My presentation on "temp" at the SMART project conference "Time and Sustainability: What are we missing and what do we need to do?" on 28 June 2018.

1. Fast & slow climate mitigation
Glen Peters (CICERO)
Time and Sustainability (28/06/2018, Oslo)

2. SimonBurchettwww.channelphotography.com

3. No pain, No gain

4. There are some short-term benefits of mitigation as well, reduced local air pollution, new jobs, etc
Source: Rogelj et al 2018; Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; NASA GISS
A lot of pain, not much gain
Paris pledges
Paris goal
Benefits
CO2 °C
Little gain

5. In with the new, not out with the old

6. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2018)
Explosive growth in renewables…

7. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2018)
…is (currently) a drop in the ocean

8. Despite decades of progress, virtually no signal in key aggregated indicators
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2018)
Small & fast versus big & slow
This is where we
need to go…

9. The short and long game

10. We have already emitted a lot of CO2, and thus we can only emit a little more to stay under 1.5°C or 2°C.
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
Emission pathways

11. We have already emitted a lot of CO2, and thus we can only emit a little more to stay under 1.5°C or 2°C.
The dark grey area is an approximate carbon budget of 250GtCO2 from 2017 (consistent with “well below 2°C”).
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
Emission pathways
Illustrative pathway consistent
with the Paris Agreement’s
“well below 2°C” (~1.5°C)

12. If we (deliberately) allow CO2 emissions to decline slower in the short-term, then we ‘overshoot’ the carbon budget,
and then must repay that ‘carbon debt’ by removing carbon from the atmosphere at a planetary scale.
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
Emission pathways with overshoot
Illustrative pathway consistent
with the Paris Agreement’s
“well below 2°C” (~1.5°C)

13. To reach zero emissions in 2050, we need to start planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal (negative emissions) now!
It is likely that we cannot get positive emissions to zero, thus, we will always need some level of negative emissions
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
‘Negative’ emissions
Illustrative pathway consistent
with the Paris Agreement’s
“well below 2°C” (~1.5°C)

14. Fast and slow climate mitigation

15. • Act now, benefits later
– (some earlier co-benefits: air pollution, new jobs, …)
• Rapid progress in new industries, old industries persist
• Rapid reductions now AND strong growth in CO2 removal
Fast and slow climate mitigation

16. Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
Glen Peters