Seminar @ University of Plymouth:
Engineerings Big-Bang was the Industrial Revolution; when the accumulated scientific knowledge first met commercial opportunity. In just 250 yrs the power of repeatedly standing on the shoulders of giants has allowed engineers to deliver ever more incredible machines to enhance our innate capabilities. The most complex and sophisticated machines ever ... And tomorrows will be ever more so. The consumers will love them, but creating them with a finite resource and budget will continue to be an even greater challenge ...
1. 1
The Most Complex Machines Ever
Centre&for&Robo+cs&and&Neural&Systems&Seminar&
23jan15:&Uo.Plymouth,&Uk.&
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Pdf&and&SlideCast&@&hDp://ianp24.blogspot.com&
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Opinions&expressed&are&my&own&...&
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Prof. Ian Phillips
Principal Staff Engineer
ARM Ltd
ian.phillips@arm.com
Visiting Prof. at ...
Contribution to
Industry Award 2008
1v0
2. 2
The Most Complex ‘Machines’ Ever Made by Mankind
From sensors to servers … and most have ARM processors and technology at their heart
! Tomorrow&they&will&be&ever&more&complex&...&
...&And&their&+mescales,&resources&and&budgets&ever&more&challenging&
&
..."Must"understand"Electronic"System"Dev’t"Today;"to"op:mise"it"Tomorrow!"
3. 3
... Familiar, yet Poorly Understood terms!
Today
Samsung Galaxy S5
2014 (1yr lifetime)
40yr ago
BTYeoman
c1964-84 (20yr lifetime)
How many IC Designers?
How many SW Designers?
Research, Development and Product
! Products&have&changed&hugely&in&my&life&...&&
! Yes:%Technology,%Methods%and%Tools%
! Also:%Business%Models%and%Globalisa9on%
%...%Con9nuous,%impercep9ble%change,%over%40+%yrs%
! They&were&all&Researched&and&Developed1
%..."Is"‘Old@Knowhow’"relevant"to"today's"Products?1
4. 4
Age of the ...
Universe – 13.6Byr
Earth – 4.5Byr
Life – 3.5Byr
Lets look real-far back ...
32,000 yrs got us to this!
! CroCMagnon%Man%(Us!)&–&35,000&yr&ago&&
! ‘Developed’%from%HomoCSapien%(Wise%Human)%>100,000%yr%
! Mission:%Survive"Nature"(1,000%gen’n)%
! The%Philosophers%–&2,500Q1,000&yr&ago%
! Pythagoras,%Socrates,%Plato,%Aristotle,%Archimedes,%...%
! Mission:%Understanding"Nature"
! The%Scien9sts%–&1,000Q500&yrs&ago%
! Galileo,%Descartes,%(1000%ad)%
! Electricity%C%William%Gilbert%(1600ad)%
! Mission:%Manipula:on"of"Nature"
! The%Engineers%–&260&yrs&ago%
! Industrial"Revolu:on"(1750:%8%gen’n)%
! Mission:%Exploita:on"of"Nature"
! Year%0:%ScienceCMeetsCExploita9on%
! Technology%Based%Business%Emerges%%
"..."Our"BIG@BANG"was"only"250"years"ago!"
5. 5
When we think of Computing we tend to think of ...
! HPCs&and&Mainframes1…1
& &&&& & & & &&...&maybe&Worksta<ons1(High1Performance1Desk?Top)1
&
15. 15
! Need:1A&Mechanism&for&enhancing&human&memory&(Camera)1
! Technology:1...&
! Digital%Logic%(CPU+I.O.)%
! Soeware%
! Memory%(NV%and%RAM)%
! Excellent%Lenses%and%Displays%
! Analogue%Electronics%(Network%&%GPS)%
! Sensors%and%Transducers%(CCD%&%MEM)%
! Precision%Mechanics%
! MicroCMotors%
! Baheries%and%Energy%Storage%
! LEDs%and%Discharge%Tubes%
! Precision%forming%of%Plas9cs%and%Metal%
! Electronic%Packaging%
! Robo9c%Assembly%...%Technology%External%to%the%Product!%
...""All"of"these"Technologies"are"available"to""
21c"Businesses"today"..."
