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Daily Commodity Report as on Friday, January 23, 2015
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1
Open High Low Close % Cng OI
Gold 27941 28236 27751 28036 0.21 8044
Silver 39795 40438 39401 40079 0.39 10302
Alum. 115.6 116.55 114.3 114.4 -1.08 2066
Copper 355.75 357.6 349.6 350.95 -1.72 15304
Lead 116.85 117.1 114.9 115.05 -1.83 1903
Nickel 925.1 933.4 888.8 904 -2.09 4411
Zinc 131.25 132.8 130.75 131.1 -0.27 2932
Crude 2947 3048 2851 2891 -1.93 39105
Nat. Gas 181.7 187.9 170.1 172.2 -4.01 6759
Chana 27941 28236 27751 28036 0.21 8044
Cardamom 1011 1023 986.3 993.6 -1.40 1029
Turmeric 8612 8700 8422 8504 -1.07 35345
Jeera 16250 16520 15800 15960 -1.48 15108
Dhaniya 7475 7714 7431 7714 3.99 14220
Wheat 1677 1677 1641 1656 -0.72 3160
Soyabean 3395 3416 3346 3359 -1.00 76760
Ref. Oil 637 637.8 624.1 625 -1.87 69365
CPO 445.7 445.7 436.1 438.4 -1.64 1082
RMSeed 3447 3480 3414 3431 -0.41 38960
Menthol 740 741 728.1 732.1 -0.87 7420
Cotton 14320 14410 14110 14160 -1.39 3071
USDINR 61.73 61.80 61.52 61.73 0.02 1076523
EURINR 71.60 71.83 71.41 71.78 0.44 30084
GBPINR 93.25 93.77 93.16 93.67 0.35 19266
JPYINR 52.20 52.55 52.04 52.48 -0.04 15084
Market Round upPrecious Metals
Gold turned higher after the ECB unveiled a government bond-buying program at the conclusion of its highly-
anticipated policy meeting.
Base Metal
Silver rebounded after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting demand for the metal as a
store of value.
Crude oil tumbled after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build in U.S. crude stocks in at
least 14 years.
Natural gas prices dropped on forecasts for milder weather that would curtail demand for the heating fuel.
Ref soyoil ended with losses as the ongoing rains and weakness in International markets kept market sentiments
down.Cereals
Mentha oil prices dropped amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot market.
Oil and Oilseeds & Others
Soyabean prices dropped on weak demand for the crop in domestic and international market and on higher supply of
the crop.
Energy Copper prices dropped as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing inventories and as consumers waited
for weaker prices.
Zinc settled down as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank announced Quantitative Easing
overnight.Pulses
Nickel dropped as investors reduced their holdings amid concerns about Europe's economy and the continued
slowdown in China.Spices
Chana prices ended with losses due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position.
Turmeric prices ended with losses on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new season crop.
Currency
Jeera prices ended with losses amidst subdued demand in the spot markets but upside seen limited on an estimated
drop in production.
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2
MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 27941 SUP-2 27523 Gold trading range for the day is 27523-28493.
HIGH 28236 SUP-1 27780
Gold turned higher after the ECB unveiled a government bond-buying program at the
conclusion of its highly-anticipated policy meeting.
LOW 27751 P.P. 28008
The ECB announced that it would launch a €60 billion monthly bond buying program that
would start in March.
Gold settled up 0.21% at 28036 after the European Central Bank unveiled a government bond-buying program at the conclusion of its highly-anticipated policy meeting. The ECB announced that it would launch a €60 billion
monthly bond buying program that would start in March and last until September 2016, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area and boost growth. In total, the program could total €1.08 trillion, much
higher than market expectations for a figure of around €500 billion. The decision came after the ECB held its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.05%. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing
for initial jobless benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week from the previous week’s total of 317,000. In news from the physical markets, Indian gold importers were offering discounts of up to $16 an ounce versus
London prices, the widest in 17 months, on weak demand and expectations of a duty cut. The metal has risen around 10 percent since the beginning of the month, underpinned by higher demand for assets perceived as
safer, mostly driven by economic and political uncertainties in the euro zone. The recent steep climb in gold prices has however worried some investors, who started to take profits in the previous session and were looking at
Sunday's snap election in Greece and next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day policy meeting for clues about the wider macro economic environment. Technically market is under short covering as
market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.04% to settled at 8044, now Gold is getting support at 27780 and below same could see a test of 27523 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28265, a move above
could see prices testing 28493.
MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 39795 SUP-2 38936 Silver trading range for the day is 38936-41010.
CLOSE 28036 RES-1 28265
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless
benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week.
% CNG 0.21 RES-2 28493 BUY GOLD FEB @ 27850 SL 27700 TGT 28050-28250. MCX
HIGH 40438 SUP-1 39508
Silver rebounded after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting
demand for the metal as a store of value.
LOW 39401 P.P. 39973
Investors are returning to precious metals amid concern that U.S. growth won’t be enough
to offset weakness in other countries.
CLOSE 40079 RES-1 40545
Holdings at Ishares Silver Trust gained by 0.33% i.e. 32.76 tonnes to 9931.80 tonnes
from 9899.04 tonnes.
% CNG 0.39 RES-2 41010 BUY SILVER MAR @ 39700 SL 39400 TGT 40100-40450. MCX
Silver settled up 0.39% at 40079 after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial
jobless benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week from the previous week’s total of 317,000. Together with existing schemes to buy private debt and funnel hundreds of billions of euros in cheap loans to banks, the
ECB's new quantitative easing programme will release 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month into the economy, ECB President Mario Draghi said. By September next year, more than 1 trillion euros will have been created
under quantitative easing, the ECB's last remaining major policy option for reviving economic growth and warding off deflation. Silver headed for a bull market in its best start to a year in more than three decades, supported
by speculation that slowing global economic growth will spur demand for havens. Federal Reserve policymakers, already struggling to assure investors that they remain on track for a mid-year interest rate rise, will find the
task has just become harder with their peers in Europe and elsewhere headed in the opposite direction. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by the metal have posted three straight weekly gains, while U.S
government data show money managers raised their net-bullish wagers to the highest since August. Investors are returning to precious metals amid concern that U.S. growth won’t be enough to offset weakness in other
countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.37% to settled at 10302, now Silver is getting support at 39508 and below same could see a test of 38936 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 40545, a move above could see prices testing 41010.
