• Central banks delivered their dovish messages last month, ensuring that rates will stay low for longer
• Although inflation could overshoot in the medium term, it is unlikely that the speed of rate hikes will accelerate by much
• Stability and quality growth will be in focus in China, boding well for the economy and markets
• We continue to favour Japan as an undervalued market with excellent prospects for the next years
• Investors are likely to repeat mistakes of the past, overpaying for growth in sectors with shrinking profits in the future
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Monthly Viewpoint from our CIO, Marco Pabst - November 2017: "As good as it gets?"
1. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 1
As good as it gets?
“People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts
can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” George Orwell
Summary
• Central banks delivered their dovish messages last month, ensuring that rates will stay low for longer
• Although inflation could overshoot in the medium term, it is unlikely that the speed of rate hikes will accelerate by much
• Stability and quality growth will be in focus in China, boding well for the economy and markets
• We continue to favour Japan as an undervalued market with excellent prospects for the next years
• Investors are likely to repeat mistakes of the past, overpaying for growth in sectors with shrinking profits in the future
Several Saudi princes and billionaires being arrested and
held behind ‘mini bars’ at the Ritz Carlton, others crashing
with a helicopter, UK politicians and US actors dropping out
of their careers like flies, the Chinese government asking for
stakes in the country’s largest internet companies while Xi
Jinping was elevated to a status last enjoyed by Mao,
German 10-year yields at half their levels seen during the
summer despite record-low unemployment and rising
wages, US stock markets with one of the longest
uninterrupted weekly and monthly advances in history,
Venezuela defaulting, realised equity volatility well below
bond and USD equivalent, US stock markets trading in the
narrowest range in history and bitcoins running from one
record to another; it clearly is not a boring environment and
it feels like we have reached the frothier stages of this bull market. Bearish investors are struggling, provided they are still in
business. Quantitative, macro, minimum volatility and share buyback strategies, all once hyped over the past years are now
underperforming all relevant benchmarks that are running full steam ahead with implied correlations across stocks at the
lowest levels since the financial crisis, favouring active over (again, once hyped) passive strategies. One hardly dares asking
if this is as good as it gets.
Exhibit 1: Performance of different asset classes in 2017
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
MSCIWorld
S&P500
Europe(Stoxx600)
Eurozone(Stoxx50)
UK(FTSE100)
Japan(Nikkei)
MSCIEmergingMarkets
Brasil
Russia
India
China(Shanghai)
HongKong
WorldFixedIncome
WorldGovernmentBonds
USTreasuries
Eurozonegovtbonds
Loans,totalreturn
USHighyield
GlobalHighyield
EMhardcurrencydebt
Eurozonecorpbonds
Dollarindex
Euro
PoundSterling
JapaneseYen
ChineseRMB
IndianRupee
Globalcommodities
Energy
Preciousmetals
Agriculturalcommods
EquityREITS
NewYorkhomes
Londonhomes
Germanhomes
Beijinghomes
Globalhedgefunds
2. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 2
October was a strong month for Global equities, performance-wise led by a market we do not usually find amongst the top
Global performers: Japan. Thus, the Nikkei gained more than 8% last month, supported by a stronger reflationary
environment, improving domestic and international growth and, last but not least, Abe’s election victory.
Equity strength was widespread, driven by apparent progress with the US tax reform, generally strong economic reports and a
solid quarterly reporting season. Thus, the Senate passed a budget for the fiscal year beginning 1 October, which will lead to
the start of a ‘budget reconciliation’ process pertaining to the tax reform which will only require simple majority votes in each
house. This means the tax package is still on track to be transferred into legislation by Q1 of next year. As the current
proposal stands, it does not appear to be a big tax reform in any major way and one could rightly argue that the market has by
now priced in the current proposal. Whilst positive, it falls short of a more progressive major overhaul. This implies a potential
risk to markets as the revived Trumponomics trade could come to an end fairly quickly.
Bond markets did not do much over the last weeks, sitting between a rock and a hard place, whereas the best outcome might
be a slow taper á la euro zone whereas the Fed is already in the middle of its rate hike cycle. This limits upside in bond
markets from spread tightening and is likely to result in more coupon-like returns going forward.
US GDP growth for the third quarter came in better than expected at 3% (estimate 2.6%). Investment spending appears to be
gaining some momentum across the board, growing at 4.5%, which is an improvement over more recent quarters but below a
typical growth rate during an average recovery.
Exhibit 2: The lowest number of countries in a recession in more than 30 years (note the time scale is incorrect)
Source(s): Deutsche Bank
The pickup in GDP growth is reflected in PMI indices across developed and major emerging markets all pointing in the same
direction for the first time in many years. This re-synchronised global economic cycle is likely to lead to somewhat accelerating
inflation and upside pressure to commodity prices and, by and large, more hawkishly-leaning central banks in the future. This
is not the case yet but might well become a topic in 2018.
Several leading indicators are pointing towards rising headline and core inflation over the coming quarters. This could
potentially lead to a more hawkish language across the major central banks and a return of a rate scare in risk markets.
3. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 3
Exhibit 3: US CPI core inflation and M2 velocity of money
Source(s): WSJ
The ECB was the first of the large three central banks to come out presenting its roadmap to quantitative tapering (QT). If
Mario Draghi delivered any surprise, it was that the ECB appears more dovish than expected and certainly more dovish than
warranted, considering the strength of the European economy. Considering that growth, inflation and productivity growth in
the euro zone are very similar to what we find in the US, it seems odd that the US policy rate is at 1.25% and the European
equivalent at a negative 40bps.
Exhibit 4: Comparison of US and Euro zone labour productivity and CPI inflation
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
As such, the market’s reaction was justified when the euro dropped by two points from 1.183 to 1.163 and sovereign bond
yields across the euro zone retreated again. If nothing else changes, even if the ECB stops acquiring net new bonds by the
4. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 4
end of next year, the effect of reinvesting principal (the stock effect) will still have a material impact on yield levels for many
years to come.
