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Fallacies Futures Forecasting ITARC London

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Tools for Exploring the Future, Fallacies Futures Forecasting
Seeing around corners

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Fallacies Futures Forecasting ITARC London

  1. 1. fallacies, futures & forecast seeing around corners TOOLS FOR EXPLORINGTHE FUTURE TRADECRAFTOFTRANSFORMATION gar@businessmodeladventures.com @aspiringarc
  2. 2. WARNING what follows will have permanent effects
  3. 3. BUT FIRST some cognitive recalibration
  4. 4. you have 30 MINUTES to learn 2 new superpowers
  5. 5. things are changing fast(?)
  6. 6. LOT’S OF BIG THINGS ARE HAPPENING
  7. 7. “the future is already here it’s just not evenly distributed” – William Gibson
  8. 8. Anti-Pattern 3:Prediction Predilection Our predilection for prediction and the certainty of uncertainty Based on those assumptions Of course Our Prediction Predilection
  9. 9. ASSUMPTIONS ARE…
  10. 10. NOT INFORMATION!
  11. 11. ASSUMPTIONS ARE THE ABSENSE OF INFORMATION!
  12. 12. WE SEE THINGS AS A LINEAR
  13. 13. We think we are doing this
  14. 14. SO WE NEED A NEW WAY
  15. 15. I hear you cry ‘DO WE’?
  16. 16. “denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”
  17. 17. BUT FIRST, FIRST WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT’S WRONG WITH US!
  18. 18. Dinosaurs eat BRAINS for breakfast
  19. 19. But first we need to consider our biases & us some stuff is the same
  20. 20. Hofstadter's Law Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
  21. 21. Semmelweis Reflex Semmelweis Reflex: This is a professional reflex to reject new evidence that in some way threatens established norms or firmly held beliefs.c
  22. 22. Availability Heuristic We are more likely to ascribe a higher probability to events that we actually hold in our memories.
  23. 23. Framing Effect Framing Effect says that the wording or the context in which options are presented directly impact (or frame) our selections.
  24. 24. Reactance is cognitive bias that manifests itself in a tendency to push back against reductions in perceived or real freedoms..
  25. 25. Anchoring Bias & Sacred Cows A fixation on repeatability leads to anchoring and the creation of ‘sacred cows’ strongly held beliefs
  26. 26. “To improve is to change, to be perfect is to change often” Winston Churchill
  27. 27. “The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” Daniel Kahneman
  28. 28. THE BAD NEWS IS FOR SOME IT’S ALREADY TOO LATE
  29. 29. STEP 1: BECOMING A FUTURIST
  30. 30. THE FUTURE ISN’T CERTAIN!!!
  31. 31. We struggle to understand the impact of the future and fail to see the signals that are right in front of our eyes
  32. 32. We drift into unwanted futures
  33. 33. SO WE LOVE HISTORY, BUT THE FUTURE IS ALL WE HAVE LEFT QUICK GUIDE TO BECOMING A FUTURIST
  34. 34. 1 Collect signals from the future Futurist squirrelling  Collect clues  Notice signals  Watch/listen
  35. 35. 4 Questions  What kind of change from what to what?  What’s driving the change? – what’s the future force  What will the world be like if this signal is amplified? normal//common//ubiquitous  Do we want that future?
  36. 36. 2 Combine signals into forecasts Futurist squirrelling + + +
  37. 37. what would this mean for me? 3 Create personal foresight
  38. 38. 4 Play with the future play with stories for the future
  39. 39. SMART KITCHEN FORECAST + + +
  40. 40. What the hell is going on? Why are we here?
  41. 41. `SMART BATHROOM + +
  42. 42. HEALTHCARE FUTURES FROM EHEALTH BLOCKATHON  Teleportation of medicines to crisis areas  Obstacle courses with incentives  Healthcard with points  Bank to store points  Health centre with automated scanners  Health gate with controls  Work swarming for crisis mgmt. • Magic pools with magic water • Swimming pools and recreation • Clean water • Good food (modern twist on the pig farm) • Horse farm • Solar cars & clean environment • Medicine shooting gun • Robotic medicine distribution
  43. 43. WHAT DO THEIR FORECASTS NEED
  44. 44. STEP 2: Looking around corners & Jumping into the future
  45. 45. Looking around corners & Jumping into the future Futures, Scenarios and People!
  46. 46. We struggle to think about the future in anything other than a linear 1-day after the next way
  47. 47. We drift into unwanted futures
  48. 48. Scenarios Defined  Stories built around a methodically constructed plot.  A tool for identifying strategic options in the face of long-range uncertainty.  A framework and a vocabulary for an on-going strategic conversation.
  49. 49. A tale of 2 futures
  50. 50. 1 Find the forces
  51. 51. 2 Find the extremes
  52. 52. 3 Create Scenarios
  53. 53. 4 Explore the future
  54. 54. 5 Find the themes and characteristics
  55. 55. 6 Name the futures
  56. 56. 7 Identify Responses
  57. 57. 8 Find a way to win
  58. 58. 9 Navigate the compass
  59. 59. http://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/images/M ore_Projects_Images/AltEnergy.jpg
  60. 60. “A reliable way of making people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.” Daniel Kahneman
  61. 61. gar@businessmodeladventures.com @aspiringarc http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.businessmodeladventures.com Hello, my name is Gar and I help with
  62. 62. ∆delta /ˈdɛltə/ (maths) an incremental change in a variable, as Δ or δ (transformation) a measurable change in an organisation or person agent /ˈeɪdʒənt/ a person that produces a particular effect or change a person or thing that acts or has the power to act = measure of transformation = operator, catalyst of transformationAGENT digital /ˈdɪdʒɪt(ə)l/ (tech) a signal transmission that conveys information through a series of coded pulses in 1s & 0s (business) digital business is the creation of new business designs by blurring the digital and physical worlds = digital businessDIGITAL

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