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National Energy Strategy: for acompetitive and sustainableenergyKey elements of Italy’s National Energy StrategyMarch 2013
The National Energy Strategy (NES) represents the outcome of acomprehensive public consultation processMilestones Institut...
The choices of energy policy are set to reach 4 main objectives,both by 2020 and by 2050Competitive costs: Significantly r...
7 priorities have been identified with concrete objectives and specificsupport measures4▪ Sustainable development of renew...
Expected results: significant economic benefits, estimated in € 9 bn/yearon electricity and gas billsEstimated incremental...
Outperforming European 2020 environmental targetsReducing GHG emissionsMillions of tons of CO2/year1Developing renewablesS...
For the first time an absolute reduction in primary consumption is foreseen(owing to energy efficiency) a strong reduction...
The electricity sector will experience a strong drive towards a renewables-gas mix and a reduction of electricity imports ...
0501001502002503003504004505001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050426The Energy strategy significantly reduces CO2 emissions...
The potential savings in Italian energy imports are significant (and reflectpositively on security of supply)Billions of €...
The energy sector – specifically the Green economy – will represent a keydriver for investments and for economic growthEst...
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Leonardo Senni, Head of the Department of Energy , Italian Ministry of Economic Development

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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy

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Leonardo Senni, Head of the Department of Energy , Italian Ministry of Economic Development