2014 - Canon EOS 5D (Today)
Incorporating DIGIC5+ (ARM)
System-Level
Computation
Q: So why couldn’t ARM make a
camera to compete with Canon?
A: Because Canon has Capabilities
in place that we don’t have!
ARM-based
Computer
16. 16
So Capabilities Limit a Business's Product Possibilities...
... But they are also an Entry Barrier to your Competitors
CAPABILITIES
Product
Development
PRODUCT
! Businesses&need&to&Know&they&can&make&a&Product&before&they&Start&
! Capabili:es%help%to%Manage%the%Risk%(There’s%frequently%no%second%chance!)%
! Making&a&Product&is&s+ll&Work;&but&based&on&Capabili+es&it&is&Known?Work!&
! Unknown’%leads%to%Protracted%Timescales,%Blown%Budgets,%Lost%Opportuni9es%and%Panic!%
! Business&need&and&Appropriate&set&of&Capabili+es,&before&they&
commences&a&Product&Development&
%...%Different%Products%need%different%CapabilityCSets!%
% %…%Even%similar%products;%and%those%within%a%single%business!%
18. 18
! A&Capability&is&an&Installed&&‘Unit’&of&&Technology,&such&that&it&may&&
be&relied&upon&for&MissionQCri+cal&Business&purposes.&
! They%are%Installed:%Reliable,%Trusted,%Predictable,%Usable.%
! They%Cross%Technology%Boundaries%(HW,%SW,%Op9cs,%Mul9CChip,%etc)%
! They%are%NOT%Product%Specific%...%
! Eg:&&Need&Fortran&capability&by&2016.&&Need&to&handle&Logic&Reliability&by10nm&node.&&Need&a&Bus&
architecture&for&use&in&and&between&3D/Chiplet&by&2020.&&Need&10x&systemQpower&efficiency&
improvement&&by&2020.&&Need&a&JIT&Java&Compiler&by&2016.&
! They%can%be%Technology%Answers%...%
! Eg:&&How&will&our&Partners&handle&the&end&of&Moors&Law?&How&can&we&increase&our&Partners&
Produc+vity&in&our&Product&Offering?&Will&Transistor&Reliability&become&a&serious&issue&at&14nm?&
%...%Capabili9es%are%the%Founda9ons%for%Product%Development%
% %...%they%are%established%by%Research%(literally:%“Finding%out”)%
The Capability Model1&
Capabilities are the Links between Research and Development
1:%As%a%technical%concept,%not%directly%described%by%literature.%
19. 19
! Short&Term:&From&the&Known?Set1...%
! Refine"what"we"know"(Including%Individual%knowledge,%Team%knowledge,%and%Tools).%
! Acquire"what"others"know"(Recruit,%Develop,%Contract,%Licence,%Acquire,%Espionage,%etc)%
%...%Specific,%internal,%secrecy,%lowCnumber,%highCcost,%confidence%
%
! Longer&Term:&From&the&Unknown?Set&...%
! Targeted"Research"C%Specific,%pointCfocus,%commercial%advantage%(CrownCjewels)%
! Partnered"Research"C%Specific,%focused,%indirect%commercial%advantage%(ARM%Partners)%
! University/Ins:tute"Research"C%Generic,%wide%spectrum,%nonCdifferen9a9ng%knowledge%
! ARM&Funded&Research&Projects&
! Na+onal&Support&Programs1&(TSB,&H2020,&Research&Councils,&DARPA,&etc)%
% %...%Generic,%broadCspectrum,%openness,%highCnumber,%lowCcost,%partnering,%sharing,%uncertainty%
&
%...%Guided%by%Road%Map%from%longer%term%Business%Objec9ves&
Research Establishes Capabilities ...
... for Development Engineers to use for Product Development
20. 20
Development Delivers a Technical Product ...
