XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above $1,825 On Weaker ADP Report

1. XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above
$1,825 On Weaker ADP Report

2. Points To Be Covered Today:
• XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above $1,825 On Weaker ADP
Report.
• XAU/USD To Gain Bullish Traction On A Break Above $1834.
• Gold Really Needs To Overcome.
• Gold Finally Broke Out.
• Gold Has Now Moved Back.
• Gold Technical & Fundamental Overview.
• Gold: What's Going To Happen After The Dust Settles.

3. XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above
$1,825 On Weaker ADP Report
• Gold caught some bids during the early North American session
amid renewed USD selling bias.
• Disappointing ADP report reaffirmed dovish Fed expectations and
provided an additional boost.
• The risk-off impulse in the markets extended some additional
support to the safe-haven metal.

4. XAU/USD To Gain Bullish Traction On A Break
Above $1834
• Gold is holding steady just above the $1791.45/$1790.85 mid to late
July lows.
• Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank,
maintains a bullish bias as the yellow metal remains above the
2019-2021 uptrend line at $1752 but warrants some caution.

5. Gold Really Needs To Overcome
• “Gold really needs to overcome the $1834.16 mid-July high to
regenerate upside interest and at current levels we are relatively
neutral.”
• “The daily Elliott wave count remains negative and below $1790
will target the $1752 2019-2021 uptrend line.
• While above there we will retain our longer term upside bias,
however the lack of a sustained bounce is worrying.”

6. XAU/USD Sidelined Near-term Above $1791.45
• “Above $1834.16 lies the $1857.25 4th June low. This guards the
June high at $1916.91 and Fibo at $1921.”
• “Longer-term, we still target the $1959/65 November 2020 high and
the 2021 high. These guard the $1989/78.6% retracement and the
2072 2020 peak.”
• “The 78.6% retracement lies at $1728.90 and only below here will
target the $1677.73/$1676.80 lows seen in March.”

7. Gold Finally Broke Out
• Gold finally broke out of its intraday consolidation phase and shot to fresh weekly
tops, just above the $1,825 level during the early North American session.
• The latest leg of a sudden spike over the past hour or so could be attributed to the
emergence of some selling around the US dollar, which tends to benefit the dollar-
denominated commodity.
• The already weaker greenback lost some ground following the disappointing release
of the ADP report, which showed that private-sector employment in the US rose by
330K in July.
• This was well below consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 695K and the
previous month's downwardly revised reading of 680K.

8. Gold Finally Broke Out - I
• The data validated Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments that they were some ways
away from substantial progress on jobs.
• This, in turn, reinforced market expectations that the US central bank will wait for a longer
period before slowing its massive monetary support.
• This was seen as another factor that provided an additional boost to the non-yielding gold.
• Apart from this, the risk-off impulse in the markets further acted as a tailwind for the safe-
haven precious metal and contributed to the intraday positive move.
• Worries that the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus could derail the global
economic recovery continued weighing on investors' sentiment, which was evident from a
generally softer tone around the equity markets.

9. Gold Has Now Moved Back
• With the latest leg up, gold has now moved back above the very important
200-day SMA and within the striking distance of the double-top resistance
near the $1,832-34 supply zone.
• A sustained move beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and
set the stage for additional gains.
• That said, investors might refrain from placing any aggressive bullish bets,
rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the closely-
watched US monthly jobs report (NFP).
• This, in turn, might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for gold, at
least for the time being.

10. Technical Levels To Watch

11. XAU/USD Stays Sidelined
• “Gold stays sidelined in its broad neutral range, still capped at its
200-day average at $1820.
• A close above here and then the $1834 recent high stays needed to
reassert an upward bias and open the door to a move back to more
important resistance at $1917/66.”
• “Key in-range price support remains seen at $1755/51 a close below
which would warn of a retest of more important support at the
$1682/71 YTD low and 38.2% retracement.”

12. Gold Technical Overview

13. Gold Technical Overview - I
• With the latest leg up, gold has now moved back above the very important
200-day SMA and within the striking distance of the double-top resistance
near the $1,832-34 supply zone.
• A sustained move beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and
set the stage for additional gains.
• That said, investors might refrain from placing any aggressive bullish bets,
rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the closely-
watched US monthly jobs report (NFP).
• This, in turn, might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for gold, at
least for the time being.

14. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Gold finally broke out of its intraday consolidation phase and shot to fresh weekly
tops, just above the $1,825 level during the early North American session.
• The latest leg of a sudden spike over the past hour or so could be attributed to the
emergence of some selling around the US dollar, which tends to benefit the dollar-
denominated commodity.
• The already weaker greenback lost some ground following the disappointing release
of the ADP report, which showed that private-sector employment in the US rose by
330K in July.
• This was well below consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 695K and the
previous month's downwardly revised reading of 680K.

15. Gold Fundamental Overview - I
• The data validated Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments that they were some ways
away from substantial progress on jobs.
• This, in turn, reinforced market expectations that the US central bank will wait for a longer
period before slowing its massive monetary support.
• This was seen as another factor that provided an additional boost to the non-yielding gold.
• Apart from this, the risk-off impulse in the markets further acted as a tailwind for the safe-
haven precious metal and contributed to the intraday positive move.
• Worries that the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus could derail the global
economic recovery continued weighing on investors' sentiment, which was evident from a
generally softer tone around the equity markets.

16. Gold Fundamental Overview - II

17. Gold: What's Going To Happen After The Dust
Settles
• When the market wants to move down and gets short-term bullish signals, it
often ignores them or reacts weakly – and that’s exactly what gold is doing.
• This week’s back-and-forth movement in gold, silver, and mining stocks is
neither particularly exciting nor interesting.
• There is, however, some fundamental news that I would like to cover today.
• Nonetheless, let’s start with the charts.
• The single notable technical thing is today’s pre-market performance of gold
vs. the performance of silver.

18. Gold: What's Going To Happen After The Dust
Settles - I

19. Gold Price Today

20. XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above
$1,825 On Weaker ADP Report

21. Thanks for listening
XAU/USD Jumps To Fresh Weekly Tops, Above $1,825 On Weaker ADP
Report