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3
MCX Crudeoil Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 2947 SUP-2 2733 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 2733-3127.
HIGH 3048 SUP-1 2812
Crude oil tumbled after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build
in U.S. crude stocks in at least 14 years.
LOW 2851 P.P. 2930
Crude stocks rose by 10.1 million barrels to a total of 397.9 million, the highest level for
this time of year in at least 80 years, the EIA said.
Crudeoil settled down -1.93% at 2891 after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build in U.S. crude stocks in at least 14 years. Crude stocks rose by 10.1 million barrels to a total of 397.9 million, the
highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years, the EIA said. The inventory build included a 2.91 million barrel rise at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point of the U.S. crude contract. The U.S. supply glut has been a
major contributing factor to the 60 percent decline in oil prices over the past several months. Adding further pressure to prices on Thursday was a bond-buying program announced by the European Central Bank to bolster
the euro zone economy. ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would buy 60 billion euros ($69 billion) of government bonds a month until the end of September 2016, exceeding market expectations. Oil prices will
rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel because a collapse since June isn’t merited by global supply and demand, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. Producers outside the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid a surplus that’s pushed crude below $50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview. Non-OPEC nations, some of which require prices of $100 a barrel to
sustain output, should be first to pull back as their production has expanded over the past decade while OPEC’s remained stable, El-Badri said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open
interest by 5.02% to settled at 39105 while prices down -57 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 2812 and below same could see a test of 2733 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3009, a move above could
see prices testing 3127.
MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 355.8 SUP-2 344.7 Copper trading range for the day is 344.7-360.7.
CLOSE 2891 RES-1 3009
Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel, OPEC’s
Secretary-General said.
% CNG -1.93 RES-2 3127 BUY CRUDE OIL FEB @ 2850-2870 SL BELOW 2820 TGT 2895-2920-2960.MCX (BTST)
HIGH 357.6 SUP-1 347.8
Copper prices dropped as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing
inventories and as consumers waited for weaker prices.
LOW 349.6 P.P. 352.7
Pressure also seen as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future
demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.
CLOSE 351.0 RES-1 355.8
Also weighing on copper was news that investment this year by Chinese State Grid will
rise 9 percent not the 24 percent previously expected
% CNG -1.72 RES-2 360.7 SELL COPPER FEB @ 354.75-356 SL ABV 359.80 TGT 351.60-349.20-346.50. MCX (STBT)
Copper settled down -1.72% at 350.95 as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing inventories and as consumers waited for weaker prices. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange rose 5,925 tonnes to
225,375 tonnes, bringing the increase this month to 27 percent. The red metal is down by over 10% so far in January as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future demand prospects dampened the
appeal of the commodity. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global growth forecast to 3.5% from a previous estimate of 3.8% earlier in the week, citing slowing economies in China, Russia, the euro zone and
Japan. Also weighing on copper was news that investment this year by the Chinese State Grid will rise 9 percent not the 24 percent previously expected, after last year's investment figure was released on Thursday and was
higher than originally reported. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued 50 billion yuan worth of new three-month loans to mid- and small-sized banks in addition to the more than 269.5 billion yuan of similar loans
that have expired, the central bank announced. The cash injection for the banks is the second such step in two weeks. The PBoC said on Friday last week that it would lend banks 50 billion yuan at a discounted rate for loans
meant to be lent to small businesses and farmers. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.59% to settled at 15304 while prices down -6.15 rupee, now Copper is getting
support at 347.8 and below same could see a test of 344.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 355.8, a move above could see prices testing 360.7.
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 4
MCX Zinc Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 131.3 SUP-2 129.5 Zinc trading range for the day is 129.5-133.7.
HIGH 132.8 SUP-1 130.4
Zinc settled down as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank
announced Quantitative Easing overnight.
LOW 130.8 P.P. 131.6
US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 16 were reported at 307,000, higher
than expectations and above 300,000 for a third straight week.
Zinc settled down -0.27% at 131.1 as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank announced Quantitative Easing overnight. Base metals markets should experience technical corrections after the launch of QE
by the ECB resulted in a rally on Thursday. HSBC’s preliminary China manufacturing PMI for January, due for release on Friday, is expected to come in down from December, which should put a dent in base metals prices.
The European Central Bank announced to launch an EUR 60 billion/month purchase program through December 2016, starting from March this year at its Thursday’s meeting. US initial jobless claims for the week ending
January 16 were reported at 307,000, higher than expectations and above 300,000 for a third straight week. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.8% MoM in November, beating a 0.3% increase expected. The index for
October climbed a revised 0.4% as against the initial estimate of a 0.6% rise. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose for four days in a row to hit a new high for the year, but the euro was weighed down, driving up the US
dollar index to 94, its highest over the past 11 years. LME zinc prices failed to break through USD 2,160/mt, then fell back to RMB 2,140/mt, and closing at USD 2,143/mt, up USD 12/mt or 0.56%. Trading volumes were
down 420 to 9,118 lots, and total positions decreased 2,149 to over 286,999. LME zinc inventories fell 3,275 to 649,400 mt.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -
1.81% to settled at 2932 while prices down -0.35 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 130.4 and below same could see a test of 129.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 132.5, a move above could see prices
testing 133.7.
MCX Nickel Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 925.1 SUP-2 864.1 Nickel trading range for the day is 864.1-953.3.
CLOSE 131.1 RES-1 132.5 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 300 tonnes.
% CNG -0.27 RES-2 133.7 SELL ZINC JAN BELOW 130.50 SL 131.60 TGT 129.60-128.60-127.80. MCX
HIGH 933.4 SUP-1 884.0
Nickel dropped as investors reduced their holdings amid concerns about Europe's economy
and the continued slowdown in China.
LOW 888.8 P.P. 908.7
Recent data showed China's economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than two
decades last year.
