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International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE)
Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022, pp. 4276~4287
ISSN: 2088-8708, DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v12i4.pp4276-4287 ๏ฒ 4276
Journal homepage: http://ijece.iaescore.com
The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on
Bangladesh perspective using machine learning: a comparative
study
Maqsudur Rahman1
, Md. Tofael Ahmed1
, Shafayet Nur2
, Abu Zafor Muhammad Touhidul Islam3
1
Department of Information and Communication Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Comilla University, Comilla, Bangladesh
2
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Port City International University, Chattogram,
Bangladesh
3
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Rajshahi University, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received Oct 17, 2020
Revised Mar 27, 2022
Accepted Apr 11, 2022
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a huge pandemic situation
in many countries of the world including Bangladesh. If the increase rate of
this threat can be forecasted, immediate measures can be taken. This study is
an effort to forecast the threat of present pandemic situation using machine
learning (ML) forecasting models. Forecasting was done in three categories
in the next 30 days range. In our study, multiple linear regression performed
best among the other algorithms in all categories with R2 score of 99% for
first two categories and 94% for the third category. Ridge regression
performed great for the first two categories with R2 scores of 99% each but
performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 43%. Lasso
regression performed reasonably well with R2 scores of 97%, 99% and 75%
for the three categories. We also used Facebook Prophet to predict 30 days
beyond our train data which gave us healthy R2 scores of 92% and 83% for
the first two categories but performed poorly for the third category with R2
score of 34%. Also, all the modelsโ€™ performances were evaluated with a 40-
day prediction interval in which multiple linear regression outperformed
other algorithms.
Keywords:
Coronavirus disease 2019
Facebook Prophet
Lasso regression
Multiple linear regression
Ridge regression
This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license.
Corresponding Author:
Maqsudur Rahman
Department of Information and Communication Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Comilla University
Comilla, Bangladesh
Email: mrrajon@cou.ac.bd
1. INTRODUCTION
The coronavirus 2 is severe acute respiratory syndrome which is the main cause of coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19), an ongoing pandemic in many countries of the world [1]. Wuhan, Hubei, China is
the place where this disease was first recorded in December 2019. About 36 million new cases and more than
1 million fatalities have been reported worldwide till date [2]. Many researchers and scientists are working
hard to find a vaccine to prevent this virus. Because of this pandemic, the moral of people have crashed.
Many countries are facing economic challenges. However, Bangladesh is a country of lower middle economy
and also one of the most populated countries of the world is hit by this devastating pandemic. The world is
taking precautions to lower the threat of this pandemic. So, it has become very essential also for Bangladesh
to forecast the threat of the current situation which will help in taking precautions which can save many lives.
Machine learning (ML) based predictive models can be a promising solution in this case. ML is proven to be
a prominent field of study and also ML forecasting models can be utilized to analyze data to forecast future
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The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman)
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scenario with great accuracy and performance. Various regression and neural network models are used to
forecast threats of different diseases.
Lapuerta et al. [3] predicted the risk of coronary artery disease using neural network and
Voyant et al. [4] presented methods for solar radiation forecasting using machine learning. Moreover,
prediction equations for several cardiovascular disease endpoints were presented by Anderson et al. [5].
Furthermore, to predict breast cancer risks and to diagnosis breast cancer Bharat et al. [6] used ML models.
Farhana et al. [7] presented an intrusion detection system using deep learning approach. These models can
also be used to forecast the threats of COVID-19 as well like Yadav et al. [8] analyzed the risk factors of
COVID-19 using machine learning approach and Rustam et al. [9] forecasted worldwide COVID-19
situation through the supervised machine learning approach and got the accuracy up to mark.
Zeroual et al. [10] also used deep learning approach to forecast COVID-19 time series data. Besides many
more research is done in this field recently to find out the possible friendly pattern. The following are some
detailed discussions on some of the worldwide works on COVID-19 threat prediction.
Rustam et al. [9] forecasted COVID-19 threats in three categories, number of new positive cases,
the number of deaths and the number of recoveries of upcoming 10 days. They used supervised ML models
linear regression, lasso regression, support vector machine (SVM) and exponential smoothing to fulfill their
work. In their study, exponential smoothing performed best among other algorithms and got R2 scores of
98%, 98% and 99% for the three categories. In this research, prediction was done for upcoming 10 days only
but in our research, we predicted for upcoming 30 days.
Furthermore, Shastri et al. provided a comparative study of COVID-19 outbreak in India and
USA [11]. They proposed a deep learning based predictive system and forecasted COVID-19 cases for
30 days ahead. Prediction was done in this research only in two categories for two countries such as
confirmed cases and death cases. In our research, we contributed one more category which is the number of
daily new recovered patients.
There were also some other previous works related to COVID-19 forecasting worldwide, like
Wang et al. [12] used patient information based algorithm to forecast real-time prediction of mortality
caused by COVID-19 and in Alazab et al. [13] analyzed the incidence of COVID-19 distribution across the
world by presenting artificial-intelligence technique based on a deep convolutional neural network to
detect COVID-19 patients from the real-world datasets. In [14], Elmousalami and Hassanien utilized time
series models and numerical detailing to represent the correlation of the day level to determine COVID-19
cases. Furthermore, a flower pollination algorithm by using the salp swarm algorithm-adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system (FPASSA-ANFIS) model and flower pollination algorithm (FPA) was used by Al-Qanees
et al. [15] for predicting the confirmed cases for the upcoming 10 days in Chia and USA using World Health
Organization (WHO) official dataset. Yudistira [16], suggested more effective models to handle the
nonlinearity and the complexity of the COVID-19 time-series data. Table 1 contains a list of some previous
works on the field of predicting worldwide COVID-19 risk factors and their followed methods. The
following are some works related to COVID-19 prediction in Bangladesh.