In the face of relatively strong, almost goldilock-like data, it appears odd that the ECB seems to be in no hurry to tighten policy
at all. As expected, monthly net purchases will be reduced from EUR60bn to EUR30bn as of January until the end of
September of next year. The ECB left the door open to extend or even increase asset purchases if and when required.
Moreover, the ECB will continue to reinvest maturing securities well beyond the end of its net asset purchases, which means
that any form of outright tightening in Europe will be far into the future unless inflation moves substantially higher. Markets are
not expecting the first rate hike in the euro zone until the summer of 2019!
Clearly, this puts the ECB in a particularly interesting spot as the World economy is likely to be much closer to the next
recession by then and European central bankers will have no ammunition at all to ease monetary conditions. The great
monetary experiment will then reach a whole new level where we might see the whole European yield curve below zero.
Returning to more conventional central banks, the Bank of England’s policy decision on the 2nd of November was in-line with
expectations when Mark Carney announced a 25bps increase, the first since 2007 and reversing the Brexit-related cut last
year. Overall, though, the message was rather dovish (“All members agree that any future increases in Bank Rate would be
expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.”) and markets are now expecting the next hike only in August of next
year. The BoE outlined that the potential growth rate has dropped due to weak productivity growth. Although Carney believes
that households are well prepared for higher rates, the UK consumer is certainly in a fairly stretched position at present as
household debt is increasing and real wages are falling. Because of that we believe it is very unlikely that the UK will go
through a whole new rate cycle, also considering the disastrous state of Brexit negotiations.
The BoE is in a tricky spot. If it continues to hike in order to stem incoming inflation it would tip the UK housing market into a
downturn. If the BoE does not hike, the GBP will come under pressure, inflation will rise further, putting more pressure on a
weak UK consumer as real wages would fall faster. The best outcome to hope for would be a stabilisation in the GBP and
much better visibility on Brexit, returning confidence in the UK economy, a recovering London housing market and rising real
wages. Under such a scenario, a temporary inflationary overshoot can and will be accepted and would put consumers on a
sounder footing.
The Fed’s November meeting delivered no news; the Fed Funds rate stayed at 1.25% and is still widely expected to be
increased by 25bps in December in what is likely to be Janet Yellen’s last rate hike as Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors.
In an almost surprising move for the POTUS, Donald Trump’s choice of Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair came as no surprise
to markets at all as he was well flagged in advance. Powell is a safe choice too, as he appears to be a steady hand who, in
contrast to Kevin Warsh and John Taylor, does not believe that the Fed needs to get ahead of the curve by raising interest
rates more quickly. Surely, Trump who reportedly owes USD315m to various lenders across the World does not exactly have
a strong incentive to help tighten interest rates too fast.
Exhibit 5: Fed tightening and recessions (lhs) and ‘accidents’ at the end of previous rate cycles
Source(s): Deutsche Bank, BofAML
5. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 5
A slower path of rate hikes would also somewhat postpone the day of reckoning for stock markets. Although a tightening
central bank usually does not cause a recession per se, it typically raises interest rates until some accident happens in an
economy. The chart above highlights some of the previous crises that were partly caused by a tightening monetary regime.
Markets are currently indicating to the Fed that they expect the central bank to cut rates in the future. This can be seen in the
yield curve which has been increasingly flattening over the last weeks. It appears that the market is pricing in no inflation and
an expectation that the Fed is done because, otherwise, the yield curve would at some point invert, a very reliable indicator for
an incoming recession. Alternatively, should inflation actually come through over the next quarters, the Fed’s projected rate
hike path would still be intact and bond markets would have to rethink their positioning at the longer end. This could lead to
quickly rising yields in the market.
Away from financial markets, in China, Xi Jinping’s elevation in status during the 19th
National Congress of the Chinese
Communist Party is an important political event that will have critical implications in the longer term. His “thought on socialism
with Chinese characteristics for a new era” is now included in the constitution of the party, making him the second leader after
Mao Zedong to be honoured in such a way. His new ambition of a ‘Beautiful China’ succeeds his previous ‘China Dream’ and
focuses on the quality of growth rather than the quantity. It is a logical next step in the country’s economic evolution and will
entail more emphasis on the environment, services and consumption over capital formation and infrastructure stimulus, i.e. a
continuation of the rebalancing of the Chinese economy.
As it pertains to the reform process, supply-side reform (industry consolidation, creation of national champions and
deleveraging) and the ambitious OBOR programme (One belt, one road) will take centre stage over the next years. Together
with a Communist Party that has re-asserted its power under Xi Jinping (not only by sheer force but also by re-gaining
credibility) over the recent years and the ongoing de-risking of the financial sector, I believe that the risks emanating from
China are vastly overstated in Western eyes. Continuity is likely to be the name of the game with some observers estimating
that Xi might stay in power until 2027. This could bode well for local equity and bond markets which, despite good
performance this year, are not very expensive yet in absolute and relative terms.
Further east in Japan, performance has been stellar so far this year. The Nikkei 225 delivered a 17% total return until the end
of October, while the growth-stock oriented JASDAQ index is up 44%. The broader Topix index is up 22% since December
and +130% since the beginning of 2010.
Exhibit 6: Topix performance and key valuation parameters
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
This performance is justified as valuations in Japan have been consistently below those of most other markets whilst the
country is enjoying the fastest increase in earnings of any major market. In the last quarter, profits for Japanese companies
rose by more than 30% while over the previous six months they are up almost 40%.
6. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 6
From a fundamental perspective, Japanese earnings have proven to be more resilient on the downside than those in other
countries that were more affected by the 2015/16 slump in oil prices or the Chinese slowdown. In addition, they are now
accelerating even faster, with consensus expecting an almost 20% profit growth in the financial year ending in March 2018.
Exhibit 7: Blended 12-month forward earnings growth expectations for major indices
Source(s): ACPI
Japan has historically been a major beneficiary of a pickup in Global trade, which is what is driving this current move to a
large extent. What has also helped is a shift towards higher quality growth as the share of non-manufacturing profits has
increased substantially over the years, outpacing manufacturing earnings and leading to higher overall profit margins.
