Impact Stories is looking at the implications for the sector of the recently announced changes to the right of international students to bring dependants to the UK.

1. International Student Insight:
Implications of changes to the right of international students to bring dependants to the UK
Prepared by Impact Stories
24th May 2023
1

2. The Home Secretary’s Statement on Student Dependants – 23rd May, 2023
“Following close working with the Department for Education and HM Treasury, I am pleased to announce a package of measures to help deliver our
goal of falling net migration, while supporting the Government’s priority of growing the economy. This package includes:
1. Removing the right for international students to bring dependants unless they are on postgraduate courses currently designated as
research programmes.
2. Removing the ability for international students to switch out of the student route into work routes before their studies have been
completed.
3. Reviewing the maintenance requirements for students and dependants.
4. Steps to clamp down on unscrupulous education agents who may be supporting inappropriate applications to sell immigration not
education.
5. Better communicating immigration rules to the higher education sector and to international students.
6. Improved and more targeted enforcement activity.
We are committed to attracting the brightest and the best to the UK. Therefore, our intention is to work with universities over the course of the next
year to design an alternative approach that ensures that the best and the brightest students can bring dependants to our world leading universities,
while continuing to reduce net migration. We will bring in this system as soon as possible, after thorough consultation with the sector and key
stakeholders.”
2

3. What is the background?
● The government is under pressure over strongly rising immigration to the UK
 Latest data is expected to show net migration in the year to December 2022 rising very rapidly to in excess of 700K
 The data challenges the Brexit rhetoric of ‘taking back control’ […..of immigration]
● Alongside a surge in the number of international students granted sponsored study visas has been a surge in the
number of student dependants granted visas
268674
209827
375999
485758
16047 19139
54486
135788
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2019 2020 2021 2022
Main Applicants
Dependants
Sponsored Study Visas Issued: Main applicants and Dependants (2019-2022 calendar year)
Source: Home Office Entry Clearance Visa Outcomes (December 2022); Analysis by Impact Stories
3

4. The data show that in 2022 there was one dependant visa issued for every 3.5 sponsored student visas
● The overall dependant ratio for sponsored
study visas issued in 2022 was 0.28
 One dependant for every 3.5 sponsored
students
● This compares to a dependant ratio of 0.06 in
2019
 One dependant for every 17 sponsored
students
● Countries with above average dependant
ratios are often countries facing significant
economic, social or conflict challenges
● Within the ISI Motivational Segmentation
these countries have a high share of
students who are ‘Life-Changers’ or
’Careerists’
 The opportunity for emigration and access to
employment is clearly a motivation for many
international students from these countries
Source: Home Office Entry Clearance Visa Outcomes (December 2022); Analysis by Impact Stories
Countries with above average study visa Dependant Ratio (calendar year 2022)
Sponsored Study Visas
Issued Calendar Year 2022
Main Applicant Dependant Dependant Ratio
All Sponsored study 485758 135788 0.28
Libya 256 529 2.07
Nigeria 59053 60923 1.03
Tuvalu 1 1 1.00
Sri Lanka 5760 5294 0.92
Iraq 489 408 0.83
Syria 299 166 0.56
Guinea 13 7 0.54
Yemen 142 76 0.54
Iran 2687 1374 0.51
Ghana 4213 2019 0.48
Saudi Arabia 5161 2375 0.46
Bangladesh 15277 6505 0.43
Gambia, The 70 29 0.41
Chile 456 178 0.39
Togo 14 5 0.36
Liberia 17 6 0.35
Afghanistan 607 214 0.35
Turkmenistan 37 13 0.35
Lesotho 9 3 0.33
Bhutan 33 10 0.30
Gabon 10 3 0.30
Pakistan 28188 8231 0.29
Eritrea 14 4 0.29
India 139539 38990 0.28
Nepal 4699 1300 0.28
Other 218714 7125 0.03
4

5. In reality, the problem the government sees is confined to a small number of source countries
● The problem the government is trying to address is
really defined by a small number of source
countries with both
 High numbers of students and,
 A high dependant ratio
● The data shows that these are essentially the
countries of South Asia along with Nigeria, Ghana
Saudi Arabia and Iran
● And in absolute terms the problem as seen by the
government is really being driven by two countries
– Nigeria and India – which collectively account for
almost three quarters of all dependant visas
 Every sponsored student visa issued to a Nigerian is
associated with at least one dependant visa
● India and Nigeria are the two principal countries
which have driven overall growth in student
numbers since the introduction of the Graduate
Visa
 In contrast, China, previously the dominant source
country, has an almost zero dependant ratio
Source: Home Office Entry Clearance Visa Outcomes (December 2022); Analysis by Impact Stories
Countries with in excess of 2,000 sponsored study visas granted (calendar year 2022)
Sponsored Study Visas
Issued Calendar Year 2022
Main Applicant Dependant Dependant Ratio
Share of all
Dependants
All Sponsored study 485758 135788 0.28 100%
India 139539 38990 0.28 29%
China 102842 583 0.01 0%
Nigeria 59053 60923 1.03 45%
Pakistan 28188 8231 0.29 6%
Bangladesh 15277 6505 0.43 5%
United States 14566 948 0.07 1%
Hong Kong 7941 18 0.00 0%
Malaysia 6856 370 0.05 0%
Sri Lanka 5760 5294 0.92 4%
Saudi Arabia 5161 2375 0.46 2%
Nepal 4699 1300 0.28 1%
Thailand 4432 60 0.01 0%
Ghana 4213 2019 0.48 1%
Kuwait 4209 199 0.05 0%
Germany 4120 37 0.01 0%
France 4086 24 0.01 0%
Canada 4020 105 0.03 0%
Korea (South) 3608 385 0.11 0%
Spain 3225 21 0.01 0%
Taiwan 3222 51 0.02 0%
Turkey 3205 460 0.14 0%
Indonesia 2893 607 0.21 0%
Japan 2732 194 0.07 0%
Iran 2687 1374 0.51 1%
Italy 2489 40 0.02 0%
Vietnam 2313 67 0.03 0%
Singapore 2181 65 0.03 0%
Egypt 2100 237 0.11 0%
Other 40141 4306 0.11 3%
5

6. What are the implications for international student numbers? The ISI Perspective
● The impact on overall student numbers coming to the UK is likely to be relatively small
 The big driver of growth in numbers has been the Graduate Visa
 The students for whom dependants are genuinely a ‘deal-breaker’ are likely to be older and studying for a PhD (which are
unaffected)
● If students are primarily driven by the possibility of immigration, they are likely to come to the UK anyway
 They may well think that they can still pursue work opportunities after graduation and try to bring family members later
 Of competitor countries, Canada is the most likely alternative consideration for these students
● The delay in introduction of the new restrictions to January 2024 may ‘pull forward’ some demand from 2024 into
Q3/Q4 2023
 This may artificially reduce visa applications in 2024 by a small amount
● From 2025 onwards we see only a small impact on overall numbers relative to the ‘as is’ scenario
● The impact may be slightly greater for individual HEIs and courses with a very high share of students from Nigeria or
India in particular
● Some commentators believe there will be an impact on the gender balance of students from predominantly Muslim
countries
 But we have not yet seen any evidence to support this belief
6

7. International Student Insight – the service: Improving UK HEI Competitiveness
7

8. studentinsight@impactstories.co.uk
We hope this Insight Brief was helpful
For more information, please get in
touch!
8