Table 1. Previous worldwide works related to COVID-19 prediction
Article Methods Results
[7] Supervised machine learning Models Exponential Smoothing performed best with R2 scores 98% for
new cases and new deaths and 99% for recovery rate
[9] Recurrent neural network (RNN) based variants
LSTM such as Stacked LSTM,
Bi-directional LSTM and convolutional LSTM
97% (Convolutional LSTM for confirmed cases of India-USA)
[10] RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM),
Bidirectional LSTM, gated recurrent units
(GRUs) and VAE algorithms
VAE outperformed all other algorithms
[11] Prophet algorithm (PA), 0ARIMA, LSTM 99% accuracy
(Prophet algorithm for confirmed cases in Australia and Jordan)
[12] Comparison of day level forecasting models Single Exponential Smoothing Performed more accurately
[13] An improved ANFIS using an enhanced FPA by
using the SSA
R2 score of 96% (FPASSA-ANFIS method)
[14] LSTM RMSE score of 1238.66 (LSTM)
Chowdhury et al. [17] foresaw the newly infected cases in Bangladesh. They used the adaptive
neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) in three scenarios where
they took input of last four consecutive odd days for the first, even days for the second and last four
consecutive days for the third scenario in evaluated the models. In their study, LSTM showed good root
mean square error (RMSE) value and correlation coefficient in forecasting the outbreak. In this research
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prediction was done only for newly infected cases but, in our research, we performed prediction for newly
infected cases as well as daily new fatality and daily new recovery.
The study in [18] by Mahmud aims to predict and analyze the daily cases data of Bangladesh using
the Facebook Prophet model for which they collected data from 9th
march to 21st
July and prediction was
done up to 19th
September with a R2 value of 89%. In our research we got 3% more accuracy for Facebook
Prophet in daily new infected cases. Data-driven estimation methods were presented by Hridoy et al. in [19],
for predicting the possible number of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. They used data from 8th March 2020
to 13th June 2020 for LSTM models and 8th March 2020 to 18th June 2020 for logistic curve fitting model.
They used 3 LSTM models such as vanilla, stacked, bidirectional and got good R2 scores for total confirmed
cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths prediction. They predicted in three categories but their data was
limited.
In [20], Rahman et al. projected final infected number of COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh using
standardized infection ratios (SIR) mathematical model with data collected from IEDCR Bangladesh. They
obtained data from March 8 to April 20 and got reasonable results. This research lacks more data. This
research also lacks the prediction in more than 1 category. Table 2 contains the list of previous works on the
field of COVID-19 in Bangladesh and their followed methods.
Table 2. Previous works related to COVID-19 in Bangladesh
Article Methods Results
[17] ANFIS and LSTM 0.75 correlation coefficients (LSTM)
[18] Facebook Prophet R2 score of 89%
[19] LSTM networks and Logistic Curve
methods
R2 score of 95%
(Stacked LSTM)
[20] SIR mathematical model R2 score of 87%
From the discussed works of COVID-19 prediction in Bangladesh, [17] and [18] only predicted the
newly infected cases and [20] predicted final or total infected cases which motivated us to predict in more
categories like daily new confirmed cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery. Hridoy et al. [19]
predicted total confirmed cases, total deaths and total recovery with limited data and got some reasonable R2
scores as their data was limited. In our study we added more data for training purpose and also predicted for
upcoming 30 days which helps in making more suitable decisions. The detailed methodology is discussed in
section 2.
2. RESEARCH METHOD
As some of the previous works for predicting COVID-19 in Bangladesh lacks more categories in
prediction like daily new fatality and daily new recovery and some of the works lack of updated and more
data, we propose a machine learning based approach for predicting COVID-19 Bangladesh cases in three
categories with updated data from 17th March to 30th September with great accuracy. In this paper, the
predictions are done in three categories such as daily newly infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new
recovered patients in the next 30 days range. For that purpose, firstly we obtained the dataset and performed
preprocessing and feature selection before training the data. For training, we used multiple linear regression,
ridge regression, lasso regression and Facebook prophet and implemented using python programming
language. After training, we evaluated the performance of the training model in terms of ๐‘…2
score, ๐‘…2
adjusted score, mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and RMSE. The proposed
methodology shown in Figure 1.
2.2. Dataset
The most important phase of any research is the collection of data. We used two datasets in our
study. We collected the datasets from GitHub repository maintained by our world in data [21] and the official
website of WHO [22]. Both the datasets contains daily COVID-19 updates of more than 200 countries
including Bangladesh. As the datasets contained data of countries other than Bangladesh, we extracted the
data of Bangladesh from both datasets and combined them. We also confirmed the authenticity of the data
with daily updates given by the Ministry of Health of Bangladesh [23].
2.3. Preprocessing and feature selection
As the dataset contained a lot of null values, we replaced all the null values with 0. For example, the
number of total deaths on the 17th of March 2020 in the dataset was represented as null which means there
were no deaths that day. So, null values were replaced by 0. Also, the dataset was standardized in some
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situations before training. Some of the features of the dataset were necessary and some were not. The
unnecessary features were removed and necessary features were used for training the models. The features
which were necessary in a particular model was used in that particular model.
Figure 1. Proposed methodology
2.4. Splitting the dataset into train and test set
The dataset contains COVID-19 daily updates of Bangladesh from 17th March to 30th September.
After the initial preprocessing and feature selection steps, we divided the dataset into two subsets, train, and
test set. The training dataset contains data of COVID-19 from 17th March to 31st August (167 days) and the
testing dataset contains data of 1st September to 30th September (30 days). After that the training dataset was
used in training the models and testing dataset was used to test the models.
2.5. Machine learning models
2.5.1. Multiple linear regression model
Multiple linear regression, which is also known by the name multiple regression, is an extension of
linear regression, which takes multiple independent variables as input (input variables) and finds the relation
between the independent variables and a dependent variable (output) [24]. The relation between the
independent variables and the dependent variable can be defined by (1).
๐‘ฆ = ๐›ฝ0 + ๐›ฝ1๐‘ฅ1 + ๐›ฝ2๐‘ฅ2 + โ‹ฏ ๐›ฝ๐‘๐‘ฅ๐‘ + ๐œ– (1)
Here, ๐›ฝ0 is the intercept and ๐›ฝ1, ๐›ฝ2, โ€ฆ ๐›ฝ๐‘ are the coefficients, p is the number of independent variables,
๐‘ฅ1, ๐‘ฅ2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ฅ๐‘ are the independent variables, ๐œ– is the error term and y is the dependent variable that is to be
predicted.
