXQDWR )URP WKLUG ZRUOG WR ILUVW ZRUOG WKH UHOHYDQFH RI H[SHULHQFH VKDULQJ DW WKH 3 FRXUVH IRU 6LQJDSRUH 0DOHU 9LOHH ,V FDSDFLWEXLOGLQJ IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH ULJKW GLUHFWLRQ 0DULD $OHMDQGUD *RQ]DOH]3HUH] 3DUW ,, +DUQHVVLQJ %HQHILWV IURP 7UDGH 7UDGH FRXOG DQG VKRXOG EH DQ HQJLQH RI JURZWK ² ZH MXVW QHHG GLIIHUHQW WUDFNV 0LD 0LNLF $IULFD PXVW EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ LWVHOI LQ WKH UDSLGO FKDQJLQJ ZRUOG WUDGH ODQGVFDSH 6LPRQ 0HYHO 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LQ WKH ()7$ LQWHJUDWLRQ 3UHGUDJ %MHOLü 3DUW ,,, (QKDQFLQJ 3URGXFWLYH DSDFLWLHV RQVHTXHQFHV RI WKH ULVH RI IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW IRU SROLF PDNLQJ .DOPDQ .DORWD DQ ZH FRQWURO RXU WHFKQRORJLFDO IXWXUH 0LFKDHO /LP ,7 IRU GHYHORSPHQW WKH QHHG IRU EUHDNLQJ GRZQ VLORV 7RUEM|UQ )UHGULNVVRQ 3DUW ,9 :KHQ 3HUVRQDO ([SHULHQFH 0HHWV 6FLHQFH +DLUFXWV $Q HPSLULFDO VWXG RQ *$77 DQG *$76 -DQ +RIIPDQQ /LVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV
  • 4. ϰ 3$57 , '(9(/230(17 32/,,(6 ,1 $ */2%$/,=,1* :25/'
  • 5. ϱ 3ROLF VSDFH GH MXUH DQG GH IDFWR FRQVWUDLQWV -|UJ 0DHU 77KH GHEDWH RQ WKH FRQFHSW RI ´SROLF VSDFHµ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´$YDLODELOLWµ UHIHUV WR D QDWLRQ VWDWH·V VRYHUHLJQW WR HPSOR FHUWDLQ SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV LW LV DIIHFWHG E FRQWUDFWXDO GH MXUH
  • 6. DGKHUHQFH WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO UXOHV DQG UHJXODWLRQV ´(IIHFWLYHQHVVµ UHIHUV WR WKH LPSDFW RI GRPHVWLF SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV RQ DFKLHYLQJ QDWLRQDO WDUJHWV LW LV DIIHFWHG E GH IDFWR
  • 7. LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ 7KH PDLQ IDFWRUV WKDW UHGXFH WKH DYDLODELOLW RI SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV LQFOXGH PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV ELODWHUDO DQG UHJLRQDO WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW DJUHHPHQWV FRQGLWLRQDOLW DWWDFKHG WR ORDQ DJUHHPHQWV ZLWK %UHWWRQ :RRGV LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG FRQGLWLRQDOLW DWWDFKHG WR DYDLODELOLW RI DLG 5HGXFHG HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI SROLF LQVWUXPHQWV PD UHVXOW IURP SUHPDWXUH ILQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG WKH SURFFOLFDOLW RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO FDSLWDO IORZV WKH DEVHQFH RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO PRQHWDU DQG ILQDQFLDO GLVFLSOLQHV ZKLFK OHDYHV H[FKDQJHUDWH DQG FDSLWDOIORZ YRODWLOLW XQFRQVWUDLQHG RU H[SDQVLRQDU PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV WKDW WULJJHU LPSRUWV UDWKHU WKDQ FUHDWLQJ GRPHVWLF ZDJH DQG HPSORPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV $W WKH VDPH WLPH LQWHJUDWLRQ HQODUJHV SROLF VSDFH LQ WHUPV RI GH IDFWR FRQWURO EHFDXVH PXOWLODWHUDO UXOHV DQG GLVFLSOLQHV HQDEOH D FRRUGLQDWHG UHVSRQVH WR FURVVERUGHU GLVWXUEDQFHV DQG SUHYHQW SROLFPDNHUV LQ FRXQWULHV WKDW KDYH D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO ODUJH LPSDFW RQ WKH HYROXWLRQ RI RWKHU HFRQRPLHV IURP DGRSWLQJ GLVFULPLQDWRU RU EHJJDUWK QHLJKERXU SROLFLHV )RU H[DPSOH FROOHFWLYH WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ VHFXUHV UHFLSURFDO PDUNHW DFFHVV ZKLOH XQLODWHUDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ PD FDXVH EDODQFHRISDPHQWV DQG HPSORPHQW SUREOHPV $QG UXOHVEDVHG VRYHUHLJQ GHEW VWDQGVWLOOV DQG RUGHUO ZRUNRXWV LQFUHDVH WKH SUHGLFWDELOLW DQG WLPHO UHVWUXFWXULQJ RI GHEW ZKHQ UHTXLUHG :KLOH GH IDFWR LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR LQWHUQDWLRQDO PDUNHWV UHGXFHV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV LW FDQ LPSURYH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI PDQ VWUXFWXUDO SROLFLHV WKDW DUH RI FUXFLDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ,QFUHDVLQJ UHWXUQV WR VFDOH RQ DQ LQGXVWUZLGH EDVLV DQG HQKDQFHG WHFKQRORJLFDO XSJUDGLQJ DUH WKH WZR PDLQ FKDQQHOV WKDW FRPSDUHG WR SROLFLHV LQ FORVHG HFRQRPLHV PDNH RXWZDUGRULHQWHG SROLFLHV PRUH HIIHFWLYH LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ FRPSHWLWLYH LQGXVWULHV WKXV LPSURYLQJ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO VHFWRUDO DQG WHFKQRORJ SROLFLHV 7HFKQRORJLFDO XSJUDGLQJ LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV RIWHQ GHSHQGV RQ WKH DYDLODELOLW RI IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJLHV HPERGLHG LQ LPSRUWHG FDSLWDO JRRGV SDUWLFXODUO GXULQJ WKH LQLWLDO VWDJHV RI LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ (FRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ IDFLOLWDWHV DFFHVV WR IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJLHV DQG WKH IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH HDUQHG IURP H[SRUWLQJ DOOHYLDWHV WKH EDODQFHRISDPHQWV FRQVWUDLQW %RWK WKHVH 7KH DXWKRU JUDWHIXOO DFNQRZOHGJHV 0RKDQ 3DQLFNHU·V HQFRXUDJHPHQW WR FRQYH WKLV LGHD WR SROLFPDNHUV WKURXJK 817$'·V 3DUDJUDSK FRXUVH WKDW KH FRRUGLQDWHG IRU PDQ HDUV