Exhibit 8: Profit margins for Japanese corporations (excluding the financial sector) since 1959 (lhs) and corporate
profits in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors (rhs)
Source(s): Ministry of Finance Japan, CLSA
As a result, GDP growth is slowly picking up. Annualised quarterly real GDP growth reached 2.5% in the second quarter with
real private consumption rising by 3.4%. Loan growth in the country has also turned the corner and is currently rising at ~3%
year-on-year.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan
15
Feb
15
Mar
15
Apr
15
May
15
Jun
15
Jul
15
Aug
15
Sep
15
Oct
15
Nov
15
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Apr
16
May
16
Jun
16
Jul
16
Aug
16
Sep
16
Oct
16
Nov
16
Dec
16
Jan
17
Feb
17
Mar
17
Apr
17
May
17
Jun
17
Jul
17
Aug
17
Sep
17
Oct
17
Nov
17
Japan
Eurostoxx
Hong Kong
Shanghai
US
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
1959Jul.~Sep.
1961Apr.~Jun.
1963Jan.~Mar.
1964Oct.~Dec.
1966Jul.~Sep.
1968Apr.~Jun.
1970Jan.~Mar.
1971Oct.~Dec.
1973Jul.~Sep.
1975Apr.~Jun.
1977Jan.~Mar.
1978Oct.~Dec.
1980Jul.~Sep.
1982Apr.~Jun.
1984Jan.~Mar.
1985Oct.~Dec.
1987Jul.~Sep.
1989Apr.~Jun.
1991Jan.~Mar.
1992Oct.~Dec.
1994Jul.~Sep.
1996Apr.~Jun.
1998Jan.~Mar.
1999Oct.~Dec.
2001Jul.~Sep.
2003Apr.~Jun.
2005Jan.~Mar.
2006Oct.~Dec.
2008Jul.~Sep.
2010Apr.~Jun.
2012Jan.~Mar.
2013Oct.~Dec.
2015Jul.~Sep.
2017Apr.~Jun.
7. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 7
Inflation is still elusive despite a lavish central bank and a closed output gap. Core inflation ex fresh food and energy rose to
merely 0.2% in August, still a far cry from the unrealistic 2% inflation target adopted by Haruhiko Kuroda. However, there is
also a case to be made that the official CPI figures are vastly understating actual inflation in the real world. This is largely
supported by the fact that inflation household surveys are mostly completed by civil servants and retirees that have a different
consumption pattern from the rest of the population. Furthermore, food-related inflation has been quite meaningful in the
country over the past years.
Undoubtedly, Japan is increasingly leaving its multi-decade debt-deflation induced post-crisis period behind. Some
deflationary tendencies are still present but many other aspects are improving substantially.
Exhibit 9: Unemployment rate in Japan (lhs) and job offers to applicants ratios (rhs)
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg, CLSA
Most importantly, the labour market has been tightening for some time. Japan’s unemployment rate reached 2.8% in
September, the lowest level since the mid-nineties. The job offers-to-applicants ratio has been trending higher since 2010
reflecting an increasing difficulty to fill vacant positions. Female labour participation has been rising by three percentage points
since 2010 as a result.
Exhibit 10: Wage growth in Japan since 2005
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
8. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 8
These developments should lead to faster rising wages in the future. Thus, earnings growth for regular employees hit 2.7%
last month and is set to rise further. In the past, trade unions have been focusing on keeping jobs for permanent staff and,
therefore, compromised in terms of wage increases. Following his re-election, Abe has already stated that he would like to
see wages for permanent workers rise by at least three percent in the next round of wage negotiations in spring.
Over the past years, returns on equity and payout ratios have normalised towards levels of 8% and 30%, respectively,
following a focus on these measures that were suggested by Prof Kunio Ito back in 2014. Share buybacks this year are down
compared to last year but still substantial compared to previous decades.
It has been our view for several years that the inflection point at which a deep-value market meets catalysts that help unlock
this value is highly attractive from an investor perspective. Japan is right in the middle of this process.
The country’s stock market is the only remaining haven amongst developed markets for deep value investors. The equivalent
of approximately 70% of GDP, or USD3.5trn, sits as cash or near-cash on corporate balance sheets. Some of it was used in
the past for stepped-up share buybacks and some for M&A but the amounts are still vast and continue to grow. This draws
political pressure to spend this money on investments and wages, which is a position that was not only voiced by Yuriko
Koike’s Party of Hope but was subsequently also taken up by the LDP. There is not much politics can do at this point to nudge
corporations further towards more distributions of their cash other than introducing a tax on retained earnings or the issuance
of guidelines similar to those mentioned above. Supposedly, the latter may work better in Japan, which means share buyback
programmes and rising wages are here to stay and we may see more corporate activity in terms of domestic and foreign
takeovers.
Exhibit 11: Net debt to equity position of Japanese companies (lhs) and percentage of stocks trading below book
value (rhs)
Source(s): CLSA
As a result of a continuous deleveraging over the past decades, balance sheets are strong and net-debt-to-equity ratios are
close to 40%. Almost 40% of listed companies in Japan are trading below book value, the highest such value across all
markets.
The undervaluation becomes even more apparent when one analyses individual companies. There are about 20 listed
companies where the value of their land holdings is at or above their market capitalisations. There is a similar number of
companies where the value of their equity holdings is equal or larger than their market cap. There are countless companies
trading at negligible enterprise values when properly adjusted for security portfolios that are not part of the core business.
In addition, there are hundreds of companies that are listed subsidiaries of larger businesses where only a relatively small
percentage of stock is free-floating, often leading to extreme deep-value situations. Encouraged by politics, parent companies
are now increasingly buying out minority shareholders at sometimes hefty premiums.
9. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 9
The stellar performance of Japan is also an expression of increasing exuberance in global equity markets that continue to
press higher as multiples keep expanding while yields are slowly rising. The air is clearly getting thinner although it appears to
be too early to call a top in any market yet.
