2. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
Financial Management
of Climate-related Risks
Risk-based decision making at all levels
Assessing the potential economic and financial
impacts of disasters (short, medium and long term)
financial vulnerabilities
Fiscal management of disaster risks (potential
budgetary impacts of emergency response and
reconstruction costs / contingent liabilities)
Establishing clear rules regarding post-disaster
financial assistance / compensation (solidarity,
efficiency and accountability)
2
4. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
G20/OECD Framework (2012)
4
Risk
Assessment
• Financial exposure and
capacity
• Risk financing and transfer
• Institutional arrangements
Risk Financing
5. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
International Policy Debate
5
OECD Good Practices on Mitigating and
Financing Catastrophic Risks (2010)
G20/OECD Framework (2012)
APEC Finance Ministers Initiative (OECD
Report 2013)
GFDRR - Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery
International development banks (WB, ADB, IDB)
6. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
Policy Options for Governments
in Disaster Risk Financing
6
• Dedicated reserve fund
• Contingent credit facility
• Insurance
• Cat-linked securities / ARF
Ex ante financing
• Budget reallocation
• Debt financing / borrowing
• Taxation
• International aid
Ex post financing
7. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
CAT-linked securities
• SECURITIZATION of liabilities (not assets)
• SPONSOR
• Insurance/Reinsurance
• Corporations
• Government
• Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)
• INVESTORS
• Institutional investors
• Secondary market
7
9. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
• SINGLE v. MULTI PERIL
• TRIGGERS:
a) Indemnity based
b) Index based (e.g., industry losses)
c) Parametric (first and second generation)
d) Model
e) Hybrid
9
CAT-linked securities
10. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
Private market solutions
and institutional arrangements
10
Promoting innovative risk transfer tools
a) Linking risk transfer to risk mitigation
b) Using technology to reduce transaction costs
c) Using lending institutions as risk aggregators
d) Index-based / parametric insurance (agriculture)
e) Micro-insurance / micro-finance solutions
Establishing disaster risk (re)insurance schemes
11. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
11
Disaster (re)insurance schemes
Legal Framework
Hazards covered All, pre-selected group, single
Scope of coverage Residential property, commercial property, public
assets, infrastructures, business interruption
Role of government Role in direct compensation
Government reserve funds
Pre-specified financial assistance arrangements
Role in insurance markets
Backstop liquidity provider, reinsurer, direct insurer,
guarantor
Key features of schemes for insurance markets
Extent of compulsion Pricing
Mandatory offer, purchase,
or extension
Flat, risk-based
12. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
Regional risk pooling
The African Risk Capacity (ARC)
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance
Facility (CCRIF SPC)
The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Pilot
(PCRIP)
The Southeast Europe and Caucasus
Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (SEEC
CRIF) and Europa Re
12
13. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
13
Main objectives
ARC CCRIF PCRIP Europa Re
To assist AU Member
States in planning,
preparing and
responding to extreme
weather events and, in
particular, drought,
with a view to
protecting the food
security of vulnerable
populations.
To limit the financial
impact of earthquake,
tropical cyclone and
excess rainfall to
Caribbean
governments by
quickly providing
contingent funds
allowing public
facilities to continue
their operations.
To help participating
countries improve
their budget flexibility
and strengthen their
early response
capabilities by
ensuring rapid access
to limited funds for
swift post-disaster
emergency response
actions.
To jump-start the
development of local
catastrophe insurance
markets in Southeast
Europe by equipping
the insurance
companies with
adequate reinsurance,
know-how and
technology.
Regional risk pooling
14. BRUSSELS, 20-21 October
www.ferma.eu
FORUM 2015
Venice, Italy 4-7 October
14
Legal structure
ARC CCRIF PCRIP Europa Re
Treaty-based
organization
composed of two
entities:
• the ARC Agency and
• ARC Insurance
Company Limited,
established as a
mutual insurance
company under the
laws of Bermuda.
CCRIF SPC is currently
(since 2014) a
segregated portfolio
company (SPC)
registered in the
Cayman Islands and
supported by a
network of service
providers.
Pool of country-
specific derivative
contracts aimed at
transferring
catastrophic risks to
the international
reinsurance market
via the intermediation
of the World Bank.
Swiss-based specialty
property catastrophe
reinsurance company
owned by participating
countries.
Licensed in
Switzerland.
Regional risk pooling
16. Institute for Advanced Study IUSS Pavia
Workshop
Prof. Alberto Monti
IUSS Pavia
Institute for Advanced Study
Palazzo del Broletto
Piazza della Vittoria, 15
27100 Pavia – ITALY
Web: www.iusspavia.it
Email: alberto.monti@iusspavia.it
Editor's Notes
Based on a sample of 48 countries, our simulations indicate that natural disasters (earthquakes, tropical storms, floods, and winter storms), which can be expected once in every 250 years, can weaken sovereign ratings.
The biggest ratings impact in our sample comes from earthquakes and tropical storms: The top five catastrophes for both perils (measured in damages as share of value) could lead to downgrades of around 1.5 notches for the sovereigns affected. Floods and European winter storms are generally unlikely to, by themselves, lead to downgrades.
[One way to mitigate the economic and ratings impact of natural disasters is catastrophe insurance. We find that in the case of the five biggest earthquakes, the rating impact would be a downgrade of more than one if 50% of the damage were insured, compared with almost two notches in the case of no insurance coverage at all.]