  • 8. ϲ PHFKDQLVPV FRPELQH WR UHLQIRUFH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI D FRXQWU·V VHFWRUDO DQG WHFKQRORJ SROLFLHV WR EXLOG SURGXFWLYH FDSDFLW DQG VSXU SURGXFWLYLW JURZWK 5HJDUGLQJ ILQDQFLDO LQWHJUDWLRQ DFFHVV WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV HQDEOHV GRPHVWLF ILUPV WR ILQDQFH LQYHVWPHQW DW LQWHUQDWLRQDOO FRPSHWLWLYH FRQGLWLRQV ZKLFK LQFUHDVHV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO LQYHVWPHQW SROLFLHV 7KLV LOOXVWUDWHV WKDW WKH WHQVLRQ EHWZHHQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SROLF VSDFH LV DIIHFWHG E VHYHUDO IRUFHV WKDW SXOO LQ RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQV +RZHYHU WKHUH LV QR TXDQWLILDEOH VLQJOH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ PXOWLODWHUDO GLVFLSOLQHV DQG QDWLRQDO SROLF DXWRQRP WKDW VXLWV DOO FRXQWULHV RU DSSOLHV DFURVV DOO VSKHUHV RI HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW 7KH PDWXULW RI D FRXQWU·V LQVWLWXWLRQDO GHYHORSPHQW WKH VXVWDLQDELOLW RI LWV H[WHUQDO DFFRXQWV LWV HFRQRPLF VL]H DQG SDWWHUQ RI GRPHVWLF SURGXFWLRQ ZLOO LQIOXHQFH WKH LPSDFW RI LWV LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ RQ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI QDWLRQDO SROLFLHV 6LPLODUO DW DQ OHYHO RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW D FRXQWU·V RSWLPDO GHJUHH RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LV OLNHO WR GLIIHU DFURVV GLIIHUHQW VSKHUHV VXFK DV WUDGH LQYHVWPHQW ILQDQFH ODERXU DQG WHFKQRORJ )RU H[DPSOH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D IXQFWLRQLQJ GRPHVWLF ILQDQFLDO PDUNHW DQG SULRU LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR LQWHUQDWLRQDO JRRGV PDUNHWV DUH OLNHO WR EH VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRUV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH LPSDFW RI D FRXQWU·V FDSLWDO PDUNHW LQWHJUDWLRQ RQ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI LWV PRQHWDU DQG ILQDQFLDO SROLFLHV +HQFH ZKHWKHU LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV RU UHGXFHV QDWLRQDO SROLF VSDFH LV DQ HPSLULFDO TXHVWLRQ IRU HDFK FRXQWU DQG IRU HDFK WSH RI LQWHJUDWLRQ
  • 9. ϳ 1RW MXVW DQRWKHU EULFN LQ WKH ZDOO PDNLQJ GHPRFUDF DQG HGXFDWLRQ ZRUN IRU VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW 3LHUJLXVHSSH )RUWXQDWR 77KH VXFFHVV RI WKH 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV 6'*V
  •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
  •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
  • 12. $W WKH VDPH WLPH VLQFH WKH FROODSVH RI DXWKRULWDULDQ UHJLPHV LQ 6SDLQ DQG 3RUWXJDO LQ WKH PLGV PRUH WKDQ VL[W FRXQWULHV KDYH DGRSWHG GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV RQWUDU WR SUHFHGLQJ SHULRGV RI VSUHDGLQJ RI GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV WKLV VR FDOOHG ´WKLUG ZDYHµ WRXFKHG DOO RI WKH PDMRU UHJLRQV RI WKH ZRUOG DQG JDLQHG LQFUHDVLQJ SXEOLF VXSSRUW 'HPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV KDYH EHHQ SUHVHQWHG DV WKH SDQDFHD IRU SRYHUW FRUUXSWLRQ DQG EDG JRYHUQDQFH DQG KDYH UHFHLYHG DQ RYHUZKHOPLQJ DSSURYDO WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG $V ZLWK HGXFDWLRQ KRZHYHU WKLV IDLWK LQ GHPRFUDF GRHV QRW VHHP HQWLUHO ZHOO SODFHG HPSLULFDO OLWHUDWXUH LV GLYLGHG RQ WKH WRSLF DQG WKH FXUUHQW GHEDWH VKRZV QR VLJQ RI FRQVHQVXV RQ WKH PHULWV RI GHPRFUDF DQG LWV HIIHFWV RQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK VHH IRU H[DPSOH $FHPRJOX HW DO DQG *ODHVHU HW DO
  •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
  • 14. $V D PDWWHU RI IDFW
  • 15. ϴ WKH VXFFHVVIXO WUDQVLWLRQV WR GHPRFUDFLHV WKDW WRRN SODFH LQ (DVW $VLD VLQFH WKH HDUO V KDYH DOO EHHQ SUHFHGHG E PDVVLYH LPSURYHPHQWV LQ HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQWV 7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH RI FULWLFDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV WKDW DUH FXUUHQWO SXUVXLQJ ERWK SROLWLFDO DQG HGXFDWLRQDO UHIRUPV 'LVFXVVLQJ UHFHQW $IULFDQ HFRQRPLF DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO DGYDQFHPHQWV (GZDUG 0LJXHO
  • 16. KDV DVNHG ZK LQ VRPH $IULFDQ FRXQWULHV VXFK DV *KDQD GHPRFUDF WRRN URRW RQO LQ WKH V ZKHUHDV HDUOLHU GHPRFUDWLF H[SHULPHQWV LQ WKH V FROODSVHG ZLWKLQ DQ HOHFWLRQ FFOH RU WZR +H VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH UDSLG H[SDQVLRQ RI VFKRROLQJ WKDW WRRN SODFH GXULQJ WKH V DQG V LQ WKH FRQWLQHQW KHOSHG OD WKH IRXQGDWLRQV IRU WKH GHPRFUDWLF SROLWLFDO UHIRUPV WKDW IROORZHG $QG WKH VDPH VHTXHQFLQJ FKDUDFWHUL]HG WKH VXFFHVVIXO GHPRFUDWLF WUDQVLWLRQV LQ (DVW $VLD ZKHUH OHVVWKDQGHPRFUDWLF UHJLPHV VXFK DV 3DUN KXQJ +HH·V 5HSXEOLF RI .RUHD KHDYLO LQYHVWHG LQ HGXFDWLRQ DQG XQGHUWRRN WKH ILUVW VWHSV WR GHPRFUDF RQO DIWHU HFRQRPLF WDNHRII (GXFDWLRQ FXWV DFURVV DOO WKH HVVHQWLDO HOHPHQWV RI WKH SRVW GHYHORSPHQW DJHQGD DQG LV DW WKH FURVVURDGV EHWZHHQ WKH 0'*V ZKLFK H[SLUHG RQ -DQXDU DQG WKH 6'*V ZKLFK ZLOO EH SXUVXHG WLOO *RLQJ EHRQG OLWHUDF DQG QXPHUDF DQG SURYLGLQJ WKH NQRZOHGJH DQG VNLOOV QHHGHG WR FRQWULEXWH WKRURXJKO WR WKH HFRQRPLF DQG FLYLF OLIH WR WKH SRSXODFH DW ODUJH ZRXOG KDYH WKH DGGLWLRQDO EHQHILW RI VWUHQJWKHQLQJ GHPRFUDWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG SDYLQJ WKH ZD IRU IXUWKHU UHIRUPV LQ PDQ GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV 5HIHUHQFHV $FHPRJOX ' -RKQVRQ 6 5RELQVRQ - DQG DUHG 3
  • 17. ´,QFRPH DQG 'HPRFUDFµ $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ
  • 18. ² )RUWXQDWR 3 DQG 3DQL]]D 8
  • 19. ´'HPRFUDF (GXFDWLRQ DQG WKH 4XDOLW RI *RYHUQPHQWµ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK
  • 20. ² *ODHVHU ( / /D 3RUWD / /RSH] GH 6LODQHV ) DQG 6KOHLIHU $
  • 21. ´'R ,QVWLWXWLRQV DXVH *URZWKµ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK
  • 23. ´$IULFD 8QOHDVKHG ([SODLQLQJ WKH 6HFUHW RI D %HODWHG %RRPµ )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV
  • 25. 7KH 5HELUWK RI (GXFDWLRQ 6FKRROLQJ $LQ W /HDUQLQJ %URRNLQJ ,QVWLWXWLRQV 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ '
