This document presents a model analysis of the role of nuclear power in achieving net zero emissions targets in the United States. It discusses using a Times power system model to examine the economics of new nuclear plants and their impacts on decarbonizing the electricity sector. The analysis will look at four scenarios: costs of nuclear power, impacts on critical minerals, different emissions reduction pathways, and the effects of policies like the Inflation Reduction Act. The model aims to determine the competitiveness of nuclear power and prospects for replacing fossil fuels to 2030 and achieving zero-carbon electricity by 2035 and 2050.
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In kashmiri gate (Delhi) Call Us 9953056974
The Role of Nuclear Power in a Net Zero World - A Power System Times Model Analysis
1. PRESENTATION
The Role of Nuclear Power in a Net Zero
World – A Power System Times Model
Analysis
Emeka R. Ochu • June 2023
3
2. CGEP - Where the World Connects
THEMES REGIONS
ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMY &
MARKETS
GEOPOLITICS & SECURITY
AMERICAS
ASIA + PACIFIC
CHINA
INDIA
EUROPE
RUSSIA + EURASIA
MIDDLE EAST +
NORTH AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
ENERGY FOR
DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY
MARKETS
OIL
POWER SECTOR
CLIMATE
POLICY
NUCLEAR
NATURAL
GAS
INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY
CARBON
MANAGEMENT
RESEARCH INITIATIVES
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
3. Decarbonization of Power Sector Emissions is Key
U.S. GHG Emissions = 6,340.2 million metric tons of
CO2
Power Sector = 40% of Global energy-related
emissions
Power Sector Emissions = 25% of US GHG Emissions
(2021)
Power Sector Emissions = + 6.9% (coal power)
Change in generation mix in 2021, with increase in the
share of coal while zero-carbon power remained same
in 2020 led to a 4% in carbon intensity of electricity.
To support the goal of reducing global temperatures to
zero by 2050, the US NDC sets a target of net GHG
emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels in 2030
Zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035
GHG emissions by Economic Sector; EPA (2021)
4. Nuclear Power Can Help Decarbonization of Power
A “broad-based approach to deploying energy sector
mitigation options can reduce emissions over the
next ten years and set the stage for still deeper
reductions beyond 2030.” (IPCC, 2022).
Nuclear Power is stable and low-C intensity –
100gCO2e/kWh on LC basis – can replace coal &
NG to power large-scale grids
Combining nuclear power with renewable energy
can provide baseload capacity replacing fossil fuels.
Also useful for power Industrial & Transport sector
processes that otherwise required high-C fuels
444 operational reactors = 10% of global electricity
generation = 394 gigawatts of electricity
Nuclear Energy Agency (2021)
5. Problem Statement & Model Formulation
Does the Nuclear Power generation economics fit into the US power sector decarbonization strategy?
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
Objectives
• Examine the economics of new nuclear plants in a system-wide
electricity TIMES model for the US
❖ Involves updating the energy system US TIMES model to
include nuclear power costs, lead times, etc.
❖ Also involves creating the unit commitment constraints for
nuclear start-up costs, ramp up and shutdown rates, minimum
up/down times, etc.
• Examine the role of nuclear power in a decarbonized energy
market, as government policies such as the Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA), governments, business models continue to evolve.
Key Questions:
1. What are the prospects for nuclear power in achieving energy
sector decarbonization towards 2030 and net zero 2050?
2. What does the Levelized Cost of Carbon Abatement (LCCA) of
nuclear power look like and how price-competitive is nuclear
power in achieving deep decarbonization?
3. How does the IRA help?
4. What additional unique advantage increases the reliability of
nuclear power over renewable power?
Model Formulation/Structure
Our model will assume:
Economy-wide electrification with the introduction of 2 new nuclear
technologies (Light Water Reactor and Small Modular Reactor) to
analyze the relative effect of nuclear power on the decarbonization
of the electricity sector in a Business As Usual (BAU), Optimistic
(IPCC 1.5C Net Zero Scenarios by 2030 & 2050), and Moderate
(IPCC 2.0C Scenario) perspectives, reflected across all scenarios.
7
6. Understanding a Levelized Cost of Carbon Abatement (LCCA)
Recent Sovereign and Corporate Net-Zero emissions commitments involves investment decision making
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
What is the Value of doing a LCCA?
• Decisions on the optimum level and pathway to achieve
targets requires a cost-assessment methodology to determine
what pathways, technologies, policies and pathways to achieve
targets at the most cost-effective cost, and in what geographies
• And these must be estimated in a levelized manner
A LCCA:
• Measures how much CO2 can be reduced by a specific
investment, project, or policy, taking into account relevant factors
related to geography and specific assets.
• It calculates how much an investment or policy costs on the
basis of dollars per ton of emissions reduced.
LCCA Vs a MAC
• Due to averaging and similar generalizations, many MAC and
IAM estimates lack detailed local/regional specificity.
• Similarly, neither approach provides technical details based on
consistent assumptions (Kesicki, 2013), which can limit
understanding of where to invest marginal dollars, what policies
will yield the most CO2 reduction, and what sectors to prioritize.
• Many dynamic effects, e.g., rebound, are not incorporated in
these approaches.
