Tools for Exploring the Future, Fallacies Futures Forecasting Seeing around corners

1. fallacies, futures & forecast
seeing around corners
TOOLS FOR EXPLORINGTHE FUTURE
TRADECRAFTOFTRANSFORMATION
gar@businessmodeladventures.com
@aspiringarc

4. WARNING
what follows will have
permanent effects

5. BUT FIRST
some cognitive
recalibration

6. you have
30 MINUTES
to learn 2 new superpowers

7. things are changing fast(?)

8. LOT’S OF BIG THINGS ARE HAPPENING

9. “the future is already
here it’s just not
evenly distributed”
– William Gibson

10. Anti-Pattern 3:Prediction Predilection
Our predilection for prediction
and the certainty of uncertainty
Based on
those
assumptions
Of course
Our Prediction Predilection

11. ASSUMPTIONS ARE…

12. NOT INFORMATION!

13. ASSUMPTIONS ARE THE ABSENSE
OF INFORMATION!

14. WE SEE THINGS AS A LINEAR

15. We think we are doing this

17. SO WE NEED A NEW WAY

18. I hear you cry ‘DO WE’?

19. “denial is the most predictable
of all human emotions”

20. BUT FIRST, FIRST WE NEED TO KNOW
WHAT’S WRONG WITH US!

21. Dinosaurs eat
BRAINS
for breakfast

22. But first we need to consider our biases & us
some stuff is the same

23. Hofstadter's Law
Hofstadter's Law: It always
takes longer than you
expect, even when you
take into account
Hofstadter's Law.

24. Semmelweis Reflex
Semmelweis Reflex:
This is a professional
reflex to reject new
evidence that in some
way threatens
established norms or
firmly held beliefs.c

25. Availability Heuristic
We are more likely to
ascribe a higher
probability to events
that we actually hold
in our memories.

26. Framing Effect
Framing Effect says that
the wording or the
context in which
options are presented
directly impact (or
frame) our selections.

27. Reactance
is cognitive bias that
manifests itself in a
tendency to push
back against
reductions in
perceived or real
freedoms..

28. Anchoring Bias & Sacred Cows
A fixation on
repeatability leads to
anchoring and the
creation of ‘sacred
cows’ strongly held
beliefs

29. “To improve is to change,
to be perfect is to change
often”
Winston Churchill

30. “The idea that the
future is unpredictable
is undermined every
day by the ease with
which the past is
explained.” Daniel Kahneman

31. THE BAD NEWS IS
FOR SOME IT’S
ALREADY
TOO LATE

32. STEP 1: BECOMING A FUTURIST

33. THE FUTURE ISN’T CERTAIN!!!

35. We struggle to understand the impact
of the future and fail to see the signals
that are right in front of our eyes

36. We drift into unwanted futures

37. SO WE LOVE HISTORY, BUT THE FUTURE IS ALL WE HAVE LEFT
QUICK GUIDE TO
BECOMING A FUTURIST

38. 1 Collect signals from the future
Futurist squirrelling
 Collect clues
 Notice signals
 Watch/listen

39. 4 Questions
 What kind of change from what to what?
 What’s driving the change? – what’s the future force
 What will the world be like if this signal is amplified?
normal//common//ubiquitous
 Do we want that future?

40. 2 Combine signals into forecasts
Futurist squirrelling
+ + +

41. what would this mean for me?
3 Create personal foresight

42. 4 Play with the future
play with stories for the future

43. SMART KITCHEN FORECAST
+ + +

44. What the hell is
going on?
Why are we here?

46. `SMART BATHROOM
+ +

47. HEALTHCARE FUTURES FROM EHEALTH BLOCKATHON
 Teleportation of medicines to crisis
areas
 Obstacle courses with incentives
 Healthcard with points
 Bank to store points
 Health centre with automated
scanners
 Health gate with controls
 Work swarming for crisis mgmt.
• Magic pools with magic water
• Swimming pools and recreation
• Clean water
• Good food (modern twist on the
pig farm)
• Horse farm
• Solar cars & clean environment
• Medicine shooting gun
• Robotic medicine distribution

48. WHAT DO THEIR FORECASTS NEED

49. STEP 2: Looking around corners
& Jumping into the future

50. Looking around corners
& Jumping into the future
Futures, Scenarios and People!

51. We struggle to think about the future
in anything other than a linear 1-day
after the next way

52. We drift into unwanted futures

53. Scenarios Defined
 Stories built around a methodically constructed plot.
 A tool for identifying strategic options in the face of
long-range uncertainty.
 A framework and a vocabulary for an on-going strategic
conversation.

54. A tale of 2 futures

56. 1 Find the forces

57. 2 Find the extremes

58. 3 Create Scenarios

59. 4 Explore the future

60. 5 Find the themes and characteristics

61. 6 Name the futures

62. 7 Identify Responses

63. 8 Find a way to win

64. 9 Navigate the compass

65. http://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/images/M
ore_Projects_Images/AltEnergy.jpg

66. “A reliable way of
making people believe
in falsehoods is frequent
repetition, because
familiarity is not easily
distinguished from
truth.”
Daniel Kahneman

67. gar@businessmodeladventures.com
@aspiringarc
http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta
www.businessmodeladventures.com
Hello, my name is Gar
and I help with

68. ∆delta
/ˈdɛltə/
(maths) an incremental change in a variable, as Δ or δ
(transformation) a measurable change in an organisation or person
agent
/ˈeɪdʒənt/
a person that produces a particular effect or change
a person or thing that acts or has the power to act
= measure of transformation
= operator, catalyst of transformationAGENT
digital
/ˈdɪdʒɪt(ə)l/
(tech) a signal transmission that conveys information through a series of coded pulses in 1s & 0s
(business) digital business is the creation of new business designs by blurring the digital and physical
worlds
= digital businessDIGITAL