Exhibit 12: Markets are close to having their least volatile year ever
Source(s): Bespoke
Low trading ranges causing record-low volatility across asset classes are a recurring feature in markets at the moment. As a
result of that, 2017 is the first year in many decades where, so far, US equity markets closed in positive territory every single
month.
Exhibit 13: Monthly heat map of the S&P500 total return index
Source(s): Bloomberg
Levels of bullishness in terms of investor positioning and sentiment are high and extended but, from a technical perspective,
the uptrend is intact and relatively well supported despite market breadth somewhat declining as of late. Whilst this is not an
immediate warning signal, it is an important situation to watch.
10. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 10
Exhibit 14: Market breadth for the S&P500
Source(s): Bloomberg, ACPI
Performance concentration in a very limited number of stocks is not a new phenomenon and usually occurs closer to the end
of extended bull runs. The FANGs or FAANGs and BATs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, Baidu, Alibaba and
Tencent) are now household names, representing a small number of companies that promise superior growth prospects. The
recent introduction of FANG futures by the New York Stock Exchange is an event that would make us rather cautious about
the prospective returns from these stocks.
Whilst wildly popular, fundamentals of these large-cap growth stocks are struggling to catch up to stock prices. They are in
favour because they are large and liquid and offer some growth prospects that are otherwise hard to come by. As a result,
there is a risk that investors are, again, overpaying for growth.
Exhibit 15: FAANG stocks’ 2018 earnings per share revisions and share price performance as of the end of October
2017 (in percent, lhs) and composition of Amazon’s quarterly profits
Source(s): ACPI, Business Insider
Additionally, they may look at these businesses in the wrong way. Amazon is only profitable at the moment because of its
cloud business AWS. Without it, the company would be loss-making. Furthermore, earnings estimates have continuously
17.2
-47.0
16.8
5.9
14.3
38.2
34.2
41.0
26.0
39.6
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Facebook Amazon Apple Google Netflix
GAAP Earnings Stock price
11. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 11
been revised downwards this year for the company. Under normal circumstances, any stock experiencing such downgrades
(almost 50% year-to-date for 2018 expected earnings) would get hammered by the market. Not so Amazon that rose by a
third so far this year. The fact that Facebook and Google are essentially advertising/media businesses will only occur to
investors during the next downturn when media spending is being reduced by their clients. The long-term sustainability of a
business model such as Netflix is also somewhat questionable to us, as the company can only continue to attract subscribers
for as long as they produce expensive content, currently spending approximately USD8bn a year. The resulting massive
negative free cash flow is currently funded by unchallenging credit markets. However, if investors will one day be asking for
real profits, the company’s model may reverse into a vicious circle of spending cuts and subscriber losses.
It appears that Tesla will be the first of these disruptors becoming a victim of closer investor scrutiny. Their large-scale
production and quality issues lay bare their inability and inexperience to scale a relatively small business towards an industrial
scale in one of the most competitive industries in the World. A huge line-up of competitors’ models over the next two years
that offer better quality and price for the same performance will put additional pressure on the company.
Whilst disruptors appear to excite investors as they are offering growth opportunities, many are missing the point that growth
is meaningless if no profit can be achieved. Many industries are currently being disrupted by new technologies and services
but in all cases, prices for the consumer will go down.
Profitable businesses and industries are being attacked because a profit pool is available for the taking; from high traditional
taxi fares, expensive hotels to bank fees and investment products or retail businesses. The result of disruption, however, is
not that the disruptor will get to own the profit stream of the disrupted. The disruptor captures a fraction of that profit but
permanently destroys the profit pool of a particular industry for all participants. Amazon’s low profitability in its core business is
a good example whereby it damages the retail industry as a whole but is not able to turn a sufficient profit for itself.
I would therefore be doubtful that most disruptors will be interesting investments for the longer term as they themselves will be
vulnerable targets at some point in the future. From the perspective of an economy, the most important outcome is that this
process puts pressure on prices, which keeps a lid on inflation and is, therefore, beneficial for the consumer.
12. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 12
Global economic monitor
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Trend
Citi Economic Surprise US -38.2 -72.6 -43.1 -23.1 -7.9 40.2
Citi Economic Surprise G10 2.0 -20.5 -11.1 3.5 19.2 39.3
Citi Economic Surprise Europe 40.6 30.3 19.1 28.0 50.2 59.0
Citi Economic Surprise EM 7.4 12.5 16.3 16.3 15.0 23.5
Citi Economic Surprise UK -15.1 -15.8 -39.8 -27.6 -2.6 5.7