  • 26. ϵ )URP WKLUG ZRUOG WR ILUVW ZRUOG WKH UHOHYDQFH RI H[SHULHQFH VKDULQJ DW WKH 3 FRXUVH IRU 6LQJDSRUH 0DOHU 9LOHH **DLQLQJ LQGHSHQGHQFH RQ $XJXVW ZDV QRW RQ 6LQJDSRUH·V DJHQGD EXW WKH FRXQWU ZDV IRUFHG WR VHSDUDWH IURP WKH 0DOD 3HQLQVXOD GXH WR SROLWLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ WKH OHDGHUV %HLQJ D UHVRXUFHOHVV FLW VWDWH ODFNLQJ DQ IRUP RI UHOHYDQW ZRUN VNLOOV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH PDQ H[SHFWHG 6LQJDSRUH WR IDLO IURP WKH YHU EHJLQQLQJ +RZHYHU WKH VWRU WXUQHG RXW WR EH YHU GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH YDULRXV SUHGLFWLRQV RI HFRQRPLF IDLOXUH 6RXQG HFRQRPLF SROLF PDNLQJ ZDV DW WKH WRS RI WKH DJHQGD DV HDUO DV LQ WKH V DQG V 2ULJLQDOO DQ LPSRUW GHSHQGHQW QDWLRQ 6LQJDSRUH HPEDUNHG RQ H[SRUW GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DQG WKLV OHG WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK MRE FUHDWLRQ DQG LPSURYHG VWDQGDUGV RI OLYLQJ 5HOLDQFH RQ IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW ZDV QRW HYLGHQW IRU DOO WR IROORZ EXW ZDV FRQWH[WXDOLVHG VXFFHVVIXOO WR WKH LQGXVWU DQG LQYHVWRU QHHGV $V LQYHVWPHQW EHFDPH D PDMRU WRSLF OLQNHG WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKH 3 SURJUDPPH SURYLGHG DQ RSSRUWXQLW IRU WKH 6LQJDSRUH H[SHUWV WR VKDUH WKHLU FRXQWU·V XQLTXH H[SHULHQFH DV RQH RI WKH WRS LQYHVWRU GHVWLQDWLRQ LQ WKH UHJLRQ :LWK D SUHVHQFH RI RYHU PXOWLQDWLRQDO HQWHUSULVHV 01(V
  • 27. LQ 6LQJDSRUH LW LV DOVR LPSHUDWLYH IRU WKH LQYHVWPHQW SURPRWLRQ RIILFHUV WR DGMXVW SHUPDQHQWO WKH SROLF IUDPHZRUN DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH GQDPLFV RI JOREDO PDUNHW FRQGLWLRQV 7KLV LV ZKDW LW WDNHV IRU D UHVRXUFHOHVV FRXQWU WR DFKLHYH LQYHVWPHQW WDUJHWV KDOOHQJHV DUH PDQ IRU D VPDOO QDWLRQ OLNH 6LQJDSRUH 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV D FRUH DUHD RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHV WR EHWWHU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU (YHQ DV D WLQ UHG GRW 6LQJDSRUH KDV PDQDJHG WR PDLQWDLQ LWV VWDWXV DV WKH VHFRQG ODUJHVW FRQWDLQHU WUDQVKLSPHQW VHUYLFH SURYLGHU LQ WKH ZRUOG 2YHU SHU FHQW RI DOO LPSRUWV DUH UHH[SRUWHG DQG WKLV FUHDWHV D YLEUDQW EXVLQHVV HQYLURQPHQW IRU WKH VHUYLFHV VHFWRU ZKLFK DV RI WRGD LQFOXGHV RYHU ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV WUDGH VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV DQG KLJKO VRSKLVWLFDWHG ULVN PDQDJHPHQW H[SHUWV ,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW ZLWK JRRG JRYHUQDQFH DQG D UXOHVEDVHG VVWHP 6LQJDSRUH·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
  • 28. KDYH JDLQHG LPSRUWDQFH RYHU WKH HDUV +RZHYHU WKLV ZDV QRW DQ HDV DUHD IRU WKH JRYHUQPHQW DV LW FRXOG EH DOZDV DUJXHG WKDW LQ WKH VKRUWHU UXQ 01(V SURYLGH JUHDWHU YDOXH WR WKH HFRQRP WKDQ 60(V 3HUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUHV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG WR PRQLWRU WKH JURZWK DQG FRQWULEXWLRQ RI 60(V WR WKH HFRQRP :KHWKHU WR IXQG RU QRW WKH JURZWK RI 60(V ZDV D GLOHPPD GLVFXVVHG LQ 6LQJDSRUH LQ WKH SDVW 6RPH RI WKH EHVW FRPSDQLHV 7KH DXWKRU RI WKLV HVVD LV JUDWHIXO WR 0U 0RKDQ 3DQLFNHU IRU GUDZLQJ KHU DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI IRFXVLQJ WKH SROLF IUDPHZRUN DQG WR WKH FKDOOHQJHV RI 60( GHYHORSPHQW DQG LQQRYDWLRQ
  • 29. ϭϬ VXFK DV UHDWLYH 7HFKQRORJLHV ODXQFKHG WKHLU LQLWLDO OLVWLQJ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV UDWKHU WKDQ LQ 6LQJDSRUH 7KLV OHG WR WKH JRYHUQPHQW LQLWLDWLQJ D FRPPLWWHH WR GHYHORS D PDVWHU SODQ EDVHG RQ 817$'·V 60( DVVLVWDQFH IUDPHZRUN 2YHU WKH HDUV LW ZDV PRGLILHG IURP WKH LQLWLDO PDVWHU SODQ WR D PRUH FRPSDQFHQWULF DVVLVWDQFH 1RZ ZH GR QRW IROORZ D PDVWHUSODQ :H KDYH FUHDWHG D XQLTXH VVWHP ZKLFK LV SXUHO EDVHG RQ 60( QHHGV 6XFFHVV FDQ EH PHDVXUHG E WKH IDFW WKDW WKHUH DUH DERXW 60(V FRQWULEXWLQJ WR SHU FHQW RI WKH HPSORPHQW 7R PDLQWDLQ D YLEUDQW EXVLQHVV FRPPXQLW QDWLRQDO OHDGHUV QHHG WR LQWURGXFH FRQVWDQW FKDQJH LQ SROLFLHV DQG IUDPHZRUNV ,Q WKLV DUHD 6LQJDSRUH KDV GUDZQ OHVVRQV IURP RWKHU HFRQRPLHV DQG WKH UHVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG E 817$' $ QHZ FKDOOHQJLQJ DUHD LV LQQRYDWLRQ ZKHUH 6LQJDSRUH LV FXUUHQWO H[SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK D QXPEHU RI SURFHVVHV DQG SURMHFW IXQGLQJ 7KHUH KDYH EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO SURGXFW GHYHORSPHQWV DQG VRPH IDLOXUHV WRR 7KH FRPPHUFLDOL]DWLRQ RI DQ LQQRYDWLRQ VWLOO FRQWLQXHV WR EH D FKDOOHQJH LQ 6LQJDSRUH +HQFH D QHZ IUDPHZRUN ZDV LQWURGXFHG LQ -DQXDU ZLWK D IXQGLQJ RI 6 ELOOLRQ IRU WKH QH[W HDUV 817$'·V 3 SODWIRUP KDV JLYHQ 6LQJDSRUH WKH RSSRUWXQLW WR VKDUH DQG OHDUQ IURP GLVWLQJXLVKHG H[SHUWV DQG GHOHJDWHV
  • 30. ϭϭ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
  • 31. QHJDWLYHO DIIHFWLQJ ERWK H[SRUW DQG LPSRUW EDVHG HFRQRPLF PRGHOV DQG FRQVHTXHQWO DIIHFWLQJ WKH DOUHDG QRW VR FOHDU FRPSHWLWLYH DGYDQWDJH RI WKH UHJLRQ % PRVW HPHUJLQJ DQG GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV ZKLFK LQ WKH SUHYLRXV HDUV KDG H[SHULHQFHG UREXVW JURZWK LQ PRVW RI WKHLU HFRQRPLF LQGLFDWRUV KDYH VWDUWHG WR UHDOL]H WKDW WKH UHFHQW SRVLWLYH EHKDYLRXU RI WKHLU HFRQRPLHV ZRXOG QRW EH VXVWDLQHG IRUHYHU DQG VRPHWLPHV IRU UHDVRQV RXWVLGH WKH FRQWURO RI WKH SROLF PDNHU 7R DGDSW WR WKLV VLWXDWLRQ DQG WR PDLQWDLQ SURJUHVV WKHUH LV D QHHG IRU LQFUHDVLQJ FDSDFLW EXLOGLQJ LQ ERWK SHRSOH DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR DGDSW UHVSRQVHV WR DQ HYHU LQFUHDVLQJ FRPSOH[ DQG GQDPLF JOREDO VFHQDULR RXSOHG ZLWK WKDW UHDOLW DQG SHUKDSV DV D UHVXOW RI LW
