We are cutting FY15 EPS of ITC by 2% while reducing FY16 and FY17 numbers by 3.5‐4.5%. This follows disappointing 3Q as cigarette volumes declined by ~14%. Non cigarette businesses reported 3.3% decline in EBIT.
ITC Q3FY15: Retain accumulate for a target price of 400
1.
ITC
Regulatory headwinds to delay recovery
January 21, 2015
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Q3FY15 Result Update
Amnish Aggarwal
amnishaggarwal@plindia.com
+91‐22‐66322233
Gaurav Jogani
gauravjogani@plindia.com
+91‐22‐66322238
Rating Accumulate
Price Rs353
Target Price Rs400
Implied Upside 13.3%
Sensex 28,889
Nifty 8,730
(Prices as on January 21, 2015)
Trading data
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 2,787.0
Shares o/s (m) 7,901.8
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 5350.8
Major shareholders
Promoters 0.00%
Foreign 20.29%
Domestic Inst. 34.81%
Public & Other 44.90%
Stock Performance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute (4.4) 0.8 7.2
Relative (9.9) (11.5) (28.8)
How we differ from Consensus
EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff.
2016 14.3 14.9 ‐3.9
2017 16.5 17.2 ‐4.1
Price Performance (RIC: ITC.BO, BB: ITC IN)
Source: Bloomberg
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan‐14
Mar‐14
May‐14
Jul‐14
Sep‐14
Nov‐14
Jan‐15
(Rs)
We are cutting FY15 EPS of ITC by 2% while reducing FY16 and FY17 numbers by
3.5‐4.5%. This follows disappointing 3Q as cigarette volumes declined by ~14%.
Non cigarette businesses reported 3.3% decline in EBIT. We expect delayed volume
recovery in cigarette business given 1) impending budget in Feb 2015 2) regulatory
headwinds like implementation of pictorial warnings and ban on sale of loose
cigarettes and 3) consumer downtrading from strategically important RSFT
segment. We now factor in 7% volume decline in FY15 (worst since 8.4% decline of
FY2002), flat volumes in Fy16 and 3% growth in FY17. We expect non cigarette EBIT
growth to accelerate from current levels led by margin expansion across
categories. We expect the underperformance to sustain given impending budget
and regulatory headwinds, even as valuations at 21.4xFY17 are at steep discount
to most consumer names. We value the stock at Rs400 based on Dec2016 EPS, an
upside of 13%. Retain ‘Accumulate’.
Cigarettes volumes decline ~14%: Cigarette business reported 8.8% EBIT growth
with 530bps EBIT margin expansion, volumes declined by ~14%. We believe that
sharp excise increase (75%) and VAT (165%) in past 3 years has impacted the
volumes. 3Q impact was heightened by VAT increase in TN, Kerala and Assam
which account for 30% of volumes. ITC has also been hit by downtrading from
RSFT segment to 64mm cigarettes led by successive price increases in the past 3
years. We expect delayed recovery in volumes given strong regulatory
headwinds in the near term.
Non‐cigarette business’ EBIT decline 3.3%: FMCG sales grew 11.4%; it has
reported EBIT of Rs115m with flat margins. Hotels reported an EBIT of Rs287m
(post Rs126m additional depreciation) due to decline in ARR and cost of new
hotels. Paperboard sales declined by 4.7%, EBIT declined by 7.7% as margins
declined by 60bps. Agri business sales declined 10.6%; EBIT increased by 16.3%
as higher realisation from leaf Tobacco and lower Soya exports improved mix.
Key financials (Y/e March) 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Revenues (Rs m) 332,386 372,030 416,556 477,437
Growth (%) 11.2 11.9 12.0 14.6
EBITDA (Rs m) 122,969 138,559 160,167 185,022
PAT (Rs m) 86,503 98,202 115,314 134,278
EPS (Rs) 10.9 12.3 14.3 16.5
Growth (%) 15.9 12.7 16.6 15.6
Net DPS (Rs) 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.5
Profitability & Valuation 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
EBITDA margin (%) 37.0 37.2 38.5 38.8
RoE (%) 35.6 35.4 36.7 37.2
RoCE (%) 35.6 35.4 36.7 37.2
EV / sales (x) 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.5
EV / EBITDA (x) 22.0 19.3 16.6 14.2
PE (x) 32.4 28.8 24.7 21.4
P / BV (x) 10.7 9.7 8.5 7.4
Net dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7
Source: Company Data; PL Research
2.