... (Tangible or Intangible) to fulfil a Customer Need and a Business Objective
! Design&is&a&crea+ve&role&within&Development&
! Engineers&Deliver1an&effec+ve&TechnicalQProduct&solu+on&...&
! Mee:ng"Func:onal%and%Non@Func:onal%criteria%...%
! Eg:&Quality,&TTM,&Budget,&Reproducibility,&Testability,&Cost,&Power.&&
! Maximising"Product"Differen:a:on;%Minimising%Product%Risk,%Cost%and%Uncertainty%
! Using%Available"Capability"(Technology,%Methodology,%Tools%and%KnowCHow)%
! Engineers&Innovate&by&pushing&the&bounds&of&Available&Capabili+es&...&
! Using%the%opportuni9es%presented%by%the%Par9cular%Product%Brief%
! Trading%between%Available%Capabili9es%(Eg:%HW,%SW,%Analogue)%
! U9lising%his/her%wider%sphere%of%knowledge,%knowChow%and%experience%
%...%%Innova9on%is%(and%will%remain)%a%fundamental%Engineering%role%
%...%Directed%by%Specific%Product%Plans%
21. 21
! A&Customer&buys&a&Product&it&for&its&Valued&U+lity&...&
& & &...&A&Supplier&sells&a&Product&for&its&An+cipated&U+lity&
! They"are"different"so%its%Important%to%Match%Expecta9ons!%
! Product%must%exceed%Consumers%needs%(By%how%much?)%
! Func9onality%is%Assumed%(It%has%no%Extra%Value!)%
! Customers%are%not%always%the%best%source%of%New%Product%ideas%
! End?Product1is&very&special&...&It&funds&its&en+re&valueQchain&
! The%EndCCustomer%is%YOU!%
! Research&Outcomes&can&be&Products!&&
! Their%Product%is%a%Science%or%Technology%(Occasionally%a%Capability)%
! But"never"an"End@Product%
%...%A%Business%Model%makes%the%Rela9onship%Sustainable!%
The Product ...
...The basis of a Mutually Beneficial, Business Relationship
22. 22
! Businesses&sell&things&that&Customers&want&to&buy&
! Suppor9ng%the%EndCCustomers%needs%%...%Who%maybe%several%‘layers’%above%their%business.%
! They&focus&on&their&Core&Competencies&in&a&Globally&Compe++ve&Market&
! They&avoid&Commodi+sa+on&by&Product&Differen+a+on&…&
! Cost%and%Quality%(by%improving%Process)%..and..%
! Improved%BusinessCModels%(which%take%the%Money)%%..and..%
! New/Improved%Technology%when%it%offers%benefit%(may%be%Expensive%or%Risky)%
! Product1Development1is1a1Cost1(Risk)1to1be1Minimised1
! Technology%(HW,%SW,%Mechanics,%Op9cs,%Graphene,%etc)%just%enables%Op9ons!%
! NewCTechnology%may%cost%more%(including%risk)%than%it%delivers%in%Product%Value!%
! OverCDesign%costs%%...%Cannot%afford%the%Precau9onary%Principle!%
! Reuse%saves%…%Cannot%afford%to%reCinvent%the%wheel%
%...%Because%successful%EndCProducts%fund%their%en9re%(RD&I)%ValueCChains%
%...%Their%Technologies%will%flowCdown%into%(all)%lower%volume%markets!&
Computing Technologies in Business Context
Businesses have to be Competitive, Money Making Machines today ...
23. 23
%...%Older%Compute%Markets%remain;%but%are%noClonger%the%Technology%Drivers!%
Business Opportunities Drive Technology Developments
...And 21c Products are ‘Smart’ and ‘Connected’
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Main Frame
Mini Computer
Personal Computer
Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
MillionsofUnits
Professional!"Consumer
1st Era
Select work-tasks
2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks
3rd Era
Computing as part
of our lives
24. 24
ARM: Enabling Innovation Across the Entire Industry
Leading in wearables
and the IoT
>70% of smart TVs and >95%
of portable game consoles Enabling the transformation of
the network infrastructure and
data center
First ARM-based
servers now shipping
Driving smart energy,
automotive, home networking
>95% of
smartphones
and tablets
>80% of digital
cameras
27. 27
1965: Gordon Moore
“Moore's1Law”1was1coined1by1Carver1Mead1in11970,1from1Gordon1Moore's1ar<cle1in11
Electronics"Magazine1191April119651"Cramming1more1components1onto1integrated1circuits“.1
“The complexity for minimum component costs has
increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ...
Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to
continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of
increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to
believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated
circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a
large circuit can be built on a single wafer”
In 1965 he was designing ICs with ~50 transistors!
But his Law held for ~50 years ... Taking us to 50B transistor ICs today!
Gordon Moore, Founder of Intel
34. 34
Designer Productivity has become the Methodology Driver
! The&Product&Possibili+es&offered&by&u+lising&the&Billions&of&Affordable&and&Aesthe+cally&
EncapsulateQable&Transistors&is&Commercially&Beguiling!&
! But&the&only&way&to&u+lise&these&possibili+es&in&a&reasonable&+me,&with&a&reasonable&
team&and&at&a&reasonable&cost;&is&huge&amounts&of&Reuse&of&Design&and&Technology&...&
! Hardware,%SoYware%and%other%Technologies;%Methods%and%Tools"
! In@Company:"Sourced%and%Evolved%from%Predecessor%Products"
! Ex@Company:%Sourced%from%businesses%with%lesserCknown(?)%Histories,%but%Specialist%Knowledge%
! Reuse"Improves"Quality;%as%objects%are%designed%more%carefully,%and%bugCfixes%are%incremental%
! But&beware;&systems&always&have&residual&errors!&&
...%CleanCSheet%approaches%will%be%orders%of%magnitude%higher%cost%
…%So%>99%%Reuse%will%be%the%nature%of%future%Product%Design%and%Development!%
%
35. 35
Software
development
tools
Physical IP – Design of
the building blocks of the
chip
Processor and
Graphics IP – Design
of the brain of the
chip
Power Mgmt
Bluetooth
Cellular Modem
WiFi
SIM
GPS Flash Controller
Touchscreen
& Sensor Hub
Sensor Hub
Camera
Apps Processor
ARM Technology
! Advanced consumer products are incorporating more and more ARM technology –
from processor and multimedia IP to software
Early software
development on
Virtual Platforms
36. 36
ARM Partnership: Building for the Long Term
ARM Chips shipped in 2013
by ARM Partners
ARM Chips Shipped to Date by
ARM Partners
37. 37
! UK&Established&and&Headquartered&&
! Global&leader&in&the&development&of&
semiconductor&IP&
! R&D%outsourcing%for%semiconductor%companies%
! Innova+ve&business&model&yields&high&margins&
! Upfront%license%fee%–%flexible%licensing%models%
! Ongoing%royal9es%–%typically%based%on%a%%
percentage%of%chip%price%
! Technology%reused%across%mul9ple%applica9ons%
...%ARM"Technology"Creates%and%Transforms%
markets%
ARM and our Business Model
2-3
20+ years
Multiple applications
development and sales
2-3 years
Partner chip
development
2-3 years
ARM research and
development
Cost incurred
License revenue $
Royalty revenue $
Approximately 850 licenses
Grows by 60-90 every year
More than 350 potential
royalty payers
>10bn ARM-based chips in 2013
>25% CAGR over last 5 years
~£715m Revenue ~28% of Revenue on R&D
~2600 employees ww ~1000 in the UK
… Figures fromY2013 Report
38. 38
Public Misunderstanding of R&D
! The&Public&understanding&of&R&D&covers&en+re&the&span&of&Basic&Physics&to&Produc+on.&&
! Seen&as&‘monoQtask’&of&crea+on&…&which&was&‘solved’&onceQandQforQall&years&ago!&
%%%%…%This%Mahers%because%the%Public%ul9mately%assigns%values%to%your%role%(£)%
Product
(What I buy)
R&D
(Where it comes from)
Innovative Product
(What I buy for <$)
R&D&I
(Where it comes from)
42. 42
The ARMVision
A world where all electronic products and services are based upon energy efficient
technology from ARM, making life better for everyone