  • 32. GXULQJ VHYHUDO FRXQWULHV LQ WKH HQWLUH ZRUOG DUH IDFLQJ SROLWLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FKDOOHQJHV 7KH WU WR LGHQWLI DQG IROORZ D VXVWDLQDEOH DQG LQFOXVLYH GHYHORSPHQW SDWK 7KLV GRHV QRW RQO LPSO WKH DOLJQPHQW RI WKH GHVLJQ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ PRQLWRULQJ DQG PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SROLWLFDO VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQWDO WUDGH WHFKQRORJ ILQDQFH DQG LQYHVWPHQW SROLFLHV WR WKH VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW DJHQGD RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV IRU ² EXW DOVR UHTXLUHV WKH VWUHQJWKHQLQJ RI LQVWLWXWLRQDO FDSDFLWLHV WR LGHQWLI DQG VROYH HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO SUREOHPV 0HFKDQLVPV HQKDQFLQJ HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO GHYHORSPHQW OHG E PXOWLODWHUDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV VXFK DV WKH IODJVKLS FRXUVH FUHDWHG XQGHU WKH PDQGDWH RI 3DUDJUDSK 3
  • 33. RI WKH %DQJNRN 3ODQ RI $FWLRQ DGRSWHG E 817$'·V PHPEHUV LQ DUH LQVWUXPHQWDO IRU WKH EXLOGLQJ RI FDSDFLWLHV IRU NH SHRSOH DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG 2YHU WKH HDUV WKH 3 KDV SURYHQ WR IDFLOLWDWH OHDUQLQJ IRU SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ WHUPV RI SROLF DQDOVLV SROLF PDNLQJ SROLFLHV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI NH DFWRUV DQG PHDQV RI LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH 3 RIIHUV SDUWLFLSDQWV WKH RSSRUWXQLW IRU LQWHUDFWLQJ ZLWK SHHUV IURP FRXQWULHV ZLWK VLPLODU LQVWLWXWLRQDO IHDWXUHV XQGHUVWDQGLQJ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG FRQGLWLRQV LQFUHDVLQJ WHFKQLFDO FRPSHWHQFHV IRU HIIHFWLYH VROXWLRQV LGHQWLILQJ WUDQVIHUDEOH NQRZKRZ DQG WRROV IRU DGGUHVVLQJ FKDOOHQJHV $GGLWLRQDOO WKH 3 GRHV SURYLGH D VXLWDEOH VSDFH IRU GHYHORSLQJ SHUVRQDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV LQ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV $V LW ZDV SUHVHQWHG E RQH RI WKH FRXQWU UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV LQ WKH 817$'·V 3 UHJLRQDO FRXUVH LQ IRU /DWLQ $PHULFD DQG WKH DULEEHDQ KHOG LQ 0HGHOOtQ RORPELD
  • 34. DQG FRRUGLQDWHG E 0RKDQ 3DQLFNHU ´WKH 3 JLYHV WKH RSSRUWXQLW IRU GHEDWH DQG FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH UHJLRQ VLQFH LW LV QRW RQO NQRZLQJ WKH HFRQRPLF DQG GHYHORSPHQW QHHGV LQ RXU FRXQWULHV EXW LW LV DOVR DERXW VKDULQJ RXU H[SHULHQFHV LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH RXU JRDOV LQGLYLGXDOO DQG DV D UHJLRQµ
  • 36. ϭϯ 7UDGH FRXOG DQG VKRXOG EH DQ HQJLQH RI JURZWK ² ZH MXVW QHHG GLIIHUHQW WUDFNV 0LD 0LNLF 77UDGH KDV EHHQ WKH NH GULYHU RI JURZWK DQG GHYHORSPHQW LQ $VLDQ HFRQRPLHV VPDOO DQG ODUJH DOLNH +RZHYHU LW KDV QHYHU EHHQ D ZDON LQ WKH SDUN $V OHVVRQV IURP 6LQJDSRUH RQH RI WKH $VLDQ 7LJHUV FOHDUO VKRZ EXLOGLQJ D GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJ RQ WUDGH ² ZKLFK E GHILQLWLRQ DOVR GHSHQGV RQ VRPH RWKHU IDFWRUV ZKLFK DUH QRW XQGHU RZQ FRQWURO ² UHTXLUHV VNLOO SODQQLQJ DQG KDUG ZRUN :KHQ WKH UROH RI WUDGH LQ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LV GLVFXVVHG D EDODQFHG DQG UHDOLVWLF DVVHVVPHQW KDV WR EH JLYHQ :KLOH WUDGH KDV WDNHQ 6LQJDSRUH DQG RWKHU $VLDQ WLJHUV RXW RI WKHLU ´XQGHUGHYHORSPHQWµ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²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
  • 37. RYHU WKH UHFHQW ² PRQWKV FDQ EH D FDXVH IRU FRQFHUQ $ IDLOXUH WR UHWXUQ WR VWURQJ WUDGH DQG )', JURZWK LV SDUWLFXODUO ZRUULVRPH IRU ORZLQFRPH HFRQRPLHV ZKLFK DUH FRPPLWWHG WR ERWK WKH ,VWDQEXO 3URJUDPPH RI $FWLRQ *RDOV DQG WKH 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV 0RUHRYHU WKH KDYH WR DGMXVW WR D VLWXDWLRQ FDOOHG ´1HZ 1RUPDOµ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
  • 38. ϭϰ 2QH RI WKH UHDGPDGH UHFLSHV DOZDV RIIHUHG ZKHQ WKHUH DUH VRPH VKRFNV LQ JOREDO GHPDQG LV WKH QHHG WR VWUHQJWKHQ UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ WKURXJK WLJKWHU WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW OLQNDJHV ZLWKLQ ZKDWHYHU UHJLRQ RQH LV GLVFXVVLQJ 7KH XQFHUWDLQW WKDW KDV SODJXHG WKH JOREDO HFRQRP IRU VRPH HDUV QRZ KDV XQTXHVWLRQDEO UHVXOWHG LQ FDOOV IRU DQG DFWLRQV RQ HQKDQFHG UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ /DWLQ $PHULFD DQG WKH DULEEHDQ $IULFD DQG $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF DOLNH :KLOH UREXVW LQLWLDWLYHV WRZDUGV VWUHQJWKHQLQJ UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ H[LVW LQ /DWLQ $PHULFD DQG $IULFD WRR $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF LV SDUWO GLIIHUHQW IURP WKHP LQ WKH VHQVH WKDW WKDW WKH UHJLRQ OHDGV WKH ZRUOG LQ WHUPV RI LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI UHFLSURFDO WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV LQYROYLQJ VRPH $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF FRXQWULHV RXW RI DJUHHPHQWV LQ IRUFH JOREDOO
  • 39. 0RVW RI WKHVH DUH HVVHQWLDOO OLEHUDOL]LQJ PHUFKDQGLVH WUDGH DQG D IDLU QXPEHU JRHV LQWR UHODWHG VHUYLFHV DQG )', DUHDV EXW RQO RQH RU WZR JR DV IDU DV DLPLQJ WR EXLOG LQWHJUDWHG PDUNHWV RQVHTXHQWO LQVWHDG RI DGGLQJ QHZ LQVWUXPHQWV RI VKDOORZ LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG OLPLWHG WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ UHJLRQDO JURZWK FRXOG JDLQ PRUH GQDPLVP IURP GHHSHQLQJ WKHVH HIIRUWV WR LQFOXGH PDQDJHPHQW RI QRQWDULII PHDVXUHV 7KHVH EDUULHUV VWULFWO VSHDNLQJ FDQQRW EH UHPRYHG DV ZH GR ZLWK WDULIIV EXW PDQDJHG WKURXJK KDUPRQL]DWLRQ RU VLPLODU LQLWLDWLYHV VR WKDW LW ZRXOG EH HDVLHU DQG FKHDSHU WR FRPSO ZLWK WKHVH RIWHQ SXEOLFSROLF LQLWLDWHG
  •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² WKH PXVW PXOWLODWHUDOL]H WKHLU FRQFHVVLRQV IRU DOO ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV
  • 41. ϭϱ $IULFD PXVW EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ LWVHOI LQ WKH UDSLGO FKDQJLQJ ZRUOG WUDGH ODQGVFDSH 6LPRQ 0HYHO 22YHU WKH SDVW ILIWHHQ HDUV ZRUOG WUDGH KDV QHDUO WULSOHG 6XFK JURZWK KDV OHVV WR GR ZLWK WKH UDWKHU IHZ GHYHORSPHQWV PDGH LQ WKH PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGLQJ VVWHP WKDQ ZLWK WKH LPSUHVVLYH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH FRQFOXVLRQ RI UHJLRQDO WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV 57$V
  • 42. ,QGHHG WKH QXPEHU RI 57$V LQ IRUFH ² ZKLFK DUH DJDLQVW WKH PRVWIDYRXUHG QDWLRQ 0)1
  • 43. FODXVH EXW KDYH EHHQ WROHUDWHG E WKH :RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ :72
  • 44. ² KDV SDVVHG IURP OHVV WKDQ LQ WR PRUH WKDQ LQ ,Q IDFW WKH VORZ SURJUHVV PDGH LQ WKH PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGH QHJRWLDWLRQV KDV DFWXDOO IRUFHG FRXQWULHV WR H[SORUH QHZ ZDV WR H[SDQG WKHLU WUDGH OHDGLQJ WR LQWHQVLILHG UHJLRQDOLVP 7KH ODWHVW WUHQG WRZDUGV UHJLRQDOLVP LV WKH HPHUJHQFH RI PHJDUHJLRQDO WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV 057$V
  • 45. 7KUHH PDLQ 057$V DUH FXUUHQWO QHJRWLDWHG QDPHO WKH 7UDQVDWODQWLF 7UDGH DQG ,QYHVWPHQW 3DUWQHUVKLS 77,3
  • 46. EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ WKH 7UDQV3DFLILF 3DUWQHUVKLS 733
  • 47. EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG RWKHU QDWLRQV PRVWO IURP /DWLQ $PHULFD $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF DQG WKH 5HJLRQDO RPSUHKHQVLYH (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS 5(3
  • 48. EHWZHHQ HFRQRPLHV IURP $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF RQVLGHULQJ WKHLU EURDG FRXQWU FRYHUDJH QRW MXVW QHLJKERXULQJ FRXQWULHV
  • 49. DQG VFRSH RI LVVXHV EHLQJ QHJRWLDWHG 057$V DUH H[SHFWHG WR JUHDWO PRGLI WKH WUDGH UHODWLRQVKLSV ZRUOGZLGH WKHUHE SRVLQJ FKDOOHQJHV WR WKH PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGLQJ VVWHP $IULFD LV QRW EHLQJ SDUW RI DQ RI WKH DERYH WKUHH 057$ FRQILJXUDWLRQV DQG UHPDLQV D PDUJLQDO SODHU LQ WKH ZRUOG WUDGH DUHQD ,QGHHG DQG GHVSLWH VWURQJ LQFUHDVHV LQ LWV WUDGH RYHU WKH SDVW HDUV $IULFD·V VKDUH LQ JOREDO WUDGH KDV UHPDLQHG QHDUO XQFKDQJHG DQG LV RQO SHUFHQW WRGD 6LPLODUO LQWUDUHJLRQDO WUDGH LQ $IULFD KDV QRW SLFNHG XS VWDQGLQJ DW DURXQG SHUFHQW ZKLFK LV FRQVLGHUDEO ORZHU WKDQ WKH VKDUH LQ DQ RWKHU PDMRU UHJLRQ LQ WKH ZRUOG ,Q VXFK D FRQWH[W $IULFD PXVW UDSLGO DQG VWUDWHJLFDOO SRVLWLRQ LWVHOI LQ D UDSLGO FKDQJLQJ ZRUOG WUDGH ODQGVFDSH 5HFHQW HYLGHQFH 0HYHO DQG 0DWKLHX IRUWKFRPLQJ
  • 50. LQGLFDWHV WKDW LW LV LPSHUDWLYH IRU $IULFD WR HVWDEOLVK LWV RZQ 057$ ² WKH RQWLQHQWDO )UHH 7UDGH $UHD )7$
  • 51. ²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·V LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ 3RVLWLYH RXWFRPHV ZRXOG EH IXUWKHU HQKDQFHG LI WKH )7$ UHIRUP ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E D UHGXFWLRQ RI FRVWV WR WUDGH DFURVV ERUGHUV $XWKRU·V FDOFXODWLRQV EDVHG RQ 817$'6WDW DFFHVVHG 0DUFK 6HH KWWSVZZZZWRRUJHQJOLVKWUDWRSBHUHJLRQBHUHJIDFBHKWP 1HDUO PXOWLSOLHG E IRXU DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DXWKRU·V FDOFXODWLRQV EDVHG RQ 817$'6WDW DFFHVVHG 0DUFK $XWKRU·V FDOFXODWLRQV EDVHG RQ 817$'6WDW DFFHVVHG 0DUFK
  • 52. ϭϲ :KLOH GHHSHQLQJ UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ FDQ FOHDUO EH VHHQ DV D WRS SULRULW IRU $IULFD LW ZLOO OLNHO QRW EH VXIILFLHQW WR VLJQLILFDQWO LPSURYH $IULFD·V SRVLWLRQ LQ ZRUOG WUDGH 8QGHQLDEO WKH FRQWLQHQWDO PDUNHW LV UHODWLYHO VPDOO DQG IUDJPHQWHG 7KHUHIRUH $IULFD ZLOO QHHG WR H[SDQG LWV H[SRUWV RI QRQWUDGLWLRQDO SURGXFWV EHRQG WKH FRQWLQHQWDO PDUNHW 0HYHO DQG 0DWKLHX IRUWKFRPLQJ
  • 53. 2SHQLQJ XS WR FRXQWULHV IURP $VLD DQG SDUWLFXODUO WKH 0LGGOH (DVW FRXOG EH D YLDEOH VWUDWHJ IRU $IULFDQ FRXQWULHV WR GLYHUVLI WKHLU H[SRUW EDVHV DQG SURJUHVVLYHO WUDQVIRUP WKHLU HFRQRPLHV RQVHTXHQWO LW LV FULWLFDO IRU $IULFD WR LPPHGLDWHO UHWKLQN WKH SULRULWLHV UHJDUGLQJ WKH YDULRXV WUDGH QHJRWLDWLRQV LW LV FXUUHQWO HQJDJHG LQ (IIRUWV PXVW IRFXV PRUH RQ QHJRWLDWLQJ DQG HIIHFWLYHO LPSOHPHQWLQJ UHIRUPV WKDW FDQ EHVW VXSSRUW $IULFD·V SULRULWLHV GHHSHQLQJ UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG VWUDWHJLFDOO HQJDJLQJ ZLWK 6RXWK6RXWK SDUWQHUV 5HIHUHQFH 0HYHO 6 DQG 0DWKLHX 0 IRUWKFRPLQJ
  • 54. ´(PHUJHQFH RI PHJDUHJLRQDO WUDGH DJUHHPHQWV DQG WKH LPSHUDWLYH IRU $IULFDQ HFRQRPLHV WR VWUDWHJLFDOO HQKDQFH WUDGHUHODWHG 6RXWK6RXWK RRSHUDWLRQµ RQIHUHQFH SDSHU VXEPLWWHG DQG DFFHSWHG IRU SUHVHQWDWLRQ DW WKH WK *OREDO (FRQRPLF RQIHUHQFH ² -XQH :DVKLQJWRQ '
  • 55. ϭϳ 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LQ WKH ()7$ LQWHJUDWLRQ 3UHGUDJ %MHOLü 88QWLO WKH PLGWK FHQWXU WDULIIV ZHUH WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW WUDGH LQVWUXPHQWV WKDW FRXQWULHV XVHG WR SURWHFW WKHLU SURGXFHUV DJDLQVW IRUHLJQ FRPSHWLWLRQ 7KDQNV WR WKH *HQHUDO $JUHHPHQW RQ 7DULIIV DQG 7UDGH *$77
  • 56. HVWDEOLVKHG LQ DQG RSHUDWLQJ IURP RQ PRVW RI WKH WDULIIV RQ LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWV ZHUH FXW GRZQ VLJQLILFDQWO GXULQJ WKH HLJKW URXQGV RI PXOWLODWHUDO WUDGH QHJRWLDWLRQV +RZHYHU FRXQWULHV ZHUH QRW UHDG WR IXOO OLEHUDOL]H WKHLU WUDGH UHJLPHV DQG QRQWDULII EDUULHUV ZHUH XVHG DV SURWHFWLRQLVW WRROV 1RQWDULII EDUULHUV DUH DOO PHDVXUHV RWKHU WKDQ WDULIIV WKDW FDQ DFW DV D KXUGOH WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH QRW MXVW UHVWULFWLQJ LW EXW DOVR ´XQQDWXUDOOµ SURPRWLQJ WKH H[SRUWV RI RQH FRXQWU DQG ZKRVH PDLQ DLP LV WKH SURWHFWLRQ RI GRPHVWLF PDUNHW IURP IRUHLJQ FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG QRW MXVW WKH EXGJHW UHYHQXHV %MHOLü