2.5.2. Ridge regression
Ridge regression is regularization technique, which reduces model complexity using a penalty score
and computational expenses [25].
๐‘…๐‘–๐‘‘๐‘”๐‘’ ๐‘…๐‘’๐‘”๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› = ๐ฟ๐‘œ๐‘ ๐‘  + ๐›ผ โ€–๐‘คโ€–2
(2)
Here, loss is measured from the difference between predicted value and actual value. Penalty is calculated in
terms of product of ๐›ผ which is a constant value and โ€–๐‘คโ€–2
where w is simply a vector of the coefficients.
Penalty reduces loss and scales down coefficient magnitude.
โ€–๐‘คโ€–2
= ๐‘ค1
2
+ ๐‘ค2
2
+ โ‹ฏ + ๐‘ค๐‘
2
(3)
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Here ๐‘ค1, ๐‘ค2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ค๐‘ are coefficients.
2.5.3. Lasso regression
Like ridge regression, Lasso regression is also a regularization technique which reduces model
complexity using a penalty score [26]. It is defined in (4).
๐ฟ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘œ ๐‘…๐‘’๐‘”๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› = ๐ฟ๐‘œ๐‘ ๐‘  + ๐›ผ โ€–๐‘คโ€– (4)
Same as ridge regression, loss is calculated from the difference between predicted value and actual value
also. This loss is reduced using a penalty score. Penalty is calculated in terms of product of ๐›ผ which is a
constant value and โ€–๐‘คโ€– where w is simply a vector of the coefficients. Penalty reduces loss and scales down
coefficient magnitude. Calculation of โ€–๐‘คโ€– is shown in (5).
โ€–๐‘คโ€– = ๐‘ค1 + ๐‘ค2 + โ‹ฏ + ๐‘ค๐‘ (5)
Here ๐‘ค1, ๐‘ค2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ค๐‘ are coefficients.
2.5.4. Facebook Prophet
Facebook Prophet was developed by Facebookโ€™s core data science team which is largely used in
forecasting time series based on daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly trend [27]. This algorithm is open source
and is used for producing many reliable forecasting outputs across Facebook. Forecast is done using a
logistic growth trend model with a specified carrying capacity using Facebook Prophet. We implemented
these algorithms using scikit-learn and Fbprophet library of python.
2.6. Evaluation parameters
We evaluated the accuracy of our model in terms of R-Squared (R2) Score [28], R-squared adjusted
score (๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘—
2
) [28], MSE [29], MAE [30] and RMSE. The equations (6)-(10) are used to calculate these
evaluation parameters.
๐‘…2
=
โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ
ฬ‚๐‘–โˆ’๐‘ฆ
ฬ…)2
๐‘›
๐‘–=1
โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘–โˆ’๐‘ฆ
ฬ…)2
๐‘›
๐‘–=1
(6)
๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘—
2
= 1 โˆ’
(1โˆ’๐‘…2)(๐‘โˆ’1)
๐‘โˆ’๐‘ƒโˆ’1
(7)
๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ =
1
๐‘›
โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ
ฬ‚)2
๐‘›
๐‘–=1 (8)
๐‘€๐ด๐ธ =
1
๐‘›
โˆ‘ |๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ
ฬ‚|
๐‘›
๐‘–=1 (9)
๐‘…๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ = โˆš
1
๐‘›
โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ
ฬ‚)2
๐‘›
๐‘–=1 (10)
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1. Daily new infected cases forecasting
Figure 2 shows the daily new infected cases in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August
(167 days). In our study, multiple linear regression and ridge regression performed best among the four
models in predicting daily new cases. Table 3 contains the performance evaluation of all the models. Table 3
shows that multiple linear regression and ridge regression both performed equivalently and obtained R2 score
of 0.99. They also got the same amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE error which are lowest among all
algorithms. Facebook Prophet performed lowest among other algorithms in predicting daily new infected
cases and got 0.92 R2 score with highest MSE, MAE and RMSE error scores. Figures 3(a) and 3(b) shows
the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression, Lasso regression and Facebook Prophet in
predicting new cases in the form of graph. The prediction graph of linear regression in Figure 3 is trending
downwards at the beginning which means that new cases are decreasing but at the end of the graph we can
see an upward trend which indicated that the daily new cases can increase in the upcoming days.
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Figure 2. Daily new infected cases of 17th
March to 31st
August
Table 3. Performance of the models in new cases forecasting
MODELS R2 R2 Adjusted MSE MAE RMSE
MLR 0.99 0.99 0.004 0.05 0.06
RIDGE 0.99 0.99 0.004 0.05 0.06
LASSO 0.97 0.94 2884.15 48.27 53.70
PROPHET 0.92 0.92 130469.30 272.32 361.20
(a)
(b)
Figure 3. Prediction of new cases by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and
(b) Facebook Prophet
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3.2. Daily new fatality cases forecasting
Figure 4 shows the daily new fatality in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August (167 days). In
our study, multiple linear regression, ridge regression and Lasso regression performed best and same among
the four models in predicting daily new fatality. Table 4 contains the performance evaluation of all the
models.
Figure 4. Daily new fatality of 17th
March to 31st
August
Table 4 shows that multiple linear regression, ridge regression and Lasso regression performed
equivalently and obtained R2 score of 0.99. Multiple linear regression and ridge regression both got the
lowest and same amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE error among all algorithms. Facebook Prophet performed
lowest among all algorithms in predicting daily new fatality and got 0.83 R2 score with highest MSE, MAE
and RMSE error scores.
Table 4. Performance of the models in new fatality forecasting
Models ๐‘…2
๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘—
2
๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ ๐‘€๐ด๐ธ ๐‘…๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ
MLR 0.99 0.99 0.003 0.05 0.06
RIDGE 0.99 0.99 0.003 0.05 0.06
LASSO 0.99 0.99 0.007 0.06 0.085
PROPHET 0.83 0.83 50.64 5.43 7.11
Figure 5(a) and 5(b) shows the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression, Lasso
regression and Facebook prophet in predicting new fatality in the form of graph. As the three models got the
same accuracy, we can see that the line plots overlapped one another. If we look at the daily new fatality
graph of multiple linear regression in Figure 6, it indicated that the number of deaths will not fluctuate but
increase of new confirmed cases will definitely increase the daily new deaths.
