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Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity

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Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity

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Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity

  1. 1. Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity Fantu Bachewe; Guush Berhane; and Bart Minten IFPRI The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End Hunger and Undernutrition Addis Ababa Hilton December 15, 2017 Addis Ababa 1
  2. 2. Presentation plan  Overview: role of agriculture in the overall economy  Livestock production and productivity in the last decade (Fantu)  Crop production, productivity and drivers (Guush)  Looking into the future: Ethiopia’s agriculture in the context of selected countries  CSA data is used unless otherwise mentioned
  3. 3. 3 1. Introduction • Agriculture important contributor to rapid growth during 2004-2015 o Accounted for 45% of GDP and 30.5% of growth in GDP o Crop output accounted for 31% of GDP and livestock for 10% Figure 1 — Share in GDP and average contribution to GDP growth, 2004/5-2015/16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Share in GDP (%) Agriculture Crop Livestock Industry Services Crop 24% Livestock 5% Other primary 2% Industry 16% Services 53% Average contribution to GDP growth
  4. 4. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE Trends in livestock production, productivity, and input use in Ethiopia Presenter: Fantu Bachewe 4
  5. 5. 2. Livestock production and productivity Livestock number • Livestock means of animal-sourced food (ASF) production and are end-products • Cattle largest in number & on average grew at 3.8% during 2004-2015 o Growth averaged 4.6% in sheep and 5.6% or higher in others • Livestock deaths significant and adversely affect productivity o Over 3 million cattle, sheep, & goats lost to death annually since 2005 • Deaths as % of stock declined, e.g. cattle 16%
  6. 6. Live animal marketing • Number sold for off-farm slaughter, net commercial off-take (NCOT), doubled in cattle, grew at 56% in sheep and at 131% in goats • NCOT rate (NCOT/average stock) grew in all animals except poultry Figure 2 — Net commercial off-take number (millions) and rate (%), 2005/06-2014/15 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Cattle Sheep Goat Cattle Sheep Goat NCOT (number) NCOT rate (%) 2005 2010 2014
  7. 7. Animal-sourced food (ASF) production and productivity • ASF output grew considerably o Egg output grew by 93% and milk output by 41% during 2005/06 – 2015/16 • Productivity (output per animal) stagnated Figure 3 — Annual milk and egg production and productivity, 2005/06-2015/16 0 1 2 3 4 5 2005 2010 2015 Productivity Milk (100 lts/cow/year) Egg (dozens/hen/year) 0 2 4 6 8 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Output Eggs (million dozens) Milk (billion liters)
  8. 8. 8 Figure 4 — Milk productivity (kg/cow/year), 2014 (FAOSTAT, 2017) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Nigeria Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Malawi India Indonesia China Thailand EastAfrica Africa Asia
  9. 9. Growth accounting analyses of the livestock subsector • Labor & livestock most important, accounted for ¾ of output growth • Modern inputs contributed only 11% to livestock output growth Figure 5 — Average contribution as % of livestock output growth (2004/05 – 2014/15) Labor 49% Grazing land 9% Livestock 25% Improved feed 9% RTS & rural roads 5% Other factors 2% ∆ TFP 1%
  10. 10. 3. Input use and intensification Livestock feed • Green fodder (grazing) important but the share of users declining • Lower share use improved feed but share doubled o Purchased, particularly Improved feed, increasing in importance Figure 6 — Share using feed and purchased feed, 2004-2015 4 6 8 10 12 14 95 96 97 98 99 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Improvedfeed Grazing Feed users (%) Grazing Improved feed 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Purchased feed users (%)
  11. 11. Livestock extension • Dairy, meat, & poultry extension users increased by 28%, 11%, & 37% • Share of extension users stagnant & considerably lower in livestock Figure 7 — Number and share of farmers using livestock extension, 2005 and 2014 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 Dairy Meat Poultry Number using livestock extension 2005 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2014 Share using extension Crop extension (%) Livestock extension (%)
  12. 12. Veterinary services • Share of vaccinated cattle, sheep, & goats more than doubled • Share afflicted with diseases declined in goats and grew slightly in cattle and sheep (excluding 2008 it declined in all 3) • Animals treated for diseases grew by 63% in cattle, & by over 114% in sheep & goats Figure 8 – Share of vaccinated and treated livestock, 2004-2015 0 20 40 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vaccinated (% out of stock) Cattle Sheep Goats 0 20 40 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Share of treated out of afflicted (%) Cattle Sheep Goats
  13. 13. Dairy processing and livestock breed composition • Dairy processors more than tripled & processed milk output grew 93% • Share of cross-bred cows and poultry low but grew 130% & 90% Figure 11 — Share of cross-bred cows and poultry (%), 2004-2014 0 1 2 3 4 5 2004 2010 2014 Cross-bred cows (%) Cross-bred poultry (%) Figure 10 — Number of milk processing plants and processed milk output, 2007-2015 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 10 20 30 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Monthlyprocessedmilkoutput Dairyprocessors Dairy processors (number) Monthly processed milk (million liters)
  14. 14. 4. Conclusions • Livestock contributed little to GDP & importance declined • Rapid growth in ASF output but productivity stagnant • Modern inputs contributed little to output growth • Improved feed & cross-bred livestock low but increasing in importance • Livestock extension users low and stagnant • Vaccination and treatment of sick livestock increased considerably while share afflicted with diseases overall declined • Demand and supply side factors indicate considerable potential 1. Spending on ASF as well as livestock exports grew o Further increase in spending expected with growth in income 2. Use levels of modern inputs low 3. Large and fast growing animal stocks but predominantly low-yielding breeds

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