  • 57. :H FODVVLI QRQWDULII EDUULHUV LQWR WKUHH EURDG JURXSV 7UDGLWLRQDO QRQWDULII EDUULHUV ZKLFK LQFOXGH TXDQWLWDWLYH EDUULHUV VXEYHQWLRQV DQWLGXPSLQJ PHDVXUHV FRPSHQVDWRU PHDVXUHV ORFDO FRQWHQW UHTXLUHPHQW PHDVXUHV HWF 7HFKQLFDO EDUULHUV WR WUDGH ZKLFK LQFOXGH QRQWDULII PHDVXUHV GHULYHG IURP GLIIHUHQW QDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV DQG WHFKQLFDO UHJXODWLRQV $GPLQLVWUDWLYH WUDGH EDUULHUV ZKLFK LQFOXGH DOO EDUULHUV WR WUDGH GHULYHG IURP QDWLRQDO ODZV DQG UHJXODWLRQV DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH SURFHGXUHV WKDW DIIHFW IRUHLJQ WUDGH %MHOLü
  • 58. 7UDGLWLRQDO QRQWDULII EDUULHUV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO UHGXFHG GXULQJ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI WKH *$77 ²
  • 59. VWDUWLQJ IURP WKH .HQQHG 5RXQG 7KH LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHJXODWLRQ RI WHFKQLFDO EDUULHUV WR WUDGH ZDV VWDUWHG ZLWK WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI :RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ :72
  •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
  • 61. WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH ZDV QRW IXOO JDXJHG XQWLO RWKHU PRUH VLJQLILFDQW EDUULHUV WR WUDGH KDG EHHQ UHPRYHG 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV DQ LQLWLDWLYH GHYHORSHG E WKH :72 WR UHGXFH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH EDUULHUV WR WUDGH 7UDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV VLPSO GHILQHG DV ´VLPSOLILFDWLRQ RI WUDGH SURFHGXUHVµ 81(( S
  • 62. 7KH 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 2('
  • 63. GHILQHV WUDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ DV ´DFWLYLWLHV SUDFWLFHV DQG IRUPDOLWLHV LQYROYHG LQ FROOHFWLQJ SUHVHQWLQJ FRPPXQLFDWLQJ DQG SURFHVVLQJ GDWD UHTXLUHG IRU WKH PRYHPHQW RI JRRGV LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGHµ 7KH *$77 UDLVHG VRPH TXHVWLRQ FRQQHFWHG WR DGPLQLVWUDWLYH REVWDFOHV LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH E LQFRUSRUDWLQJ VRPH SULQFLSOHV LQ WKUHH *$77 DUWLFOHV $UWLFOH 9 IUHHGRP RI WUDQVLW
  • 64. ϭϴ $UWLFOH 9,,, IHHV DQG IRUPDOLWLHV FRQQHFWHG ZLWK LPSRUWDWLRQ DQG H[SRUWDWLRQ DQG $UWLFOH ; SXEOLFDWLRQ DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI WUDGH UHJXODWLRQV 7KH GHILQLWLRQ XVHG LQ :72 VWDWHG WKDW WUDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV D SURFHVV WR ´FODULI DQG LPSURYH UHOHYDQW DVSHFWV RI $UWLFOHV 9 9,,, DQG ; RI WKH *$77 ZLWK D YLHZ WR IXUWKHU H[SHGLWLQJ WKH PRYHPHQW UHOHDVH DQG FOHDUDQFH RI JRRGV LQFOXGLQJ JRRGV LQ WUDQVLWµ :72
  •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
  • 73. (XURSH HQWUDO $VLD $OEDQLD %RVQLD DQG +HU]HJRYLQD URDWLD .RVRYR 7KH IRUPHU XJRVODY 5HSXEOLF RI 0DFHGRQLD 5HSXEOLF RI 0ROGRYD 0RQWHQHJUR 6HUELD 6RXUFH :RUOG %DQN 'RLQJ %XVLQHVV 5HSRUW 7UDGLQJ $FURVV %RUGHUV ,QGLFDWRUV 7KH VL[ :HVWHUQ %DONDQ HFRQRPLHV DUH SDUWLHV WR WKH HQWUDO (XURSHDQ )UHH 7UDGH $JUHHPHQW ()7$
  • 74. WUDGH LQWHJUDWLRQ SURFHVV WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH 5HSXEOLF RI 0ROGRYD 7KH DWWDFK D JUHDW LPSRUWDQFH WR IDFLOLWDWLQJ WUDGH LQ WKH ()7$ UHJLRQ 7KH QHJRWLDWLRQ RI D QHZ UHJLRQDO SURWRFRO RI WUDGH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LV XQGHU ZD 7KLV GHVLJQDWLRQ LV ZLWKRXW SUHMXGLFH WR SRVLWLRQV RQ WKH VWDWXV RI WKH WHUULWRU RI .RVRYR DQG LV LQ OLQH ZLWK 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 6HFXULW RXQFLO 5HVROXWLRQ RI DQG WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO RXUW RI -XVWLFH $GYLVRU 2SLQLRQ RQ .RVRYR·V 'HFODUDWLRQ RI ,QGHSHQGHQFH RI
  • 76. 7KH ,QYLVLEOH 7DULII ² $ 6WXG RI RQWURO RI ,PSRUWV LQWR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RXQFLO RQ )RUHLJQ 5HODWLRQV 1HZ RUN %MHOLü 3
  • 77. 1HFDULQVNH EDULMHUH X PHÿXQDURGQRM WUJRYLQL 3URPHWHM %HRJUDG %MHOLü 3
  • 78. µ:RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ DQG WKH *OREDO 5LVNVµ ,Q $OHPDQQR $ GHQ %XWWHU ) 1LMVHQ $ DQG 7RUULWL - HGV
  • 79. %HWWHU %XVLQHVV 5HJXODWLRQ LQ D 5LVN 6RFLHW 6SULQJHU 6FLHQFH%XVLQHVV 0HGLD 1HZ RUN SS ² /HYHWW %$
  • 80. 7KURXJK WKH XVWRPV 0D]H XVWRPV 0D]H 3XEOLVKLQJ R 1HZ RUN 2('
  • 81. )URP 5HG 7DSH WR 6PDUW 7DSH $GPLQLVWUDWLYH 6LPSOLILFDWLRQ LQ 2(' RXQWULHV 2(' 3DULV 81((
  • 82. 6KDULQJ WKH *DLQV RI *OREDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH 1HZ 6HFXULW (QYLURQPHQW 7KH KDOOHQJHV WR 7UDGH 81(( *HQHYD :72
  • 83. ´*HQHUDO RXQFLO·V GHFLVLRQ RQ WKH 'RKD $JHQGD ZRUN SURJUDPPH WKH ´-XO SDFNDJHµ
  • 84. µ $XJXVW GRFXPHQW :7/ $QQH[ ' 0RGDOLWLHV IRU 1HJRWLDWLRQV RQ 7UDGH )DFLOLWDWLRQ KWWSZZZZWRRUJHQJOLVKWUDWRSBHGGDBHGUDIWBWH[WBJFBGJBMXOBHKWP DQQH[G
  • 86. Ϯϭ RQVHTXHQFHV RI WKH ULVH RI IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW IRU SROLF PDNLQJ .DOPDQ .DORWD 7KH ULVH RI )', ))RUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW )',
  • 87. KDV H[SHULHQFHG D IDVW ULVH DQG VSUHDG DFURVV WKH JOREH RYHU WKH SDVW GHFDGHV $FFRUGLQJ WR QXPEHUV GHULYHG IURP 817$'·V )',01( GDWDEDVH LQ JOREDO )', VWRFN VWRRG DW DURXQG ELOOLRQ % LW VZHOOHG WR WULOOLRQ ² D WLPHV LQFUHDVH ,Q ² DQQXDO )', IORZV DYHUDJHG ELOOLRQ ,Q ² WKH ZHUH PRUH WKDQ WLPHV KLJKHU FORVH WR WULOOLRQ 1RWH WKDW WKH ODWWHU SHULRG FRYHUHG PRVWO WKH WLPHV RI WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ LQ ZKLFK )', IORZV GHFOLQHG IURP WKHLU SUHYLRXV SHDN )RU D FRPSDULVRQ RYHU WKH VDPH SHULRG RI WLPH ZRUOG PHUFKDQGLVH H[SRUWV JUHZ WLPHV IURP WULOOLRQ WR WULOOLRQ
  • 88. 7KH VHFWRUDO SDWWHUQV RI )', WRR VKLIWHG LQ IDYRXU RI VHUYLFHV ,Q WKH DOUHDG UHSUHVHQWHG FORVH WR KDOI RI WKH ZRUOG VWRFN E WKHLU VKDUH URVH WR FORVH WR WZRWKLUGV )RU KRVW FRXQWU LQYHVWPHQW SURPRWLRQ HIIRUWV IROORZLQJ WUHQGV LQ WKH DFWLYLWLHV RI PXOWLQDWLRQDO HQWHUSULVHV 01(V
  • 89. WKLV VKLIW PHDQW WKDW WKH VXVWDLQDELOLW DQG YDOXHDGGLQJ FDSDELOLWLHV RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ SURMHFWV EHFDPH PRUH DQG PRUH GHSHQGHQW RQ DGMDFHQW VHUYLFHV VXFK DV UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW 5 '
