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Sensing Data and Flood Hazard
Modeling in Index-based Flood
Insurance (IBFI) for the Rural Farmers in
South Asia
Giriraj A...
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
• Human cost of natural disasters and its impact
• Flood situation in Bihar
• Linking Disaster Manage...
HUMAN COST OF NATURAL DISASTERS AND ITS IMPACTS
Number of disasters and affected
people reported per country (1994-
2013)
...
BIG FACTS ON FLOODING
• Bihar is India’s most flood-prone state.
• 73% of the total geographical area is annually flooded....
HISTORICAL FLOOD TRENDS IN GANGES BASIN
Flood Frequency Flood Duration
Flood Seasonality Flood Extent
RECENT FLOOD DISASTERS IN BIHAR
Photo credit: Amit Kumar
OBSERVING FLOOD DISASTERS FROM SPACE
1988 TO 2014 HISTORICAL IMAGES
THE ROLE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Short-term
emergency assistance
Emergency
Response
Recovery Reconstruction &
Rehabilitatio...
PROMOTING PREPAREDNESS AND INCREASING RESILIENCE
The Tradeoff
Significant amount of money locked in disaster relief funds
...
www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world
REDUCING THE FLOOD RISK
Source: Jha et al, (2011) adapted from Ranger
and Garbe...
www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world
2013 2013-142011-12
SHORT HISTORY OF IBFI
2015-18
CCAFS CRP
Refresh
Phase
Flood...
www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world
PROJECT SUMMARY
CCAFS Project ID: P41-F2-SA-IWMI
Period: 2015 to 2018
Budget: U...
Partners
CGIAR Partners + Donors
Knowledge Partner
Govt. + Technical Partner + Insurer
Communication, Media Partner
INDIA ...
www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1. Setting up pilot-scale trials to demonstrate
that positi...
Flood index design
Flood hazard module
Flood loss module
Crop
Yield
loss
Economic loss
Water
level
Flood Extent
Flood Dura...
CONCEPT: INDEX BASED FLOOD INSURANCE
Peoples Participation
Flood map
Scaled for
Depth
Scaled for
Duration
Final Index
Map
...
1. Proof-of-concept on IBFI coupled with the flood hazard model and remote sensing
(RS) data in selected districts of Sout...
Inception Workshop on “Enhancing the benefits of Remote Sensing Data and Flood
Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insura...
www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world
COMPONENTS METHODS
IBFI system planning,
design, implementation
and evaluation
...
Site Prioritization Analysis: Hydrological Data
Flood frequency
• Analyzed long-term historical rainfall
data from IMD in ...
Exposure of Floods
Potential Insurance Demand
Potential Insurance Demand
Identification of Pilot Location
PILOT STUDY AREA
MUZAFFARPUR DISTRICT
(BIHAR, INDIA)
SIRAJGANJ DISTRICT
(BANGLADESH)
1. To provide operational rainfall-runoff model from MISDc and hydraulic model using MIKE 11 in the process of flood
forec...
Input observations
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling (MISDc)
Rainfall and temperature time series, in near real-rime, by in situ
s...
Operational In-situ Water level for Pilot Districts
• Data Provided by Central Water
Commission – Daily water level,
rainf...
Flood mapping
Every day, the flood forecasting system will provide
flood inundation maps for the region of interest from
w...
Index Based Flood Insurance
Design Index Based Flood Insurance
Framework of Designing IBFI
Implementation Process
• Opportunity AssessmentActivity 1
• Contract DesignActivity 2
• Contract PricingActivity 3
• Devel...
IBFI
Impact Pathway
Innovation – IBFI product
Validation-Dissemination
Adoption-Adaptation
IMPACT
Farmers and
their famili...
IBFI Pilot Implementation
Increasing Agriculture
Resilience
Reducing Risk
to Livelihoods
A
C
T
O
R
S
Business models &
Sca...
Thank You !!
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Enhancing the benefits of Remote Sensing Data and Flood Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI) for the rural farmers in South Asia

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Presented by IWMI's Amarnath Giriraj at a seminar on “Climate Services” held at IWMI Headquaters in Colombo, Sri lanka, on September 3, 2015.