ISM manufacturing 54.9 57.8 56.3 58.8 60.8 58.7
ISM new orders 58.6 62 57.75 58.7 63.8 63.1
Global manufacturing PMI 53.8 53.7 53.6 54.0 54.0
China manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.7 51.4 51.7 52.4 51.6
Japan manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.4 52.1 52.2 52.9 52.8
US durable goods orders 0.0 6.4 -6.8 2.1 2.0
US initial jobless claims 255 250 241 236 258 229
US Industrial production 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.3
Euro Industrial production 1.3 -0.6 0.3 1.4
Japan Industrial production -3.6 2.2 -0.8 2.0 -1.1
US retail sales 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 1.6
Euro retail sales 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.5
Japan retail sales 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.2
China retail sales 10.7 11.0 10.4 10.1 10.3
US consumer confidence 117.6 117.3 120.0 120.4 120.6 125.9
Euro consumer confidence -3.3 -1.3 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0
ifo German business expectations 106.5 106.7 107.3 107.8 107.5 109.1
China export trade 7.9 10.8 6.5 5.1 8.1
South Korea export trade 13.3 13.6 19.5 17.4 35.0 7.1
German export trade 8.7 5.8 8.0 7.4
China monthly money supply 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 9.2
US personal income 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4
13. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 13
The Global PMI heatmap
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg
Country/RegionCategory/SectorOct-2017Sep-2017Aug-2017Jul-2017Jun-2017May-2017Apr-2017Mar-2017Feb-2017Jan-2017Dec-2016Nov-2016Oct-2016Sep-2016Aug-2016Jul-2016Jun-2016May-2016Apr-2016Mar-2016Feb-2016Jan-2016Dec-2015Nov-2015Oct-2015
AustriaManufacturing59.459.461.160.060.758.058.156.857.257.356.355.453.953.552.153.454.552.052.052.851.951.250.651.453.0
BrazilComposite49.551.149.649.448.550.450.448.746.644.745.245.344.946.144.446.442.338.339.040.839.045.143.944.542.7
BrazilManufacturing51.250.950.950.050.552.050.149.646.944.045.246.246.346.045.746.043.241.642.646.044.547.445.643.844.1
BrazilServices48.850.749.048.847.449.250.347.746.445.145.144.443.945.342.745.641.437.337.438.636.944.443.545.543.0
CanadaManufacturing54.355.054.655.554.755.155.955.554.753.551.851.551.150.351.151.951.852.152.251.549.449.347.548.648.0
ChinaComposite51.051.452.451.951.151.551.252.152.652.253.552.952.951.451.851.950.350.550.851.349.450.149.450.549.9
ChinaManufacturing51.051.051.651.150.449.650.351.251.751.051.950.951.250.150.050.648.649.249.449.748.048.448.248.648.3
ChinaServices51.250.652.751.551.652.851.552.252.653.153.453.152.452.052.151.752.751.251.852.251.252.450.251.252.0
CzechRepublicManufacturing58.556.654.955.356.456.457.557.557.655.753.852.253.352.050.149.351.853.353.654.355.556.955.654.254.0
DevelopedMarketsManufacturing55.254.654.254.053.954.154.153.954.154.253.853.052.651.551.251.551.250.450.550.950.852.152.052.352.5
DevelopedMarketsServices54.954.654.854.554.554.254.254.153.754.553.954.053.651.851.551.451.652.052.351.751.253.353.954.854.2
DevelopedMarketsComposite55.054.654.754.454.554.354.454.254.154.654.154.053.752.051.851.651.551.551.951.751.253.253.754.654.0
EgyptWholeEconomy48.447.448.948.647.247.347.445.946.743.342.841.842.046.347.048.947.547.646.944.548.148.048.245.047.2
EmergingMarketsComposite51.551.952.151.551.552.352.052.552.151.951.951.551.851.251.351.550.049.549.950.549.050.149.550.349.7
EmergingMarketsManufacturing51.251.451.750.950.850.650.951.651.350.851.150.851.050.350.150.349.349.549.550.248.949.449.049.248.9
EmergingMarketsServices51.651.551.851.251.652.852.152.351.952.151.650.951.151.151.251.450.749.149.850.048.950.849.550.250.4
EuropeanUnionComposite56.056.155.355.355.856.356.756.155.654.654.954.153.652.953.051.953.053.152.853.353.054.054.554.554.2
EuropeanUnionManufacturing58.157.757.156.256.856.856.755.955.355.254.953.553.452.951.851.452.851.451.451.751.452.452.952.852.6
EuropeanUnionServices55.155.354.455.055.055.756.355.755.053.954.454.153.352.352.851.552.753.452.953.353.254.154.554.654.3
EurozoneComposite56.056.755.755.756.356.856.856.456.054.454.453.953.352.652.953.253.153.153.053.153.053.654.354.253.9
EurozoneManufacturing58.558.157.456.657.457.056.756.255.455.254.953.753.552.651.752.052.851.551.751.651.252.353.252.852.3
EurozoneRetail51.152.350.851.053.252.052.749.549.950.150.448.648.649.651.048.948.550.647.949.250.148.949.048.551.3
EurozoneServices55.055.854.755.455.456.356.456.055.553.753.753.852.852.252.852.952.853.353.153.153.353.654.254.254.1
EurozoneConstruction52.952.753.553.153.253.252.553.552.250.752.351.449.449.148.648.346.548.447.549.051.350.349.448.747.8
FranceComposite57.457.155.255.656.656.956.656.855.954.153.151.451.652.751.950.149.650.950.250.049.350.250.151.052.6
FranceManufacturing56.156.155.854.954.853.855.153.352.253.653.551.751.849.748.348.648.348.448.049.650.250.051.450.650.6
FranceRetail51.553.350.454.156.353.351.849.451.753.150.447.347.549.153.051.651.050.648.245.548.148.946.647.851.9
FranceServices57.357.054.956.056.957.256.757.556.454.152.951.651.453.352.350.549.951.650.649.949.250.349.851.052.7
FranceConstruction52.752.553.752.352.353.552.753.251.550.150.650.347.547.845.344.842.343.841.642.744.643.042.244.843.8
GermanyComposite56.657.755.854.756.457.456.757.156.154.855.255.055.152.853.355.354.454.553.654.054.154.555.555.254.2
GermanyManufacturing60.660.659.358.159.659.558.258.356.856.455.654.355.054.353.653.854.552.151.850.750.552.353.252.952.1
GermanyRetail51.252.853.050.754.555.056.252.551.250.352.049.651.053.054.152.051.654.051.054.152.549.550.549.652.4