  • 90. PDUNHWLQJ RU DIWHUFDUH $QRWKHU PDMRU FKDQJH LQ )', KDV EHHQ LWV JHRJUDSKLFDO GLVSHUVLRQ VLQFH ,Q WKH ODWH V WKH 7ULDG FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV WKH (XURSHDQ RPPXQLW WRGD·V (8
  • 91. DQG -DSDQ VWLOO DFFRXQWHG IRU WKH EXON RI ZRUOG )', VWRFNV DQG IORZV 7KHLU VKDUHV GHFOLQHG RYHU WKH ORQJ WHUP 7KLV VKLIWLQJ JHRJUDSK RI )', DJDLQ KDV PDMRU LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU SROLF PDNHUV ZLVKLQJ WR DWWUDFW LQERXQG )', WKH KDYH WR FRQVLGHU D PRUH GLYHUVH DQG GLVSHUVHG VRXUFH IRU LQIORZV
  • 92. DQG WR SURPRWH WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI WKHLU ILUPV WKRVH ILUPV KDYH WR FRPSHWH ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU RI HPHUJLQJ 01(V
  •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
  •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
  • 95. ϮϮ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
  • 96. Ϯϯ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² HYHQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ²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
  • 97. Ϯϰ 7KHUH LV D VHW RI DFWLRQV WKDW FDQ LPSURYH D FRXQWU·V DELOLW WR PDQDJH WKH XQFHUWDLQW DQG HIIHFWV RI WHFKQRORJLFDO FKDQJH 7KH LQFOXGH JHWWLQJ RUJDQL]HG DQG GHYHORSLQJ D QDWLRQDO YLVLRQ RQ VFLHQFH WHFKQRORJ DQG LQQRYDWLRQ 67,
  • 98. GHVLJQLQJ DQ HIIHFWLYH LQVWLWXWLRQDO IUDPHZRUN IRU FRRUGLQDWLQJ 67, GHVLJQLQJ DQG LPSOHPHQWLQJ DQ HIIHFWLYH SROLF IUDPHZRUN IRU 67, XVLQJ WKH DYDLODEOH SROLF WRROV HVSHFLDOO WHFKQRORJ IRUHFDVWLQJ
  • 99. DQG OLQNLQJ WKLV ZHOO WR WKH LQVWLWXWLRQDO IUDPHZRUN HQVXULQJ SROLF FRKHUHQFH ZLWK RWKHU NH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SROLFLHV HVSHFLDOO LQGXVWULDO WUDGH IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW HGXFDWLRQ DQG VNLOOV SROLFLHV GHYHORSLQJ VWURQJ SROLF OHDUQLQJ FDSDFLW SURPRWLQJ HIIHFWLYH VVWHPV RI LQQRYDWLRQ DQG EXLOGLQJ 67, FDSDFLW DPRQJ NH QDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV ILUPV XQLYHUVLWLHV UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHV VWDQGDUGV RUJDQL]DWLRQV DQG RWKHUV
  • 100. DQG SXUVXLQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDO FROODERUDWLRQ RXQWULHV PD QHYHU EH DEOH WR LQVXODWH WKHPVHOYHV IURP JOREDO WHFKQRORJLFDO FKDQJH %XW KRZ ZHOO D FRXQWU PDQDJHV WR QDYLJDWH WKURXJK WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO DQG LQGXVWULDO UHYROXWLRQV RI WKH IXWXUH ZLOO GHSHQG XSRQ KRZ ZHOO WKH PDQDJH WKLV VHW RI SURFHVVHV %HRQG WKLV ZH FDQ SXVK IRU HIIHFWLYH JOREDO FRRSHUDWLRQ
  • 101. Ϯϱ ,7 IRU GHYHORSPHQW WKH QHHG IRU EUHDNLQJ GRZQ VLORV 7RUEM|UQ )UHGULNVVRQ 22QH RI WKH PDLQ IHDWXUHV RI WKH JOREDO HFRQRP LQ WKH SDVW GHFDGH KDV EHHQ WKH VSUHDG RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQV WHFKQRORJLHV ,7V
  • 102. 2QO HDUV DJR DW WKH WLPH RI WKH :RUOG 6XPPLW RQ WKH ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6RFLHW :6,6
  •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
  • 104. FRPPLWWHG ´WR KDUQHVVLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQV WHFKQRORJLHV WR DFKLHYH WKH $JHQGD IRU 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW DQG RWKHU LQWHUQDWLRQDOO DJUHHG GHYHORSPHQW JRDOV QRWLQJ WKDW WKH FDQ DFFHOHUDWH SURJUHVV DFURVV DOO 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOVµ :KLOH HQFRXUDJLQJ PHHWLQJ WKLV FRPPLWPHQW HIIHFWLYHO ZLOO QRW EH HDV ,7V DUH FURVV FXWWLQJ WHFKQRORJLHV ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW WKH FDQ EH DSSOLHG LQ D ZLGH VSHFWUXP RI GHYHORSPHQW ILHOGV ²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
  • 105. ² ZKLFK LV FXUUHQWO FKDLUHG E 817$' ² ZDV VHW XS DV D FRRUGLQDWLQJ PHFKDQLVP WR HQVXUH WKDW
  • 106. Ϯϲ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·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
  • 107. Ϯϳ 3$57 ,9 :+(1 3(5621$/ (;3(5,(1( 0((76 6,(1(«
  • 108. Ϯϴ +DLUFXWV $Q HPSLULFDO VWXG RQ *$77 DQG *$76 -DQ +RIIPDQQ $EVWUDFW %%XLOGLQJ XSRQ 0DUN 7ZDLQ
  • 109. DQ HPSLULFDO VWXG RQ WKH LPSRUWV DQG H[SRUWV RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKHUH LV PXOWLFROOLQHDULW EHWZHHQ WKH PRWLYDWLRQV RI KDYLQJ D KDLUFXW DEURDG D FRXQWU·V *'3 SHU FDSLWD DJH WKH SURSHQVLW RI XVLQJ WDWWRRV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI UD]RU WHFKQRORJLHV LQ VDORRQV ILJXUH
  • 110. DQG VHUYLFHV WUDGH XQGHU *$76 0RGH VHH :72 E
  • 111. )LJXUH 6DPSOH RI RSWLRQV DYDLODEOH WR WKH UHVHDUFKHU ,QWURGXFWLRQ ,Q RUGHU WR H[SRUW VHUYLFHV D FRXQWU QHHGV WR LPSRUW RWKHU JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV $ JRRG FDVH WR VWXG DQG DQDOVH WKLV FRQFHSW LV WKH H[SRUWV RI KDLUFXWWLQJ VHUYLFHV *$76 0RGH VHH :72 D
  • 112. ZKLFK IUHTXHQWO LQYROYHV WKH LPSRUWV RI JRRGV VKDPSRRV VFLVVRUV UD]RUV FKDLUV PLUURUV HWF IRU WKHLU PRGHV RI WUDQVSRUW VHH ILJXUH
  • 113. DQG DW WLPHV DOVR WKH HPSORPHQW RI JXHVW ZRUNHUV 0HWKRGRORJ :H HPSLULFDOO WHVWHG D WRWDO RI KDLU VDORQV LQ FRXQWULHV +RIIPDQQ IRU H[DPSOHV VHH ILJXUHV DQG
  • 114. 7KH DSSURDFK PD UHTXLUH WKH XVH RI KDQGODQJXDJH WR SRLQW RXW WKH GHVLUHG VKRUWHQLQJ RI WKH KDLU ,W DOVR UHTXLUHV IOH[LELOLW DV UHJDUGV WKH SODFHV DQG KJLHQLF PHDVXUHV DGRSWHG E WKH VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV 8QIRUWXQDWHO DW WLPHV WKH LOOXVWUDWLRQ RI HJ FP ZLWK WKH KHOS RI WKH UHVHDUFKHU·V WKXPE DQG ILQJHU ZDV LQWHUSUHWHG ZURQJO E WKH VHUYLFHV SURYLGHU ,QVWHDG RI FXWWLQJ RQO FP RII WKH H[LVWLQJ KDLU RQFH WKH UHVHDUFKHU SXW EDFN KLV JODVVHV DIWHU WKH KDLUFXW KH QRWLFHG WR KLV DVWRQLVKPHQW WKDW GXH WR LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG ODQJXDJH SUREOHPV WKH VHUYLFH SURYLGHU XQGHUVWRRG WKDW RQO FP RI KDLU VKRXOG EH OHIW RQ WKH KHDG 7KLV WSH RI PLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJ OHDG WR D GHOD LQ WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFH EHFDXVH DV D FRQVHTXHQFH WKH QH[W KDLU FXW KDG WR ZDLW VHYHUDO PRQWKV LQVWHDG RI MXVW D IHZ ZHHNV