3.3. Daily new recovery forecasting
Figure 6 shows the daily new recovery in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August (167 days).
In our study, multiple linear regression performed best among the four models in predicting daily new
recovery. Table 5 contains the performance evaluation of all the models.
Table 5 shows that multiple linear regression performed best in prediction daily new recovery by
obtaining R2 score of 0.99. Multiple linear regression also got the lowest amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE
error among all algorithms. Facebook prophet performed very poorly by obtaining 0.34 R2 score with huge
MSE, MAE and RMSE error scores.
Figure 7(a) and 7(b) shows the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression lasso
regression and Facebook Prophet in predicting daily new recovery in the form of graph. In case of daily new
recovery graph of multiple linear regression shown in Figure 8, there is a little bit fluctuation at end of the
curve. More hospital facilities will definitely increase the number of daily new recovery.
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(a)
(b)
Figure 5. Prediction of new fatality by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and
(b) Facebook Prophet
Figure 6. Daily new recovery cases of 17th
March to 31st
August
Table 5. Performance of the models in new recovery forecasting
MODELS R2 R2 Adjusted MSE MAE RMSE
MLR 0.94 0.94 0.05 0.16 0.23
RIDGE 0.43 0.42 0.56 0.61 0.74
LASSO 0.75 0.74 0.24 0.38 0.49
PROPHET 0.34 0.33 2026000.12 652.41 1423.37
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(a)
(b)
Figure 7. Prediction of new recovery by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and
(b) Facebook Prophet
3.4. Performance evaluation of all the models with 40 days prediction interval
In the previous sections, four ML forecasting models were used to forecast COVID-19 threat in
three categories such as daily new infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovered patients in the
next 30 days range. Among the four models, multiple linear regression performed better among other models.
So, the model was used for further analysis where we trained the model in a 40 days prediction interval. At
first, we trained all the models with from 17th March to 3rd May (48) days and predicted upcoming 30 days
in which multiple linear regression performed best in first two categories and reasonably in the third category
due to lack of data. The performance of multiple linear regression was followed by ridge regression, lasso
regression and lastly Facebook Prophet which performed less among all algorithms. In the second interval,
data of 17th March to 12th June (88 days) were used to train the models. Data of another 40 more days was
added in this interval and prediction was made for upcoming 30 days in which the outcomes were same as
the first interval. In the third prediction interval, data of 17th March to 22nd July (128 days) were used to
train the models in which 40 more additional days were added to predict upcoming 30 days. In this interval,
multiple linear regression outperformed other algorithms in all three categories. For the fourth interval, data
of 17th March to 31st July (168 days) were used to train the models in which 40 more additional days were
added to predict upcoming 30 days. The results of this interval was discussed in the previous sections where
we showed that multiple linear regression outperformed all other algorithms.
Table 6 shows the performance details of all the models in forecasting new confirmed cases in the
four intervals. Figure 8(a), 8(b) and 8(c) show the performance of multiple linear regression in all the
categories (daily new cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery) in four intervals. Due to the lack of
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highly correlated features, multiple linear regression showed reasonable in the third category but no other
algorithms among the four except multiple linear regression could perform better in the third category.
Table 6. Performance of the models in new cases forecasting in four intervals
Dataset Size
(Number of days)
MLR RIDGE LASSO PROPHET
48 Best Best Best Well
88 Best Best Better Better
128 Best Best Better Well
168 Best Best Best Well
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 8. Performance of multiple linear regression with all intervals in prediction (a) daily new cases,
(b) daily new fatality, and (c) daily new recovery
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4. CONCLUSION
With the advancement of technology, the forecasting of any kind of threat is now in our grasp.
COVID-19 is a huge threat for the whole world as well as for Bangladesh. In our research, we focused on
assessing the current COVID-19 situation and make future predictions on the basis of those assessment. We
focused on three categories as daily new infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery. In our
research, we used four machine learning based predictive models such as multiple linear regression, ridge
regression, lasso regression and Facebook Prophet. In our study, multiple linear regression performed the
best with ๐‘…2
score of 99% on daily new infected cases and daily new fatality and 94% on daily new recovery.
The forecast can be a great help to the authorities to understand the current pandemic situation and to take
steps in relaxing the current COVID-19 crisis. In the future, we want to enhance this study more and work on
real time live forecasting on COVID-19.
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2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it (accessed Dec. 27, 2020).
[2] WHO, โ€œArcGIS Dashboards.โ€ https://covid19.who.int/ (accessed Oct. 01, 2020).
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Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ
The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman)
4287
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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS
Maqsudur Rahman Lecturer at Department of Information and
Communication Technology, Comilla University, (Bangladesh). Teaching area includes
Computer Programming, Computer Networks, data Communication and Mobile
Communication. Research interests lie at Digital Communication, IoT and Network
Security. He can be contacted at email: mrrajon@cou.ac.bd.
Md. Tofael Ahmed Associate Professor of ICT, Comilla University
(Bangladesh). Completed PhD from India. Research area includes Cyberbullying
Detection, Data Mining, Text Analytic, Big Data, Online Social Network analysis. He can
be contacted at email: tofael@cou.ac.bd.
Shafayet Nur Teaching Assistant at Department of Computer Science and
Engineering, Port City International University (Bangladesh). Research interest includes
Machine Learning, Deep Learning Approaches, Natural Language Processing, performance
Analysis. Teaching area includes Data Structure and Algorithms, Pattern Recognition. He
can be contacted at email:shafayetnur.abir@gmail.com.
Abu Zafor Muhammad Touhidul Islam Professor of Electrical and
Electronics Engineering, Rajshahi University, Bangladesh. Completed PhD from Japan.
Research interest includes Big Data, Online Social Network analysis. He can be contacted
at email: touhid.eee@ru.ac.bd.