January 21, 2015 2
ITC
Exhibit 1: Q3FY15 Result Overview (Rs m); Net sales growth at 2.5%; Adj. PAT up by 10.5%, Cigarettes volumes decline by ~14%
Y/e March Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY gr. (%) Q2FY14 9MFY15 9MFY14 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 89,426 87,269 2.5 90,237 272,146 240,001 13.4
Gross profit 54,650 52,875 3.4 54,686 162,043 147,134 10.1
Margins (%) 61.1 60.6 60.6 59.5 61.3
Other Exp 20,008 20,032 (0.1) 19,799 59,739 56,198 6.3
EBITDA 34,642 32,843 5.5 34,887 102,304 90,935 12.5
Margins (%) 38.7 37.6 38.7 37.6 37.9
Depreciation 2,376 2,259 5.2 2,432 7,122 6,621 7.6
Interest 84 91 (8.4) 184 419 282 48.7
Other Income 5,820 3,911 48.8 3,562 11,728 8,404 39.5
PBT 38,002 34,403 10.5 35,833 106,491 92,437 15.2
Tax 11,652 10,550 10.4 11,581 34,026 28,686 18.6
Rate (%) 30.7 30.7 32.3 32.0 31.0
Adj. PAT 26,350 23,853 10.5 24,252 72,466 63,751 13.7
Reported PAT 26,350 23,853 10.5 24252 72,466 65,072 11.4
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 2: Q3FY15 Sales mix: Share of FMCG slowly inching up
Cigarettes
43.2%
FMCG
24.1%
Hotels
3.4%
Agri
business
16.7%
Paper and
packaging
12.5%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 3: Q3FY15: Cigarettes are 85.4% of EBIT
Cigarettes
85.4%
FMCG
0.3%
Hotels
0.8%
Agri
business
7.1%
Paper and
packaging
6.3%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Net sales have increased by 2.5% to Rs89.4bn. Gross margins have increased by
50bps due to lower proportion of low margin Agri products in total sales. EBITDA
margin was up by 110bps YoY to 38.7% due to 60bps decline in Other expenditure.
EBITDA increased by 5.5% to Rs34.6bn. PBT increased by 10.5% to Rs38 bn as
increase in depreciation by 5% YoY was more than neutralised by 48.8% increase in
other income. Adj. PAT increased by 10.5% to Rs26.3bn .
4.
January 21, 2015 4
ITC
Cigarette volumes down by ~14%; outlook bleak
Cigarette business reported 0.6% increase in net sales and 8.8% increase in EBIT
as margins expanded 530bps. Volumes were down by ~14% as 75% increase in
excise duty and 165% increase in VAT in past 3 years started impacting sales. We
note that most brands have seen 50‐60% increase in prices in the past 3 years.
ITC volume decline was also accelerated by increase in VAT (10%) in Tamilnadu,
Kerala and Assam, we note that these states account for 30% of ITC’s volumes.
Apparently ITC had to undertake another round of price increase in these states,
the impact of which will be reflected fully in 4QFY15.
Cigarette business has also seen downtrading as strategically important RSFT
segment has seen downtrading to 64mm cigarettes despite 72% increase in
excise in that segment. we believe this a new trend as cigarettes are known to
have brand stickiness and have rarely seen sharp downtrading in the past.
We believe that upcoming budget and various regulatory issues will continue to
have impact on ITC in the near term. We expect cigarette volume recovery to be
delayed, although volume growth might have bottomed out. Consequently we
now factor in 7% decline in volumes in FY15 and flat volumes in FY16. We note
that any sharp increase in excise duty this year will have significantly magnified
impact on the ability of ITC to report steady increase in profit growth in FY16.
Exhibit 5: Volumes continue to decline on steep price increases
1.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
‐1.5
‐3.7
‐2 ‐2.5 ‐2.5 ‐4
‐14‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
(%)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 6: Cigarette margins up 300bps
61.1
64.4
69.7
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
EBIT Margins (%)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
FMCG sales up 11.4% with market share increase across board
FMCG sales grew by 11.4% to Rs23.1bn, while it reported EBIT of Rs115m.