CLOSE 904.0 RES-1 928.6
Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by
9.75% to settled at 4411
% CNG -2.09 RES-2 953.3 SELL NICKEL JAN @ 905 SL 920 TGT 894-882. MCX
Nickel settled down -2.09% at 904 as investors reduced their holdings of the economically sensitive asset amid concerns about Europe's economy and the continued slowdown in China. Recent data showed China's economy
expanded at its slowest pace in more than two decades last year, and authorities in Beijing have signalled plans for further slowing. Mario Draghi led the European Central Bank into a new era, committing to a quantitative
easing program worth at least 1.1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to counter the threat of a deflationary spiral. The ECB president shrugged off determined opposition led by German officials with a pledge to buy 60 billion euros
every month through September next year in a once-and-for-all push to put more cash into circulation and revive inflation. To assuage critics, the region’s 19 national central banks will make 80 percent of the purchases and
take on any risk they carry. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued 50 billion yuan worth of new three-month loans to mid- and small-sized banks in addition to the more than 269.5 billion yuan of similar loans that
have expired, the central bank announced. The cash injection for the banks is the second such step in two weeks. The PBoC said that it would lend banks 50 billion yuan at a discounted rate for loans meant to be lent to small
businesses and farmers. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.75% to settled at 4411 while prices down -19.3 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 884 and below
same could see a test of 864.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 928.6, a move above could see prices testing 953.3.
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5
NCDEX Chana Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 3355 SUP-2 3225 Chana trading range for the day is 3225-3405.
HIGH 3371 SUP-1 3259
Chana prices ended with losses due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample
stocks position.
LOW 3281 P.P. 3315
Rains in growing areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP kept trend weak for Chana as that is
beneficial for the standing crop.
Chana settled down by -2.28% at 3294 due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. However, expectation of lower output from the major producing belts, capped some losses in chana prices to
some extent. Rains in growing areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP kept trend weak for Chana as that is beneficial for the standing crop. With forecasts of more rains in next 1-2 days, some more short term corrections not ruled
out. However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a pickup in demand at the lower levels are likely to support the prices in coming weeks. According to Ministry of Agriculture, total rabi pulses acreage till now is down
by 11% to 133.41 lakh hectare (Ha.) as compared with last year’s area coverage of 149.17 lakh hectare during the corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down by 16% to 81.98 Lakh Ha against 98.16
lakh ha. in same corresponding week during last year. The chana 2014-15 planted area is down in major producing states Madhya Pradesh (-17%), Andhra Pradesh(-30%),Maharashtra (-25%), Karnataka (6%) and Uttar
Pradesh (5%). Meanwhile, according to Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) total acreage in Australia was down by 33% to 339,000 hectare as compared to previous year. In Delhi spot market,
chana dropped by -31.8 rupee to end at 3368.2 rupee per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.65% to settled at 107510 while prices down -77 rupee, now
Chana is getting support at 3259 and below same could see a test of 3225 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3349, a move above could see prices testing 3405.
NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 8612 SUP-2 8264 Turmeric trading range for the day is 8264-8820.
CLOSE 3294 RES-1 3349 NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 701 tonnes to 37008 tonnes.
% CNG -2.28 RES-2 3405 SELL CHANA FEB @ 3330 SL 3370 TGT 3280-3240. NCDEX
HIGH 8700 SUP-1 8384
Turmeric prices ended with losses on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new
season crop.
LOW 8422 P.P. 8542
Reports of damage to standing crop in TN, AP and Maharashtra also attributed to the
prices getting strong support here.
CLOSE 8504 RES-1 8662 NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 89 tonnes to 158 tonnes.
% CNG -1.07 RES-2 8820 BUY TURMERIC APR ABV 8520 SL 8400 TGT 8640-8750. NCDEX
Turmeric settled down by -1.07% at 8504 on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new season crop. Pressure also seen as higher arrivals in the mandis from the on-going harvesting kept pressure on the market
sentiments. A fall in sowing area and delayed arrival of the new crop due to delayed Monsoon last year keeps overall market sentiments firm. Reports of damage to standing crop in TN, AP and Maharashtra also attributed to
the prices getting strong support here. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka recorded lower acreage in turmeric last year, down 6-10 per cent year-on-year due to delayed monsoon and poor price realisation last year. Meanwhile,
acreage in Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana), has gone up by 8-10 per cent, compared with last year, along with concerns over crop loss due to cyclone Hudhud that hit the State in October. Quality turmeric was sold at
a higher price. Local turmeric increased by Rs. 150-Rs. 200 a quintal. For the second day, only 30 bags of new medium variety turmeric arrived for sale, which was sold at a lower price. But fine variety old hybrid finger
turmeric sold at a higher price. Of the 1,700 bags that arrived, only 50 per cent was sold. Arrival of new turmeric in Nizamabad market increased and 3,000 bags arrived. But prices were at a par with the same as in the
Erode markets. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7961.1 rupees gained 8.6 rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.59% to settled at
35345, now Turmeric is getting support at 8384 and below same could see a test of 8264 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 8662, a move above could see prices testing 8820.
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6
MCX Menthaoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 740.0 SUP-2 720.8 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 720.8-746.6.
HIGH 741.0 SUP-1 726.4 Menthaoil spot is at 862/-. Spot market is down by Rs.4/-.
LOW 728.1 P.P. 733.7
Mentha oil prices dropped amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot
market.
CLOSE 732.1 RES-1 739.3
Ample stock positions in the physical market due to increased arrivals from Chandausi in
Uttar Pradesh also influenced prices.
% CNG -0.87 RES-2 746.6 BUY MENTHA JAN ABV 735 SL 726 TGT 742-750-762. MCX
350.95 131.1 904.0 114.4
Mentha oil settled down by -0.87% at 732.1 amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot market. Besides, ample stock positions in the physical market due to increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh
too influenced mentha oil prices. Rains in growing state of UP kept possibilities of better sowing this year and keep uptrend limited. The sowing is set to start from February onwards. Rains at this time would be beneficial for
the crop sowing. Demand from pharmaceutical Industries and rise in exports could support the prices at the lower levels. At Bareilly market sources reported arrivals at 2 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous
day’s arrival. At Rampur market estimated market supply was at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 50 Drums(1-drum-
180kg), lower by 10 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. At Sambhal market sources reported arrivals at 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), down by 10 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. As per
the Latest reports from Spice Board indicate that for the period April/December last year, exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at 17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs
2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the previous year. Prices had been in corrective mode since last 3years after Govt stated banning of Gutkha in some states which continues having negative impact on Mentha Oil demand.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.74% to settled at 7420 while prices down -6.4 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 726.4 and below same could see a
test of 720.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 739.3, a move above could see prices testing 746.6.
DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY
COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD
115.1
28265 40545 3009 183.3
CLOSE 28036 40079 2891 172.2
355.8 132.5 928.6 115.9
131.6 908.7 115.1
RESISTANCE
28750 41582 3206 201.1 363.8 134.6 973.2 118.1
28493 41010 3127 194.5 360.7 133.7 953.3 117.3
P. POINT 28008 39973 2930 176.7 352.7
27295 38471 2615 147.7 339.8
SUPPORT 27523 38936 2733 158.9 344.7 864.1 112.9
27780 39508 2812 165.5 347.8
OI 8044 10302 39105 6759 15304 2932 4411 2066
128.3 839.4 111.5
130.4 884.0 113.7
129.5
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 7
Positive Positive
SPREAD 129 650 73.00 1.00 4.20 0.65 6.70
TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive
0.35
118.7
117.9
116.5
112.1
113.5
114.3
1903
115.7
1.2
1:30pm EUR 48.1 47.5
1:30pm EUR 50.9 50.6
2:00pm EUR 51.8 51.2
2:00pm EUR 52.6 51.4
2:30pm EUR 51 50.6
2:30pm EUR 52.1 51.9
Day 3 ALL 0 0
7:30pm EUR -6.1 -6.9
8:15pm USD 54.1 53.9
8:30pm USD 5.08M 4.93M
8:30pm USD 0.005 0.006
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Belgian NBB Business Climate
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Existing Home Sales
CB Leading Index m/m
0
0
PREV
Refined copper output in China, the world’s largest producer, surged to a record last year as smelting
capacity expanded amid ample supply from global miners. Production rose 14 percent to 7.96 million
metric tons last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Wednesday in a
statement. Refined copper production increased while the country’s economy last year grew at the
slowest pace since 1990, fueling concern that China’s slowing growth will spur a glut. Smelting
capacity in China rose 13 percent last year to 5.5 million tons while refining capacity grew 10 percent
to 9.96 million tons, Yang said. About 1.05 million tons of smelting capacity and 1 million tons of
refining capacity is scheduled to start this year. Chinese copper smelters were encouraged to increase
output last year after they raised the processing fees that they charge miners by 31 percent. The so-
called treatment and refining charges are deducted from the price smelters pay mining companies for
concentrate, or semi-processed ore. The rates for 2015 jumped another 16 percent. Primary
aluminum production in China grew 7.7 percent to 24.38 million tons last year while zinc output
gained 7 percent to 5.83 million tons, according to the ministry statement. Lead output declined 5.5
percent to 4.22 million tons, it said.
Fri
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
French Flash Services PMI
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
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NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP
Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel because a collapse
since June isn’t merited by global supply and demand, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. Producers
outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid
a surplus that’s pushed crude below $50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview with
Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday. Iraq,
OPEC’s fastest-growing supplier, said it needs to boost output to compensate for revenues eroded by
the price slump. Oil slumped almost 60 percent since June as OPEC nations continued pumping amid
the highest U.S. production in more than three decades. The 12-nation group’s decision on Nov. 27 to
maintain output was based on economics, and wasn’t intended to target U.S. shale drillers, Russia or
any other country, El-Badri said. Non-OPEC nations, some of which require prices of $100 a barrel to
sustain output, should be first to pull back as their production has expanded over the past decade
while OPEC’s remained stable, El-Badri said. OPEC decided in November that, if it cut supply, rising
non-OPEC output would have required it to make successive reductions through to 2016, he said.
Gold importers are offering a discount of up to $16 an ounce versus London prices, the widest in 17
months, as jewellers curtail purchases ahead of a possible cut in the import duty. India, which vies
with China as the world's top gold consumer, raised import taxes on the metal to 10 percent in a
series of hikes to August 2013 as policymakers scrambled to narrow a gaping current account deficit
and arrest a free fall in the currency. Now a falling trade deficit has stoked expectations the
government will cut the import duty in the budget to be presented on Feb. 28. A drop in the duty
could reduce smuggling and increase demand, supporting a rebound in global prices.Industry officials
say the reduction in the duty is quite possible as imports plunged to $1.34 billion in December from
$5.61 billion in November despite scrapping the so-called 80:20 rule mandating traders to export a
fifth of all imported gold.
Palm oil output in Malaysia fell by the most in eight years after floods inundated plantations in the
second-largest producer, according to official data that showed a bigger decline than expected.
Output tumbled 22 percent to 1.36 million metric tons last month from a month earlier, the biggest
drop since December 2006, the Palm Oil Board said. That compares with a 1.46 million-ton estimate
in a survey published last week. Reserves fell 12 percent to 2.01 million tons, lower than the 2.05
million ton median estimate. Exports rose 0.4 percent to 1.52 million tons, while the survey showed a
2 percent drop. Futures surged to a six-month high last week on concerns that the worst floods in
decades in Peninsular Malaysia hurt harvesting, exacerbating the impact of a seasonal decline in
output in the world’s most-used edible oil. The heavier-than-usual monsoon rains displaced hundreds
of thousands, while damaging roads and bridges. Exports dropped 13 percent to 355,846 tons in the
first 10 days of January from the same period a month earlier, surveyor Intertek said. Malaysia’s palm
imports fell 8.7 percent to 90,353 tons last month, board data showed.
A section of growers have urged the government to levy a 30 per cent Customs duty on pulses as
cheaper imports are hindering them from getting remunerative prices for their produce. In a letter to
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Karnataka Pradesh Red Gram Growers Association has asked for a
sustainable policy for pulses to protect farmers' interest while also being consumer friendly. Basavaraj
Ingin, President of the Karnataka Pradesh Red Gram Growers Association, suggested that the
Government impose a duty of 30 per cent in the forthcoming Budget to curb cheaper imports of
pulses. Imposing duty would also curb the foreign exchange outgo, he said. Currently, pulses across
categories are imported into the country at zero duty. Ingin said the price differential between the
domestic and imported pulses is about 30 per cent and the duty should be levied to such an extent.