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The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Bangladesh perspective using machine learning: a comparative study

  • 1. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022, pp. 4276~4287 ISSN: 2088-8708, DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v12i4.pp4276-4287 ๏ฒ 4276 Journal homepage: http://ijece.iaescore.com The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Bangladesh perspective using machine learning: a comparative study Maqsudur Rahman1 , Md. Tofael Ahmed1 , Shafayet Nur2 , Abu Zafor Muhammad Touhidul Islam3 1 Department of Information and Communication Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Comilla University, Comilla, Bangladesh 2 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Port City International University, Chattogram, Bangladesh 3 Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Rajshahi University, Rajshahi, Bangladesh Article Info ABSTRACT Article history: Received Oct 17, 2020 Revised Mar 27, 2022 Accepted Apr 11, 2022 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a huge pandemic situation in many countries of the world including Bangladesh. If the increase rate of this threat can be forecasted, immediate measures can be taken. This study is an effort to forecast the threat of present pandemic situation using machine learning (ML) forecasting models. Forecasting was done in three categories in the next 30 days range. In our study, multiple linear regression performed best among the other algorithms in all categories with R2 score of 99% for first two categories and 94% for the third category. Ridge regression performed great for the first two categories with R2 scores of 99% each but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 43%. Lasso regression performed reasonably well with R2 scores of 97%, 99% and 75% for the three categories. We also used Facebook Prophet to predict 30 days beyond our train data which gave us healthy R2 scores of 92% and 83% for the first two categories but performed poorly for the third category with R2 score of 34%. Also, all the modelsโ€™ performances were evaluated with a 40- day prediction interval in which multiple linear regression outperformed other algorithms. Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019 Facebook Prophet Lasso regression Multiple linear regression Ridge regression This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license. Corresponding Author: Maqsudur Rahman Department of Information and Communication Technology, Faculty of Engineering, Comilla University Comilla, Bangladesh Email: mrrajon@cou.ac.bd 1. INTRODUCTION The coronavirus 2 is severe acute respiratory syndrome which is the main cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an ongoing pandemic in many countries of the world [1]. Wuhan, Hubei, China is the place where this disease was first recorded in December 2019. About 36 million new cases and more than 1 million fatalities have been reported worldwide till date [2]. Many researchers and scientists are working hard to find a vaccine to prevent this virus. Because of this pandemic, the moral of people have crashed. Many countries are facing economic challenges. However, Bangladesh is a country of lower middle economy and also one of the most populated countries of the world is hit by this devastating pandemic. The world is taking precautions to lower the threat of this pandemic. So, it has become very essential also for Bangladesh to forecast the threat of the current situation which will help in taking precautions which can save many lives. Machine learning (ML) based predictive models can be a promising solution in this case. ML is proven to be a prominent field of study and also ML forecasting models can be utilized to analyze data to forecast future
  • 2. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4277 scenario with great accuracy and performance. Various regression and neural network models are used to forecast threats of different diseases. Lapuerta et al. [3] predicted the risk of coronary artery disease using neural network and Voyant et al. [4] presented methods for solar radiation forecasting using machine learning. Moreover, prediction equations for several cardiovascular disease endpoints were presented by Anderson et al. [5]. Furthermore, to predict breast cancer risks and to diagnosis breast cancer Bharat et al. [6] used ML models. Farhana et al. [7] presented an intrusion detection system using deep learning approach. These models can also be used to forecast the threats of COVID-19 as well like Yadav et al. [8] analyzed the risk factors of COVID-19 using machine learning approach and Rustam et al. [9] forecasted worldwide COVID-19 situation through the supervised machine learning approach and got the accuracy up to mark. Zeroual et al. [10] also used deep learning approach to forecast COVID-19 time series data. Besides many more research is done in this field recently to find out the possible friendly pattern. The following are some detailed discussions on some of the worldwide works on COVID-19 threat prediction. Rustam et al. [9] forecasted COVID-19 threats in three categories, number of new positive cases, the number of deaths and the number of recoveries of upcoming 10 days. They used supervised ML models linear regression, lasso regression, support vector machine (SVM) and exponential smoothing to fulfill their work. In their study, exponential smoothing performed best among other algorithms and got R2 scores of 98%, 98% and 99% for the three categories. In this research, prediction was done for upcoming 10 days only but in our research, we predicted for upcoming 30 days. Furthermore, Shastri et al. provided a comparative study of COVID-19 outbreak in India and USA [11]. They proposed a deep learning based predictive system and forecasted COVID-19 cases for 30 days ahead. Prediction was done in this research only in two categories for two countries such as confirmed cases and death cases. In our research, we contributed one more category which is the number of daily new recovered patients. There were also some other previous works related to COVID-19 forecasting worldwide, like Wang et al. [12] used patient information based algorithm to forecast real-time prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 and in Alazab et al. [13] analyzed the incidence of COVID-19 distribution across the world by presenting artificial-intelligence technique based on a deep convolutional neural network to detect COVID-19 patients from the real-world datasets. In [14], Elmousalami and Hassanien utilized time series models and numerical detailing to represent the correlation of the day level to determine COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, a flower pollination algorithm by using the salp swarm algorithm-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (FPASSA-ANFIS) model and flower pollination algorithm (FPA) was used by Al-Qanees et al. [15] for predicting the confirmed cases for the upcoming 10 days in Chia and USA using World Health Organization (WHO) official dataset. Yudistira [16], suggested more effective models to handle the nonlinearity and the complexity of the COVID-19 time-series data. Table 1 contains a list of some previous works on the field of predicting worldwide COVID-19 risk factors and their followed methods. The following are some works related to COVID-19 prediction in Bangladesh. Table 1. Previous worldwide works related to COVID-19 prediction Article Methods Results [7] Supervised machine learning Models Exponential Smoothing