GermanyServices54.755.653.553.154.055.455.455.654.453.454.355.154.250.951.754.453.755.254.555.155.355.056.055.654.5
GermanyConstruction53.353.454.955.855.155.354.656.454.152.054.953.952.952.451.651.650.452.753.455.859.657.955.552.551.8
GreeceManufacturing52.152.852.250.550.549.648.246.747.746.649.348.348.649.250.448.750.448.449.749.048.450.050.248.147.3
HongKongWholeEconomy50.351.249.751.351.150.551.149.949.649.950.349.548.249.349.047.245.447.245.345.546.446.146.446.646.6
IndiaComposite51.351.149.046.052.752.551.352.350.749.447.649.155.452.454.652.451.150.952.854.351.253.351.650.252.6
IndiaManufacturing50.351.251.247.950.951.652.552.550.750.449.652.354.452.152.651.851.750.750.552.451.151.149.150.350.7
IndiaServices51.750.747.545.953.152.250.251.550.348.746.846.754.552.054.751.950.351.053.754.351.454.353.650.153.2
IndonesiaManufacturing50.150.450.748.649.550.651.250.549.350.449.049.748.750.950.448.451.950.650.950.648.748.947.846.947.8
IrelandComposite56.057.658.257.058.058.758.756.957.859.358.455.554.054.856.956.559.259.158.160.759.561.159.260.257.7
IrelandManufacturing54.455.456.154.656.055.955.053.653.855.555.753.752.151.351.750.253.051.552.654.952.954.354.253.353.6
IrelandServices57.558.758.458.357.659.561.159.160.661.059.156.054.656.259.759.561.261.759.862.862.164.061.863.660.1
IrelandConstruction#N/A56.555.156.658.263.661.360.857.955.758.959.862.358.758.461.059.755.956.462.368.863.658.655.556.3
ItalyComposite53.954.355.856.254.555.256.854.254.852.852.953.451.151.151.952.252.650.853.152.453.753.856.054.353.9
ItalyManufacturing57.856.356.355.155.255.156.255.755.053.053.252.250.951.049.851.253.552.453.953.552.253.255.654.954.1
ItalyRetail50.350.248.047.347.145.548.345.145.545.647.948.846.545.043.240.340.245.242.646.649.447.950.247.748.8
ItalyServices52.153.255.156.353.655.156.252.954.152.452.353.351.050.752.352.051.949.852.151.253.853.655.353.453.4
ItalyConstruction52.351.751.249.951.049.048.649.049.949.250.248.545.945.147.746.944.947.245.345.846.147.248.647.346.4
JapanComposite53.451.751.951.852.953.452.652.952.252.352.852.051.348.949.850.149.049.248.949.951.052.652.252.352.3
JapanManufacturing52.852.952.252.152.453.152.752.453.352.752.451.351.450.449.549.348.147.748.249.150.152.352.652.652.4
JapanServices53.451.051.652.053.353.052.252.951.351.952.351.850.548.249.650.449.450.449.350.051.252.451.551.652.2
LebanonWholeEconomy45.846.046.346.346.146.647.546.947.747.747.046.943.845.145.045.544.444.844.145.047.449.147.946.947.1
MexicoManufacturing49.252.852.251.252.351.250.751.550.650.850.251.151.851.950.950.651.153.652.453.253.152.252.453.053.0
NetherlandsManufacturing60.460.059.758.958.657.657.857.858.356.557.357.055.753.453.553.252.052.752.653.651.752.453.453.553.7
PolandManufacturing53.453.752.552.353.152.754.153.554.254.854.351.950.252.251.550.351.852.151.053.852.850.952.152.152.2
RussiaComposite53.254.854.253.454.856.055.356.355.458.356.655.853.753.152.953.553.551.251.350.850.648.447.850.549.0
RussiaManufacturing51.151.951.652.750.352.450.852.452.554.753.753.652.451.150.849.551.549.648.048.349.349.848.750.150.2
SaudiArabiaWholeEconomy55.655.555.855.754.355.356.556.457.056.755.555.053.255.356.656.054.454.854.254.554.453.954.456.355.7
SouthAfricaWholeEconomy49.648.549.850.149.050.250.350.750.551.351.650.850.550.749.849.949.650.247.947.049.149.649.149.647.5
SouthKoreaManufacturing50.250.649.949.150.149.249.448.449.249.049.448.048.047.648.650.150.550.150.049.548.749.550.749.149.1
SpainComposite55.156.455.356.757.757.257.356.857.054.755.555.254.454.154.853.755.754.855.255.154.555.355.256.255.0
SpainManufacturing55.854.352.454.054.755.454.553.954.855.655.354.553.352.351.051.052.251.853.553.454.155.453.053.151.3
SpainServices54.656.756.057.658.357.357.857.457.754.255.055.154.654.756.054.156.055.455.155.354.154.655.156.755.9
TaiwanManufacturing53.654.254.353.653.353.154.456.254.555.656.254.752.752.251.851.050.548.549.751.149.450.651.749.547.8
TurkeyManufacturing52.853.555.353.654.753.551.752.349.748.747.748.849.848.347.047.647.449.448.949.250.350.952.250.949.5
UnitedArabEmiratesWholeEconomy55.955.157.356.055.854.356.156.256.055.355.054.253.354.154.755.353.454.052.854.553.152.753.354.554.0
UnitedKingdomComposite55.854.154.054.153.854.356.254.953.755.256.655.254.753.953.447.552.653.252.053.752.755.755.155.755.2
UnitedKingdomManufacturing56.356.056.855.354.256.457.054.354.655.455.853.454.055.653.148.553.150.549.651.350.952.251.252.454.4
UnitedKingdomServices55.653.653.253.853.453.855.855.053.354.556.255.254.552.652.947.452.353.552.353.752.755.655.555.954.9
UnitedKingdomConstruction50.848.151.151.954.856.053.152.252.552.254.252.852.652.349.245.946.051.252.054.254.255.057.855.358.8
UnitedStatesManufacturing54.653.152.853.352.052.752.853.354.255.054.354.153.451.552.052.951.350.750.851.551.352.451.252.854.1
UnitedStatesServices55.355.356.054.754.253.653.152.853.855.653.954.654.852.351.051.451.451.352.851.349.753.254.356.154.8
UnitedStatesComposite55.254.855.354.653.953.653.253.054.155.854.154.954.952.351.551.851.250.952.451.350.053.254.055.955.0
VietnamManufacturing51.653.351.851.752.551.654.154.654.251.952.454.051.752.952.251.952.652.752.350.750.351.551.349.450.1
WorldComposite54.053.954.053.653.753.853.753.853.653.853.553.353.251.851.751.651.151.051.451.350.652.352.553.352.8
WorldManufacturing53.553.353.252.852.652.652.753.053.052.852.752.152.051.150.851.050.450.150.250.650.050.950.751.051.0
WorldServices54.153.854.153.753.853.953.753.753.353.953.353.353.051.751.551.451.451.351.751.350.752.752.853.753.3
The table shows
monthly PMI statistics
across countries and
different sectors per
country for the past two
years.