Further, Ingin said, the government should start supplying pulses through the public distribution
system across the country, while exploring options to incentivise exports to maintain stability in
prices. Karnataka accounts for about a fifth of the tur produced in the country. Recently, hundreds of
farmers staged a protest in Gulbarga, the main tur producing region, demanding Rs. 6,000 a quintal
to cover the rising production costs. Tur prices are currently hovering between Rs. 4,800 and Rs.
5 400 a quintal in the region higher than the minimum support price of Rs 4 350 announced by the
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 8
Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 9

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Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report as on Friday, January 23, 2015 Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1
  • 2. Open High Low Close % Cng OI Gold 27941 28236 27751 28036 0.21 8044 Silver 39795 40438 39401 40079 0.39 10302 Alum. 115.6 116.55 114.3 114.4 -1.08 2066 Copper 355.75 357.6 349.6 350.95 -1.72 15304 Lead 116.85 117.1 114.9 115.05 -1.83 1903 Nickel 925.1 933.4 888.8 904 -2.09 4411 Zinc 131.25 132.8 130.75 131.1 -0.27 2932 Crude 2947 3048 2851 2891 -1.93 39105 Nat. Gas 181.7 187.9 170.1 172.2 -4.01 6759 Chana 27941 28236 27751 28036 0.21 8044 Cardamom 1011 1023 986.3 993.6 -1.40 1029 Turmeric 8612 8700 8422 8504 -1.07 35345 Jeera 16250 16520 15800 15960 -1.48 15108 Dhaniya 7475 7714 7431 7714 3.99 14220 Wheat 1677 1677 1641 1656 -0.72 3160 Soyabean 3395 3416 3346 3359 -1.00 76760 Ref. Oil 637 637.8 624.1 625 -1.87 69365 CPO 445.7 445.7 436.1 438.4 -1.64 1082 RMSeed 3447 3480 3414 3431 -0.41 38960 Menthol 740 741 728.1 732.1 -0.87 7420 Cotton 14320 14410 14110 14160 -1.39 3071 USDINR 61.73 61.80 61.52 61.73 0.02 1076523 EURINR 71.60 71.83 71.41 71.78 0.44 30084 GBPINR 93.25 93.77 93.16 93.67 0.35 19266 JPYINR 52.20 52.55 52.04 52.48 -0.04 15084 Market Round upPrecious Metals Gold turned higher after the ECB unveiled a government bond-buying program at the conclusion of its highly- anticipated policy meeting. Base Metal Silver rebounded after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. Crude oil tumbled after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build in U.S. crude stocks in at least 14 years. Natural gas prices dropped on forecasts for milder weather that would curtail demand for the heating fuel. Ref soyoil ended with losses as the ongoing rains and weakness in International markets kept market sentiments down.Cereals Mentha oil prices dropped amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot market. Oil and Oilseeds & Others Soyabean prices dropped on weak demand for the crop in domestic and international market and on higher supply of the crop. Energy Copper prices dropped as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing inventories and as consumers waited for weaker prices. Zinc settled down as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank announced Quantitative Easing overnight.Pulses Nickel dropped as investors reduced their holdings amid concerns about Europe's economy and the continued slowdown in China.Spices Chana prices ended with losses due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. Turmeric prices ended with losses on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new season crop. Currency Jeera prices ended with losses amidst subdued demand in the spot markets but upside seen limited on an estimated drop in production. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2
  • 3. MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 27941 SUP-2 27523 Gold trading range for the day is 27523-28493. HIGH 28236 SUP-1 27780 Gold turned higher after the ECB unveiled a government bond-buying program at the conclusion of its highly-anticipated policy meeting. LOW 27751 P.P. 28008 The ECB announced that it would launch a €60 billion monthly bond buying program that would start in March. Gold settled up 0.21% at 28036 after the European Central Bank unveiled a government bond-buying program at the conclusion of its highly-anticipated policy meeting. The ECB announced that it would launch a €60 billion monthly bond buying program that would start in March and last until September 2016, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area and boost growth. In total, the program could total €1.08 trillion, much higher than market expectations for a figure of around €500 billion. The decision came after the ECB held its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.05%. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week from the previous week’s total of 317,000. In news from the physical markets, Indian gold importers were offering discounts of up to $16 an ounce versus London prices, the widest in 17 months, on weak demand and expectations of a duty cut. The metal has risen around 10 percent since the beginning of the month, underpinned by higher demand for assets perceived as safer, mostly driven by economic and political uncertainties in the euro zone. The recent steep climb in gold prices has however worried some investors, who started to take profits in the previous session and were looking at Sunday's snap election in Greece and next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day policy meeting for clues about the wider macro economic environment. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.04% to settled at 8044, now Gold is getting support at 27780 and below same could see a test of 27523 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28265, a move above could see prices testing 28493. MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 39795 SUP-2 38936 Silver trading range for the day is 38936-41010. CLOSE 28036 RES-1 28265 The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week. % CNG 0.21 RES-2 28493 BUY GOLD FEB @ 27850 SL 27700 TGT 28050-28250. MCX HIGH 40438 SUP-1 39508 Silver rebounded after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. LOW 39401 P.P. 39973 Investors are returning to precious metals amid concern that U.S. growth won’t be enough to offset weakness in other countries. CLOSE 40079 RES-1 40545 Holdings at Ishares Silver Trust gained by 0.33% i.e. 32.76 tonnes to 9931.80 tonnes from 9899.04 tonnes. % CNG 0.39 RES-2 41010 BUY SILVER MAR @ 39700 SL 39400 TGT 40100-40450. MCX Silver settled up 0.39% at 40079 after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 10,000 to 307,000 last week from the previous week’s total of 317,000. Together with existing schemes to buy private debt and funnel hundreds of billions of euros in cheap loans to banks, the ECB's new quantitative easing programme will release 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month into the economy, ECB President Mario Draghi said. By September next year, more than 1 trillion euros will have been created under quantitative easing, the ECB's last remaining major policy option for reviving economic growth and warding off deflation. Silver headed for a bull market in its best start to a year in more than three decades, supported by speculation that slowing global economic growth will spur demand for havens. Federal Reserve policymakers, already struggling to assure investors that they remain on track for a mid-year interest rate rise, will find the task has just become harder with their peers in Europe and elsewhere headed in the opposite direction. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by the metal have posted three straight weekly gains, while U.S government data show money managers raised their net-bullish wagers to the highest since August. Investors are returning to precious metals amid concern that U.S. growth won’t be enough to offset weakness in other countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.37% to settled at 10302, now Silver is getting support at 39508 and below same could see a test of 38936 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40545, a move above could see prices testing 41010. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3