performed best with R2 scores 98% for new cases and new deaths and 99% for recovery rate [9] Recurrent neural network (RNN) based variants LSTM such as Stacked LSTM, Bi-directional LSTM and convolutional LSTM 97% (Convolutional LSTM for confirmed cases of India-USA) [10] RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM, gated recurrent units (GRUs) and VAE algorithms VAE outperformed all other algorithms [11] Prophet algorithm (PA), 0ARIMA, LSTM 99% accuracy (Prophet algorithm for confirmed cases in Australia and Jordan) [12] Comparison of day level forecasting models Single Exponential Smoothing Performed more accurately [13] An improved ANFIS using an enhanced FPA by using the SSA R2 score of 96% (FPASSA-ANFIS method) [14] LSTM RMSE score of 1238.66 (LSTM) Chowdhury et al. [17] foresaw the newly infected cases in Bangladesh. They used the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) in three scenarios where they took input of last four consecutive odd days for the first, even days for the second and last four consecutive days for the third scenario in evaluated the models. In their study, LSTM showed good root mean square error (RMSE) value and correlation coefficient in forecasting the outbreak. In this research
  • 3. ๏ฒ ISSN: 2088-8708 Int J Elec & Comp Eng, Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022: 4276-4287 4278 prediction was done only for newly infected cases but, in our research, we performed prediction for newly infected cases as well as daily new fatality and daily new recovery. The study in [18] by Mahmud aims to predict and analyze the daily cases data of Bangladesh using the Facebook Prophet model for which they collected data from 9th march to 21st July and prediction was done up to 19th September with a R2 value of 89%. In our research we got 3% more accuracy for Facebook Prophet in daily new infected cases. Data-driven estimation methods were presented by Hridoy et al. in [19], for predicting the possible number of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. They used data from 8th March 2020 to 13th June 2020 for LSTM models and 8th March 2020 to 18th June 2020 for logistic curve fitting model. They used 3 LSTM models such as vanilla, stacked, bidirectional and got good R2 scores for total confirmed cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths prediction. They predicted in three categories but their data was limited. In [20], Rahman et al. projected final infected number of COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh using standardized infection ratios (SIR) mathematical model with data collected from IEDCR Bangladesh. They obtained data from March 8 to April 20 and got reasonable results. This research lacks more data. This research also lacks the prediction in more than 1 category. Table 2 contains the list of previous works on the field of COVID-19 in Bangladesh and their followed methods. Table 2. Previous works related to COVID-19 in Bangladesh Article Methods Results [17] ANFIS and LSTM 0.75 correlation coefficients (LSTM) [18] Facebook Prophet R2 score of 89% [19] LSTM networks and Logistic Curve methods R2 score of 95% (Stacked LSTM) [20] SIR mathematical model R2 score of 87% From the discussed works of COVID-19 prediction in Bangladesh, [17] and [18] only predicted the newly infected cases and [20] predicted final or total infected cases which motivated us to predict in more categories like daily new confirmed cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery. Hridoy et al. [19] predicted total confirmed cases, total deaths and total recovery with limited data and got some reasonable R2 scores as their data was limited. In our study we added more data for training purpose and also predicted for upcoming 30 days which helps in making more suitable decisions. The detailed methodology is discussed in section 2. 2. RESEARCH METHOD As some of the previous works for predicting COVID-19 in Bangladesh lacks more categories in prediction like daily new fatality and daily new recovery and some of the works lack of updated and more data, we propose a machine learning based approach for predicting COVID-19 Bangladesh cases in three categories with updated data from 17th March to 30th September with great accuracy. In this paper, the predictions are done in three categories such as daily newly infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovered patients in the next 30 days range. For that purpose, firstly we obtained the dataset and performed preprocessing and feature selection before training the data. For training, we used multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and Facebook prophet and implemented using python programming language. After training, we evaluated the performance of the training model in terms of ๐‘…2 score, ๐‘…2 adjusted score, mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and RMSE. The proposed methodology shown in Figure 1. 2.2. Dataset The most important phase of any research is the collection of data. We used two datasets in our study. We collected the datasets from GitHub repository maintained by our world in data [21] and the official website of WHO [22]. Both the datasets contains daily COVID-19 updates of more than 200 countries including Bangladesh. As the datasets contained data of countries other than Bangladesh, we extracted the data of Bangladesh from both datasets and combined them. We also confirmed the authenticity of the data with daily updates given by the Ministry of Health of Bangladesh [23]. 2.3. Preprocessing and feature selection As the dataset contained a lot of null values, we replaced all the null values with 0. For example, the number of total deaths on the 17th of March 2020 in the dataset was represented as null which means there were no deaths that day. So, null values were replaced by 0. Also, the dataset was standardized in some
  • 4. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4279 situations before training. Some of the features of the dataset were necessary and some were not. The unnecessary features were removed and necessary features were used for training the models. The features which were necessary in a particular model was used in that particular model. Figure 1. Proposed methodology 2.4. Splitting the dataset into train and test set The dataset contains COVID-19 daily updates of Bangladesh from 17th March to 30th September. After the initial preprocessing and feature selection steps, we divided the dataset into two subsets, train, and test set. The training dataset contains data of COVID-19 from 17th March to 31st August (167 days) and the testing dataset contains data of 1st September to 30th September (30 days). After that the training dataset was used in training the models and testing dataset was used to test the models. 2.5. Machine learning models 2.5.1. Multiple linear regression model Multiple linear regression, which is also known by the name multiple regression, is an extension of linear regression, which takes multiple independent variables as input (input variables) and finds the relation between the independent variables and a dependent variable (output) [24]. The relation between the independent variables and the dependent variable can be defined by (1). ๐‘ฆ = ๐›ฝ0 + ๐›ฝ1๐‘ฅ1 + ๐›ฝ2๐‘ฅ2 + โ‹ฏ ๐›ฝ๐‘๐‘ฅ๐‘ + ๐œ– (1) Here, ๐›ฝ0 is the intercept and ๐›ฝ1, ๐›ฝ2, โ€ฆ ๐›ฝ๐‘ are the coefficients, p is the number of independent variables, ๐‘ฅ1, ๐‘ฅ2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ฅ๐‘ are the independent variables, ๐œ– is the error term and y is the dependent variable that is to be predicted. 2.5.2. Ridge regression Ridge regression is regularization technique, which reduces model complexity using a penalty score and computational expenses [25]. ๐‘…๐‘–๐‘‘๐‘”๐‘’ ๐‘…๐‘’๐‘”๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› = ๐ฟ๐‘œ๐‘ ๐‘  + ๐›ผ โ€–๐‘คโ€–2 (2) Here, loss is measured from the difference between predicted value and actual value. Penalty is calculated in terms of product of ๐›ผ which is a constant value and โ€–๐‘คโ€–2 where w is simply a vector of the coefficients. Penalty reduces loss and scales down coefficient magnitude. โ€–๐‘คโ€–2 = ๐‘ค1 2 + ๐‘ค2 2 + โ‹ฏ + ๐‘ค๐‘ 2 (3)