The latest data is next to
the country/sector name
at the bottom of the
page.
Brazil recovering
Italy’s permanent
recession
Improving picture in
the US
EM recovery
16. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 16
Performance and valuations of international equity markets
Year to Market Rolling 1-yr Rolling 2-yr Rolling 3-yr EPS growth
Country date Cap (USDbn)* change change change 2016E 2017E 2017E 2016E 2017E
WORLD
All Country MSCI MXWD Index 18.3% 54,471 23.8% 21.3% 19.3% 17.4 15.8 10.2% 2.4% 2.6%
Developed World MXWO Index 16.8% 44,559 23.2% 20.0% 19.8% 18.0 16.5 8.9% 2.4% 2.5%
Emerging World MXEF Index 30.6% 9,912 28.0% 32.1% 13.6% 14.1 12.0 17.7% 2.4% 2.7%
AMERICAS
US (S&P500) SPX Index 15.6% 22,847 24.1% 23.3% 27.4% 19.4 17.6 10.1% 1.9% 2.1%
US (Dow Jones Industrial) INDU Index 19.1% 6,550 31.6% 31.4% 34.1% 18.7 17.2 9.1% 2.2% 2.4%
US mid/small cap RTY Index 10.2% 2,395 28.5% 24.6% 27.6% 32.5 24.5 32.3% 1.2% 1.2%
Canada SPTSX Index 4.8% 1,892 10.4% 18.2% 10.0% 17.6 15.9 10.4% 2.8% 3.1%
Mexico MEXBOL Index 6.3% 301 3.9% 7.3% 8.2% 17.8 16.2 9.8% 2.2% 2.3%
Argentina MERVAL Index 65.4% 112 67.0% 116.9% 157.0% 16.9 12.9 30.7% 1.0%
Brazil IBOV Index 22.7% 693 20.0% 57.5% 40.4% 14.2 12.6 12.7% 2.8% 3.4%
EUROPE
Europe SXXP Index 9.5% 12,246 20.3% 4.1% 17.4% 16.4 15.1 8.9% 3.3% 3.5%
Germany DAX Index 17.2% 1,427 31.1% 22.4% 43.4% 15.1 13.8 9.4% 2.7% 3.0%
France CAC Index 13.0% 1,803 25.5% 10.2% 30.0% 16.1 15.0 7.2% 3.0% 3.3%
UK UKX Index 5.7% 2,742 12.8% 18.9% 15.3% 15.2 14.3 6.3% 4.1% 4.3%
Spain IBEX Index 10.0% 772 17.0% -1.6% 0.2% 14.5 13.2 9.3% 3.7% 4.0%
Italy FTSEMIB Index 19.1% 605 40.3% 1.6% 18.7% 15.9 13.5 17.9% 3.4% 3.7%
Switzerland SMI Index 13.4% 1,133 22.7% 3.9% 5.1% 18.8 16.4 14.4% 3.3% 3.5%
Norway OBX Index 20.9% 227 33.8% 32.8% 40.1% 17.5 15.9 10.1% 4.1% 4.0%
Sweden OMX Index 10.4% 630 19.1% 9.7% 18.3% 17.8 16.3 9.1% 3.5% 3.7%
Austria ATX Index 30.1% 112 41.1% 36.6% 54.8% 13.8 13.8 -0.1% 2.7% 3.2%
Greece ASE Index 18.7% 55 33.1% 12.8% -20.6% 14.9 15.4 -3.1% 2.2% 2.2%
EMERGING EUROPE
Hungary BUX Index 25.3% 30 33.6% 79.9% 133.7% 11.1 11.0 1.2% 2.2% 2.7%
Kazakhstan KZKAK Index 52.5% 17 60.2% 123.2% 102.8%
Ukraine PFTS Index 13.2% 2 12.0% 11.5% -30.0% 9.1
Russia RTSI$ Index -3.7% 527 14.2% 29.9% 9.1% 7.2 6.4 12.2% 5.3% 5.9%
Poland WIG Index 23.9% 375 34.6% 29.2% 19.8% 12.7 11.9 7.0% 2.3% 2.7%
Czech Rep PX Index 14.6% 55 18.1% 6.8% 9.6% 12.2 13.6 -10.3% 5.2% 5.1%
Turkey XU100 Index 43.3% 183 50.8% 36.7% 44.5% 9.2 8.1 12.4% 3.6% 4.1%
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
South Africa TOP40 Index 22.1% 657 24.0% 12.8% 21.0% 16.4 15.1 8.9% 3.0% 3.1%
Egypt Hermes Index 23.2% 63.2% 98.9% 49.0% 11.1 10.2 9.0% 2.8% 4.6%
Namibia FTN098 Index 10.1% 127 16.1% 18.0% 8.2% 10.6 10.6 0.4% 4.5% 4.6%
Nigeria NGSEINDX Index 37.5% 36 36.9% 26.6% 7.1% 18.4%
Israel TA-25 Index -3.1% 2.2% -9.9% -1.8% 12.2 11.3 8.4% 1.8% 2.0%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index -4.6% 12.7% -1.2% -28.7% 13.8 12.3 12.0% 3.6% 3.9%
Qatar DSMIndex -23.0% -19.3% -29.8% -40.9% 12.0 10.6 12.9% 4.5% 4.8%
Dubai DFMGI Index 0.3% 8.0% 2.6% -19.6% 12.1 9.6 26.1% 4.2% 4.5%
ASIA
Asia MXAPEXA Index 44.3% 3,434 40.3% 46.6% 42.0% 14.3 12.6 13.1% 2.2% 2.4%
Japan TPX Index 18.0% 5,808 31.0% 17.4% 34.4% 15.9 14.8 7.6% 1.9% 2.0%
Japan NKY Index 18.0% 3,479 31.6% 20.7% 37.4% 19.2 17.3 11.3% 1.7% 1.8%
Hong Kong HSI Index 30.0% 2,313 26.3% 25.1% 20.9% 13.0 11.9 8.7% 3.5% 3.4%
China domestic shashr Index 9.2% 5,017 8.4% -5.6% 39.7% 14.7 13.0 12.7% 2.0% 2.2%
China offshore HSCEI Index 22.7% 672 21.4% 9.2% 9.0% 8.8 8.0 9.5% 3.5% 3.8%
South Korea KOSPI Index 25.8% 1,413 28.6% 24.9% 31.7% 1.5% 1.8%
New Zealand NZSE Index 13.2% 85 15.6% 23.9% 32.6% 20.7 18.6 11.4% 4.0% 4.3%
Australia AS30 Index 5.4% 1,426 14.5% 14.4% 10.0% 16.6 15.7 5.6% 4.2% 4.4%
Pakistan KSE100 Index -14.1% 67 -1.9% 19.2% 33.9% 9.4 7.9 18.7% 5.7% 6.5%
Thailand SET50 Index 12.2% 340 16.9% 18.5% 2.8% 16.3 15.1 8.3% 2.9% 3.1%
Indonesia JCI Index 14.2% 492 12.8% 32.5% 20.2% 17.7 15.7 12.8% 2.0% 2.3%
India NIFTY Index 27.9% 1,161 24.1% 31.6% 25.6% 21.2 16.9 25.3% 1.4% 1.6%
Singapore FSSTI Index 17.3% 436 21.2% 12.2% 2.7% 15.4 14.2 8.0% 3.2% 3.3%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 6.1% 250 5.7% 3.4% -4.9% 16.3 15.3 6.1% 3.3% 3.5%
Philippines PCOMP Index 24.6% 196 17.9% 19.7% 17.8% 20.7 18.5 12.1% 1.4% 1.5%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 27.7% 94 27.4% 38.7% 42.0% 17.3 15.3 12.8% 2.4% 2.3%
Source(s): ACPI, Bloomberg Data as of: 31-Oct-2017 * Market cap for the main index
PER Dividend yield
17. MONTHLY VIEWPOINT
From the Chief Investment Officer Marco E Pabst
9th
November 2017
ACPI Investments Ltd.
Pegasus House | 37-43 Sackville Street | London W1S 3EH
