The document discusses the gold price forecast and factors that may cause gold prices to fall or resume declining. It notes that gold prices staged a comeback from six-week lows due to risk-off sentiment from the Evergrande crisis but faces resistance near $1770 as Fed tapering expectations weigh. Risk sentiment has improved, lifting yields and the dollar, so gold prices will likely resume declining unless risk aversion picks up again. The Fed meeting later this week leaves gold prices at the mercy of risk sentiment and speculation about the Fed's plans.

1. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Set
To Fall?

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• Gold Price Looks To Resume
• Gold Price Staged A Solid Comeback
• Gold Price Will Likely Resume
• Gold Price Chart - Technical Outlook
• Gold Futures: Further Upside Unlikely
• Gold Fundamental Overview
• Gold's Sudden Glow In A Falling Market

3. Gold Price Looks To Resume
• Gold price looks to resume the downside
after Monday’s rebound.
• Risk tone improves amid turnaround
Tuesday, downs the USD, lifts yields.
• Gold’s daily technical setup to outweigh
Evergrande risks, pre-Fed anxiety.

4. Gold Price Staged A Solid Comeback
• Gold price staged a solid comeback from six-
week lows of $1742, as the underlying risk-off
theme triggered a flight to safety for the
ultimate safe haven.
• Tensions escalated over a potential default
story of indebted China’s Evergrande property
development group, which fuelled risks of
spillover and a global economic slowdown.

5. Gold Price Staged A Solid Comeback - I
• The broader risk aversion boosted safe-haven
flows into the US Treasury bonds while
downing the yields and global equities, which
boded well for gold price.
• The retreat in the US dollar across the board,
dragged lower by the yields also collaborated
with the recovery in the metal.

6. Gold’s Recovery Faced
• However, gold’s recovery faced stiff
resistance just below the $1770 level, as
Fed’s tapering expectations continued to
weigh on traders’ minds.
• As the Fed commences its two-day
monetary policy meeting this Tuesday,
gold price has returned to the red.

7. Gold’s Recovery Faced - I
• A minor improvement in the risk sentiment
amid stabilizing Hong Kong equities and
conciliatory comments from China Evergrande
Chief caps gold’s recovery gains.
• Meanwhile, the US Treasury yields rebound
across the curve as the Fed’s tapering plan
appears intact, despite the latest China
worries.

8. Gold Price Will Likely Resume
• In the day ahead, the risk rebound could pick
up pace, extending the rebound in the
Treasury yields while lifting the demand for
the greenback once again.
• In such a case, gold price will likely resume its
downside. The US docket remains light,
leaving gold price at the mercy of the risk
sentiment and Fed speculations.

9. Gold Price Will Likely Resume
• In such a case, gold price will likely
resume its downside.
• The US docket remains light, leaving gold
price at the mercy of the risk sentiment
and Fed speculations.

10. Gold Price Chart - Technical Outlook

11. Gold Futures: Further Upside Unlikely
• Monday’s positive price action in gold was
amidst shrinking open interest and volume,
undermining the idea of the continuation of
the rebound, at least in the very near term.
• On the upside, the $1,800 mark per ounce
troy keeps limiting occasional bullish
attempts.

12. Gold Futures: Further Upside Unlikely - I

13. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Gold price is consolidating Monday’s rebound, as
the bulls turn cautious heading into the two-day
FOMC meeting that begins later this Tuesday.
• Expectations of Fed’s tapering plan remain alive
and kicking tempering the mood around gold
investors.
• Meanwhile, easing China's Evergrande scare has
led to improvement in the risk sentiment, lifting
the US Treasury yields at gold’s expense.

14. Gold Fundamental Overview - I
• However, gold buyers continue to find support
from a broad-based US dollar retreat, thanks
to the calm market tone.
• Gold price halts its recovery mode after the
bulls ran into stiff resistance near the $1767-
$1768 region, as the six-week lows at $1742
continue to lure the sellers amid hawkish Fed’s
expectations and a data-light US docket.

15. Gold Fundamental Overview - II

16. Gold's Sudden Glow In A Falling Market
• The Dow Jones index experienced its worst drop
in 10 months on Monday, falling 600 points or
1.8%. The S&P500 index lost about the same
amount, 1.7%.
• The dollar index climbed to monthly highs,
trading above 93.0.
• Intraday, the S&P500 had fallen more than 5%
from early September peaks at one point,
interrupting a 10-month streak of gains when the
index did not experience such pullbacks.

17. Gold's Sudden Glow In A Falling Market - I
• Nonetheless, it can hardly be said that
markets have plunged into fear.
• Currency, debt, and precious metals markets
showed sudden resilience or even indifference
during yesterday's sell-off in equity markets.
• The debt and currency markets are considered
the 'smartest' and deepest, so their
detachment from yesterday's sell-off should
be considered an important signal.

18. Gold And Gold Mining Stocks
• It would not be surprising if, later in the day,
we see increased buying in stocks of strong
companies after the recent downturn.
• Buying in gold and gold mining stocks was
even more remarkable.
• The long slump in the sector was interrupted
yesterday with a jump of around 3% in the
biggest gold stocks.

19. Gold's Ability To Resist The General
Downtrend
• Gold prices added 0.5%, gaining support shortly
after falling below $1750.
• As the previous months have shown, the ironclad
support in gold prices is near the $1700 level. But
it appears that active buyers have moved into the
$1750 area.
• Gold's ability to resist the general downtrend
speaks to investor confidence that global central
bank policies will remain soft enough to avoid
triggering a global downward asset sell-off spiral.

20. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Set
To Fall?

21. THANKS FOR LISTENING
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Set To
Fall?