  • 5. ๏ฒ ISSN: 2088-8708 Int J Elec & Comp Eng, Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022: 4276-4287 4280 Here ๐‘ค1, ๐‘ค2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ค๐‘ are coefficients. 2.5.3. Lasso regression Like ridge regression, Lasso regression is also a regularization technique which reduces model complexity using a penalty score [26]. It is defined in (4). ๐ฟ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘œ ๐‘…๐‘’๐‘”๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› = ๐ฟ๐‘œ๐‘ ๐‘  + ๐›ผ โ€–๐‘คโ€– (4) Same as ridge regression, loss is calculated from the difference between predicted value and actual value also. This loss is reduced using a penalty score. Penalty is calculated in terms of product of ๐›ผ which is a constant value and โ€–๐‘คโ€– where w is simply a vector of the coefficients. Penalty reduces loss and scales down coefficient magnitude. Calculation of โ€–๐‘คโ€– is shown in (5). โ€–๐‘คโ€– = ๐‘ค1 + ๐‘ค2 + โ‹ฏ + ๐‘ค๐‘ (5) Here ๐‘ค1, ๐‘ค2, โ€ฆ ๐‘ค๐‘ are coefficients. 2.5.4. Facebook Prophet Facebook Prophet was developed by Facebookโ€™s core data science team which is largely used in forecasting time series based on daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly trend [27]. This algorithm is open source and is used for producing many reliable forecasting outputs across Facebook. Forecast is done using a logistic growth trend model with a specified carrying capacity using Facebook Prophet. We implemented these algorithms using scikit-learn and Fbprophet library of python. 2.6. Evaluation parameters We evaluated the accuracy of our model in terms of R-Squared (R2) Score [28], R-squared adjusted score (๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘— 2 ) [28], MSE [29], MAE [30] and RMSE. The equations (6)-(10) are used to calculate these evaluation parameters. ๐‘…2 = โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ ฬ‚๐‘–โˆ’๐‘ฆ ฬ…)2 ๐‘› ๐‘–=1 โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘–โˆ’๐‘ฆ ฬ…)2 ๐‘› ๐‘–=1 (6) ๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘— 2 = 1 โˆ’ (1โˆ’๐‘…2)(๐‘โˆ’1) ๐‘โˆ’๐‘ƒโˆ’1 (7) ๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ = 1 ๐‘› โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ ฬ‚)2 ๐‘› ๐‘–=1 (8) ๐‘€๐ด๐ธ = 1 ๐‘› โˆ‘ |๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ ฬ‚| ๐‘› ๐‘–=1 (9) ๐‘…๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ = โˆš 1 ๐‘› โˆ‘ (๐‘ฆ๐‘– โˆ’ ๐‘ฆ ฬ‚)2 ๐‘› ๐‘–=1 (10) 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. Daily new infected cases forecasting Figure 2 shows the daily new infected cases in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August (167 days). In our study, multiple linear regression and ridge regression performed best among the four models in predicting daily new cases. Table 3 contains the performance evaluation of all the models. Table 3 shows that multiple linear regression and ridge regression both performed equivalently and obtained R2 score of 0.99. They also got the same amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE error which are lowest among all algorithms. Facebook Prophet performed lowest among other algorithms in predicting daily new infected cases and got 0.92 R2 score with highest MSE, MAE and RMSE error scores. Figures 3(a) and 3(b) shows the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression, Lasso regression and Facebook Prophet in predicting new cases in the form of graph. The prediction graph of linear regression in Figure 3 is trending downwards at the beginning which means that new cases are decreasing but at the end of the graph we can see an upward trend which indicated that the daily new cases can increase in the upcoming days.
  • 6. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4281 Figure 2. Daily new infected cases of 17th March to 31st August Table 3. Performance of the models in new cases forecasting MODELS R2 R2 Adjusted MSE MAE RMSE MLR 0.99 0.99 0.004 0.05 0.06 RIDGE 0.99 0.99 0.004 0.05 0.06 LASSO 0.97 0.94 2884.15 48.27 53.70 PROPHET 0.92 0.92 130469.30 272.32 361.20 (a) (b) Figure 3. Prediction of new cases by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and (b) Facebook Prophet
  • 7. ๏ฒ ISSN: 2088-8708 Int J Elec & Comp Eng, Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022: 4276-4287 4282 3.2. Daily new fatality cases forecasting Figure 4 shows the daily new fatality in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August (167 days). In our study, multiple linear regression, ridge regression and Lasso regression performed best and same among the four models in predicting daily new fatality. Table 4 contains the performance evaluation of all the models. Figure 4. Daily new fatality of 17th March to 31st August Table 4 shows that multiple linear regression, ridge regression and Lasso regression performed equivalently and obtained R2 score of 0.99. Multiple linear regression and ridge regression both got the lowest and same amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE error among all algorithms. Facebook Prophet performed lowest among all algorithms in predicting daily new fatality and got 0.83 R2 score with highest MSE, MAE and RMSE error scores. Table 4. Performance of the models in new fatality forecasting Models ๐‘…2 ๐‘…๐‘Ž๐‘‘๐‘— 2 ๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ ๐‘€๐ด๐ธ ๐‘…๐‘€๐‘†๐ธ MLR 0.99 0.99 0.003 0.05 0.06 RIDGE 0.99 0.99 0.003 0.05 0.06 LASSO 0.99 0.99 0.007 0.06 0.085 PROPHET 0.83 0.83 50.64 5.43 7.11 Figure 5(a) and 5(b) shows the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression, Lasso regression and Facebook prophet in predicting new fatality in the form of graph. As the three models got the same accuracy, we can see that the line plots overlapped one another. If we look at the daily new fatality graph of multiple linear regression in Figure 6, it indicated that the number of deaths will not fluctuate but increase of new confirmed cases will definitely increase the daily new deaths. 3.3. Daily new recovery forecasting Figure 6 shows the daily new recovery in Bangladesh from 17th March to 31st August (167 days). In our study, multiple linear regression performed best among the four models in predicting daily new recovery. Table 5 contains the performance evaluation of all the models. Table 5 shows that multiple linear regression performed best in prediction daily new recovery by obtaining R2 score of 0.99. Multiple linear regression also got the lowest amount of MSE, MAE and RMSE error among all algorithms. Facebook prophet performed very poorly by obtaining 0.34 R2 score with huge MSE, MAE and RMSE error scores. Figure 7(a) and 7(b) shows the performance of multiple linear regression, ridge regression lasso regression and Facebook Prophet in predicting daily new recovery in the form of graph. In case of daily new recovery graph of multiple linear regression shown in Figure 8, there is a little bit fluctuation at end of the curve. More hospital facilities will definitely increase the number of daily new recovery.