  • 115. Ϯϵ )LJXUH 'LIIHUHQW PRGHV RI WUDQVSRUW DUH XVHG WR DSSURDFK WKH VHUYLFH SURYLGHU )LJXUH ([DPSOH RI HYLGHQFH JDWKHULQJ LQ /DKRUH 3DNLVWDQ )LJXUH 'LVLQIHFWLQJ PDWHULDOV LQ 'RXDOD DPHURRQ
  • 116. ϯϬ 0DLQ ILQGLQJV RI WKH VWXG 7KH PDLQ VWDWLVWLFDO ILQGLQJV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ WDEOH 7DEOH (PSLULFDO ILQGLQJV 3DQLFNHU
  • 117. SRLQWHG RXW WKDW WKH SXUFKDVH RI KDLUFXWWLQJ VHUYLFHV PD EHFRPH OHVV OLNHO ZKHQ WKH KHDG RI WKH SRWHQWLDO FOLHQW RXWJURZV WKH KDLU FRYHULQJ WKDW VDPH KHDG $V WKH DYHUDJH DJH RI FDSDFLW EXLOGLQJ H[SHUWV IURP WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV JRHV XS WKH WUDGH EDODQFH RI JRRGV RI GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV PLJKW LPSURYH WKHUH ZLOO EH IHZHU LPSRUWV RI VFLVVRUV DQG VKDPSRRV
  • 118. ZKLOH WKDW RI VHUYLFH H[SRUWV ZRUVHQV WKHUH ZLOO EH IHZHU KDLUFXWV VROG WR IRUHLJQ YLVLWRUV
  • 119. $ VWDQGDUG JHQW·V KDLUFXW LQ *HQHYD FRVWV DURXQG WR ² ZKLOH LQ /DKRUH 3DNLVWDQ WKH UHVHDUFKHU SDLG DURXQG FHQWV SOXV D SHU FHQW WLS
  • 120. 7KH PHGLDQ SULFH SHU KDLU FXW ZDV :KHUH WKH SULFH ZDV KLJKHU LW ZDV PRUH OLNHO WR ILQG IRUHLJQ ZRUNHUV FXWWLQJ WKH KDLU PDNLQJ XVH RI QDWLRQDOO SURGXFHG PDWHULDOV HJ KLQHVH EDUEHU LQ 7RURQWR DQDGD
  • 121. /RZHU SULFHV ZHUH FKDUJHG LQ WKRVH FRXQWULHV ZKHUH WKH FRLIIHXU RU FRLIIHXVH ZDV ORFDO PDNLQJ XVH RI LPSRUWHG VFLVVRUV RU VKDPSRRV ,Q D QXPEHU RI VPDOOHU FRXQWULHV HJ 0DUVKDOO ,VODQGV 0DOGLYHV RU WKH 8QLWHG $UDE (PLUDWHV
  • 122. ERWK WKH PDWHULDOV DQG WKH VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV ZHUH LPSRUWV RQYHUVDWLRQV ZKHUH SRVVLEOH LQ YLHZ RI GLIIHUHQW ORFDO ODQJXDJHV
  • 123. WHQGHG WR FRQILUP WKDW ZKDWHYHU ZDV WKH JULHYDQFH LW ZDV WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V IDXOW 1RWHV 7KH SHUFHQWDJH VKDUH XQGHU ´JHQGHUµ LV DQ HVWLPDWH DV RQ WZR RFFDVLRQV WKHUH ZDV LQFRPSOHWH LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH SHUFHQWDJH VKDUH XQGHU WDWWRR LV OLNHO WR EH WRR ORZ DV RQO YLVLEOH HYLGHQFH ZDV FRQVLGHUHG RQFOXVLRQV DQG WKH ZD IRUZDUG 7KH VWXG·V UHVXOWV SRLQW WR WZR LPSRUWDQW OHVVRQV IRU OLIH ´7KH RQO WKLQJ FRQVWDQW LQ OLIH LV FKDQJHµ DWWULEXWHG WR 5RFKHIRXFDXOG ²
  • 124. 7KLV LQFOXGHV WKH HYHUJURZLQJ KDLU RQ PRVW SHRSOH·V KHDGV 81 VWDII EHKDYHV OLNH 7RP 6DZHU·V IULHQGV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI ZKLWHZDVKLQJ D IHQFH 7KH H[SHULHQFH FRQILUPV D ´JUHDW ODZ RI KXPDQ DFWLRQ «
  • 125. WKDW LQ RUGHU WR PDNH D PDQ RU D ER FRYHW D WKLQJ LW LV RQO QHFHVVDU WR PDNH WKH WKLQJ GLIILFXOW 'ĞŶĚĞƌ ŽĨ ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƌ DĂůĞ ϱϯй ĞŵĂůĞ ϰϳй WĞƌƐŽŶĂů ĐŚĂƌĂĐƚĞƌŝƐƚŝĐƐ dĂƚƚŽŽ ϯϯй EŽ dĂƚƚŽŽ ϲϳй EĂƚŝŽŶĂůŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƌ EĂƚŝŽŶĂů ϳϯй ŽƌĞŝŐŶĞƌ Ϯϳй DĂŝŶ ƚŽŽů ƵƐĞĚ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ƐĞƌǀŝĐĞ ĚĞůŝǀĞƌLJ DĂĐŚŝŶĞ Ϯϳй ^ĐŝƐƐŽƌƐ ϲϵй ŶŝĨĞ ϰй
  • 127. 3XW GLIIHUHQWO LW LV DQG ZDV D SULYLOHJH WR ZRUN IRU WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV DQG XQGHUWDNH HPSLULFDO VWXGLHV RQ *$77 DQG *$76 $V UHJDUGV WKH ZD IRUZDUG LI WKH KDLU VWRSV JURZLQJ DOWHUQDWLYH DUHDV RI HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK PD QHHG WR EH IRXQG 7KLV UHVHDUFKHU·V SURSRVDO LV IRU SHGLFXUH ILJXUH
  • 128. )LJXUH 3HGLFXUH LQ 0HGHOOtQ RORPELD 5HIHUHQFHV +RIIPDQQ -
  • 129. ´+DLU XWV ² GRFXPHQWDU HYLGHQFH EHWZHHQ 7HKUDQ 1·'MDPHQD DQG 4XHUpWDURµ KWWSVSLFDVDZHEJRRJOHFRP+DLUXWVDXWKNH *YV5J.:]S*Y=/ )J 3DQLFNHU 0
  • 130. ´2Q WKH QHJDWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH JURZWK RI PHQ DQG WKH JURZWK RI KDLU ² ZKHQ P KHDG VWDUWHG WR RXWJURZ LWV FRYHUµ 8QSXEOLVKHG PLPHR 0HGHOOLQ 7ZDLQ 0
  • 131. ´7RP 6DZHU :KLWHZDVKLQJ WKH )HQFHµ 7KH $GYHQWXUHV RI 7RP 6DZHU KWWSVZZZSEVRUJPDUNWZDLQOHDUQPRUHZULWLQJVBWRPKWPO :72 D
  • 132. ´*$77 DQG WKH *RRGV RXQFLOµ :RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ *HQHYD KWWSVZZZZWRRUJHQJOLVKWUDWRSBHJDWWBHJDWWBHKWP :72 E
  • 133. ´7KH *HQHUDO $JUHHPHQW RQ 7UDGH LQ 6HUYLFHV *$76
  • 135. ϯϮ /LVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV 3UHGUDJ %MHOLü 3URIHVVRU RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH DQG +HDG RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO (FRQRPLF 5HODWLRQV 'HSDUWPHQW 8QLYHUVLW RI %HOJUDGH )DFXOW RI (FRQRPLFV %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 3LHUJLXVHSSH )RUWXQDWR (FRQRPLF $IIDLUV 2IILFHU 'LYLVLRQ RQ *OREDOL]DWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 6WUDWHJLHV 817$' *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG 7RUEM|UQ )UHGULNVVRQ KLHI ,7 $QDOVLV 6HFWLRQ 'LYLVLRQ RQ 7HFKQRORJ DQG /RJLVWLFV 817$' *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG 0DULD $OHMDQGUD *RQ]DOH]3HUH] )XOO 3URIHVVRU RI 0DQDJHPHQW 8QLYHUVLGDG ($),7 0HGHOOtQ RORPELD -DQ +RIIPDQQ KLHI 7UDGH )DFLOLWDWLRQ 6HFWLRQ 'LYLVLRQ RQ 7HFKQRORJ DQG /RJLVWLFV 817$' *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG .DOPDQ .DORWD (FRQRPLF $IIDLUV 2IILFHU 'LYLVLRQ RQ ,QYHVWPHQW DQG (QWHUSULVH 817$' *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG 0LFKDHO /LP (FRQRPLF $IIDLUV 2IILFHU 6FLHQFH 7HFKQRORJ DQG ,7 %UDQFK 'LYLVLRQ RQ 7HFKQRORJ DQG /RJLVWLFV 817$' *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG -|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