  1. 1. National Energy Strategy: for acompetitive and sustainableenergyKey elements of Italy’s National Energy StrategyMarch 2013
  2. 2. The National Energy Strategy (NES) represents the outcome of acomprehensive public consultation processMilestones Institutions Associations/SocialPartners/Other stakeholders•16 Oct. 2012•16 Oct. - 19Dec.•20 Dec. - 13March 2013•Consultationdoc. approvedby Council ofMinisters•Publicconsultation•Finalisation ofNES•Parliament – hearings by:─ “Industry” Subcommittee,Senate─ “Industry” and“Environment”Subcommittee, Chamberof Deputies•Permanent Conference of theState, the Regions and LocalAutonomies•Regulatory Authority forElectricity and Gas•Competition Authority•CNEL (National Council forthe Economy and Labour•European Commission•International Energy Agency• Consumers• Trade Unions• Evironmental organisations• Research Centres• Economic Research Institutions• Think tanks• Confindustria• Italian Bankers’ Association• Sectoral Associations:─ Power producers─ Efficiency and thermal renewables─ Electric RES─ Power and gas grid Operators─ Traders and Industrial Consumers─ Refiners and Fuel Distributors─ Energy Producers• Private Citizens and individualcompanies (online contributions on theMinistry’s web site)• Over 100associationsmet• Over 800onlinecontributions2
  3. 3. The choices of energy policy are set to reach 4 main objectives,both by 2020 and by 2050Competitive costs: Significantly reduce the energycost gap for consumers and businesses, with a gradualalignment to European prices1Economic growth: Enhance sustainable economicgrowth through the development of the energy sector43Environmental impact: Outperform the environmentaltargets set by the ‘20-20-20 Package’ and take a lead role inthe European ‘Roadmap 2050’ decarbonisation process23Security of supply: Strengthen security of supply,especially in the gas sector, and reduce the external energydependence
  4. 4. 7 priorities have been identified with concrete objectives and specificsupport measures4▪ Sustainable development of renewable energy▪ Energy efficiencyDevelopment of a competitive gas market andSouthern European hub▪ Sustainable production of domestic hydrocarbons (E&P)▪ Development of the electricity market and infrastructure▪ Restructuring of the refining sector and of the fueldistribution network▪ Modernisation of the governance of the energy sector6543127R&D in theenergysector
  5. 5. Expected results: significant economic benefits, estimated in € 9 bn/yearon electricity and gas billsEstimated incremental costs charged onconsumers4,0-5,0TotalStrategicinfrastructures~0,4Developmentof power andgas grids~0,6Renewableheat~0,7Renewableelectricity1,5-2,511,5Energyefficiency~0,8Estimated benefits on energy bills1 The 2012 base doesn’t include non-PV renewable electricity auctioned or subject to registers assigned between 2012 and 20132 Assuming flat prices in international commoditiesSurchargesTotal ~13,5Electricitybills~2,5Gas bills ~2,1Total pricereduced~8,9Electricitybills~4,5Gas bills ~4,4ReducedpricesReducedvolumes(comparedtothebaseline)Billions of Euros per year, difference between 2020 and 2012 (base year, total costs ~70 billion)Estimated benefit~9 bn €/yearon total electricityand gas bills2020 vs. 20122(current base~70 bn)5
  6. 6. Outperforming European 2020 environmental targetsReducing GHG emissionsMillions of tons of CO2/year1Developing renewablesShare on total finalconsumption, %Energy EfficiencyPrimary EnergyConsumption, Mtoe455472575-21%-18%NationalCO2 Plan/ SEN2020TargetEU 2020target2005158167209-24%-20%SEN2020TargetEU 2020targetinertial20201 The proposed priority initiatives are consistent with the National Plan for CO2 Reduction that envisages 455 Mtons/year emissions by 202061710SEN2020TargetEU 2020target201019-20
  7. 7. For the first time an absolute reduction in primary consumption is foreseen(owing to energy efficiency) a strong reduction of dependence on fossil fuels,due to the development of renewablesDevelopment of primary energy consumption and energy mixMtoe (Eurostat conversion method), %Source: MiSE; ENEAGasOilRenewablesCoalElectricityimports2020155-16035-37%30-32%22-23%8-9%~1%201016541%37%11%9%2%Share of fossilfuels down from89% to 77%7
  8. 8. The electricity sector will experience a strong drive towards a renewables-gas mix and a reduction of electricity imports (given the expected gradualalignment of Italian wholesale prices to European levels)Development of the electricity mixTWh, %Source: MiSE; ENEACoalRenewablesGasImportsOilOther2020345-36035-40%35-38%15-16%7-10%~1%~2%201034644%16%1%3%13%22%8
  9. 9. 0501001502002503003504004505001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050426The Energy strategy significantly reduces CO2 emissions by 2020, but the2050 decarbonisation process will be a challengeSource: MiSE; ENEAPost 2020 implications• Energy efficiency: need tointensify efforts (reduceconsumption vs. 2010 by 17-26% )• Renewables: very strongpenetration (at least 60% of finalconsumption)• Strong increase of theelectrification of the energysector (double today’sconsumption)• Gas: key role in the transitionperiod (at least until 2035)• R&D: need to developcompetitive low carbontechnologies1 Applying the overall European 2050 targets to Italy without considering different starting positions2 CO2 only, doesn’t include other GHGsMt CO22Applying the Roadmap 2050 scenarios to Italy9-75%-15%374439Roadmap20501SENAbsenceof measures
  10. 10. The potential savings in Italian energy imports are significant (and reflectpositively on security of supply)Billions of €/year, estimation based on the assumption of constant import prices1 Assuming discontinuation of energy efficiency measures, discontinuation of renewables‘ incentives, natural decline of hydrocarbons production2 Primary energy, Eurostat method, vs. 2010 values 10865 4852011Potentialincreaseby 2020in absenceof measures1Potentialimport in2020 withmeasuresHydrocarbonsproductionRenewablesproductionEnergyefficiencyNetimports62-19-14Savingsof ~20 Mtoe2Increasedproductionby 15-16 Mtoe2 Increasedproductionby ~12 Mtoe2Reducing importsequivalent to ~1% ofadditional GDP(and, at current terms,sufficient to shift thebalance of trade in astructural surplus)
  11. 11. The energy sector – specifically the Green economy – will represent a keydriver for investments and for economic growthEstimated cumulative investments by 2020, billions of Euros1 Includes: Gas transmission and distributions grids; regasification terminals, pipelines and storage facilities; power generation, transmission anddistribution; hydrocarbons E&P2 Private investments, partially supported by incentives 11170-180~50%50-60~50%50-60~40%60-70~60%Green economy€ 110-130 billions,70% of total expectedinvestmentsRenewablesEnergyefficiency‘Traditional’sectors1TotalIncentives2 orregulated investmentsPrivate investment notfunded by incentivesor surcharges

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