1. GUAR SEED PRICES COOL DOWN DUE
TO RELIEF RAINS BUT SEPTEMBER
WEATHER WILL PLAY KEY ROLE
Dated: 27th August '18
NCDEX Guarseed futures this week have traded under selling
pressure and prices have collapse by around Rs. 270 per qtl.
The production prospects of Guar seed has improved as rains
begin to improve in Western Rajasthan.
Earlier the Guar seed futures were rallying as dry weather was
taking toll on the major Guars seed growing areas. Delay in
arrivals of monsoon rainfall have pushed back sowing but it was
still completed on time as rains have improved in the first week
of July.
As of Aug 24 area covered by Guar seed in Rajasthan is
reported at 30.65 Lac Hac compared with 28.44 Lac Hac
previous year.
NCDEX Guar seed futures have been on a strong surge and
rallied by around Rs 850 per Qtl in the month of July and early
Aug in the wake of lower output amid poor rains and lower
acreage. Spot Guar seed prices have also surged up by Rs 500
per qtl to around Rs 4400 per qtl. Guar gum prices have also
shot up by around Rs 1100 to Rs 9,525 per Qtl. But the demand
of Guar seed and Guar gum remains subdued at higher prices.
Rainfall improved in Aug month and covers most of the deficit
and provided a boon to the crop. Guar seed prices dropped in
futures trade this week as investors cut down bets at higher
prices driven by subdued demand from guar gum makers put
pressure on guar seed prices in futures trade.
Speculative rally in Guar seed seems to be overdone. Prices are
expected to trade under pressure on easing demand from Guar
gum makers as the export demand is poor and soon the new
crop will be available in the market. Old crop stocks are still
comparatively larger. In Spot market, traders are refraining from
the purchase due to higher prices. Traders indulged in cutting
down their bets, which reflected a down slide in Guar seed
futures prices.
2. Weather Forecast
Dry weather is expected to prevail till 6 September in Western
and Northern Rajasthan. However restricted precipitation will
begin to evolve then after. Most of the precipitation will be
light and brief and drying will continue to be the major
concern for many locations. But still most of the Guar seed
crop is expected to finish well with the prevailing moisture.
DISTRICT WISE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION OF WEST RAJASTHAN (AS OF 26 AUG)
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