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Enhancing the benefits of Remote Sensing Data and Flood Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI) for the rural farmers in South Asia

  1. 1. Sensing Data and Flood Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI) for the Rural Farmers in South Asia Giriraj Amarnath, Ph.D. Senior Researcher and Project Lead - IBFI International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo
  2. 2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Human cost of natural disasters and its impact • Flood situation in Bihar • Linking Disaster Management and Index Insurance • IBFI Concept, Implementation Strategy • Project Progress and Updates from team members • Pilot area selection • Flood hazard modeling • Implementation process • Business model and institutional framework • Communication and IP • Partnership for Implementation
  3. 3. HUMAN COST OF NATURAL DISASTERS AND ITS IMPACTS Number of disasters and affected people reported per country (1994- 2013) IND 819m PK 50m BGL 127m Global Assessment by natural disasters
  4. 4. BIG FACTS ON FLOODING • Bihar is India’s most flood-prone state. • 73% of the total geographical area is annually flooded. • 76% of the population in North Bihar is at risk of flooding. • Major flood events have occurred in 1987, 1995, 1998, 2002, 2004 and 2007. • Approx. 15million people are affected by flooding • Approx. 300,000 metric tons of rice production damaged by floods • For example Muzaffarpur District, alone, incurred losses of over USD 3 million per year from 2001 to 2012 due to floods. • Recent report by UNISDR about 800 million people are currently living in flood-prone areas, and 70 million are experiencing floods each year. • Global flood losses in 2011 >$100 billion with major losses from Thailand, Australia and Hurricane Irene • Recent Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK estimates to over $450 billion by 2030 • In 2007, floods killed 3,200 people in India and Bangladesh alone. In 2010, flooding killed 2,200 people in Pakistan and another 1,900 in China, while in 2013, an exceptionally high number of 6,500 people died due to floods in India. Bihar Global to Regional
  5. 5. HISTORICAL FLOOD TRENDS IN GANGES BASIN Flood Frequency Flood Duration Flood Seasonality Flood Extent
  6. 6. RECENT FLOOD DISASTERS IN BIHAR Photo credit: Amit Kumar
  7. 7. OBSERVING FLOOD DISASTERS FROM SPACE 1988 TO 2014 HISTORICAL IMAGES
  8. 8. THE ROLE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT Short-term emergency assistance Emergency Response Recovery Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Long-term infrastructure & sustainable development assistance Liquidity Gap X Catastrophe Time http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/Barbados/Pres/4-CCRIF.pdf
  9. 9. PROMOTING PREPAREDNESS AND INCREASING RESILIENCE The Tradeoff Significant amount of money locked in disaster relief funds The Tradeoff Insurance can help unlock the money that is kept for relief and use it for climate change adaptation and mitigation RoleofInsurance
  10. 10. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world REDUCING THE FLOOD RISK Source: Jha et al, (2011) adapted from Ranger and Garbett-Shiels (2011) Cost-Benefit-Ratio Robustness to Uncertainties Structural Non-Structural PORTFOLIO OF FLOOD MANAGEMENT OPTIONS Investment Effectiveness Acceptable risk level IBFI Levee Storages Diversions Earlywarning Reseroir Opn. MULTIPLE BARRIER PROTECTION
  11. 11. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world 2013 2013-142011-12 SHORT HISTORY OF IBFI 2015-18 CCAFS CRP Refresh Phase Flood Risk SA ACTIVITY IBFI Concept Initiated and Approved Multi- hazard Mapping SA
  12. 12. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world PROJECT SUMMARY CCAFS Project ID: P41-F2-SA-IWMI Period: 2015 to 2018 Budget: USD 1.0 Million (approx.) Target Countries: India & Bangladesh Research Partners: CGIAR: IWMI (HQ, ND), IFPRI-New Delhi International: UoB, MCII, GlobalAgRisk, UNOOSA ++ India: ICAR-IIWM, NIH, FMISC, CWC + + Bangladesh: IWM, MoDM, BWDB, UoD + + Implementing/Co-sponsoring Partners: AIC, eeMausam, BajajAllianz, SwissRe, DOA-BH, NABARD ++ Knowledge Sharing Partners: FMISC, BSDMA, CWC, DoA-Bihar ++
  13. 13. Partners CGIAR Partners + Donors Knowledge Partner Govt. + Technical Partner + Insurer Communication, Media Partner INDIA BANGLADESH
  14. 14. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. Setting up pilot-scale trials to demonstrate that positive verifiable impacts emerge from IBFI in terms of agriculture resilience and improving productivity, and household incomes, locally and at the broader scale 2. Developing tools and strategies that support IBFI development and upscaling, integrated with existing and future flood control measures.