Although overall demand has been impacted due to slowdown across segments.
‘Aashiward’ atta sustained high growth, sales mix improved with higher growth
of premium variants like ‘Multigrain’ and ‘Select’. Sunfeast ‘Mom’s Magic’
premium cookies and ‘Sunfeast Yipee’ gained market share.
5.
January 21, 2015 5
ITC
ITC has launched ‘Sunfeast Yumfills Whoopie pie’ – a premium
chocolate‐enrobed cake and “B‐Natural” brand of fruit juices in select markets.
Personal care segment continue to suffer as discretionary segments like hair care
and skin care continue to suffer. Engage range of deodorants along with the
recently launched ‘Cologne’ variant grew at rapid pace.
Exhibit 7: FMCG sales up 11.4%; EBIT at RS115m
17,827
20,362
17,447
19,622
20,778
23,145
19,346
21,960
23,141
(240)
119
(189)
(127)
104
431
(156)
(103)
115
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
Sales EBIT (RHS)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Agri sales decline 10.3%, margins expands 345 bps
Agri business sales declined 10.3%, EBIT expanded by 16.3% to Rs2.38bn as
margins expanded by 345bps to 14.9%. Improved sales mix and higher
realizations from Leaf Tobacco boosted margins.
Sales growth declined due to lack of export opportunity in soya due to bumper
crop in Brazil, USA and Argentina
Exhibit 8: Agri business EBIT margins expands on improved sales mix
11.5
14.9
19.0 16.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
EBIT Margins (%) EBIT Growth (%)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
6.
January 21, 2015 6
ITC
Paperboard and Paper: Sales up 4.7%, EBIT margins decline 60bps
Paper business reported 4.7% decline in sales and 7.7% decline in EBIT as
margins declined by 60bps. Slowdown in FMCG and Cigarette industry impacted
sales growth. paperboard prices increased 5%, input costs were steady.
New pulp unit got commissioned in Q3FY15 increasing the capacity by 30000
MT; ITC is implementing another pulp line of 1,00000MT and captive power
plant which will boost margins post FY16.
Exhibit 9: Sales under pressure due to slowdown in FMCG and Cigarette industry
21.5
17.8
21.6
18.7 18.4
14.9
21.3
18.9 17.8
8.5 7.9
12.3 11.3
18.5 19.3
10.8 8.9
‐4.7
‐10.0
‐5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
EBIT Margins (%) Sales growth %
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Hotels: low occupancy and ARR continue to impact profitability
Hotels business has reported sales growth of 4.7% and profit of Rs287m due to
change in the useful life of assets for depreciation. Excluding this impact, EBIT is
likely to be at Rs412m, a decline of 33%.
Occupancy levels during the quarter increased to 70% as the demand conditions
are improving gradually. ARR (Average revenue per room) however declined in
low single digits.
Super premium luxury Classic gold resort near Gurgaon started operations in
Q3FY15.
We expect occupancy levels to remain strong in the medium term as economic
recovery and various other initiatives of the GOI increase the tourist flow.
However recovery in ARR is still a few quarters away.
7.
January 21, 2015 7
ITC
Exhibit 10: Hotels: Margin decline as ARR falls and new hotels add to the gestation cost
2,170
3,095
3,155
2,499
2,470
3,154
3,205
2,487
2,616
153
555
406
89
87
622
599
(121)
(96)
7.1
17.9
12.9
3.6 3.5
19.7 18.7
‐4.9 ‐3.7
‐10.0
‐5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
(Rs m)
Sales EBIT EBIT Margins (%) (RHS)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 11: Cutting FY16 and FY17 EPS by 3.5‐4.5%
FY16 FY17
Earlier New % Chng. Earlier New % Chng.
Net Sales (Rs m) 434,346 416,556 (4.1) 496,282 477,437 (3.8)
% Growth 16.2 12.0 14.3 14.6
EBITDA (Rs m) 168,194 160,167 (4.8) 195,846 185,022 (5.5)
% Growth 18.3 15.6 16.4 15.5
Margin (%) 39.1 38.9 39.9 39.2
Adj. PAT (Rs m) 119,185 115,314 (3.2) 140,339 134,278 (4.3)
% Growth 19.4 17.4 17.7 16.4
EPS (Rs) 14.8 14.3 (3.5) 17.3 16.5 (4.6)
Source: PL Research
9.
