Scientific and Technical Partnerships in Africa: Technologies, Platforms and Partnerships in support of the African Agricultural Science Agenda, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, April 4&5, 2017

1. Challenges and Scenarios for Ending Hunger in
Africa by 2030
Technologies, Platforms and Partnerships in support of the African agricultural science agenda
Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire / April 4 and 5, 2017
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director, Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Outline
 Challenges for Food Security
 Scenarios for Food Security
• Methods
• Scenarios
• Results
 Policy Implications

3. Challenges for Food Production and Security
 Increasing population and urbanization
 Rising incomes and demand and diet changes
 Volatile food prices
 Limited land resources
 Water scarcity and quality
 Climate change

4. Evolution of Food Demand
 Rapid income growth and urbanization - effects on diets
and patterns of agricultural production
• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed
• Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock
• Intense pressure on land and water
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(282678968).jpg

5. Africa: Undernourished Children
 Northern and Southern
Africa achieved MDG of
halving prevalence of
undernourished children
 Other regions dealing with
persistent challenges;
average across Africa at
about 20%
 Despite reductions in
shares, numbers increased
from 45 million to 60 million

6. Africa: Undernourished Population
 Better progress in general
population - much steeper
declines in trends
 Improving by 0.5
percentage points per year
in the decade leading up to
2012 across most Africa
 But number increased
from 175 million to 206
million

7. IFPRI’s IMPACT Modeling System
Exploring alternative climate and investment futures
• Linked climate, water, crop and
economic models
• Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts
• High level of disaggregation
 159 countries
 154 water basins
 60 commodities
• Links to other global modeling groups
through AgMIP, and to all 15 CGIAR
centers
Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion
Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC.

8. IMPACT spatial disaggregation
Africa’s Basins

9. Baseline Scenarios
 2030 No Climate Change (NoCC)
• Population and income trends from SSP2
• Baseline scenario that includes “business-as-usual” continuation of
current trends in markets and development
• Climate held constant at 2005 levels
 2030 with Climate Change (CC)
• Same baseline assumptions as above for “business-as-usual”
• Climate follows relatively “severe” model representation (HadGEM) of
the warmest future climate scenario (RCP 8.5)

10. Africa: Projected Income Growth
 Promising outlook for economic
growth for the coming decades
based on IPCC SSP2 scenario
 Expected trends in per capita GDP
to 2030 and 2050 show strong
growth in per capita GDP in South
and East Asia
 Africa projected to have strong
growth rates comparable to Asia—
3.6 percent per capita annual
growth
Per Capita GDP (1,000 US$, constant year 2005)
2010 2030 2050
East Asia & Pacific 8.8 22.3 35.4
South Asia 2.7 7.0 13.9
Latin America & Caribbean 10.0 16.9 25.9
World 9.8 17.3 25.2
Northern Africa 6.2 12.3 22.2
Western Africa 1.7 3.9 8.6
Central Africa 1.2 2.4 5.6
Eastern Africa 1.2 2.6 6.1
Southern Africa 4.8 7.9 12.0

11. High Investment Scenario
 2030 with Climate Change and Comprehensive Investment Portfolio
(COMP) $52 billion per year above baseline investments of $43 billion per year
• Uses the CC scenario above as a reference point and overlays scenario that combines
several investments (starting in 2015) targeted at ameliorating major constraints in the
global food system.
• R&D: CGIAR system investments in agricultural R&D to increase agricultural
productivity in the developing world (specified at the crop- and region-specific level in
consultation with other CGIAR centers)
• Water and Soil: Expansion of irrigation systems and enhancing water use efficiency and
soil management (no-till, ISFM, rainwater harvesting)
• Infrastructure: Infrastructure investment in transportation and energy sectors to benefit
agricultural production and value chains

12. Estimated Incremental Cost for the Comprehensive
Investment Scenario:
Average annual additional investment required from 2015-2030 (billion USD)
Note: This scenario assumes climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, plus increased investment in developing country agriculture. Results
are conditional on investment in other developing regions.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016
Investment
Middle East and Africa
Outside
Africa
All Developing
CountriesSouth of
the Sahara
Middle East and
North Africa
Total
CGIAR R&D 0.67 0.01 0.67 0.07 0.74
Irrigation Expansion 2.76 0.83 3.59 4.34 7.93
Water Use Efficiency 0.41 0.61 1.02 9.25 10.27
Soil Management 1.76 1.28 3.04 4.19 7.23
Infrastructure 4.52 2.06 6.57 19.36 25.94
Total 10.12 4.79 14.89 37.21 52.11

13. COMP scenario crop yield improvements in Africa
and globally in 2030 (percent change from reference scenarios)
Note: Bars show global (incl. Africa) and African yield improvements. This graph is a summary figure, and all yield improvement targets were developed at the country level,
differentiated by irrigated and rainfed management, in collaboration with GFSF
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).

14. Prices in 2030 (indexed 2010=1)
by climate and investment scenario
Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-
COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).

15. Calorie availability (kcal/person/day) by 2030
by climate and investment scenario
Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus
increased investment in developing country agriculture.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).
Recommended intake
for active 20-35 year
old male
Recommended intake
for active 20-35 year
old female
Average minimum
food requirement

16. Hunger by 2030
by climate and investment scenario
(bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis)
Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus
increased investment in developing country agriculture.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).

17.  Increased agricultural investment scenario offsets climate
change impacts and achieves substantial reductions in the
share of hungry people
 Numbers of hungry people in Africa remain relatively high
due to population growth
 Rapid progress in Africa requires investments elsewhere
to reduce food prices to boost consumption in Africa
Conclusions

18. Conclusions
 Key policies to achieve to reduce hunger include increased
investment in agricultural research, enhanced on-farm
management, and higher investment in rural infrastructure
 Emphasis on crop and livestock breeding targeting abiotic
and biotic stresses
 Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage,
integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest
management, reduction of post harvest losses

19.  Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to
markets, information, credit, inputs, mobile phone towers
 Complementary investments in healthcare, education and
social safety nets can further reduce hunger
 With strong GDP growth, the agriculture sector will slowly
decline in size relative to other sectors, but remains
critically important for employment and income growth in
rural regions where majority of poor reside
Conclusions