• Consequently, MAC and IAM approaches underestimate costs
and do not fully represent required investments within the
energy transition.
8
7. Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor
Lorem Ipsum Dolor xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Lorem Ipsum Dolr xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Lorem Ipsum Dolor xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Total xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
2020 US Electricity Sector Unit Capacities
9
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
8. Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor Lorem Ipsum Dolor
Lorem Ipsum Dolor xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Lorem Ipsum Dolr xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Lorem Ipsum Dolor xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
Total xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
2020 Nuclear Power Unit Capacities
10
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
9. Scenario Design
4 Key Scenarios
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
Scenario 1: Cost Scenario
There are limited data points in more recent decades for costs to
build a nuclear power plant in the US.
• This scenario will evaluate the relative cost of building a nuclear
power plant vs the total energy system.
• The goal will be to analyze the levelized cost of a nuclear power
plant per emissions reduced to the entire energy system, and
deduce the cost of carbon emissions abatement from nuclear
power vs other energy production pathways.
• What is the impact of innovation in new reactor technologies on
the levelized cost of nuclear power? How economically
competitive are new nuclear plants vs other pathways?
Scenario 2: Critical Minerals
• This scenario examines the role critical minerals such
chromium, copper, manganese, etc. in clean energy transition
• Traces the commodity flow of critical minerals in nuclear
power generation, renewable power, and the entire system-wide
impact in the US
11
~TFM_MIG
TimeSlice LimType Attribute Year1 Year2 SourceScen AllRegions Pset_PN
INVCOST 2020 2030ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.6558526011560
69 E_NUC*01
INVCOST 2020 2050ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.3117052023121
39 E_NUC*01
FIXOM 2020 2030ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.6558526011560
69 E_NUC*01
FIXOM 2020 2050ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.3117052023121
39 E_NUC*01
VAROM 2020 2030ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.6558526011560
69 E_NUC*01
VAROM 2020 2050ELE_EIA_AEO2022
*0.3117052023121
39 E_NUC*01
~TFM_INS
TimeSlice LimType Attribute Year AllRegions Pset_Set Pset_PN Cset_CN
I:Unit kt/GW
NCAP_ICOM 0.0005 E_NUC_*01 Cd
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Ce
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Co
NCAP_ICOM 2.1900 E_NUC_*01 Cr
NCAP_ICOM 1.4730 E_NUC_*01 Cu
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Dy
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Er
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Eu
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Ga
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Gd
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Ho
NCAP_ICOM 0.0016 E_NUC_*01 In
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 La
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Lu
NCAP_ICOM 0.1480 E_NUC_*01 Mn
NCAP_ICOM 0.0710 E_NUC_*01 Mo
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Nd
NCAP_ICOM 1.2970 E_NUC_*01 Ni
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Pm
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Pr
NCAP_ICOM 0.0010 E_NUC_*01 REE
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Sc
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Si
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Sm
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Tb
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Te
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Tm
NCAP_ICOM 0.0005 E_NUC_*01 Y
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Yb
NCAP_ICOM 0.0000 E_NUC_*01 Zn
NCAP_ICOM 0.0940 E_NUC_*01 Ot
10. Scenario Design
4 Key Scenarios
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
Scenario 3: Emissions Reduction Scenario
• Examines the impact of nuclear power generation to the
power sector decarbonization of the U.S. in a BAU, moderate
and optimistic scenario
• Analyses the prospects of nuclear power in achieving the US
NDC of zero-C electricity generation by 2035
• Key parameters include current power sector emissions for
2020 (our upper limit), assume 50% power sector emissions
reduction target for 2030 with zero-carbon scenario in 2035
and 2050 also.
Scenario 4: Policy & Financing Incentives Scenario
Financing incentives have played a significant role in incentivizing
development and market penetration of nascent technologies. IRA
provides for both existing and new nuclear capacities.
12
Type of power plants Operation Service Period Site (region) Incentive
Existing 2024-2032 All PTC: $15/MWh
New installations From 2025 Regular Either a PTC: $25/MWh
or
ITC: 30% of investment cost
Brown field site/fossil
community bonus (+10%)
PTC: $27.5/MWh
or
ITC: 40% of investment costs
13. IRA Helps Nuclear Contribution to Electricity Generation Mix
15
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
774 774
760
821
297
1032
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
BAU IRA BAU IRA BAU IRA
2020 2030 2050
Generation
(TWh)
BAU vs IRA Generation Mix (TWh)
Wind
CSP
SPV
Nuclear
MSW
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
Coal
Biomass
21% 21%
18%
19%
6%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BAU IRA BAU IRA BAU IRA
2020 2030 2050
Generation
(TWh)
BAU vs IRA Generation Mix (TWh)
Wind
CSP
SPV
Nuclear
MSW
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
Coal
Biomass
14. Thoughts on Future Analysis
16
Center on Global Energy Policy | Columbia University
• IRA
▪ Recalibrate unit commitment files to see how Nuclear capacities respond to ramp rates changes, etc.
▪ Include PTC
• Run Net Zero 2035 & 2050 scenarios to deduce impact on nuclear generation capacities in both an accelerated
and moderate policy scenario
• More region-specific analysis
▪ Prospects of deducing which states without current nuclear capacities might benefit from IRA to develop newer
capacities