T +44 (0)20 3697 9580 | F +44 (0)20 3697 9501 | E marco.pabst@acpi.com
www.acpi.com 17
Three-month outlook
Highly indebted major World economies are characterised by steady GDP growth, low inflation and re-synchronised growth patterns
whilst the lack of fiscal stimulus puts the burden on central banks, which will keep interest rates relatively low for a long time to come.
Weight
Cash We are slightly overweight cash from reductions in fixed income.
Equities
US
Valuations are high but US equities benefit from improving growth. Rising wages and a stronger dollar could provide EPS
headwinds. Positive sentiment was the missing ingredient to push stocks closer to the tops in this cycle.
Europe
Earnings growth continues to be robust and the economic backdrop of the euro zone is very strong. Interest rates will stay low for
the foreseeable future while macro risks include the situation in Spain and Germany’s fragile government.
Japan
Japanese equity markets are still amongst the cheapest globally and for as long as yields remain anchored, the market remains
attractive, although currency volatility induces substantial equity volatility in the country.
China
H shares are attractive but onshore markets are still overvalued with the country undergoing a major transition. The domestic
consumer is becoming stronger and savings are rising, helped by pro-growth fiscal support.
EM
Earnings growth is solid and valuations reasonable although political risks are present and the outlook for a stronger dollar is not
priced into EM equities.
Central
Banks
Aggregate central bank balance sheets are still expanding on a global level although the Fed started tightening already and the
ECB is expected to announce similar steps soon.
FixedIncome
DM govt
In the medium term, yields can rise further as expectations for growth and inflation improve. As sovereign bonds are very
expensive, downside risks prevail and the asset class is only suitable as a hedging instrument.
EM govt
Dollar bonds of countries with low external debt levels and low/no trade and budget deficits are interesting. Should the dollar
strengthen again, risks within EM would increase.
DM credit
Spreads have been tightening, supported by recovering commodity prices. Spreads in the US and the UK are more attractive
than in the Eurozone where rates are extremely low but likely to rise.
EM credit
We avoid issuers with substantial hard-currency debt relative to the underlying revenue mix. We would stress-test balance sheets
against any EM FX deterioration. Spreads for fundamentally strong issuers in hard currency are attractive.
Alt FI
We like alternative areas of fixed income such as peer-to-peer lending (P2P) and structured credit. P2P lending offers diversified
and uncorrelated low double-digit return streams and returns in structured credit are still attractive.
Currencies
USD
GDP growth is solid, inflation is under control and the Fed is set to continue to raise rates and reduce its balance sheet. There is
also the possibility of a successful tax reform in the US which would be short-term bullish for the USD.
EUR
The euro performed strongly this year and is expected to consolidate. Any further tapering by the ECB would also be bullish for
the euro and Eurozone assets. Short term overbought.
JPY
The BoJ has turned less aggressive recently with regards to providing additional monetary stimulus. The market is trying to find a
new direction for the yen. Inflation is positive but stable and GDP growth is also robust, which is positive for the currency.
EM
The weaker dollar has provided tailwinds for EM currencies this year. We prefer commodity exporters over commodity importers.
We like RUB, MXN, INR and avoid TRY. A sustainable dollar recovery could pose a threat to EM FX.
GBP
The GBP cheapened substantially as a result of the Brexit vote. Due to the long timeline of the Brexit process and unpredictable
political noise, uncertainty will continue, adding a substantial risk premium to the currency. Rangebound.
Commodities
Oil
The oil market is increasingly rebalancing as inventories are declining and shale production is only growing slowly while demand
is growing steadily.
Metals
Industrial metals have been supported by stronger-than-expected growth in Asia in general and China in particular where the
government managed smoothly to rebalance the economy, successfully addressing major areas of concern.
General
We believe that after its five-year (2011-2015) streak of high negative returns, the commodity complex in general could become
more attractive again, especially energy and agricultural commodities but also precious metals as a hedge against tail risks.