  • 4. MCX Crudeoil Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 2947 SUP-2 2733 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 2733-3127. HIGH 3048 SUP-1 2812 Crude oil tumbled after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build in U.S. crude stocks in at least 14 years. LOW 2851 P.P. 2930 Crude stocks rose by 10.1 million barrels to a total of 397.9 million, the highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years, the EIA said. Crudeoil settled down -1.93% at 2891 after the Energy Information Administration announced the largest build in U.S. crude stocks in at least 14 years. Crude stocks rose by 10.1 million barrels to a total of 397.9 million, the highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years, the EIA said. The inventory build included a 2.91 million barrel rise at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point of the U.S. crude contract. The U.S. supply glut has been a major contributing factor to the 60 percent decline in oil prices over the past several months. Adding further pressure to prices on Thursday was a bond-buying program announced by the European Central Bank to bolster the euro zone economy. ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank would buy 60 billion euros ($69 billion) of government bonds a month until the end of September 2016, exceeding market expectations. Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel because a collapse since June isn’t merited by global supply and demand, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. Producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid a surplus that’s pushed crude below $50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview. Non-OPEC nations, some of which require prices of $100 a barrel to sustain output, should be first to pull back as their production has expanded over the past decade while OPEC’s remained stable, El-Badri said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.02% to settled at 39105 while prices down -57 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 2812 and below same could see a test of 2733 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3009, a move above could see prices testing 3127. MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 355.8 SUP-2 344.7 Copper trading range for the day is 344.7-360.7. CLOSE 2891 RES-1 3009 Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. % CNG -1.93 RES-2 3127 BUY CRUDE OIL FEB @ 2850-2870 SL BELOW 2820 TGT 2895-2920-2960.MCX (BTST) HIGH 357.6 SUP-1 347.8 Copper prices dropped as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing inventories and as consumers waited for weaker prices. LOW 349.6 P.P. 352.7 Pressure also seen as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity. CLOSE 351.0 RES-1 355.8 Also weighing on copper was news that investment this year by Chinese State Grid will rise 9 percent not the 24 percent previously expected % CNG -1.72 RES-2 360.7 SELL COPPER FEB @ 354.75-356 SL ABV 359.80 TGT 351.60-349.20-346.50. MCX (STBT) Copper settled down -1.72% at 350.95 as oversupply in the market was highlighted by climbing inventories and as consumers waited for weaker prices. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange rose 5,925 tonnes to 225,375 tonnes, bringing the increase this month to 27 percent. The red metal is down by over 10% so far in January as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global growth forecast to 3.5% from a previous estimate of 3.8% earlier in the week, citing slowing economies in China, Russia, the euro zone and Japan. Also weighing on copper was news that investment this year by the Chinese State Grid will rise 9 percent not the 24 percent previously expected, after last year's investment figure was released on Thursday and was higher than originally reported. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued 50 billion yuan worth of new three-month loans to mid- and small-sized banks in addition to the more than 269.5 billion yuan of similar loans that have expired, the central bank announced. The cash injection for the banks is the second such step in two weeks. The PBoC said on Friday last week that it would lend banks 50 billion yuan at a discounted rate for loans meant to be lent to small businesses and farmers. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.59% to settled at 15304 while prices down -6.15 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 347.8 and below same could see a test of 344.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 355.8, a move above could see prices testing 360.7. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 4
  • 5. MCX Zinc Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 131.3 SUP-2 129.5 Zinc trading range for the day is 129.5-133.7. HIGH 132.8 SUP-1 130.4 Zinc settled down as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank announced Quantitative Easing overnight. LOW 130.8 P.P. 131.6 US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 16 were reported at 307,000, higher than expectations and above 300,000 for a third straight week. Zinc settled down -0.27% at 131.1 as prices seen under pressure after the European Central Bank announced Quantitative Easing overnight. Base metals markets should experience technical corrections after the launch of QE by the ECB resulted in a rally on Thursday. HSBC’s preliminary China manufacturing PMI for January, due for release on Friday, is expected to come in down from December, which should put a dent in base metals prices. The European Central Bank announced to launch an EUR 60 billion/month purchase program through December 2016, starting from March this year at its Thursday’s meeting. US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 16 were reported at 307,000, higher than expectations and above 300,000 for a third straight week. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.8% MoM in November, beating a 0.3% increase expected. The index for October climbed a revised 0.4% as against the initial estimate of a 0.6% rise. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose for four days in a row to hit a new high for the year, but the euro was weighed down, driving up the US dollar index to 94, its highest over the past 11 years. LME zinc prices failed to break through USD 2,160/mt, then fell back to RMB 2,140/mt, and closing at USD 2,143/mt, up USD 12/mt or 0.56%. Trading volumes were down 420 to 9,118 lots, and total positions decreased 2,149 to over 286,999. LME zinc inventories fell 3,275 to 649,400 mt.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by - 1.81% to settled at 2932 while prices down -0.35 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 130.4 and below same could see a test of 129.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 132.5, a move above could see prices testing 133.7. MCX Nickel Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 925.1 SUP-2 864.1 Nickel trading range for the day is 864.1-953.3. CLOSE 131.1 RES-1 132.5 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 300 tonnes. % CNG -0.27 RES-2 133.7 SELL ZINC JAN BELOW 130.50 SL 131.60 TGT 129.60-128.60-127.80. MCX HIGH 933.4 SUP-1 884.0 Nickel dropped as investors reduced their holdings amid concerns about Europe's economy and the continued slowdown in China. LOW 888.8 P.P. 908.7 Recent data showed China's economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than two decades last year. CLOSE 904.0 RES-1 928.6 Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.75% to settled at 4411 % CNG -2.09 RES-2 953.3 SELL NICKEL JAN @ 905 SL 920 TGT 894-882. MCX Nickel settled down -2.09% at 904 as investors reduced their holdings of the economically sensitive asset amid concerns about Europe's economy and the continued slowdown in China. Recent data showed China's economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than two decades last year, and authorities in Beijing have signalled plans for further slowing. Mario Draghi led the European Central Bank into a new era, committing to a quantitative easing program worth at least 1.1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to counter the threat of a deflationary spiral. The ECB president shrugged off determined opposition led by German officials with a pledge to buy 60 billion euros every month through September next year in a once-and-for-all push to put more cash into circulation and revive inflation. To assuage critics, the region’s 19 national central banks will make 80 percent of the purchases and take on any risk they carry. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued 50 billion yuan worth of new three-month loans to mid- and small-sized banks in addition to the more than 269.5 billion yuan of similar loans that have expired, the central bank announced. The cash injection for the banks is the second such step in two weeks. The PBoC said that it would lend banks 50 billion yuan at a discounted rate for loans meant to be lent to small businesses and farmers. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.75% to settled at 4411 while prices down -19.3 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 884 and below same could see a test of 864.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 928.6, a move above could see prices testing 953.3. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5
  • 6. NCDEX Chana Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 3355 SUP-2 3225 Chana trading range for the day is 3225-3405. HIGH 3371 SUP-1 3259 Chana prices ended with losses due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. LOW 3281 P.P. 3315 Rains in growing areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP kept trend weak for Chana as that is beneficial for the standing crop. Chana settled down by -2.28% at 3294 due to fall in demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. However, expectation of lower output from the major producing belts, capped some losses in chana prices to some extent. Rains in growing areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP kept trend weak for Chana as that is beneficial for the standing crop. With forecasts of more rains in next 1-2 days, some more short term corrections not ruled out. However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a pickup in demand at the lower levels are likely to support the prices in coming weeks. According to Ministry of Agriculture, total rabi pulses acreage till now is down by 11% to 133.41 lakh hectare (Ha.) as compared with last year’s area coverage of 149.17 lakh hectare during the corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down by 16% to 81.98 Lakh Ha against 98.16 lakh ha. in same corresponding week during last year. The chana 2014-15 planted area is down in major producing states Madhya Pradesh (-17%), Andhra Pradesh(-30%),Maharashtra (-25%), Karnataka (6%) and Uttar Pradesh (5%). Meanwhile, according to Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) total acreage in Australia was down by 33% to 339,000 hectare as compared to previous year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -31.8 rupee to end at 3368.2 rupee per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.65% to settled at 107510 while prices down -77 rupee, now Chana is getting support at 3259 and below same could see a test of 3225 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3349, a move above could see prices testing 3405. NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 8612 SUP-2 8264 Turmeric trading range for the day is 8264-8820. CLOSE 3294 RES-1 3349 NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 701 tonnes to 37008 tonnes. % CNG -2.28 RES-2 3405 SELL CHANA FEB @ 3330 SL 3370 TGT 3280-3240. NCDEX HIGH 8700 SUP-1 8384 Turmeric prices ended with losses on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new season crop. LOW 8422 P.P. 8542 Reports of damage to standing crop in TN, AP and Maharashtra also attributed to the prices getting strong support here. CLOSE 8504 RES-1 8662 NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 89 tonnes to 158 tonnes. % CNG -1.07 RES-2 8820 BUY TURMERIC APR ABV 8520 SL 8400 TGT 8640-8750. NCDEX Turmeric settled down by -1.07% at 8504 on profit-taking and start of supplies from the new season crop. Pressure also seen as higher arrivals in the mandis from the on-going harvesting kept pressure on the market sentiments. A fall in sowing area and delayed arrival of the new crop due to delayed Monsoon last year keeps overall market sentiments firm. Reports of damage to standing crop in TN, AP and Maharashtra also attributed to the prices getting strong support here. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka recorded lower acreage in turmeric last year, down 6-10 per cent year-on-year due to delayed monsoon and poor price realisation last year. Meanwhile, acreage in Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana), has gone up by 8-10 per cent, compared with last year, along with concerns over crop loss due to cyclone Hudhud that hit the State in October. Quality turmeric was sold at a higher price. Local turmeric increased by Rs. 150-Rs. 200 a quintal. For the second day, only 30 bags of new medium variety turmeric arrived for sale, which was sold at a lower price. But fine variety old hybrid finger turmeric sold at a higher price. Of the 1,700 bags that arrived, only 50 per cent was sold. Arrival of new turmeric in Nizamabad market increased and 3,000 bags arrived. But prices were at a par with the same as in the Erode markets. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7961.1 rupees gained 8.6 rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.59% to settled at 35345, now Turmeric is getting support at 8384 and below same could see a test of 8264 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 8662, a move above could see prices testing 8820. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6
  • 7. MCX Menthaoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 740.0 SUP-2 720.8 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 720.8-746.6. HIGH 741.0 SUP-1 726.4 Menthaoil spot is at 862/-. Spot market is down by Rs.4/-. LOW 728.1 P.P. 733.7 Mentha oil prices dropped amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot market. CLOSE 732.1 RES-1 739.3 Ample stock positions in the physical market due to increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also influenced prices. % CNG -0.87 RES-2 746.6 BUY MENTHA JAN ABV 735 SL 726 TGT 742-750-762. MCX 350.95 131.1 904.0 114.4 Mentha oil settled down by -0.87% at 732.1 amid lower demand from consuming industries in the spot market. Besides, ample stock positions in the physical market due to increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too influenced mentha oil prices. Rains in growing state of UP kept possibilities of better sowing this year and keep uptrend limited. The sowing is set to start from February onwards. Rains at this time would be beneficial for the crop sowing. Demand from pharmaceutical Industries and rise in exports could support the prices at the lower levels. At Bareilly market sources reported arrivals at 2 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Rampur market estimated market supply was at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 50 Drums(1-drum- 180kg), lower by 10 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. At Sambhal market sources reported arrivals at 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), down by 10 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. As per the Latest reports from Spice Board indicate that for the period April/December last year, exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at 17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs 2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the previous year. Prices had been in corrective mode since last 3years after Govt stated banning of Gutkha in some states which continues having negative impact on Mentha Oil demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.74% to settled at 7420 while prices down -6.4 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 726.4 and below same could see a test of 720.