  • 8. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4283 (a) (b) Figure 5. Prediction of new fatality by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and (b) Facebook Prophet Figure 6. Daily new recovery cases of 17th March to 31st August Table 5. Performance of the models in new recovery forecasting MODELS R2 R2 Adjusted MSE MAE RMSE MLR 0.94 0.94 0.05 0.16 0.23 RIDGE 0.43 0.42 0.56 0.61 0.74 LASSO 0.75 0.74 0.24 0.38 0.49 PROPHET 0.34 0.33 2026000.12 652.41 1423.37
  • 9. ๏ฒ ISSN: 2088-8708 Int J Elec & Comp Eng, Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022: 4276-4287 4284 (a) (b) Figure 7. Prediction of new recovery by (a) multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and (b) Facebook Prophet 3.4. Performance evaluation of all the models with 40 days prediction interval In the previous sections, four ML forecasting models were used to forecast COVID-19 threat in three categories such as daily new infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovered patients in the next 30 days range. Among the four models, multiple linear regression performed better among other models. So, the model was used for further analysis where we trained the model in a 40 days prediction interval. At first, we trained all the models with from 17th March to 3rd May (48) days and predicted upcoming 30 days in which multiple linear regression performed best in first two categories and reasonably in the third category due to lack of data. The performance of multiple linear regression was followed by ridge regression, lasso regression and lastly Facebook Prophet which performed less among all algorithms. In the second interval, data of 17th March to 12th June (88 days) were used to train the models. Data of another 40 more days was added in this interval and prediction was made for upcoming 30 days in which the outcomes were same as the first interval. In the third prediction interval, data of 17th March to 22nd July (128 days) were used to train the models in which 40 more additional days were added to predict upcoming 30 days. In this interval, multiple linear regression outperformed other algorithms in all three categories. For the fourth interval, data of 17th March to 31st July (168 days) were used to train the models in which 40 more additional days were added to predict upcoming 30 days. The results of this interval was discussed in the previous sections where we showed that multiple linear regression outperformed all other algorithms. Table 6 shows the performance details of all the models in forecasting new confirmed cases in the four intervals. Figure 8(a), 8(b) and 8(c) show the performance of multiple linear regression in all the categories (daily new cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery) in four intervals. Due to the lack of
  • 10. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4285 highly correlated features, multiple linear regression showed reasonable in the third category but no other algorithms among the four except multiple linear regression could perform better in the third category. Table 6. Performance of the models in new cases forecasting in four intervals Dataset Size (Number of days) MLR RIDGE LASSO PROPHET 48 Best Best Best Well 88 Best Best Better Better 128 Best Best Better Well 168 Best Best Best Well (a) (b) (c) Figure 8. Performance of multiple linear regression with all intervals in prediction (a) daily new cases, (b) daily new fatality, and (c) daily new recovery
  • 11. ๏ฒ ISSN: 2088-8708 Int J Elec & Comp Eng, Vol. 12, No. 4, August 2022: 4276-4287 4286 4. CONCLUSION With the advancement of technology, the forecasting of any kind of threat is now in our grasp. COVID-19 is a huge threat for the whole world as well as for Bangladesh. In our research, we focused on assessing the current COVID-19 situation and make future predictions on the basis of those assessment. We focused on three categories as daily new infected cases, daily new fatality, and daily new recovery. In our research, we used four machine learning based predictive models such as multiple linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and Facebook Prophet. In our study, multiple linear regression performed the best with ๐‘…2 score of 99% on daily new infected cases and daily new fatality and 94% on daily new recovery. 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  • 12. Int J Elec & Comp Eng ISSN: 2088-8708 ๏ฒ The prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on Banglades โ€ฆ (Maqsudur Rahman) 4287 [29] H. Marmolin, โ€œSubjective MSE measures,โ€ IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 486โ€“489, 1986, doi: 10.1109/TSMC.1986.4308985. [30] C. Willmott and K. Matsuura, โ€œAdvantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance,โ€ Climate Research, vol. 30, pp. 79โ€“82, 2005, doi: 10.3354/cr030079. BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS Maqsudur Rahman Lecturer at Department of Information and Communication Technology, Comilla University, (Bangladesh). Teaching area includes Computer Programming, Computer Networks, data Communication and Mobile Communication. Research interests lie at Digital Communication, IoT and Network Security. He can be contacted at email: mrrajon@cou.ac.bd. Md. Tofael Ahmed Associate Professor of ICT, Comilla University (Bangladesh). Completed PhD from India. Research area includes Cyberbullying Detection, Data Mining, Text Analytic, Big Data, Online Social Network analysis. He can be contacted at email: tofael@cou.ac.bd. Shafayet Nur Teaching Assistant at Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Port City International University (Bangladesh). Research interest includes Machine Learning, Deep Learning Approaches, Natural Language Processing, performance Analysis. Teaching area includes Data Structure and Algorithms, Pattern Recognition. He can be contacted at email:shafayetnur.abir@gmail.com. Abu Zafor Muhammad Touhidul Islam Professor of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Rajshahi University, Bangladesh. Completed PhD from Japan. Research interest includes Big Data, Online Social Network analysis. He can be contacted at email: touhid.eee@ru.ac.bd.