January 21, 2015 9
ITC
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Revenue 332,386 372,030 416,556 477,437
Raw Material Expenses 131,563 145,514 160,566 182,909
Gross Profit 200,823 226,515 255,990 294,529
Employee Cost 16,084 17,931 20,077 23,023
Other Expenses 61,770 70,026 75,747 86,483
EBITDA 122,969 138,559 160,167 185,022
Depr. & Amortization 8,999 9,593 10,400 11,255
Net Interest (10,694) (13,972) (18,078) (21,681)
Other Income 11,071 14,452 18,558 22,161
Profit before Tax 124,664 142,938 167,845 195,449
Total Tax 38,161 44,736 52,531 61,170
Profit after Tax 86,503 98,202 115,314 134,278
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 2,698 — — —
Adj. PAT 86,503 98,202 115,314 134,278
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 7,953.2 8,013.2 8,073.2 8,133.2
EPS (Rs.) 10.9 12.3 14.3 16.5
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
C/F from Operations 77,278 108,058 112,556 126,551
C/F from Investing (38,124) (55,752) (59,209) 66,610
C/F from Financing (44,704) (50,009) (57,836) (217,516)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash (5,550) 2,298 (4,490) (24,355)
Opening Cash 2,012 2,347 2,776 4,567
Closing Cash (3,538) 4,645 (1,714) (5,394)
FCFF 69,423 108,007 115,665 131,597
FCFE 69,312 108,118 115,665 131,597
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Growth
Revenue (%) 11.2 11.9 12.0 14.6
EBITDA (%) 15.7 12.7 15.6 15.5
PAT (%) 16.6 13.5 17.4 16.4
EPS (%) 15.9 12.7 16.6 15.6
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 37.0 37.2 38.5 38.8
PAT Margin (%) 26.0 26.4 27.7 28.1
RoCE (%) 35.6 35.4 36.7 37.2
RoE (%) 35.6 35.4 36.7 37.2
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) 77 64 64 65
Valuation
PER (x) 32.4 28.8 24.7 21.4
P / B (x) 10.7 9.7 8.5 7.4
EV / EBITDA (x) 22.0 19.3 16.6 14.2
EV / Sales (x) 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.5
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 30.6 31.3 31.3 31.3
Other Inc / PBT 8.9 10.1 11.1 11.3
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8
FCFE / PAT 80.1 110.1 100.3 98.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Shareholder's Funds 262,620 292,291 335,807 386,041
Total Debt 665 777 777 777
Other Liabilities 12,970 13,063 13,196 13,374
Total Liabilities 276,255 306,130 349,779 400,191
Net Fixed Assets 143,085 139,035 145,635 152,380
Goodwill — — — —
Investments 25,122 25,122 25,122 25,122
Net Current Assets 108,049 141,974 179,023 222,690
Cash & Equivalents 96,006 146,644 190,644 238,374
Other Current Assets 128,081 128,871 141,192 159,426
Current Liabilities 116,039 133,541 152,813 175,111
Other Assets — — — —
Total Assets 276,255 306,130 349,779 400,191
Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15
Net Revenue 92,385 92,483 90,237 89,426
EBITDA 32,034 32,776 34,887 34,642
% of revenue 34.7 35.4 38.7 38.7
Depr. & Amortization 2,378 2,313 2,432 2,376
Net Interest 95 152 184 84
Other Income 2,667 2,346 3,562 5,820
Profit before Tax 32,227 32,657 35,833 38,002
Total Tax 9,447 10,793 11,581 11,652
Profit after Tax 22,780 21,864 24,252 26,350
Adj. PAT 22,780 21,864 24,252 26,350
Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Cigarette Volume growth % (2.5) (7.1) — 4.2
Cigarette EBIT growth % 20.3 15.4 14.3 15.3
FMCG EBIT (rsm) 218.2 275.1 1,079.8 1,917.5
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
10.
January 21, 2015 10
ITC
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3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
42.5%
37.9%
18.4%
1.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month
Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES
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