The document discusses gold's recent performance hitting a target of $1,800 per ounce and what may come next. It notes gold's historically strong performance due to inflation and low real interest rates. While gold struggled to capitalize recently, record-low real rates and inflation could still support gold prices going forward. However, gold prices may be impacted by conflicting sentiment around inflation, Fed policy, and economic data in the coming weeks.

1. Gold Chart Of The Week: XAU Hit The
$1,800 Target, Now What?

2. Point To Be Discussed Today:
• Gold’s Historically Strong Performance
• Gold Struggled To Capitalize
• Gold Has Record - Low Real Rates
• Gold Prices Will Likely Be Caught ln Conflicting
Sentiment
• Gold Daily Chart, Prior Analysis
• Gold, Live Market Update

3. Gold’s Historically Strong
Performance
• Gold’s historically strong performance can be
attributed to:
• higher inflation and market volatility–
supporting capital preservation motives.
• lower real interest rates – supporting both
opportunity cost and growth risk motives

4. Gold Struggled To Capitalize
• Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous
day's modest bounce, instead met with some
fresh supply on Wednesday and dropped back
closer to the $1,750 level heading into the
European session.
• This marked the second successive day of a
negative move and was sponsored by the
continuous surge in the US Treasury bond
yields, which tends to drive flows away from the
non-yielding yellow metal.

5. Gold Has Record - Low Real Rates
• Gold hasn’t benefited from record-low real
rates and high inflation in 2021.
• We believe this has to do with rosy
expectations about inflation, growth and
equities

6. Gold Has Record - Low Real Rates - l
• Record low yields might constrain bonds’
hedging potential in a risk off event.
• Offering gold an opportunity to
command some of those defensive flows,
should a shock to risk assests materialise.

7. Gold ls Firming At A Critical Level
• Gold is firming at a critical level of support on
the daily chart.
• Stagflation risks are being weighed as a driver
for gold.
• Oil prices are parabolic and supply chain
disruption supports the bullish outlook for
gold.

8. Gold Managed To Attract
• Gold managed to attract some buying on the
first day of a new week and recovered a part of
Friday's rejection slide from the 100/200-day
SMAs confluence hurdle near the $1,800
mark.
• Currently hovering around the $1,770-71
region, a mixed performance around the equity
markets was seen as a key factor that extended
some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.

9. The Return Of Stagflation
• Data released earlier this Monday showed
that Chinese economic growth decelerated
sharply during the third quarter of 2021.
• This, along with worries about a faster than
expected rise in inflation, fueled fears about
the return of stagflation and weighed on
investors' sentiment.

10. The Non-Yielding Gold.
• The supporting factor, to some extent, was
offset by the prospects for an early policy
tightening by the Fed.
• This was evident from elevated US Treasury
bond yields, which could act as a headwind for
the non-yielding gold.

11. A Modest US Dollar Uptick
• Apart from this, a modest US dollar uptick
might further collaborate towards capping gains
for the dollar-denominated commodity.
• The combination of diverging forces warrants
some caution for aggressive bullish traders and
before positioning for any further appreciating
move amid absent relevant US macro releases
on Monday.

12. The Price Of Gold
• The price of gold on Friday plummetted
following signs that the US economy may not be
declining at a rate that could spark stagflation in
2022.
• Data at the end of the week was surprisingly
strong in US Retail Sales which, coupled with
strong earnings on Wall Street, pressured the
remaining bulls on the day to cash in and step
aside. XAU/USD fell from a high of $1,796.49 to
a low of $1,764.86 on Friday

13. The Price Of Gold -l
• At the open of the week, the price is 0.14%
higher as bulls look to protect a strategic layer
of support, as illustrated below, and trades
near $1,770.
• The high of the day so far has been $1,772
and the lows were $1,764.

14. Gold Prices Will Likely Be Caught ln
Conflicting Sentiment
• The week ahead will have plenty of Federal
Reserve speakers, and the Fed’s Beige Book
could give further insight into the breadth and
depth of bottlenecks facing US industry.
• Depending on the Fed's rhetoric, gold prices will
likely be caught in conflicting sentiment with
regards to inflation, stagflation, timings for
tapering and final liftoff.

15. Gold Chart Of The Week: XAU Hit The
$1,800 Target, Now What?
• Gold bulls eye the Sep highs near $1,830 for
the weeks ahead.
• $1,770 is a key level that bulls need to
overcome this week.
• Stagflation risks should underpin the precious
metal.

16. Gold Daily Chart, Prior Analysis

17. Gold's Prior 4-Hour Analysis

18. Gold's Prior 4-Hour Analysis - l
• From a 4-hour perspective, gold bulls would
be prudent to see the price make a move in
the direction of the target to break the near
term resistance around $1,770.
• In engaging above this area, there is a higher
probability of a bullish continuation for gold
this week.

19. Gold, Live Market Update

20. Gold Chart Of The Week: XAU Hit The
$1,800 Target, Now What?

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Chart Of The Week: XAU Hit The
$1,800 Target, Now What?