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 739.3, a move above could see prices testing 746.6. DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD 115.1 28265 40545 3009 183.3 CLOSE 28036 40079 2891 172.2 355.8 132.5 928.6 115.9 131.6 908.7 115.1 RESISTANCE 28750 41582 3206 201.1 363.8 134.6 973.2 118.1 28493 41010 3127 194.5 360.7 133.7 953.3 117.3 P. POINT 28008 39973 2930 176.7 352.7 27295 38471 2615 147.7 339.8 SUPPORT 27523 38936 2733 158.9 344.7 864.1 112.9 27780 39508 2812 165.5 347.8 OI 8044 10302 39105 6759 15304 2932 4411 2066 128.3 839.4 111.5 130.4 884.0 113.7 129.5 Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 7 Positive Positive SPREAD 129 650 73.00 1.00 4.20 0.65 6.70 TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive 0.35 118.7 117.9 116.5 112.1 113.5 114.3 1903 115.7 1.2
  • 8. 1:30pm EUR 48.1 47.5 1:30pm EUR 50.9 50.6 2:00pm EUR 51.8 51.2 2:00pm EUR 52.6 51.4 2:30pm EUR 51 50.6 2:30pm EUR 52.1 51.9 Day 3 ALL 0 0 7:30pm EUR -6.1 -6.9 8:15pm USD 54.1 53.9 8:30pm USD 5.08M 4.93M 8:30pm USD 0.005 0.006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Belgian NBB Business Climate Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales CB Leading Index m/m 0 0 PREV Refined copper output in China, the world’s largest producer, surged to a record last year as smelting capacity expanded amid ample supply from global miners. Production rose 14 percent to 7.96 million metric tons last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Wednesday in a statement. Refined copper production increased while the country’s economy last year grew at the slowest pace since 1990, fueling concern that China’s slowing growth will spur a glut. Smelting capacity in China rose 13 percent last year to 5.5 million tons while refining capacity grew 10 percent to 9.96 million tons, Yang said. About 1.05 million tons of smelting capacity and 1 million tons of refining capacity is scheduled to start this year. Chinese copper smelters were encouraged to increase output last year after they raised the processing fees that they charge miners by 31 percent. The so- called treatment and refining charges are deducted from the price smelters pay mining companies for concentrate, or semi-processed ore. The rates for 2015 jumped another 16 percent. Primary aluminum production in China grew 7.7 percent to 24.38 million tons last year while zinc output gained 7 percent to 5.83 million tons, according to the ministry statement. Lead output declined 5.5 percent to 4.22 million tons, it said. Fri French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI WEF Annual Meetings NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel because a collapse since June isn’t merited by global supply and demand, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. Producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid a surplus that’s pushed crude below $50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday. Iraq, OPEC’s fastest-growing supplier, said it needs to boost output to compensate for revenues eroded by the price slump. Oil slumped almost 60 percent since June as OPEC nations continued pumping amid the highest U.S. production in more than three decades. The 12-nation group’s decision on Nov. 27 to maintain output was based on economics, and wasn’t intended to target U.S. shale drillers, Russia or any other country, El-Badri said. Non-OPEC nations, some of which require prices of $100 a barrel to sustain output, should be first to pull back as their production has expanded over the past decade while OPEC’s remained stable, El-Badri said. OPEC decided in November that, if it cut supply, rising non-OPEC output would have required it to make successive reductions through to 2016, he said. Gold importers are offering a discount of up to $16 an ounce versus London prices, the widest in 17 months, as jewellers curtail purchases ahead of a possible cut in the import duty. India, which vies with China as the world's top gold consumer, raised import taxes on the metal to 10 percent in a series of hikes to August 2013 as policymakers scrambled to narrow a gaping current account deficit and arrest a free fall in the currency. Now a falling trade deficit has stoked expectations the government will cut the import duty in the budget to be presented on Feb. 28. A drop in the duty could reduce smuggling and increase demand, supporting a rebound in global prices.Industry officials say the reduction in the duty is quite possible as imports plunged to $1.34 billion in December from $5.61 billion in November despite scrapping the so-called 80:20 rule mandating traders to export a fifth of all imported gold. Palm oil output in Malaysia fell by the most in eight years after floods inundated plantations in the second-largest producer, according to official data that showed a bigger decline than expected. Output tumbled 22 percent to 1.36 million metric tons last month from a month earlier, the biggest drop since December 2006, the Palm Oil Board said. That compares with a 1.46 million-ton estimate in a survey published last week. Reserves fell 12 percent to 2.01 million tons, lower than the 2.05 million ton median estimate. Exports rose 0.4 percent to 1.52 million tons, while the survey showed a 2 percent drop. Futures surged to a six-month high last week on concerns that the worst floods in decades in Peninsular Malaysia hurt harvesting, exacerbating the impact of a seasonal decline in output in the world’s most-used edible oil. The heavier-than-usual monsoon rains displaced hundreds of thousands, while damaging roads and bridges. Exports dropped 13 percent to 355,846 tons in the first 10 days of January from the same period a month earlier, surveyor Intertek said. Malaysia’s palm imports fell 8.7 percent to 90,353 tons last month, board data showed. A section of growers have urged the government to levy a 30 per cent Customs duty on pulses as cheaper imports are hindering them from getting remunerative prices for their produce. In a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Karnataka Pradesh Red Gram Growers Association has asked for a sustainable policy for pulses to protect farmers' interest while also being consumer friendly. Basavaraj Ingin, President of the Karnataka Pradesh Red Gram Growers Association, suggested that the Government impose a duty of 30 per cent in the forthcoming Budget to curb cheaper imports of pulses. Imposing duty would also curb the foreign exchange outgo, he said. Currently, pulses across categories are imported into the country at zero duty. Ingin said the price differential between the domestic and imported pulses is about 30 per cent and the duty should be levied to such an extent. Further, Ingin said, the government should start supplying pulses through the public distribution system across the country, while exploring options to incentivise exports to maintain stability in prices. Karnataka accounts for about a fifth of the tur produced in the country. Recently, hundreds of farmers staged a protest in Gulbarga, the main tur producing region, demanding Rs. 6,000 a quintal to cover the rising production costs. Tur prices are currently hovering between Rs. 4,800 and Rs. 5 400 a quintal in the region higher than the minimum support price of Rs 4 350 announced by the Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 8
  • 9. Date : Friday, January 23, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 9