  15. 15. Flood index design Flood hazard module Flood loss module Crop Yield loss Economic loss Water level Flood Extent Flood Duration Crop Damage Rainfall Insurance payout Structure/Scheme Government Insurance agencies Development banks Farmers (from 50,000 to 1 million farmers would be benefitted by the scheme) Remote Sensing Data for Inundated Crop Area IBFI CONCEPT
  16. 16. CONCEPT: INDEX BASED FLOOD INSURANCE Peoples Participation Flood map Scaled for Depth Scaled for Duration Final Index Map Flood Indexing Concept Flood Hazard Model Flood Loss Model Flood Insurance Policy Partner: IWM
  17. 17. 1. Proof-of-concept on IBFI coupled with the flood hazard model and remote sensing (RS) data in selected districts of South Asian countries. 2. Digital flood mapping tool to monitor and quantify the impact of floods on crops, and its application in insurance schemes. 3. Design and pilot test a set of farmer-friendly flood insurance contracts for at least three districts with a considerable number of marginalized female farmers/poor people to ensure contracts are not gender biased. 4. Obtaining feedback and develop community of practice from officials/staff of insurance regulatory authorities in countries, operating insurance companies, meteorological agencies, agricultural research institutions, micro-finance institutions or NGOs, and relevant government agencies (e.g., ministries involved with disaster management, water resources, and agriculture). 5. Policy and institutional guidelines translated into business models for the implementation of flood insurance product. 6. Comparative analysis of the cost-effectiveness of RS-based index insurance compared to traditional methods, and estimating the potential in other parts of the target countries. 7. Research papers and reports, planning guidelines, policy/investment briefs and other communications material including websites, brochures and videos. MAJOR DELIVERABLES
  18. 18. Inception Workshop on “Enhancing the benefits of Remote Sensing Data and Flood Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI)” 1 – 2 August 2015, Hotel Gargee Grand Patna, Bihar (India)
  19. 19. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world COMPONENTS METHODS IBFI system planning, design, implementation and evaluation site characterization, design, pilot-scale implementation, baseline data, performance monitoring and testing, hydrologic/hydraulic modeling, flood parameters, and scenario analysis/ forecasting, training & capacity building Institutional, economic and gender analysis baseline socio-economic data, gender/social disaggregated analysis, social/institutional/ policy arrangements, cost-benefit analysis Technical guidelines and business case development synthesis; cross-country comparisons, IBFI vs alternative mitigation approaches Strategy development and dissemination knowledge exchange meetings/dialogues/ regional workshops for key stakeholders and potential investors, investment support tools; risk management framework
  20. 20. Site Prioritization Analysis: Hydrological Data Flood frequency • Analyzed long-term historical rainfall data from IMD in different districts of Bihar • Prepared inundation map from MODIS and calculated flood extent, duration, frequency and compared with data from FMIS, BDMA and other reports • River flow information from altimeter and in-situ measurements Rainfall
  21. 21. Exposure of Floods
  22. 22. Potential Insurance Demand
  23. 23. Potential Insurance Demand
  24. 24. Identification of Pilot Location
  25. 25. PILOT STUDY AREA MUZAFFARPUR DISTRICT (BIHAR, INDIA) SIRAJGANJ DISTRICT (BANGLADESH)
  26. 26. 1. To provide operational rainfall-runoff model from MISDc and hydraulic model using MIKE 11 in the process of flood forecasting; 2. To integrate past, current and future weather information to provide probability of flood levels in early warning process and its application in flood insurance; 3. To provide geospatial products including flood extent, flood depth and flood duration and possible provide composite flood index map; 4. To provide tools and models with detail technical report and possibly a research paper in 2016. DELIVERABLES Operational flood forecasting system
  27. 27. Input observations Rainfall-Runoff Modelling (MISDc) Rainfall and temperature time series, in near real-rime, by in situ stations, remote sensing, numerical weather prediction modelling (for future prediction, 2-5 days ahead) Soil (geological) and land use maps Hydrodynamic modelling (MIKE 11) Cross section geometry Infrastructure (bridge, reservoir, storaging structure) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Field information (pictures) Calibration and testing of modelling system Discharge/flow data (by in situ stations) Flood maps (by field surveys or remote sensing) The system needs hydrometeorological data (rainfall and air temperature) as input. The soil/land use/topographic information are used for the determination of hydrologic/hydraulic model parameter values. Finally, discharge data and flood maps are required for model testing and validation.
  28. 28. Operational In-situ Water level for Pilot Districts • Data Provided by Central Water Commission – Daily water level, rainfall • 35 stations are operational for 2015 flood seasons 40 45 50 55 60 65 Elevation(m)msl Daily Water Level Danger Level Buxar Station 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Elevation(m)MSL Daily Water Level Danger Level Hayaghat Station
  29. 29. Flood mapping Every day, the flood forecasting system will provide flood inundation maps for the region of interest from which the water depth, flow velocity, and flood duration for each location (e.g., village) will be automatically extracted.
  30. 30. Index Based Flood Insurance
  31. 31. Design Index Based Flood Insurance
  32. 32. Framework of Designing IBFI
  33. 33. Implementation Process • Opportunity AssessmentActivity 1 • Contract DesignActivity 2 • Contract PricingActivity 3 • Development of Contract Administration Tool KitActivity 4 • Client EducationActivity 5 • Farmer EnrolmentActivity 6 • Risk TransferActivity 7 • Contract MonitoringActivity 8 • Claim ProcessingActivity 9
  34. 34. IBFI Impact Pathway Innovation – IBFI product Validation-Dissemination Adoption-Adaptation IMPACT Farmers and their families Market, Private Insurance firms Government (Disaster mgmt, Agri, water ) Indicators Potential effectiveness of flood thresholds and loss estimation Adoption Rate CommunicationandUptakeActivities Engage Educate Exemplify Actual effectiveness of flood thresholds and loss estimation And Change in knowledge, attitude, skills and practice in users Baseline analysis of the context and issues Pilot implementation And Strength of Intermediaries
  35. 35. IBFI Pilot Implementation Increasing Agriculture Resilience Reducing Risk to Livelihoods A C T O R S Business models & Scaling Up Gender Dimension Flood Index Design Scale up to other flood – prone states and adopted by more players Feed into National and State Policy dialogues IBFI – The Big Picture Policy Analysis & Investment options Contextual Factors - Socio-economic, political, technological - Existing policies, practices, beliefs - Influencing networks, policy & practice, power relations - Capacity of target groups to respond and use research
  36. 36. Thank You !!

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